Transcript Document
invite to a lecture and discussion at Marxerg. 2, 1030 Wien June 20, 2007, 17:00-18:00 Sumy National Agrarian University
Rural Development in Ukraine: Tendencies, Issues, and Perspectives
by
Serhiy Moroz
Candidate of Economic Sciences Assistant Professor
Sumy National Agrarian University
The Role of the Agricultural Sector in the Economy of Ukraine (%) 50 40 19,0 14,9 30 20 19,6 24,0 17,0 22,4 21,8 23,0 10 8,1 16,3 3,6 9,4 16,3 14,6 24,8 11,2 5,0 25,4 13,3 5,2 12,2 20,3 11,8 4,2 10,8 19,7 10,6 4,5 9,5 19,2 12,6 5,4 0 1991 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 20 15 10 5 0
Share of agriculture in total employment (the left scale) Share of investment in agriculture in total investment (the left scale) Share of the agro-food export in total exports (the left scale) Share of agriculture in GDP (the right scale) Sumy National Agrarian University
40000 Dynamics of the Rural Population in Ukraine 32,2 32,2 32,6 32,8 32,7 32,5 32,3 32,1 % 33 30000 28845 28864 28739 28651 28619 28612 28957 28585 30 20000 16760 16529 15972 15883 15675 15476 15272 15052 10000 27 0 1991 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003
The rural population, thousands (the left scale) The number of rural settlements (the left scale) Rural population, % of total (the right scale)
2004 2005 24
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The Birth, Death, and Growth Rates of the Population in Ukraine (per 1000 inhabitants) 1990 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2005 (+,-) to 1990 Number of newborns: - Urban areas - Rural areas Number of deceased: - Urban areas - Rural areas The overall population growth
:
- Urban areas - Rural areas 12,7 12,7 8,8 11,1 7,2 9,2 7,2 8,7 7,7 9,0 8,3 9,1 8,9 9,3 8,9 9,4 10,2 16,1 13,6 19,1 13,8 18,8 13,8 18,6 14,0 19,1 14,3 19,6 14,4 19,6 14,8 20,5 2,5 -3,4 -4,8 -8,0 -6,6 -9,6 -6,6 -9,9 -6,3 -10,1 -6,0 -10,5 -5,5 -10,3 -5,9 -11,1 -3,8 -3,3 +4,6 +4,4 -8,4 -7,7
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Demographic Information about the Rural Resident Population (thousands) Rural population Rural population by age: - under working age - at working age* - over working age Rural population structure (%): - under working age - at working age* - over working age 1991 3751,6 8305,0 4838,4 22,2 49,2 28,6 1995 1999 16895,0 16537,4 15950,2 3625,9 8091,0 4820,5 21,9 48,9 29,1 3328,0 7997,7 4624,5 20,9 50,1 29,0 2002 3076,2 8210,3 4456,1 19,5 52,2 28,3 2005 15742,6 15127,1 2753,7 8222,9 4150,5 18,2 54,4 27,4 2005 as % of 1991 89,5 73,4 99,0 85,8 -4,0 +5,2 -1,2
* men: 16-59; women: 16-54.
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Quantitative Changes in Employment of Rural Residents (at the beginning of the year) % 150 133,4 136,3 11,9 times 14 12 120 10 86,9 90 82,0 74,0 77,2 69,4 66,6 66,9 65,7 70,4 8 60 3,8 49,5 6 2,6 4 30 1,2 2 0 0 1996 to 1991 2001 to 1996 2005 to 2001 2005 to 1991
The total rural population employed in rural and urban areas (the left scale) Rural residents employed in urban areas (the left scale) Rural residents employed outside their rural settlements (the left scale) Rural residents employed only in household plots, times (the right scale) Sumy National Agrarian University
15,2% The Structure of Rural Population Employed in the Place of Residence, by Type of Economic Activity, 2005 (%) 6,3% 2,6% 4,9% 50,6% 2,9% 3,7% 6,7% 5,0%
Agriculture Industry Transport and communication Education Collective, public, and private services
2,1%
Forestry Wholesale and retail sales, repair services State government Healthcare and social assistance Others Sumy National Agrarian University
The Level of Unemployment in Ukraine on the Methodology of the International Labor Organization (the age group 15-70, %) 20 14,3 13,7 16 12,6 11,6 9,9 12 8,7 7,8 8 9,1 4 6,3 6,8 7,1 6,6 8,4 5,7 0 1999 2000 2001
The rural population
2002 2003 2004 2005
The urban population Sumy National Agrarian University
Dynamics of Gross Agricultural Output, by Farm Type (in 2000 comparable prices, 1990 = 100%) % 150 129,1 138,5 136,3 125,3 126,8 120,0 120 105,8 90 64,9 53,3 60 49,4 30 27,9 0 1995 2000
Agricultural enterprises
58,8 33,5 59,5 33,0 52,9 24,8 2001 2002
Household plots
2003 63,4 34,8 63,3 35,5 2004 2005
All farm types Sumy National Agrarian University
The Structure of Gross Agricultural Output, by Farm Type 100% 80% 27,5 44,9 62,0 58,7 59,8 66,0 60,2 59,3 60% 40% 72,5 55,1 20% 38,0 41,3 40,2 34,0 39,8 40,7 0% 1990 1995 2000 2001
Agricultural enterprises
2002 2003
Household plots
2004 2005
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The Share of Households with Average per Capita Monthly Expenses below the Living Wage* (%) 100 80 60 40 82,6 79,1 87,0 80,6 89,2 80,4 84,9 71,9 75,0 61,0 65,2 50,4 20 0 2000 2001
Rural areas
2002 2003 2004
Urban areas
2005
* the 4th quarter of 2000 – 270.1 UAH; 2001 – 311.3 UAH; 2002, 2003, and the 1st quarter of 2004 – 342.0 UAH; the 2nd quarter – the 4th quarter of 2004 – 362.23 UAH; 2005 – 423.0 UAH.
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100 80 60 40 20 0 Housing Amenities in Urban and Rural Areas in Ukraine (%) Urban households Rural households 71,5 69,7 75,6 74,3 76,1 74,7 76,2 74,8 76,3 75,0 76,6 75,4 35 28 21 14 7 0 15,2 9,5 17,9 13,2 13,7 18,2 18,7 14,2 19,1 14,7 1995 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Sewer systems Running water 1995 2001 2002 Sewer systems 20,0 15,7 2003 2004 2005 Running water 100 80 60 40 20 0 80,2 69,5 81,8 81,9 73,4 73,6 81,8 73,8 82,0 73,9 81,8 74,2 1995 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Central heating Natural gas 100 80 60 40 20 11,2 79,4 83,2 19,8 83,4 20,5 83,5 21,4 83,8 22,2 84,1 24,4 0 1995 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Central heating Natural gas
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The Share of Rural Settlements with Social Infrastructure Objects (%) Pre-school organizations Schools Club-houses Libraries Hospitals Outpatient health facilities Retail shops Canteens Consumer service establishments 1990 44,1 52,4 70,8 64,8 5,7 6,5 209,7 63,4 5,2 1995 37,8 52,8 68,5 62,4 4,9 6,2 167,1 37,8 0,7 2000 31,1 52,4 61,8 54,8 3,1 8,4 104,0 35,6 0,3 2005 29,4 49,2 58,8 52,9 2,7 10,7 66,5 28,4 1,1 2005 (+,-) to 1990 -14,7 -3,2 -12,0 -11,9 -3,0 +4,2 -143,2 -35,0 -4,1
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The Share of Social Infrastructure Facilities Needed Capital Repairs, 2005 (%) Consumer service establishments Outpatient health facilities Hospitals Libraries Club-houses Schools Pre-school organizations 0 10 23,3 21,8 21,6 28,5 20 23,0 26,9 30 40 42,1 50
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The Main Directions of the Agricultural Reform Program in Ukraine Ensuring the real rights of landowners for land usage The Agricultural Reform Program in Ukraine The creation of a legal framework for private ownership of agricultural land and assets The improvement of efficiency in the agricultural sector based on the transformation of collective and state farms to market-oriented private agricultural enterprises
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Structure of Agricultural Land, by Farm Type Agricultural land, total - agricultural enterprises 42,0 1990 mln. ha % 100,0 38,7 92,1 - individuals including household plots 2,7 2,5 6,4 6,0 41,9 1995 mln. ha % 100,0 41,9 2000 mln. ha % 100,0 41,8 2005 mln. ha % 100,0 2005 as % of 1990 99,5 35,2 5,6 3,9 84,0 13,4 9,3 29,9 8,5 4,3 71,4 20,3 10,3 22,1 14,9 4,7 52,9 35,6 11,2 57,1 5,5 times 188,0
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Selected Economic Indicators of Agricultural Enterprises 1995 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2005 (+,-) to 1995 Profit (million UAH) 748,1 834,1 -330,8 -4,6 2689,3 3584,8 +2836,7 The profitability rate (%): - of all economic activities - of crop production - of animal husbandry The share of unprofitable agricultural enterprises (%) Losses into an average statistical unprofitable agricultural enterprise (thousand UAH) 10,6 55,5 -16,5 30,2 77,3 5,0 35,8 -6,6 43,9 228,7 -1,9 22,3 -19,8 53,8 303,4 -0,03 41,7 -18,8 50,5 382,1 12,6 20,3 -11,3 33,8 308,6 14,6 7,9 5,0 36,2 356,8 +4,0 -47,6 +21,5 +6,0 +279,5
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Budget Expenditures to Agriculture (million UAH) 2002 352,0 2003 167,4 2004 2005 1070,4 1527,8 2005 as % of 2002 4,3 times Support measures from the "amber box" including: - reduction of costs of commercial credit - financial support of small private farms - financial support of crop and livestock production - support of horticulture, wine grape and hops production - partial compensation of costs of agricultural machinery and fertilizers - other expenditures 119,6 4,5 73,9 118,1 35,9 0,0 13,4 39,3 2,0 5,0 37,8 69,9 141,5 5,1 421,0 109,1 393,7 0,0 350,0 27,3 689,5 175,0 270,0 16,0 292,6 6,1 times 9,3 times 148,2 7,5 times -
Source: Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting of Ukraine.
Continued on the next page Sumy National Agrarian University
Budget Expenditures to Agriculture (continued) 2002 2003 2004 2005 1050,1 2655,1 1905,8 2426,2 2005 as % of 2002 231,0 Support measures from the "green box" including: - research and education - pest and disease control - crop selection and livestock breeding - inspection services related to food quality and safety - training and qualification improvements - land reform - rural infrastructure - environmental protection - other expenditures Total budget expenditures 146,6 37,2 25,6 295,1 140,4 238,2 61,8 86,3 152,7 113,0 131,4 224,0 265,1 385,4 0,2 7,9 359,4 458,8 3,6 25,4 446,9 603,1 1,8 15,6 532,9 881,5 5,0 17,0 8,9 173,2 0,7 1133,5 24,4 513,2 26,5 494,9 1402,1 2822,5 2976,2 3954,0 77,1 3,5 times 8,8 times 201,0 228,7 25,0 times 215,2 297,8 285,7 282,0
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The Main Directions of Complex Development of Rural Territories Ensuring of reliable maintenance of social infrastructure The creation by the State of the system to regulate demographic processes in rural regions Assistance to income growth of the rural population The directions of complex development of rural territories The creation of conditions for the preservation and development of small, remote, and depression rural settlements The reduction of the gap in living conditions between urban and rural areas The promotion of rural employment growth on the basis of development of state support for the stimulation of entrepreneurship
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General Measures for Stabilization of the Agricultural Sector (the 1 st Resumption point of view) of activities of agricultural cooperative institutions Development of market infrastructure Implementation of the state system for the estimation and the control of branches of the Ukrainian economy
•
Elaboration and approval of a complex program for support and development of rural areas
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Comparative Evaluation of Approaches for Development of Rural Areas in Ukraine THE CURRENT APPROACH THE NEW APPROACH Rural regions can resolve their social and economic problems on the basis of the development of agricultural production Rural territories are multi-functional systems which demographic, consist economic, of ecological, social, and other components. The development of rural territories should be based on state target programs Direct budget transfers and subsidies mainly for support of certain agricultural products Use of limited budget resources for solutions of actual problems of rural territories The primary goal: Increase of the volume and the efficiency of agricultural production The primary goal: Development of rural territories and sustainable agriculture through the improvement of competitiveness and diversification of the rural economy
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Main Directions of Rural Development Policy in Ukraine (the 2 nd point of view) Increase of agricultural productivity and competitiveness through the establishment of a favorable investment environment and improvement of the quality of human capital Introduction of measures to improve the quality of rural life and to increase rural incomes Directions of rural development policy Development of sustainable agriculture in order to protect the natural environment and to preserve the rural landscapes Implementation of programs for the development of less favored areas
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Primary Goals of the Rural Development Strategy
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Poverty reduction in rural areas
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Diversification of the agricultural production
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Development of non-farm employment opportunities in rural regions
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Cooperation and economic integration of rural households
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Improvement of social and physical infrastructure
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Increase ecological sustainability of production activities in rural territories
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Preservation and protection of rural landscapes
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Preparation of rural areas for integration of Ukraine into the global economy
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Directions for Development of Rural Human Capital Formation of a national extension service Implementation of a program similar to LEADER+ Human capital Introduction of measures to improve the education level in rural areas
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Proposed Components of the Agricultural Strategy in Ukraine
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Development of a proper legal framework to establish predictable and transparent rules in the agricultural market
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Introduction of economic mechanisms to complete farm restructuring, to improve the competitiveness of agricultural products, and to attract investments
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Formation of the agricultural credit system
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Promotion of cooperation between agricultural producers
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Implementation of other essential components to accelerate economic reforms in agriculture
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Thank you for your attention
Contact: Serhiy Moroz 160, Kirov St.
Sumy, 40021 Ukraine [email protected]
Sumy National Agrarian University