Predictors of Genocide - Genocide Watch Home Page

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The Ten Stages of Genocide
Dr. Gregory Stanton
Genocide Watch
© 2013 Gregory Stanton
What is Genocide?

The crime of genocide is defined in
international law in the Convention on
the Prevention and Punishment of
Genocide, adopted by the UN in 1948.

"Article II: In the present Convention,
genocide means any of the following acts
committed with intent to destroy, in whole
or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or
religious group, as such:
(a) Killing members of the group;
(b) Causing serious bodily or mental harm
to members of the group;
(c) Deliberately inflicting on the group
conditions of life calculated to bring about
its physical destruction in whole or in part;
(d) Imposing measures intended to prevent
births within the group;
(e) Forcibly transferring children of the
group to another group.
Article III: The following acts shall be
punishable:
(a) Genocide;
(b) Conspiracy to commit genocide;
(c) Direct and public incitement to
commit genocide;
(d) Attempt to commit genocide;
(e) Complicity in genocide.
•Raphael Lemkin, father of the Genocide
Convention, would also have protected
economic, political, social, and cultural
groups.
•The Soviet Union, its satellites, and some
Latin American countries eliminated these
groups from protection by the Convention.
•Persecuting or killing these other groups
remain crimes against humanity.
Genocide
succeeds when state
sovereignty blocks the international
responsibility to protect citizens of
genocidal states.
The
UN represents states, not peoples,
and it is usually paralyzed by the Perm5 veto.
Since
founding of UN:
Over 55 genocides and politicides
Over 70 million dead
Prevention requires:
1. Early
warning
2. Rapid
response
3. Courts for
accountability
Genocide continues due to:
•Lack of authoritative international
institutions to predict it
•Lack of ready rapid response forces to stop it
UNAMIR peacekeeper in Rwanda, April 1994
Genocide continues due to:
•Lack of political will to peacefully prevent it
and to forcefully intervene to stop it
UN Security Council votes to withdraw
UNAMIR troops from Rwanda, April 1994
The result has been genocide again and again.
Memorial to 800,000 Rwandans murdered,
April – July, 1994
The 10 Stages of Genocide



Understanding the genocidal process is one of the most
important steps in preventing future genocides.
The Eight Stages of Genocide were first outlined by Dr.
Greg Stanton, Department of State: 1996. In 2012,
Stanton added two stages to refine the model.
The first seven stages are Early Warnings:
 Classification
 Symbolization
 Discrimination
 Dehumanization
 Organization
 Polarization
 Preparation
Stage 1: Classification

“Us versus them”

Distinguish by nationality, ethnicity, race, or religion
(Genocide Convention) or by class (Marx) or politics.

Bipolar societies (Rwanda) most likely to have
genocide because no way for classifications to fade
away through inter-marriage.

Classification is a primary method of dividing
society and creating a power struggle between
groups.
Stage 1: Classification (Rwanda)
Belgian colonialists believed Tutsis were a naturally
superior nobility, descended from the Israelite tribe of
Ham.
Belgians distinguished between Hutus and Tutsis
by nose size, height & eye type. Another indicator
to distinguish Hutu farmers from Tutsi pastoralists
was the number of cattle owned.
Prevention:
Transcend Classification

Promote common identities (national,
religious, human.)

Use common languages (Swahili in
Tanzania, science, music, sports.)

Actively oppose racist and divisive
politicians and parties.
Stage 2: Symbolization
 Names: German
v. Jew; Hutu v. Tutsi v. Twa.
 Languages: Turkish v. Armenian; Urdu v. Bengali
Clothing: Arab v. Kurdish, German v. Herero.
Group uniforms: Self- adopted: Swastika armbands
Colors and religious symbols:
•Yellow star for Jews
•Blue checked scarf Eastern Zone in Cambodia
Symbolization (Cambodia)



People in the
Eastern Zone, near
Vietnam, were
accused of having
“Khmer bodies, but
Vietnamese heads.”
They were deported
to other areas to be
worked to death.
They were marked
with a blue and
white checked scarf
(Kroma)
Stage 2: Symbolization (Rwanda)
“Ethnicity” was noted on ID cards by Belgian Authorities in 1933.
Tutsis were given preference to education programs and priesthood.
.
1959 independence:,preferences reversed. Hutus favored.
ID cards used to distinguish Tutsis from Hutus in 1994 genocide.
Symbolization (Nazi Germany)
Nazis required the yellow Star of David emblem to
be worn by nearly all Jews in Nazi-occupied Europe
by 1941. Bulgaria and Denmark resisted.
Prevention: Symbolization



Get ethnic, religious, racial, and
national identities removed from ID
cards, passports.
Protest imposition of marking symbols
on targeted groups (yellow cloth on
Hindus in Taliban Afghanistan).
Protest negative or racist words for
groups (“niggers, kaffirs,” etc.) Work to
make them culturally unacceptable.
Stage 3: Discrimination




Segregation; apartheid: Separate groups
in housing, schools, transport, and eating
places.
Prohibit voting by members of victim
group.
Fire group from professions. [Nazis fired
Jew professors & civil servants 1933.]
Require “passes” to travel. Hunt and
arrest “undocumented aliens.”
Stage 3: Discrimination
Boycott businesses of victims
Nazis bar entrance to Jewish business
Prevention of Discrimination




Take discriminatory categories off ID cards.
Outlaw discrimination based on race, religion,
ethnicity, nationality, gender; class; party. [Civil
rights act of 1964]
Pass laws protecting universal voting rights.
[19th Amendment (women); 1924 Indian
Citizenship Act; 1966 Voting Rights Act]
Make anti-discrimination laws enforceable in
independent courts by private parties.
Stage 4: Dehumanization

One group denies the humanity of another group, and
makes the victim group seem subhuman.
Dehumanization overcomes the normal human
revulsion against murder.
Der Stürmer Nazi Newspaper:
“The Blood Flows; The Jew Grins”
.

Kangura Newspaper, Rwanda:
“The Solution for Tutsi
Cockroaches”
Stage 4: Dehumanization

Blame staged
attacks on targeted
“traitors.”
The Reichstag fire
was blamed on
Jewish Communists
in 1933.

Attack cultural
centers of targeted
groups.
Kristalnacht 1938:
synagogues were
burned.
Tactics of Dehumanization

Hate propaganda in speeches, print and on hate
radio.

Victim group is described as animals, vermin,
and diseases. Hate radio, Rwandan genocide,
1994: “Kill the cockroaches.” “If this disease is
not treated immediately, it will destroy all the
Hutu.”

Superiority of “us”; inferiority of the “other.”

Euphemisms hide horror: “ethnic cleansing,”
or “purification.”
Prevention of Dehumanization

Vigorously protest use of dehumanizing
words that refer to people as “filth,”
“vermin,” animals or diseases. Deny people
using such words visas and freeze their
foreign assets and contributions.
 Prosecute hate crimes and
incitements to commit genocide.
 Jam or shut down hate radio and
television stations where there is
danger of genocide.
Prevention: Humanization
Promote positive prevention by humanizing the
“others”:
 Provide programs for tolerance to radio, TV,
and newspapers.
 Enlist religious and political leaders to speak
out and educate for tolerance.
 Organize inter-ethnic, interfaith, and interracial groups to work against hatred.
 Build local anti-genocide alliances.
Stage 5: Organization



Genocide is a group crime, so must be organized.
The state usually organizes, arms and financially supports the
groups that conduct the genocidal massacres. (State
organization is not a legal requirement --Indian partition.)
Plans are made by elites for a “final solution.”
Stage 5: Organization (Rwanda)

“Hutu Power” elites
armed youth militias
called Interahamwe
("Those Who Stand
Together”).

Government and Hutu
Power businessmen
provided militias with
500,000 machetes and
training camps to
“protect their villages”
by exterminating every
Tutsi.
Prevention: Organization



Treat genocidal groups as the
organized crime groups they are. Make
membership in them illegal and
demand that their leaders be arrested.
Deny visas to leaders of hate groups
and freeze their foreign assets.
Impose arms embargoes on hate
groups and governments supporting
ethnic or religious hatred. Create
commissions to enforce such arms
embargoes and arrest arms merchants.
Stage 6: Polarization



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Extremists drive groups apart.
Hate groups broadcast and print polarizing propaganda.
Laws are passed that forbid intermarriage or social
interaction.
Moderates are silenced, intimidated, and assassinated.
•Public
demonstrations were
organized against
Jewish merchants.
• Moderate German
dissenters were the
first to be arrested
and sent to
concentration camps.
Prevention: De-polarization

Vigorously protest laws or policies that segregate or
marginalize groups, or that deprive whole groups of
citizenship rights. [Nazi Nuremberg Laws; Apartheid
“bantustans”; “Ivoirization.]

Physically protect moderate leaders, by use of
armed guards and armored vehicles. [Burundi]

Demand the release of moderate leaders if they are
arrested. Demand and conduct investigations if they
are murdered. [Amnesty International]

Oppose coups d’état by extremists.
Stage 7: Preparation:
Planning (Conspiracy)
Wannsee House, Berlin where Nazi leaders, Heydrich &
Eichmann planned “the Final Solution to the Jewish
Question.” 20 January 1942
Stage 7: Preparation
Identification (Nazi Germany)
Force members of victim groups to wear
identifying symbols.
Stage 7: Preparation


Nazis required
the yellow Star of
David emblem to
be worn by nearly
all Jews in Nazioccupied Europe
by 1941.
Bulgaria and
Denmark
resisted.
Stage 7: Preparation
Military buildup

Build military
machine, train
militias, stockpile
weapons, and
distribute them to
killers.
Prevention: Preparation




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With evidence of arms shipments and militia
training, and planned killings, a Genocide
Alert™ should be declared.
UN Security Council should warn it will act
only if it really intends to take forceful action.
World leaders must warn potential
perpetrators they will be tried for their
crimes.
Humanitarian relief should be prepared.
Regional military intervention forces should
be organized, including logistics and
financing.
Stage 8: Persecution

Separate victims
because of their
ethnic or
religious identity.

Expropriate
property of victim
group.
Stage 8: Persecution


Forcibly displace
victims from their
homes.
Force them into
ghettos – Poland
1939 – 1942 or
deserts Armenia
1915; Darfur 2003
Stage 9: Extermination
(Genocide, Politicide, Mass Murder)


Extermination begins,
and becomes the
mass killing legally
called "genocide" or
“politicide.”
Most genocide is
committed by
governments.
Einsatzgrupen: Nazi Killing Squads
Extermination (Genocide)

Although most genocide
is sponsored and
financed by the state, the
armed forces often work
with local militias.
Rwandan militia killing squads
Nazi killing squad working with
local militia
Extermination (Genocide)
•The killing is
“extermination” to
the killers because
they do not believe
the victims are fully
human. They are
“cleansing” the
society of impurities,
disease, animals,
vermin,
“cockroaches,” or
enemies.
Roma (Gypsies) in a
Nazi death camp
Stage 9: Extermination
Jewish women massacred , Mizocz, Ukraine 1942
Stage 9: Extermination
SS finishing massacre, Mizocz, Ukraine, 1942
Stage 9:
Extermination
SS
Einsatzgrupen
Commando
shoots
last Jew left
alive in Vinica,
Ukraine, 1942
Stage 9: Extermination:
Mechanized Massacre



Build extermination
camps – AuschwitzBirkenau .
Call them “labor
camps.”
Transport victims to
camps, kill, and
cremate them.
Stage 9: Extermination
Buchenwald Death Camp Crematoria
Tuol Sleng (S-21), Cambodia
Choeung Ek Mass Grave
Photos © Gregory Stanton 1980
Extermination:
How to Stop the Genocide



Intervention by a regional army should be
organized to drive the genocidists out of
power.
The UN Security Council should authorize
armed intervention by regional military
forces under Chapter Seven of the UN
Charter.
If UN Security Council is paralyzed, the UN
General Assembly or regional forces may
authorize intervention. UNGA Res. 377 (1950)
Intervention to Stop Genocide
 The
Mandate must include protection
of civilians and humanitarian workers
and a No Fly Zone.
 The Rules of Engagement must
include prevention of killing not just
in self-defense, but of all civilians.
 The major military powers must
provide leadership, logistics, airlift,
communications, and financing.
Stage 10: Denial




Denial occurs during and after genocide.
Continuing denial triples probability of
further genocide.
Denial extends crime of genocide to future
generations of victims. It is a continuation
of the intent to destroy the group.
The tactics of denial are predictable.
Stage 10: Tactics of Denial
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Attack the truth tellers. They committed crimes.
Deny or minimize the evidence or numbers.
Deny genocidal intent. Blame natural forces.
Blame civil or international war.
Blame the victims – a disloyal minority.
Deny facts fit legal definition of genocide.
Claim of genocide would harm “peace process.”
Claim of genocide would harm current interests.
Prevention of Denial
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Arrest and try perpetrators of genocide in
international, domestic, or mixed courts.
Create truth commissions to document the facts
about the genocide and publish them.
Hold public truth and reconciliation forums for
neighbors to confess and apologize.
Incorporate education about the genocide in the
curriculum of every secondary school.
Make films and radio programs for the public.
Prevention needs Political Will

We need an international mass movement to end
genocide.
 Organize civil society and human rights groups.
 Mobilize religious leaders of churches, mosques,
synagogues, and temples.
 Put genocide education in curricula of every
secondary school and university in the world.
 Hold political leaders accountable. If they fail to
act to stop genocide, vote them out of office.
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