State of the Data: Migration, Fuel Costs, Community Viability Steve Colt Institute of Social and Economic Research University of Alaska Anchorage in partnership with Alaska Native Policy Center Joan Kane, Executive Director Full report:

www.iser.uaa.alaska.edu/Home/ResearchAreas/fuelcosts.html

Denali Commission  28 Feb 2008  Juneau

Initial Research Questions

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Has migration accelerated?

If so, who is moving, to where, and why?

If so, are fuel costs a major driver?

What other factors may be causing migration?

How are fuel costs affecting subsistence participation?

How are fuel costs affecting the viability of local governments, utilities, and local businesses?

Are there major factors of employment?

– other than fuel costs – affecting community viability and migration, such as lack Do regional patterns emerge? Can data be collected and reported regionally?

Topics for Today

Migration flows Reasons for migration – Role of fuel costs – Other factors Opportunities for better data and better understanding ...a research memorandum and digital - Web literature archive are also being prepared

Sources

Major primary data sources: – U.S. Census – DOLWD (population, migration), DHHS (births, deaths) – ISER Survey of Living Conditions in the Arctic (SLiCA): 2003; n=663 Natives; North Slope, Nana, Bering Straits regions) – First Alaskans Institute Attitudinal Survey (2007; n=902: 600 Natives + 302-non-Native; statewide) Literature: 40+ papers circa 1960-present, most of which use the same data sources

SLiCA survey region

Resource booms fueled statewide growth and migration Gold Salmon boom shows does not always follow WW2 / Military economic boom Pulses of migration shown in yellow source: ISER, Census, DOL Pipeline Oil money

Net Migration – Statewide 1980-2007 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 -5000 1980 -10000 -15000 -20000 -25000 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 source: AK DOL (pfd)

Net Migration: Rural Census Areas 1980-2007 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 -1,000 -2,000 -3,000 -4,000 -5,000 -6,000 Molly Hootch Coast Guard - Kodiak Adak Closed ?? - interpret with caution source: AK DOL (pfd)

Declining births may turn migration into absolute population decline 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 -1,000 -2,000 -3,000 -4,000 -5,000 -6,000 Molly Hootch Coast Guard - Kodiak Net migration – rural AK Adak Closed Births source: DOL (pfd); DHHS births by mother’s place of residence – rural AK Revenue sharing ends

Wade-Hampton Census Area: More people born than leaving 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 -100 -150 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 Births People leaving source: DOL (pfd); DHHS births by mother’s place of residence

Overall, no long-term acceleration in migration However, Rates vary dramatically across communities Smallest communities are losing population – Of communities with 100 or fewer people in 2000, two-thirds have lost population. – This has been going on for a long time (eg 1800s to present) (Alonso & Rust 1976)

Cumulative net migration during 2000-2007 % of 2000 pop., by census area 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30%

Age structure of 21 of Alaska’s smallest communities, year 2000 80 and up 70 to 79 60 to 69 50 to 59 40 to 49 30 to 39 20 to 29 10 to 19 0 to 9 Females Males 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2% 4% 6% Percent of total population, 2000 source: US Census 2000 8% 10% 12%

Alaska age structure - 2000

80 and up 70 to 79 60 to 69 50 to 59 40 to 49 30 to 39 20 to 29 10 to 19 0 to 9 Females Males 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% Percent of total population, 2000

Why are people moving?

Fuel costs Other factors

Primary energy consumption per Alaskan barrels oil per person per year

Primary Energy Inputs per Alaskan

70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Alaska Gas Network PCE places Other Wood and all other Other petroleum Gasoline Diesel Hydro Coal Natural Gas

Effect of recent fuel price run-up......

Average person in a PCE community uses 1,000 gal of diesel & gasoline Average price increase = $2.00/gal Arithmetic: $2,000 -- 8,000 increase per household per year – (includes electricity, community buildings) source: ISER/Colt “Energy Flow in Alaska 2005”

Why did you move?

FAI survey open-ended:

Why did you move away from your rural community? What motivated you to go live somewhere else?

Alaska Native responde nts n=189 Non natives n=47

Work-related reasons Family Other opportunities New experiences Other needs source: FAI Attitudinal Survey (2007) 58% 22% 15% 12% 5% 67% 5% 17% 23% 5%

What would it take for you to return?

(open-ended)

What, if anything, would it take for you to move back to your rural community? What would prompt you to go back to live there?

Nothing / Don’t Know Opportunities Family Other needs

Alaska Native respondents n=113

67% 19% 4% 7%

Non natives n=28

76% 7% 14% 4% source: FAI Attitudinal Survey (2007)

Broadly speaking,

Neither FAI nor SLiCA respondents mention fuel costs in open-ended questions Social factors / “Gorillas in the Room” – Alcohol – Public safety – Domestic violence

Example to ponder: North Slope

200 100 0 -100 -200 -300 -400 300 high wages, low fuel costs (subsidized), police officers, subsistence opportunities – People still leave

Data Opportunities: secondary data DOL migration data based on PFD zip codes – continue net migration by census area – add net migration by age-sex – add origin-destination – add net migration by community

Opportunities: new primary data

Panel study of ANCSA shareholders – Sample frame exists – Attrition would be minimized – provides Alaska-specific data (subsistence, quality of life...) Person 1 Person 2 Person 3 : :

etc.

Year 1 data Year 1 data Year 1 data Year 5 data Year 5 data Year 5 data Year 10 data Year 10 data Year 10 data ....

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Primary Data

ANCSA shareholder survey does not pick up young people; hence, Survey of rural college students, rural high school students (tough), or similar subgroup – FAI did pilot survey at AFN youth conference

Other opportunities

Comprehensive housing survey Omnibus social survey – characteristics – behavior – expenditures – attitudes

Thank You!

www.iser.uaa.alaska.edu

www.firstalaskans.org