Transcript МОНГОЛ УЛСЫН ХӨДӨӨ АЖ АХУЙН САЛБАРЫН ИРЭ

Agricultural sector of Mongolia:
future and further trends
Dr. L.Erkhembayar, Adviser to the President of Mongolia
Yu.Batzorig, Expert, NSO
December 15, 2014
CONTENT
CURRENT STATE OF THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR:
•
Horse Raising
•
Camel Raising
•
Cattle Farming
•
Sheep Farming
•
Goat Farming
•
Pig Raising
•
Poultry
•
Crop production
The future trends of the development of agricultural sector of
Mongolia are:
- conserve natural environment,
- upgrade economic returns of the sector, and
- strengthen its competitiveness at international markets
CURRENT STATE OF THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
Share of Agricultural Sector in GDP, %
20.0
20.0
19.8
18.5
17.7
18.4
19.2
17.9
14.3
15.0
14.2
14.5
2012
2013
12.3
10.0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Indicators
GDP, billion MNT
Agriculture, forestry and fishery
Livestock
Crop
Forestry, hunting and fishery
Share of agriculture in national budget expenditures
2009
2010
2011
2011
13 173.8
1 357.9
1 238.8
98.3
20.9
2012
16 688.4
1 878.8
1 701.7
137.3
39.8
2013
19 118.0
2 603.6
2 321.5
275.8
6.3
5.0
3.7
3.0
Although agriculture production has doubled over the last years, its share in GDP has
been declining due to the growth in mining sector
CURRENT STATE OF THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
Livestock Sector
Herd size, ‘000 head
50000.0
45000.0
40000.0
40263.8
33568.9
36335.8
43288.5
35000.0
40920.9
30398.8
30000.0
25000.0
45144.3
44023.9
26075.3
34803.0
25427.7
30227.5
32729.5
28027.3
20000.0
23897.6
Total livestock outputs - 2321.5
billion MNT
15000.0
10000.0
5000.0
0.0
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Challenges: Livestock sector remains unstable, dependent on the natural conditions and under
high risks
FUTURE OF LIVESTOCK SECTOR
Horse Rearing
Horses, ‘000 head
3 500.0
3 000.0
3163.3
2893.2
2648.4
3059.1
2770.5
2 500.0
2408.9
2800.0
2619.4
2239.5
2660.8 2191.8
1968.9
2029.1
2 000.0
1988.9
1 500.0
2005.3
2221.3
2112.9
2330.4
2114.8
2186.9
1920.3
1 000.0
500.0
0.0
1 994 1 995 1 996 1 997 1 998 1 999 2 000 2 001 2 002 2 003 2 004 2 005 2 006 2 007 2 008 2 009 2 010 2 011 2 012 2 013 2014*
* Expected performance
Existing problems:
• This sector produces 17 kg meat per head at the beginning of the year, which is twice less than of
that of sheep husbandry
• Suspicious to degrade pasture
• Adult male (5 and more years) horses share over 25% /economically less profitable/.
FUTURE OF LIVESTOCK SECTOR
Future of horse rearing
• Maintain the herd size below 2 million head by imposing differentiated grazing fee
• The pasture freed out this, to be allocated to cattle and sheep grazing
• The horse herd size will be reduced by 800.0 thousand head in favor of sheep to grow by
5.6 mln head. This would lead to produce 20.0 thousand mutton and increase sale income
100.0 billion MNT
Directions of exploitation:
• Riding and racing
• Meat production
• Set up zone for airag making and use for therapeutic purposes
• Increase the share of females of breeding age up to 40.0%
As of 2013, females
share 30%
FUTURE OF LIVESTOCK SECTOR
Camel Rearing
Camels, ‘000 head
400.0
366.1
357.9
356.5
322.9
350.0
300.0
250.0
200.0
367.5
355.4
305.8
355.6
256.6
253.0
285.2
256.7
254.2
269.6
266.4
253.5
260.6
321.5
277.0
280.1
150.0
100.0
50.0
0.0
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Problems encountering:
• The number of camels has been reduced
• The share of female camels remains low
• The number of offspring per 100 breeding females is fewer
• Low price of meat and wool of camels
FUTURE OF LIVESTOCK SECTOR
Future Trends of Camel Rearing
• Create effective economic and incentive mechanisms for growing camel herd size
• Raise the share of female stock to 35-40%
• Introduce deep processing of camel wool to increase value of products by 10.0
billion MNT
FUTURE OF LIVESTOCK SECTOR
Cattle Farming
Cattle, ‘000 head
4500
3824.8
4000
3500
3612.7
3317.1
3725.8
2909.5
3476.2
3000
2500 3005.2
2425.8
3097.6
2069.6
1792.8
2000
1963.6
1884.3
2339.7
2584.6
2503.4
2167.9
1500
2599.3
2176.0
1841.6
1000
500
0
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Dependent on harsh natural and climatic factors and unstable herd growth
FUTURE OF LIVESTOCK SECTOR
Meat export, tons
30000.0
26763.4
25000.0
18039.0
20000.0
15000.0
11699.0
11029.1
10347.5
10166.0
10000.0
3102.3
5000.0
3001.0
1702.2
0.0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014 I-X
The failure to meet technological and veterinary and sanitary requirements results in
decline of beef export every year. No beef export to other countries other than pre-Ural
mountain range regions of Russia made.
FUTURE OF LIVESTOCK SECTOR
Cattle Farming
Key problems:
• Dependent on harsh natural and climatic factors and unstable herd growth
• No reliable feed supply in existence
• Unsatisfactory health and breeding service
• Productivity per head is low /35 kg beef per head is 2.5-3.0 folds less than in developed
countries /
• In the crop areas, the breed quality and productivity of cattle populations remains low
• Beef export declines year after year
FUTURE OF LIVESTOCK SECTOR
Future trends of cattle farming
• Set up export-oriented beef zone that:
 covers Tuv, Selenge, Bulgan, Khentii and Dornod aimags
 In other aimags, indigenous cattle are bred purely and crossed with other breeds
 Breeds such as Angus and Limousine are used as improvers
 5000 bulls x *7 mln MNT = investment-35.0 billion MNT
8 years
 Broader AI use, investment-15.0 billion MNT
 Achieve status in veterinary and sanitary condition to meet Russian standards,
investment- 0.0 billion MNT
 Expand beef feedlots and green fodder growing, investment-50.0 billion MNT
FUTURE OF LIVESTOCK SECTOR
Future Trends of Cattle Farming
Goals for the export-oriented beef production
1. The morphology of beef improved and the acceptance of Mongolia’s beef at markets
in Russia bettered
2. Improved health/sanitary and quality of stock would result in increased beef export
3. 18 month-old beef cattle weigh up to 400 kg achieving double increase over native
beef acheive
4. The volume of beef export from the 5 aimags (Tuv, Selenge, Bulgan, Khentii and
Dornod) would reach 60.0 thousand tons in 10 years to come. This would be 15 times
more than the beef produced in Mongolia in 2014. Total beef export grows to 200.0
mln US$
5. 500-600 small and medium beef feedlots, investment- 40.0 billion MNT
Total investment - 160.0 million MNT
FUTURE OF LIVESTOCK SECTOR
Sheep Farming
Sheep, ‘000 head
25000.0
18362.3
20000.0
15000.0
13786.6
13560.6
13718.6
10000.0
20066.4
18141.4
14694.2
14165.6
13876.3
15191.3
10636.6
11937.3
11686.4
19274.7
14815.1
16990.1
14480.4
15668.5
12884.5
10756.4
5000.0
0.0
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Problems outstanding:
• The health and hygienic regime is fails to meet international standards including Russia
• Limited mutton export
• Wool production is dominated by coarse and semi-coarse fibres
• Breeding females share less than required
• No specialized lamb fattening exist
FUTURE OF LIVESTOCK SECTOR
Future Trends of Sheep Farming
Tuv
Selenge
Bulgan
Khentii
Dornod
• Upgrade indigenous mongolian sheep by Suffolk and Dorset breeds
• Set up lamb fattening grounds
• Launch export of mutton
• Output of fine and semi-fine wool increased
• Animal health, hygiene and breeding service improved
FUTURE OF LIVESTOCK SECTOR
Future Trends of Sheep Farming
Targets to achieve
• The export of mutton will count at 36 mln US$ after 3 years and in 100.0 mln US$ after
10 years
• Feedlot capacity for 500.0 thousand annually
• Weight of lamb carcass increases from 13 kg to 24 kg
• Quantity of meat per head at the beginning of the year increases from 6 to 11 kg
• Import of Suffolk rams - 15000 head, investment- 40.0 billion MNT
• Set up lamb fattening grounds, investment-75.0 billion MNT
• Lamb carcass export - 12.0 thousand tons
• Production of fine and semifine wool - 7.0 thousand tons
• Livestock health and selection service, investment- 20.0 billion MNT
• Mutton production increases by 310.0 billion MNT
Total investment - 135.0 billion MNT
FUTURE OF LIVESTOCK SECTOR
Goat Farming
Goats, ‘000 head
25000
18347.8
20000
19651.5
19969.4
15000
10265.4
10000
8520.7
5000 7241.3
9134.8
11033.7
11061.9
9591.3
10269.8
10652.9
19227.6
15934.6
17558.7
13267.4
15451.7
12238.0
13883.2
9134.8
0
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Problems:
• Heavily degrades pasture
• Irrational herd structure dominated by high portion of male goats
• Weak development of cashmere processing capacity
• Most seriously influences by goats on desertification of pastures
• Depleted price of goat meat
FUTURE OF LIVESTOCK SECTOR
Future Trends of Goat Farming
• Maintain the size of goat herds below 15 millions through differentiated grazing fee
against upgrading of sheep herd by 5.0 mln
• Female portion in the total herd to be around 55%
• Encourage raising dairy goats in pre-urban and township areas
• Deep processing of cashmere
• More advertising on therapeutic quality of goat meat to uphold price and consumers’
preference
FUTURE OF LIVESTOCK SECTOR
Future Trends of Goat Farming
Targets to achieve
• The percentage of goats in national herd will decrease to 30.0 from 42 as today
• The number of dairy goats grows to 30.0 thousand head , investment-5.0 billion MNT
• Increase of the output of cashmere final products to 80.0% to earn income of
(investment)1300.0 billion MNT (in 2013 - 410 billion MNT)
• Machinery and equipment for processing of cashmere into final products, investment250.0 billion MNT
Total investment - 255.0 billion MNT
FUTURE OF AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
Pig Farming
Pigs, ‘000 head
60.0
51.9
50.0
40.0
36.0
40.4
30.4
30.0
25.8
23.5
22.7
21.9
20.7
20.0
10.0
29.3
24.8
14.8
19.1
32.8
13.7
19.9
17.2
14.7
13.3
0.0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
FUTURE OF AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
Pig Farming
Pork, imported, tons
2000.0
1728.6
1800.0
1659.5
1643.0
2013
2014
1600.0
1400.0
1151.6
1200.0
1000.0
800.0
600.0
400.0
246.0
200.0
0.0
2010
2011
2012
Problems:
• Domestic pork production fails to meet home consumption needs
• Weak human resources in health and feed supply/feeding
• Feed supply dependent on import
• Out-dated equipment and facilities
• No reliable supply of drugs and vaccines
FUTURE OF AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
Future of Pig Farming
• Number of pigs grows to 100.0 thousand head
• Introduction of technologies of Euro standards – investment 7.5 billion MNT
• Full satisfaction of domestic needs in pork
• Improved feed supply and domestic feed manufacturing - investment 5.0 billion MNT
• Pork production increases by 18.0 billion MNT
Total investment - 80.0 billion MNT
FUTURE OF AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
Poultry Farming
Poultry, ‘000 head
700.0
596.8
600.0
500.0
359.9
400.0
100.0
425.8
295.2
300.0
200.0
399.4
469.4 489.3
177.4
99.3
211.9
141.7
90.6
89.1
58.0 65.1 66.6 78.1
54.4 61.6
0.0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Problems:
• Supply of feed to poultry weak
• 80.0% of total poultry feed imported
• Weak competitiveness with imported poultry meat and eggs in prices
• Weak human resources in health and feed supply/feeding
FUTURE OF AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
Poultry Farming
Eggs imported, mln pieces
120.0
103.0
100.0
80.0
92.0
93.8
2012
2013
73.0
60.0
47.6
41.3
40.0
27.4
20.7
20.0
22.7
36.8
34.8
2008
2009
23.3
21.5
15.1
13.0
0.0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2010
2011
2014
FUTURE OF AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
Poultry Farming
Chicken imported, tons
9309.6
10000.0
8275.4
9000.0
8275.4
8000.0
7000.0
5999.3
6000.0
4827.2
Mongolia imported 3.0
thousand tons of meat in
2013
5000.0
4000.0
3000.0
2000.0
1000.0
0.0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
FUTURE OF AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
Future Trends of Poultry Farming
• Build up facility for 500.0 thousand chicken – investment 25.0 billion MNT
• The number of layers grows to 1.0 mln – investment 30.0 billion MNT
• Upgrade poultry feed making – investment 10.0 billion MNT
• Human resources for health and feeding improved – investment 5.0 billion MNT
• Achieves additional capacity to produce poultry meat by 60.0 billion MNT and eggs by
30.0 billion MNT
Total investment - 70.0 billion MNT
FUTURE OF AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
Crop Production
Grain Harvest, ‘000 tons
800.0
718.3
700.0
600.0
595.3
500.0
493.9
515.2
479.3
391.7
479.5 330.7
446.1
Key problems:
• Wheat growing occupies 75.0% of total crop fields and dominated by monoculture
• 50% of arable land is under cultivation with 50% fallow – poor economic return
• Fallow land can be cultivated with feed crops, but no demand
2014
2013
2012
2010
114.8
2009
75.5
2008
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
0.0
1990
165.0
142.2
387.0
355.1
212.9
2007
169.5
138.6
2006
100.0
138.5
125.9
2005
142.1
240.4
2004
261.4
2003
200.0
194.9
2002
220.1
2001
300.0
2011
400.0
FUTURE OF AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
Future Trends of Crop Sector
• Sound reform needed for the use of land and pasture in crop production area
• Encourage crop- intensive livestock integration
• Develop livestock feed production
• Shift to multicultural crop system
GENERAL CONCLUSIONS
• Redirect the investment to be made in agricultural sector to the directions described
above
• Total needs of the development of agricultural sector in investments account for 800.0
billion MNT
• The implementation of above-mentioned measures and actions, the total outputs of
agricultural sector rise by 80.0% or 2075.0 billion MNT as compared with those of 2014
Thank you for attention