Transcript THE ENGINE AND THE ATMOSPHERE ZELLMAN WARHAFT …

NEED
What are GHG’s
IPCC
UCS
CO2 graph - paleo
Temp graph - paleo
Pfaff plan.
OUTLINE
• To show the direct relationship between
engine emissions and carbon dioxide
concentrations in the atmosphere---and global warming.
• To relate the science to the society
• To provide courses of action.
The Planet
The Engine
REGULAR BREATHING
Happy
Planet !
CO2 Level
winter
winter
summer
summer
Season
The real planet we live on
375
CO2, ppm
(parts per
million)
315
1958
2004
Year
Where does the CO2 come from?
GASOLINE OR COAL OR NATURAL
GAS ALWAYS PRODUCES
CARBON DIOXIDE AND WATER WHEN
BURNED IN AIR
Other products too, in very small amounts.
Burning hydrocarbon fuels MUST
produce CO2 and water
In different units:
1 gallon of gas produces 18 lbs
(8kg) of carbon dioxide
RULE OF THUMB:
1 MILE ~ 1/2 POUND OF CO2.
CO2 stays in the atmosphere for about 100 years, so it
adds up.
Let’s calculate:
1 gallon of gas produces 8 kg of
carbon dioxide
IF 800 MILLION VEHICLES IN THE WORLD
BURN 2 GALLONS EACH PER DAY
How many kg of CO2 are produced
per year?
Let’s calculate:
1 gallon of gas produces 8 kg of
carbon dioxide
IF 800 MILLION VEHICLES IN THE WORLD
BURN 2 GALLONS EACH PER DAY
Total kg of CO2
= 800 x 106 x 2 x 8 x 365
= 4672000 x 106 ≈ 5 x 1012 kg
Let’s calculate:
1 gallon of gas produces 8 kg of
carbon dioxide
So 5 x 1012 kg (5 billion tons) of
carbon dioxide into the atmosphere
each year, just from cars and trucks.
IS THAT A BIG NUMBER?
Our Atmosphere is very Thin
The Atmosphere
• The atmosphere of the earth is mainly
Nitrogen (78%) and Oxygen (21%) by volume.
• Carbon dioxide (a greenhouse gas) is only
around 0.038%
Q. How many parts per million is 0.038%?
The Atmosphere
• The atmosphere of the earth is mainly
Nitrogen (78%) and Oxygen (21%) by volume.
• Carbon dioxide (a greenhouse gas) is only
around 0.038%
Q. How many parts per million is 0.038%?
A. 0.038x10-2 = 380 x 10-6 = 380 ppm
The Atmosphere
Carbon dioxide (a greenhouse gas) is only
around 0.038%
375
CO2, ppm
315
1958
Year
2004
Q. How many parts per million is 0.038%?
A. 0.038x10-2 = 380 x 10-6 = 380 ppm
Mass of the Atmosphere is 5.2
thousand trillion tons
5.2
5.210
101818 Kg
Kg


F  ma
So pA = matm g
So matm = pA/g = p (4πR2)/g = 5.2 x1018 kg
Let’s calculate:
1 gallon of gas produces 8 kg of
carbon dioxide
Vehicles add 5 x 1012 kg of CO2
into the atmosphere each year.
IS THAT A BIG NUMBER?
Mass of atmosphere = 5.2 x1018 kg
m ass of co2 entering atm osphere
m ass of atm osphere
5 1012
6


10
5.2 1018
i.e. One part of CO2 per million parts of
atmospheric
mass
per
year.

(in volume units it is nearly 0.7 ppmv/yr)
This is for vehicles only (add power plants
etc. and it comes to around 2 ppmv/yr)
CO2
YEAR
CO2 and Temperature
temperature
Carbon dioxide
Easy to understand
Much harder to understand
The State of Our Global Temperature
The 10 warmest years have all occurred since 1994
Greenhouse
Gases
The State of Our Atmosphere
310
N2O
(ppb)
250
360
CO2
(ppm)
260
1750
CH4
(ppb)
750
1000
1200
1400
1600
Year
1800
2000
Data from IPCC
Figure SPM.1
CO2 and Temperature
HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX VS. ENERGY USE
From A Pasternack LLNL Rep. No. UCLR-ID 140773 (Oct. 2000)
INDIA CO2 EMISSIONS
Carbon dioxide Information center CDIAC.ORNL.GOV
INDIA CO2/capita
US CO2/capita
Carbon dioxide Information Center cdiac.ornl.gov
US CO2 emissions
Carbon dioxide Information Center cdiac.ornl.gov
• Carbon emissions are related to:
• Population (N)
• amount of carbon to make a unit of
energy (C/E)
• energy usage per unit of GDP (E/GDP)
• GDP/capita (GDP/N)
Kaya Identity
GDP E C
CN


N GDP E
N = population
GDP = Gross Domestic Product
E = energy usage
C=carbon into the atmosphere
Kaya Identity:
Hoffert et al
“Nature” V.395
29 Oct. 1998
C
=
N
x
GDP/N
x
E/GDP
x
C/E
CO2 and global warming are due to:
Population increase (demography,
geography,economics,sociology,psychology,history….)
Increase in standard of living
(development,sociology,economics,business,engineering
,government………… )
The amount of carbon we use to
produce the energy(engineering,
chemistry,physics,materials science…….)
The energy usage per unit of
GDP(business, economics,engineering,operations
research……..)
MORE INFO: Google
1. IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change)
2. UCS (Union of Concerned Scientists)
3. Tom Pfaff’s Sustainability Calculus Page
4. State of the Planet course,
Cornell
5. Institute for the Environment,
Berkeley
ACTION
1.Internalization
2.Education/Research
3.Outreach
4.Involvement with policy
5. Examine Tradition
IPCC
2007