Transcript A vision for the national VET system

Workforce Futures:
A national approach to workforce
development
October 2009
Why have a National Workforce
Development Strategy?
Productivity
Participation
Sustainability
How can we best ensure Australia has the
workforce capability required for a
productive, sustainable and inclusive future?
Social
inclusion
Addressing workforce development
three ways
Upskilling
What skills do we
need?
National
Industry
Enterprise
Participation
Who works?
Individual
Skills
Utilisation
How are skills used?
Demand for future skills
Planning for an
uncertain future
Modelling and
forecasts
Current
workforce
trends
3 Scenarios
(Shell Group)
Access
Economics
Analysis current
& trend data
Background Paper 1 – What Does the Future Hold?
Where are we headed?
Are skills enough?
How do we get there?
Agreement on national skill priorities and a shared approach by
governments
Qualifications supply and demand
Access Economics modelling
Qualifications needed ………Projected supply of students
less the projected labour market demand
THE THREE SCENARIOS
Open Doors
Low-trust
Flags
Globalisation
By 2015
Demand
770 000
Demand
645 000
Demand
540 000
Supply
530 000
Supply
525 000
Supply
505 000
BALANCE
-35 000
BALANCE
By 2025
-240 000
BALANCE
-120 000
Demand
830 000
Demand
645 000
Demand
500 000
Supply
660 000
Supply
620 000
Supply
555 000
BALANCE
-25 000
BALANCE
BALANCE
-170 000
+55 000
Modelling findings
A shortfall in the supply of qualifications – most
pronounced in 2015, reducing by 2025.
Relatively weak demand for Certificate III and IV
under each scenario and strong demand for
graduates at bachelor level.
Skilled migration will meet demand for
qualifications except in highest growth scenario.
What policy responses are needed?
‘Matching’ skills and jobs in fluid labour
markets?
People may not seek
or find careers in their
field of learning
Initial education or
training becomes less
relevant over time
Skills are more than
qualifications
40% end up in jobs which
match their VET study
45% workers change
jobs every three years
Importance of generic,
cognitive and
interpersonal skills in a
service-based economy
Proposed ‘targeted approach’ nationally
1
Long lead time – skills are highly specialised and
require extended learning and preparation time.
2
High use – skills are deployed for the uses intended
(that is, good occupational ‘fit’).
3
Significant disruption – the opportunity cost of the
skills being in short supply is high.
4
High information – the quality of information about
the occupation is adequate.
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Data on the rewards and growth rates for each
occupation for consideration as part of the analysis.
‘Digging deeper’ on those occupations
identified…
1
Profile who, where, what, of workforce and student
2
Dynamics where are there issues? (who enters
3
Future needs industry advice on how job will
4
Current action how effective are current
body (occupational structure, industry spread)
education and industry, who leaves and why)
change; educational provider advice on the response
strategies? What more is needed?
Way forward?
1
Monitor broad trends – periodic changes which have
varying effects
2
Local forecasting, investigating, reporting (core role of
education providers, large employers)
3
Ensure information is freely available and people
have the know-how to use it (DEEWR, Skills
Councils, State Governments)
+
4
Emerging thinking around ‘risk’ rather than
match – more appropriate for government?
Our proposal:
A workforce development response
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Identifying and meeting Australia’s future skills
and workforce demands.
Among other things, this will require:
the development of a nationally agreed ‘targeted’ approach to
skills and workforce planning
agree on national challenges to be addressed eg literacy and
numeracy (just under half of Australians have poor functional
literacy) and generic skills
streamlining workforce planning responsibilities and ensuring
adequate information and capacity at all levels
consideration of how resources flow
Addressing workforce development
three ways
Upskilling
What skills do we
need?
National
Industry
Enterprise
Participation
Who works?
Individual
Skills
Utilisation
How are skills used?
How can we best realise Australia’s
skill potential?
Evidence of skill under-use
People (number in ‘000 and per cent) with a non-school
qualification employed at a lower level
30% of
tertiary
graduates
have
qualifications
exceeding
job needs
Source:
ABS, Survey of education and work 2001 and 2007, unpublished data using ASCO coding, Cat no.6227.0. The bars are percentages, with actual
numbers of students in ‘000s also noted.
Workforce development
Those policies and practices which
support people to participate effectively
in the workforce and to
develop and apply skills in a workplace
context
and where learning translates into
positive outcomes for enterprises, the
wider community and individuals
throughout their working lives.
Realising potential:
Productivity and participation dimensions
Skills use
Workforce
participation
“Education PLUS” solutions needed for both
 Holistic diagnosis and solutions
 Place or sub-sector focus
 Collaborative
 Joining up perspectives and resources
 Multiple stakeholders and expertise
Workforce development at different levels
National level
Understanding global and
national trends
Establish frameworks, build
capacity
Individual level
Learning opportunities
suit changing needs
Collaboration across policy
silos
Creating sustainable
industry workforce
Anticipating trends and
skill impacts
Flexible career paths
Ability to use and
enhance skills at work
Industry level
Enterprise level
Work organisation and job
design favours complex skills
Leadership and culture
supports skill development
and use
Competitive advantage
through innovation
Collaboration on common
challenges
Is a coordinated
national approach needed?
Shared
understanding
and language
Build excellence
evaluation/learning
cycle and sharing
expertise
Common principles
and success
indicators where
government funds are
involved
Stronger linkages across
government programs
and initiatives
Resource flexibility
for education/training
organisations to
promote change
Working together
through cluster-based/
locational approaches
Why?
1
Address wastage of people and skills
2
Build industry capacity to manage skills
3
Increase the return on public and private
investment
4
Realise life-long learning outcomes
Helping us answer the questions?
What does the future hold?



What futures can be envisaged?
What could be the demand for future skills in these futures?
What exactly should we plan for?
How can we best realise Australia’s skill potential?
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How can we improve the value from our skills investment?
What could be better relationships between productivity and skills?
What exactly could a workforce development response look like?
How can we best co-ordinate across sectors and agencies?

How can we join up separate areas of government action on workforce
participation?

How can we co-ordinate better across education, government and
industry sectors?
THANK YOU
Addressing workforce development in
three ways
What does the future hold?
How can we best realise Australia’s skill potential?
How can we best co-ordinate across sectors and agencies?
First cut
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Architects, designers, planners and surveyors
Air and marine transport professionals
Engineering professionals
Natural and physical science professionals
All of the education professions including schools teachers, tertiary education
teachers and miscellaneous
All of the health professions including health diagnostic and promotion
professionals, health therapy professionals, medical practitioners, midwifery
and nursing professionals
Business and systems analysts, and programmers
Database and systems administrators, and ICT security specialists
ICT network and support professionals
Legal professionals
Social and welfare professionals
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Automotive electricians and mechanics
Fabrication engineering trades workers
Mechanical engineering trades workers
Panel beaters, and vehicle body builders, trimmers and painters
Bricklayers, and carpenters and joiners
Glaziers, plasterers and tilers
Plumbers
Electricians
Electronics and telecommunications trades workers
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How does Australia perform?
Strong recovery from GFC but …
Global competitiveness: Australia has
slipped from 18th to 14th place during
2000s
Innovation: decline in multi-factor
productivity growth since 2004; just
one-third of firms are ‘innovators’
Ineffective business use of internet:
e-commerce just 10 per cent of turnover
Workforce participation challenge
> 1.5 million Australians underemployed
> 1 million not in the workforce but want to
work
Relatively low participation rate for women of
child bearing age and prime working age men
compared to OECD
Certain groups face profound barriers, eg
Indigenous Australians (48% employment in
2006)