Transcript Slide 1

The 4th International Seville Conference on
Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA)
12 & 13 May 2011
INNOVATION POLICY ROADMAPPING AS A
SYSTEMIC INSTRUMENT FOR POLICY DESIGN
Ahlqvist, Toni, Valovirta, Ville & Loikkanen, Torsti
VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland
INNOVATION POLICY ROADMAPPING...
Background
Systemicity, foresight and policy rationales
• Systemicity
– Organizations participating in the emergence, diffusion and embedding
innovations, e.g. universities, public and private R&D organisations, enterprises,
intermediate organisations (e.g. Smits et al . 2010)
–Technological systems, referring to networks of agents interacting in a
specific economic/industrial area under a particular institutional infrastructure or
a set of infrastructures (e.g. Carlsson & Stankiewicz 1991)
– Systemic interactions of technologies and innovations, e.g. sociotechnological landscapes, socio-technical regimes, niche-level innovations
(Geels 2004)
• Systemicity and foresight
– Different functions of foresight (e.g. Da Costa et al. 2008; Weber et al. 2009)
– Policy rationales (e.g. Georghiou & Keenan 2006)
• Transition management
– Multi-level perspective of transition management (e.g. Rotmans et al. 2001)
INNOVATION POLICY ROADMAPPING...
Emergence of innovation policy roadmapping
Integrating perspectives of the case studies
• Varied cases paved to road towards the emergence of innovation policy
roadmapping
• Three examples, similar needs
1) Cases dealt with local needs for strategic intervention in a situation of
potential lock-in and limited information
2) Cases were realised in systemic settings that highlighted interrelations,
feedback loops, multidirectional causalities etc.
3) A need to form policy-type, synthesising statements and directions
on the basis of the information produced by the projects
INNOVATION POLICY ROADMAPPING...
Using roadmaps in strategy processes
3. Demand articulation:
description of common
understanding about
future societal and
market needs
Need to collect real-time data from buildings and products
Need for inter-equipment communication
Drivers
Demand for quality indoor conditions
Emphasizing of individual requirements
Markets
Several automation system deliveries
and automation bus standards
Markets for "insecurity"
Standardization
of ICT
Fragmented markets; not advanced
business models
Building services solutions for
different bus standards
Products
and
solutions
Utilisation of self-made "de facto"standard solutions
Building operating
system
Model-based
life-cycle
desing and
visualization
Tailored single ICT-solutions
6. Identifying
logical temporal
sequences on a
topic, e.g.
technologies
5. Identifying single strategic
elements in roadmap structure
Technologies
Sensors e.g.
for measuring
temperature
and humidity
Motion
detectors
Built-in sensors
in structures
RFID
Remote reading
and monitoring,
two-way
communication
Plug-and-playequipment
Collecting
room
information
Sensor solutions:
e.g. RFID, pressure
detector
Getting the correct data – RFID, sensors,
event logs
Short-term (1–5 years)
User-specific
personification
Sensors connecting
building functions
Location services
Repairs: technical
solutions for nondisruptive installation
Sensor networks
State-of-the-art
Integrated
systems
Smart
home /
building
machine
Sensor networks,
power-supplyfree
Customizated /
multi-sensory
user interfaces
Interactive user
interface
Self-controlling
systems
Adapting building system (controlled by
usage)
Long-term (5–15 years)
BUILDING SERVICES
NETWORKEDVISIO
THEMATIC VISION:
METAROADMAPIN
2. Identifying
societal needs
that should guide
the technological
development
4. Visionary strategizing: aligning
societal drivers, markets, solutions
and technologies in a timeframe
1. Creation
of a
common
vision
INNOVATION POLICY ROADMAPPING...
Emergence of innovation policy roadmapping
Case I: Saimaa Science Park (SSP)
• Focus in material and environmental technologies
– Identification of key niches in these technology fields
– Building capabilities for market creation in these technology fields
• Project tried to come to terms with spatial relations and regional
specificities of the economy, the uneven distribution of resources and the
future-oriented activities that would be required to re-direct the regional
capacities
• This project also initiated an expert-based assessment process for
evaluating emerging technologies, markets and technology risk
INNOVATION POLICY ROADMAPPING...
Emergence of innovation policy roadmapping
Case I: Saimaa Science Park (SSP)
VTT Expert assessment of three
technology areas
Larger
Energian
hallinta
Technology
area 1
Valoa
tuottavatarea
pinnat
Technology
2
Each circle represents
emerging technology,
such as:
Technologypinnat
area 3
Monitoroivat
• New surface technologies
and sensory coatings
Technology
Risk
• Intelligent and functional
coatings
• Biomaterials and bioactive materials
• Etc.
Business Potential
= size of the ball
Logos
Smaller
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Introduction to Markets
2016
2017
INNOVATION POLICY ROADMAPPING...
Emergence of innovation policy roadmapping
Case II: Roadmap for Spanish natural gas company
• A technology roadmap study on in the field of gas transportation
and distribution for the company distributing natural gas primarily for
the households in the Northern Spain
• Future oriented analysis of drivers, products and markets, and
technologies in the area of gas transportation and distribution
• In collaboration with the local business consulting company having
a long cooperation background with the natural gas company
• Various relevant aspects of different technology fields related, for
example to coating of gas pipelines, smart grids, gas transportation
techniques, energy markets and life cycle perspectives
INNOVATION POLICY ROADMAPPING...
Emergence of innovation policy roadmapping
Case III: Victoria Technology Roadmap
• The purpose of the Victoria Technology Roadmap was to identify key
technological trends which can provide sustainable competitive advantage
for the region in the future
• The overall aim was to build a synthesising picture of the effects of
emerging technologies and technology convergence in the region of
Victoria, Australia, until the year 2020
• The project utilised roadmapping methodology to assess the impacts of
emerging technologies and their convergence on the industrial structures in
the Victoria region
• A specific outcome was policy recommendations, conclusions and related
actions on the basis of the roadmapping process
• Nine economic sectors were analysed in detail and roadmapped in the
project
INNOVATION POLICY ROADMAPPING...
Innovation policy roadmapping (IPRM)
Brief outline
• Aims at systematic analysis of new and future-oriented topics and
ideas that could spring either from technological development, policy
practices or more generic societal development
• Method could also be used for the identification and framing of radical
innovations
• IPRM integrates the approach of technology foresight with system
theoretical thinking, and is built for exploration of links between
technological and societal developments
• There are two levels of inspection in IPRM:
– the level of systemic transformation (transformation roadmap)
– the level technologies and enablers (technology roadmaps)
INNOVATION POLICY ROADMAPPING...
Innovation policy roadmapping (IPRM)
Systemic transformation roadmap (STRM)
Theme / sector
Present stage
Change 2
Change 3
Change 4
Target
Policy and
regulatory
changes and
related
instruments
Present stage
Change 2
Change 3
Change 4
Target
Sectoral
changes:
convergence,
disruptions
Present stage
Change 2
Change 3
Change 4
Target
Key
technological
opportunities:
enablers,
emerging
technologies
Technology Roadmap 1 (see next slide)
Target
Technology Roadmap 2 (see next slide)
Technology Roadmap 3 (see next slide)
Present
Medium term
Long term
Vision beyond the long term
Landscape
drivers:
state, federal,
global
INNOVATION POLICY ROADMAPPING...
Innovation policy roadmapping (IPRM)
Technology roadmap (TRM)
Technology Roadmap Topic N
Present stage
Technology
developments 2
Technology
developments 3
Technology
developments 4
Target
Linked
technologies,
convergence
Present stage
Technology
developments 2
Technology
developments 3
Technology
developments 4
Target
Needs and
markets:
segments,
geography
Present stage
Needs and
market
developments 2
Needs and
market
developments 3
Needs and
market
developments 4
Target
Present stage
CRA
developments 2
CRA
developments 3
CRA
developments 4
Target
Capabilities,
resources,
actors (CRA):
global,
European,
Finnish,
sectoral
Present
Medium term
Long term
Vision beyond the long term
Core technology
evolution
INNOVATION POLICY ROADMAPPING...
Innovation policy roadmapping (IPRM)
Connections between STRM and TRMs
Theme / sector
Present stage
Change 2
Change 3
Change 4
Target
Policy and
regulatory
changes and
related
instruments
Present stage
Change 2
Change 3
Change 4
Target
Sectoral
changes:
convergence,
disruptions
Present stage
Change 2
Change 3
Change 4
Target
Key
technological
opportunities:
enablers,
emerging
technologies
Vision beyond the long term
Landscape
drivers:
state, federal,
global
Technology Roadmap 1 (see next slide)
Target
Technology Roadmap 2 (see next slide)
Technology Roadmap 3 (see next slide)
Long term
Medium term
Present
Technology Roadmap Topic N
Technology Roadmap Topic N
Present stage
Needs and
market
developments 2
Needs and
market
developments 3
Needs and
market
developments 4
Target
Present stage
CRA
developments 2
CRA
developments 3
CRA
developments 4
Target
Capabilities,
resources,
actors (CRA):
global,
European,
Finnish,
sectoral
Present
Medium term
Long term
Core technology
evolution
Present stage
Technology
developments 2
Technology
developments 3
Technology
developments 4
Linked
technologies,
convergence
Present stage
Technology
developments 2
Technology
developments 3
Technology
developments 4
Needs and
markets:
segments,
geography
Present stage
Needs and
market
developments 2
Needs and
market
developments 3
Needs and
market
developments 4
Present stage
CRA
developments 2
CRA
developments 3
CRA
developments 4
Capabilities,
resources,
actors (CRA):
global,
European,
Finnish,
sectoral
Present
Medium term
Long term
Technology
developments 4
Linked
technologies,
convergence
Present stage
Technology
developments 2
Technology
developments 3
Technology
developments 4
Needs and
markets:
segments,
geography
Present stage
Needs and
market
developments 2
Needs and
market
developments 3
Needs and
market
developments 4
Present stage
CRA
developments 2
CRA
developments 3
CRA
developments 4
Capabilities,
resources,
actors (CRA):
global,
European,
Finnish,
sectoral
Present
Medium term
Long term
Vision beyond the long term
Target
Needs and
markets:
segments,
geography
Technology Roadmap Topic N
Technology
developments 3
Target
Technology
developments 4
Technology
developments 2
Target
Technology
developments 3
Present stage
Target
Technology
developments 2
Core technology
evolution
Target
Present stage
Vision beyond the long term
Target
Linked
technologies,
convergence
Target
Technology
developments 4
Target
Technology
developments 3
Target
Technology
developments 2
Target
Present stage
Vision beyond the long term
Core technology
evolution
INNOVATION POLICY ROADMAPPING...
Conclusions: policy instruments and roadmapping
Roadmap element
Policies
Vision
- Facilitating joint vision setting through strategy processes and foresighting
Drivers
- Policies to articulate future demand
Markets
- Policies aiming to facilitate creation of new markets through
o regulation
o taxes
- Creating demand for new products through public procurement
- Support for adoption of new technologies (e.g. through subsidies for IT
investments)
- Support for export activities and inward investments
Products and
solutions
- Policies aiming to facilitate commercialization of public research and
technology development
- Policies providing validation and feasibility assessment of new
technologies
- Creating demonstration and piloting environments for new technologies
- Setting product certification and labelling schemes and requirements
Technologies
- Public funding for R&D and innovation
- Supporting collaborative R&D
- Support for technical standardization
- IPR regulation
- Provision of public technical infrastructure
INNOVATION POLICY ROADMAPPING...
Conclusions: roadmaps and systemic rationale of foresight
• Innovation policy roadmapping contributes to enhancing systemic benefits
of foresight in an innovation system
– Our conclusions support the views of Georghiou and Keenan (2006) who
emphasise the systemic rationale of foresight
• Potential benefits of innovation policy roadmapping
– Case studies show that roadmapping is useful in various issues of strategic
intervention, e.g. potential lock-ins, systemic interdependencies and provision
of policy conclusions
– The success of innovations is often dependent on the emergence of other
complementary technologies, products and services
– Diffusion of innovations often depends on changes in infrastructure,
information systems, organisational practices and social institutions
– Visionary perspective: strategic guidance for identifying the steps towards a
vision
– Nuanced perspective of temporal sequencing of the evolution of
technology and innovation
– Selection of policy instruments according to the level of maturity of the
markets