Transcript FTA in Security and sustainability

Third International Seville Conference on
Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA):
Impacts and implications for policy and decision-making
16th- 17th October 2008
FUTURE-ORIENTED TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS
IN SECURITY AND SUSTAINABILITY:
IMPACTS AND IMPLICATIONS ON DECISION-MAKING
Könnölä, T.1, Scapolo, F.2, Mu, R.3, Desruelle, P.1
1European
Commission JRC-IPTS
2European Commission JRC,
3Chinese Academy of Sciences
Future-oriented technology analysis in security and sustainability
Content
1. Introduction
2. Conceptual Framework
3. Empirical Analysis
4. Discussion
Future-oriented technology analysis in security and sustainability
1. Introduction
Impacts of FTA in security and sustainability?
Sustainability
• Future needs of society (Brundtland,1987)
• Triple bottom line (ecological, social and economic development)
• Challenges, e.g. climate change, global equity, competitiveness
Security
• The condition of being protected against danger or loss that originate
from outside such as war, disaster, civil unrest, terrorism or sabotage.
• Related to critical infrastructures
Common nominators
-complexity, uncertainty, irreversibility
Future-oriented technology analysis in security and sustainability
2. Conceptual Framework
What kinds of impacts of FTA?
What kinds of FTA projects in security and
sustainability?
A framework* for characterising different types of FTA projects
• Outcomes
• Informative vs. Instrumental & Informative Outcomes
• Consensual vs. Diverse Future Perspectives
• Process
• Extensive vs. Exclusive Stakeholder Engagement
• Fixed vs. Autonomous Design and Management
* Framework builds on Könnölä, T., Ahlqvist, T., Eerola, A. Kivisaari, S. &
Koivisto, R. (forthcoming). On Classifying Foresight Projects:
Reflections from the Management of a Foresight Portfolio at a Contract
Research Organisation, Technological Analysis & Strategic
Management.
Future-oriented technology analysis in security and sustainability
2.1 Empirical Analysis: Foresight Outcomes
Informative
Consensual
Diverse
Instrumental & informative
Future-oriented technology analysis in security and sustainability
2.2 Empirical Analysis: Foresight Process
Extensive
Autonomous
Fixed
Exclusive
Future-oriented technology analysis in security and sustainability
2.3 Empirical Analysis: Foresight Framework
Extensive
Fixed
Consensual
Fixed
Informative
Autonomous
Extensive
Fixed
Exclusive
Exclusive
Extensive
Extensive
Autonomous
Fixed
Instrumental &
informative
Diverse
Autonomous
Future-oriented technology analysis in security and sustainability
3.1 Empirical Analysis
How different types of FTAs have had impacts on
security and sustainability?
FTA shifted from S&T to different policy fields, inclusion of societal
dimensions
• Sustainability has been widely addressed in FTA projects
• Security addressed but maybe not as widely
Key phases in the empirical analysis
1. Selection of projects
• Personal experience or contact
• Resulted in a set of mostly policy-oriented foresights
2. Description of each project
3. Positioning of the projects in the framework
4. Analysis of the impacts of different types of FTA projects
Future-oriented technology analysis in security and sustainability
3.2 Empirical Analysis: Selected Foresight Projects
• European wide
• China
– National Technology Foresight
in China
– Technology Foresight towards
2020 in China
– IRRIIS Scenario
– FISTERA
– Impact of ICTs on
Environmental Sustainability
• Nordic countries
• Japan
– Nordic ICT Foresight
– Nordic H2 Energy Foresight
– VTT Water Research Roadmap
• UK
– UK DCDC Global
• Canada
– Foresight Canada
– Innovation 25 in Japan
– 8th Japanese Foresight
Program
• Korea
– National Technology Roadmap
in Korea
– The Revision 3rd Korean tech.
foresight
Future-oriented technology analysis in security and sustainability
3.3 Empirical Analysis: Foresight Outcomes
IRRIIS Scenario
National Technology Foresight in China
Nordic H2 Energy Foresight
Technology Foresight towards 2020 in
China
National Technology Roadmap in Korea
Informative
Impact of ICTs on Environmental
Sustainability
Nordic ICT Foresight
Consensual
8th Japanese Foresight Program
FISTERA
Foresight Canada
Innovation 25 in Japan
The 8th Japanese foresight program
The Revision 3rd Korean technology
foresight
UK DCDC Global
Diverse
VTT Water Research Roadmap
Instrumental & informative
Future-oriented technology analysis in security and sustainability
3.4 Empirical analysis: Foresight Framework
Extensive
Informative
National Technology foresgiht in
China
Technology Foresight towards
2020 in China
National Technology Roadmap in
Nordic H2 Energy Foresight
Korea
Fixed
Extensive
Nordic ICT Foresight
Autonomous
Fixed
Impact of ICTs on Environmental
Sustainability
IRRIIS Scenario
Consensual
Exclusive
Exclusive
Extensive
Japanese foresight program
rd
Revisión of 3 TF in Korea
FISTERA
Foresight Canada
Diverse
Extensive
Innovation 25 in Japan
Fixed
Autonomous
UK DCDC Global
Fixed
Autonomous
VTT Water Research
Roadmap
Instrumental &
informative
Future-oriented technology analysis in security and sustainability
4.1 Discussion: Security and Sustainability Foresight
Informative
Reduced policy interest
Unexpected indirect impacts may lead to instrumental use
Consensual
Risks of
lock-in?
Important impacts
BUT tracing difficult
Missed
opportunities?
Instrumental & informative
Diverse
Future-oriented technology analysis in security and sustainability
4.2 Discussion: FTA and Security and Sustainability
Informative
Awareness
Vision-building
Common
networks
Weak signals, trend
breaks
New value networks
Consensual
Diverse
Participatory
democracy
Science for
policy
Exploration and
creative generation
of new
ideas/solutions
Instrumental & informative
Third International Seville Conference on
Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA):
Impacts and implications for policy and decision-making
16th- 17th October 2008
FUTURE-ORIENTED TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS
IN SECURITY AND SUSTAINABILITY:
IMPACTS AND IMPLICATIONS ON DECISION-MAKING
Könnölä, T.1, Scapolo, F.2, Mu, R.3, Desruelle, P.1
1European
Commission JRC-IPTS
2European Commission JRC,
3Chinese Academy of Sciences