Transcript Slide 1

The 4th International Seville Conference on
Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA)
12 & 13 May 2011
CONSTRUCTING SYSTEMIC TRANSFORMATION CAPACITIES IN A
RESEARCH AND TECHNOLOGY ORGANISATION:
APPLYING DIVERSIFIED ROADMAP CONCEPT AT VTT, FINLAND
Ahlqvist, Toni, Halonen, Minna, Eerola, Annele, Kivisaari, Sirkku,
Kohl, Johanna, Koivisto, Raija & Myllyoja, Jouko
VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland
CONSTRUCTING SYSTEMIC TRANSFORMATION CAPACITIES ...
Introduction
Rationale for building systemic capacities
• Organisational and geographical scales of innovation systems are more
interlinked
– Systemic transformations flow through this faster than before
– Flows have complex effects, harder to anticipate
• Research and technology organisations (RTOs) should develop two
systemic capacities
–1) partial structural openness and fluidity endorsing rapid alterations in the
organisational structures;
– 2) horizontal and pervasive anticipatory culture that builds up an internal
future-oriented agency, i.e. proactive and bottom-up participatory approach
which leads to action
CONSTRUCTING SYSTEMIC TRANSFORMATION CAPACITIES ...
Interplay of past, present and future knowledge in an organisation
Organisational
development,
e.g. growth
Past path-dependency of organisation
Now – the
sphere of
present actions
Future
development
options
Strategic watersheds in the past
Growth
Business as usual
Unrealised options
Decline
Temporal direction of the organisation
CONSTRUCTING SYSTEMIC TRANSFORMATION CAPACITIES ...
VTT’s parallel innovation process model:
towards a future-oriented model
Changes in the business environment
Foresighting
Customers’ innovation processes
Development of business models
Applications research
Technology research and development
VTT’s research and innovation programme
Continuous foresight through expert communities and checkpoints
Adapted from Koppinen, Lammasniemi & Kalliokoski 2010
CONSTRUCTING SYSTEMIC TRANSFORMATION CAPACITIES ...
Using roadmaps in strategy processes
3. Demand articulation:
description of common
understanding about
future societal and
market needs
Need to collect real-time data from buildings and products
Need for inter-equipment communication
Drivers
Demand for quality indoor conditions
Emphasizing of individual requirements
Markets
Several automation system deliveries
and automation bus standards
Markets for "insecurity"
Standardization
of ICT
Fragmented markets; not advanced
business models
Building services solutions for
different bus standards
Products
and
solutions
Utilisation of self-made "de facto"standard solutions
Building operating
system
Model-based
life-cycle
desing and
visualization
Tailored single ICT-solutions
6. Identifying
logical temporal
sequences in
selected topic,
e.g. technologies
5. Identifying single strategic
elements in roadmap structure
Technologies
Sensors e.g.
for measuring
temperature
and humidity
Motion
detectors
Built-in sensors
in structures
RFID
Remote reading
and monitoring,
two-way
communication
Plug-and-playequipment
Collecting
room
information
Sensor solutions:
e.g. RFID, pressure
detector
Getting the correct data – RFID, sensors,
event logs
Short-term (1–5 years)
User-specific
personification
Sensors connecting
building functions
Location services
Repairs: technical
solutions for nondisruptive installation
Sensor networks
State-of-the-art
Integrated
systems
Smart
home /
building
machine
Sensor networks,
power-supplyfree
Customizated /
multi-sensory
user interfaces
Interactive user
interface
Self-controlling
systems
Adapting building system (controlled by
usage)
Long-term (5–15 years)
BUILDING SERVICES
NETWORKEDVISIO
THEMATIC VISION:
METAROADMAPIN
2. Identifying
societal needs
that should guide
the technological
development
4. Visionary strategizing: aligning
societal drivers, markets, solutions
and technologies in a timeframe
1. Creation
of a
common
vision
CONSTRUCTING SYSTEMIC TRANSFORMATION CAPACITIES ...
Roadmapping and systemic transformation capacity
Key concepts
• Future-oriented agency can be defined as a strategic capacity of an
organisation or a community to construct feasible targets towards the future
through shared dialogue, and also to implement actions on this basis. We
suggest that future-oriented agency is in key role when constructing
systemic transformation capacities in any context.
• Roadmap knowledge space here refers to a niche in an organisation or
in a community in which a future-oriented agency can be mobilised.
Knowledge spaces therefore depict key spheres in which the systemic
transformation capacity is realised.
• Roadmap scope refers to the level to which roadmap is targeted. Scope
refers to a more traditional insight of roadmapping methodology that
separates e.g. technology roadmaps and market roadmaps. Our model
separates roadmaps with R&D scope and roadmaps with systemic
scope.
CONSTRUCTING SYSTEMIC TRANSFORMATION CAPACITIES ...
Diversified roadmap concept I: knowledge spaces
VISIONARY SPACE
STRATEGIC SPACE
Disruptive
Probable
Alternative
SOCIAL/ACTOR SPACE
Plausible
‘Black swan’
TECHNOLOGY SPACE
Probable
Unlikely
PAST
PRESENT
FUTURES
CONSTRUCTING SYSTEMIC TRANSFORMATION CAPACITIES ...
Diversified roadmap concept II: roadmap scopes
Roadmap
scope
Description
Process aims
 Roadmapping singular
technologies from a certain
perspective
 Enhancing organisational
capacities in a certain
technology field
 Roadmapping organisational
capacities in developing new
competencies
 Roadmap for developing
organisational / firm
capacities
Systemic I:
business
perspective
 Network roadmapping
 Cluster roadmapping
 Roadmap for developing
capacities for network or a
cluster
Systemic II:
policy
perspective
 Innovation policy
roadmapping
 Roadmap for developing
synthesising policy
perspectives for public actors
R&D I:
R&D
perspective on
single
technology or
object
R&D II:
R&D
perspective on
single
organisation or
firm
Primary utilisation of
roadmap
 Building vision and associated
steps mainly in the
technological space
 Drafting action steps to
advance the implementation
of the technology in question
 Combination of roadmap
knowledge ‘spaces’ depends
on the specific aims of the
process
 Forming practical
organizational conclusions on
the basis of the roadmapping
 Combination of roadmap
knowledge ‘spaces’ depends
on the specific aims of the
process
 Making business decisions on
the basis of the roadmapping
 Combination of roadmap
knowledge ‘spaces’ depends
on the specific aims of the
process
 Forming policy conclusions on
the basis of the roadmapping
CONSTRUCTING SYSTEMIC TRANSFORMATION CAPACITIES ...
Case example I: Building Services Roadmap
Knowledge
space
Description
Key systemic capacities
associated with the space
Uses of the knowledge
Technology
 Exercise covered the field of
building services with explicit
focus on future possibilities
especially through ICT
applications
 Capacities for renewal of
technological basis internally
at VTT
 Also, aim was to affect the
view of the building services
sector in general by stating
the VTT state-of-the-art
Social/actor
 Exercise covered social/actor
space from the selected
perspectives
 Markets for adoption of novel
solutions, e.g. integrated ICT
 Markets for new services and
service providers in the field
 Capacities for linking
knowledge internally, e.g.
construction and ICT
 Endorsed a view of VTT as a
key player in the renewal of
building services markets, e.g.
spread the vision of
technological possibilities for
rather “conservative” markets
in building and construction
 Built capacities for
construction of new
integrated market players
and clarified a role of VTT in
relation to these new players
 Technology visions were built,
e.g. a novel way to
characterise building services
 New enabling technologies
were identified, e.g.
advanced materials
 Several novel singular
elements were embedded in
the roadmaps, e.g. virtual
power plant, passive houses,
“black box” of building
 In exercise, market-based
visions were built on the basis
of current technology
trajectories and also by
tracking disruptive
alternatives
 Novel market features and
actors were identified, e.g.
integrated service provider
 Articulated demand
opportunities especially in
the advanced building service
solutions
 Identified societal and market
drivers, for e.g. customised
housing and in-door services
CONSTRUCTING SYSTEMIC TRANSFORMATION CAPACITIES ...
Case example II: SSB network roadmap
Knowledge
space
Description
Key systemic capacities
associated with the space
Uses of the knowledge
Strategy
 Exercise defined the emerging
field of service research and
its future possibilities.
 Explicit focus on establishing
a service mind set in the
organisation
Social/actor
 Identification of most
important players in the field
of service research internally
and externally
 Markets for new services and
service providers in the field
 Capacities for gathering the
existing service knowledge
and creating new service
knowledge internally at VTT
 To fortify VTT’s brand as a
service research organisation
by stating the VTT state-ofthe-art and vision for the
future
 Capacities and methods for
linking and sharing existing
knowledge internally, both
across disciplines and
organisational functions
 Capacities and methods for
creating new knowledge in
the network
 Endorsed a view of VTT as a
key player in service research
both in Finland and Europe
 Knowledge generated via
roadmapping was iteratively
utilised throughout the
strategy building process, e.g.
definition of service,
identification of most
important research needs,
generation of project
proposals
 VTT’s vision on service was
built on the basis of past
development paths, current
service trends, opportunities
and challenges
 Identified VTT’s own
capacities, and potential
development paths
 Identified societal and market
drivers
CONSTRUCTING SYSTEMIC TRANSFORMATION CAPACITIES ...
Conclusions
• Paper argued that RTOs should develop should develop two systemic
capacities: structural openness and fluidity & horizontal and pervasive
anticipatory culture
• Organisation: a continuum of past, present and future knowledge
• Towards a future-oriented parallel innovation model at VTT
• Contribution of roadmapping to the building of systemic capacities
• Knowledge spaces in an RTO
– Technology space; Social / actor space; Strategic space; Visionary space
• Roadmap scopes
– Singular
• Single technology -> action steps
• Single organisation -> practical conclusions
– Systemic
• Business perspective -> business decisions
• Policy perspective -> policy conclusions
• Examples: Building Service roadmap and SSB network roadmap