Transcript Folie 1 - uni-duesseldorf.de

Counterfactual Conditionals
and False Belief
Eva Rafetseder, Christine Hofer & Josef Perner
2 Guiding Questions
1. Under which circumstances can we conclude that
children are able to reason counterfactually?
2. Based on the drawn conclusion, does there exist
a connection between counterfactual reasoning
and false belief?
2
Typical Counterfactual Task
Story: Carol comes home and she doesn‘t take her shoes off.
She makes the floor all dirty with her shoes.
Test:
Counterfactual question: „If Carol had taken her shoes off,
would the floor be dirty or clean?“
! Children are able to give the correct answer „clean“ as soon
as they understand that the consequence has to differ from
reality (= counter to fact).
Harris et al. (1996)
3
Results
3 - 4 correct
Performance differs from
D(N = 13) = 0.40, p<.01
chance for both age groups: D(N = 13) = 0.53, p<.01
0 - 2 correct
100
100
% of children
% correct
75
50
25
75
50
25
0
0
3;1 - 4;0
4;4 - 5;2
n = 13
n = 13
agegroups
3;1 - 4;0
4;4 - 5;2
n = 13
n = 13
agegroup
Harris et al. (1996)
4
Consider!
Carol didn‘t take her muddy shoes off and
walked over the clean floor. The floor is all dirty.
Counterfactual
(subjunctive Question)
Hypothetical
(indicative Question)
If Carol had taken her shoes off,
would the floor be clean or dirty?
If Carol takes her shoes off,
is the floor clean or dirty?
[clean]
[clean]
same (correct) answer with and without counterfactual reasoning(!)
5
Needed Distinction
Counterfactual reasoning Hypothetical reasoning
- Combines assumptions with
facts
- Subjunctive
- Reasoning with assumptions
„counter to fact“
- Indicative
- Example:
- Example:
Somebody walked with dirty
IF (whenever) somebody takes
shoes on the clean floor. IF this
the dirty shoes off THEN the
person
haduse
taken
dirtycounterfactual
floor
(tends to be)
clean.give
We should
tasksthe
in which
andishypothetical
reasoning
different
a counterfactual
shoes
offanswers
THEN to
the
floor would question in order to avoid false positives!
have stayed clean.
6
Developmental Test
Simple Version
Harris et al. (1996)
Carol doesn‘t take her shoes off. She
makes the floor all dirty with her shoes.
Complex Version
Schwitalla (2010)
Carol and John don‘t take their shoes
off. They make the floor all dirty with
their shoes.
„If Carol had taken her shoes off, would the floor be dirty or clean?“
„Show me: How would the floor look?“
[clean]
[dirty]
7
Results
100
% correct
75
50
25
0
5;0 - 6;1
7;8 - 10;8
adults
n = 20
n = 20
n = 21
agegroups
t(60) = 7.27, p < .001
Schwitalla (2010)
8
Results
Schwitalla (2010)
100
% of adults
1 cf / 1fb correct
all four correct
more simple correct
75
50
25
two correct
simple
one correct
0
zero correct
one correct
two correct
complex
% of 5;0 – 6;1 year olds
% of 7;8 - 10;8 year olds
100
100
75
75
50
50
25
two correct
one correct
0
zero correct one correct
two correct
25
two correct
one correct
0
zero correct
one correct
two correct
9
Results
% of 7;8 - 10;8 year olds
Schwitalla (2010)
100
75
50
25
two correct simple
one correct
0
zero correct
one correct
two correct
100
75
50
two correct
one correct
25
0
zero
correct
one correct
two
correct
% of 10;0 - 10;8 year olds
% of 7;8 - 10;0 year olds
complex
100
75
50
two correct
one correct
25
0
zero correct one correct two correct
10
… and with a different scenario?
11
Developmental Test
Pilz (2005)
1st Transformation
2nd Transformation
boy‘s room
top shelf
too short
mother
puts
sweets
OR
bottom shelf
boy comes
girl‘s room
girl comes
12
TASK
♂
Today mother puts sweets into the top box.
too short
Memory 1: Where are the sweets now?
♀
Future Hypothetical Event
What will happen with the sweets, when the boy comes looking for sweets?
Where will the sweets be? [boy´s room]
Look, the boy comes along looking for sweets. He finds them in the top box
and takes them to his room!
Memory 2: Where are the sweets now?
Counterfactual Event
But what, if not the boy but the small girl had come along looking for sweets.
Where would the sweets be? [top shelf]
13
RESULTS
Rafetseder et al (2010)
And now?
A typical false belief task, e.g. the Maxi task, can be
solved by 4 year olds…
15
Counterfactual Reasoning
and False Belief
Story: Peter – a firefighter – feels seek and goes to bed.
Sally – his wife – goes to the drug store to get some medicine.
While Sally is away, the sirens sound: fire in the post office.
Peter rushes to the post office to help put out the fire.
Test:
Counterfactual question: „If there had been no fire,
where would Peter be?“
False belief question: „Where does Sally think, Peter is?“
Participants: n = 28; 3;11 – 4;10
Riggs et al. (1998)
16
Results
none correct
1 cf / 1fb correct
50
all four correct
% of children
40
30
more cf correct
20
two correct
10
one correct
Counterfactual
zero correct
0
zero correct
one correct
False belief
two correct
r = 0.86, p < 0.01
Riggs et al. (1998)
17
Consider!
The counterfactual question of the firefighter task
can be solved with „counter to fact“ assumptions.
Any child who understands that the counterfactual
question asks a consequence that is different
from reality might answer with „home“ – the only
other possible answer in the story.
18
If there are two other
possibilities…
2 possibilities
1 possibility
100
χ2 (N = 133) = 33.6, p < .001)
% correct
75
50
25
0
3;2 - 4;3
n = 31
4;4 - 5;2
n = 36
5;3 - 6;0
6;1 - 6;10
n = 34
n = 32
Young children can reason
hypothetically with counterto-fact assumptions but no
evidence of counterfactual
reasoning.
agegroups
Rafetseder & Perner (2010)
19
Open Question
If we use our „difficult“ CF-scenario and add an FBquestion, will the FB-question still be as or more
difficult than the CF-question?
20
Developmental Test
Pilz (2005)
1st Transformation
2nd Transformation
boy‘s room
top shelf
too short
mother
puts
sweets
OR
bottom shelf
boy comes
girl‘s room
girl comes
21
Simple Condition
♂
Today mother puts sweets into the bottom box.
♀
Look, the girl comes along looking for sweets. She finds them in the bottom box
and takes them to her room! She is wearing boy‘s jacket. Mother thinks it was the
boy.
Counterfactual Question:
But what, if not the girl but the boy had come along looking for sweets. Where
would the sweets be? [boy’s room]
False belief question:
Where does the mother think that the sweets are? [boy’s room]
22
Complex Condition
♂
too short
Today mother puts sweets into the top box.
♀
Look, the boy comes along looking for sweets. He finds them in the top box
and takes them to his room! He ducks when he sneaks back to his room. Mother
thinks it was the little girl.
Counterfactual Question:
But what, if not the boy but the small girl had come along looking for sweets.
Where would the sweets be? [top shelf]
False belief question:
– „Where does the mother think that the sweets are? [top shelf]
23
Simple vs. Complex Condition
Complex Condition
Setup: Sweets are on top shelf
and boy takes them to his room.
Hypothetical reasoning
If little girl comes then, sweets go
to her room. [girl‘s room]
Counterfactual reasoning
Sweets were on top shelf. If little 
girl had come, they would have
stayed there. [top shelf]
Simple Condition
Setup: Sweets are on bottom
shelf and girl takes them to her
room.
Hypothetical reasoning
If boy comes then, sweets go
to his room. [boy‘s room]
Counterfactual reasoning
=
Sweets were on bottom shelf. If
boy had come, they would have
gone to his room. [boy‘s room]
24
Results
100
cf simple
fb simple
cf complex
75
% correct
fb complex
50
Before partialling age out:
Simple: r = 0.48, p< 0.001
Complex: r = 0.58, p< 0.001
25
After partialling age out:
0
7;0 - 8;10
9;3 - 11;0
12;4 - 14;10
adults
n = 20
n = 20
n = 20
n = 20
agegroups
Simple: r = 0.48, p< 0.001
Complex: r = 0.49, p< 0.001
Hofer (2010)
25
Results
% of 12;4 – 14;10 year olds
% of 7;0 – 8;10 year olds
100
100
75
75
50
50
two right
one right complex cf 25
zero right
25
0
0
zero right one right two right
zero right
complex fb
% of 9;3 – 11;0 year olds
100
75
75
50
50
two right
one right
zero right
0
zero right one right two right
one right
two right
% of adults
100
25
two right
one right
zero right
two right
one right
zero right
25
0
zero right one right two right
26
How are cf and fb connected?
Simple Condition
Setup: Sweets are on bottom shelf and girl takes them to her room.
She is wearing boy‘s jacket.
False belief of the mother: that it is the boy
Hypothetical reasoning (counter to fact)
If boy comes then, sweets go to his room. [boy‘s room]
Counterfactual reasoning
If boy had come, sweets would have gone to his room. [boy‘s room]
27
How are cf and fb connected?
Complex Condition
Setup: Sweets are on top shelf and boy takes them to his room. He
ducks when he sneaks back to his room.
False belief of the mother: that it is the girl
Hypothetical reasoning (counter to fact)
If girl comes then, sweets go to her room. [girl ‘s room]
Counterfactual reasoning
If girl had come, sweets would have stayed on top shelf. [top shelf]
28
Conclusion
Simple Condition
Complex Condition
- How does the world look from - How does the world look from
the perspective of another
the perspective of the other
person?
person and what can one
conclude from that?
Counter to fact reasoning
Counterfactual reasoning
29
Thanks to
Louisa Hacking
Josef Perner
Maria Schwitalla
Children
Andy Fugard
Christine Hofer
Sabrina Ecker