ENERGY SECURITY AND THE THREAT OF CLIMATE CHANGE

by R. Chidambaram Dr. H.N. Sethna Memorial Lecture, Nehru Centre, Mumbai, 24

th

August 2012

Dr. Homi N. Sethna

     Chairman AEC from 1971 to 1983 Eminent Chemical Engineer Project Manager One of the Nuclear and Pioneers who helped Bhabha to start the Indian Atomic Energy Programme Many achievements: materials which laid the Production foundation of of our 3-stage programme: Thorium separation from monazite in beach sands - Thorium Nitrate Plant(1955); Uranium metal plant(1959) plutonium plant (1964) and The plutonium produced in the latter went into the 1974 PNE test device

Dr. Sethna, R. Ramanna, P.K. Iyengar, R. Chidambaram at a press conference on Pokhran-I, at Old Yacht Club (May 20, 1974)

I have often said: “ National Development and National Security are two sides of the same coin. Development without Security is vulnerable; meaningless”.

Security without Development is “ The greatest advantage of recognized strength is that you don’t have to use it. This is the basis of Nuclear Deterrence.” In May 1998, after the extremely successful Pokhran II tests, India declared itself a Nuclear Weapon State.

Plutonium is a crucial material for nuclear weapons

Variation of Human Development Index(HDI) with respect to PCEC I have been saying for two decades that the two measures of development for us are PCEC and Female Literacy

1.0

100% 99% 0.9

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.5

89.1% 80.7% 64%

India now

90.2% 83.6%

India of our dreams Percentage Literacy (India) M F 2001 2011 74 54 85 65

Source: Census 2011

0.4

32.7% 0.3

0.2

0.1

References: Human Development Report, 2011 World Bank, 2011 World Factbook, CIA 0.0

10 100 1000 10000 Per Capita Electricity Consumption (PCEC) in 2009 100000

“There is no power as costly as no-power” – Homi Bhabha(1950’s)

R. Chidambaram 2012

  

Fossil Fuels, particularly Coal: Clean Coal Technologies (IGCC. Adv. Ultrasupercritical Thermal Plant, CCS, etc.) Renewable Sources (Solar, Wind, Hydro, etc.) Nuclear All are important for India

Future Possibilities for Energy Security

  

Biofuels, Shale Gas, etc. Accelerator-Driven Sub-critical System Fusion (ITER & LIFE) R. Chidambaram

“The estimates made here indicate that even with a per capita electricity need of 2000 kWh/annum *

frugal

and a stabilized population of 1700 million by 2070, India would need to generate 3400

TWh/yr.

As opposed to this, a systematic analysis of the information available on all the renewable energy sources indicates that the total potential is only around 1229

TWh/yr

. (438 TWh/yr.

from Solar).

It is concluded that in the future as fossil fuels are exhausted, renewable sources alone will not suffice for meeting India’s needs.”

S. P. Sukhatme, Current Science, Vol.101(5), 10 September, 2011

* This, as Dr. Sukhatme says, is a frugal estimate. My estimate of the per capita electricity need , before India becomes a ‘developed’ country in full est sense of the term , is at least three times higher.

the

Nuclear Growth in USA & France

110000 100000 96228 98068 96297 98145 100683 90000 USA France 80000 74401 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 35891 50881 37468 55808 58573 63080 63260 63130 20000 10000 6333 14388 0 1710 2931 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Years

The growth between 1970 and 1990 shows that nuclear power in necessary nuclear-related technologies can grow rapidly.

2010

countries with Source IAEA-PRIS

20000 18000 16000 South Korea China India 16810 17705 14000 12990 12000 10000 9115 8000 8438 7220 6000 6587 3984 4000 2993 2188 2508 2000 0 420 1970 606 0 0 1975 832 564 1980 3580 1143 1324 1985 0 0 1990 1746 1995 2188 2000 2005 2010 Years Large energy-stressed countries like India and China, in particular, desperately need nuclear power inputs.

2015 Source IAEA-PRIS

The three-stage Indian nuclear programme is based on the closed nuclear fuel cycle and thorium utilisation AHWR PHWR FBTR 300 GWe-Year Th Nat. U U fueled PHWRs

Electricity

Dep. U Pu Power generation primarily by PHWR Building fissile inventory for stage 2 42000 GWe-Year Th Pu Fueled Fast Breeders

Electricity

155000 GWe-Year U 233 U 233 Fueled Reactors

Electricity

Pu U 233 Expanding power programme Building U 233 inventory Thorium utilisation for Sustainable power programme Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Nuclear is now an accepted mitigation technology in the context of the Climate Change Threat. But if it is to be a sustainable mitigation technology, you have to close the nuclear fuel cycle.

NATIONAL ACTION PLAN ON CLIMATE CHANGE There are 8 Missions outlined in the National Action Plan on Climate Change:

•National Solar Mission •National Mission for Enhanced Energy Efficiency •National Mission on Sustainable Habitat •National Water Mission •National Mission for Sustaining the Himalayan Ecosystem •National Mission for a

“Green India”

•National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture •National Mission on Strategic Knowledge for Climate Change

Of course, much else has also been suggested beyond these 8 Missions. Nuclear Energy is not in the above list because the Department of Atomic Energy is itself a Mission – oriented Agency.

A new (9th) Mission on Clean Coal (Carbon) Technologies is being considered

Other Dimensions of Energy Security and Climate Change Mitigation

I am focusing in this talk on energy production technologies.

But there are other dimensions related to energy use:   There is a ‘Mission on Enhanced Energy Efficiency’ in the National Action Plan on Climate Change.

The Department of Heavy Industry has proposed a Electric Mobility Mission Plan(NEMMP) – 2020 ’ ‘National through faster adoption of electric vehicles (including hybrids).

Globally the transportation sector accounts for 30% of energy consumption and emissions.

20% of global Greenhouse Gas

Importance of the Kudankulam Project

The ~1000 Mwe that Tamil Nadu will get from the two KKNPs is the power that, at the current per capita electricity consumption rate in Tamil Nadu, is supplied to more than 4 million people KK type plants: 16 in Russia and 9 in other countries. In particular China Tianwan Phase I – Two VVER 1000 reactors – both went into commercial operation in 2007. Six more units planned in Tianwan

“Expanded use of nuclear technologies offers immense potential to meet important development needs. In fact, to satisfy energy demands and to mitigate the threat of climate change – two of the 21 st century’s greatest challenges – there are major opportunities for expansion of nuclear energy in those countries that choose to have it”.

from Report on “The Role of the IAEA to 2020 and Beyond”, prepared by an independent Commission at the request of the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency – 2008. I was a member of this Commission.

Lessons have been learnt by all nuclear countries from last year’s Fukushima accident, particularly on the integrity of post-shutdown cooling systems following extreme natural events, but the above conclusion remains unchanged.

IAEA General Conference, Vienna, September, 2011: Statement of the Chinese representatives (This meeting was held six months after the Fukushima accident)

Quoted old Chinese proverb: eating for fear of choking !’ ‘Should not stop What he meant was that, while safety reviews should be there after the Fukushima accident, the response cannot be to reject the essential nuclear energy option.

N.B: Ohi No.4 reactor – second reactor to resume operation in Japan after the Fukushima accident : started generating power at full capacity on 24 th July, 2012.

Highly Productive Institutions in Nuclear Waste Management during 1970-2009 as per INIS Database (Five year blocks)

Courtesy: Dr. R.K. Sinha, BARC

SAFETY CULTURE

Safety is in design and in operation; Safety has to be ensured through regulation. But, most importantly, Safety is assured through the existence of a Safety Culture. In the more than four decades of our operation Culture in DAE.

of nuclear reactors, our excellent track record in Safety is because of the Safety These facts and the benefits of nuclear energy Programmes.

– direct and spin off planned) – have to be conveyed to the people living in the neighbourhood of our nuclear power plants (existing and through Neighbourhood Public Awareness Our communication to the public must be correct, concise and comprehensible to the layman. Incidentally, it is a fact that, outside his/her area of specialisation, even a scientist is not much better than a layman, though by training his/her grasp of new scientific facts may be better.

R. Chidambaram

 Accelerator – driven sub-critical reactor, using the spallation nuclear reaction.

 Thermonuclear Confinement Fusion (Tokamak):ITER and Inertial fusion Confinement – Magnetic (Laser-Induced) Fusion:LIFE Livermore).

(National Ignition Facility,  All these systems are for energy as reactors or for energy amplification and fissile material breeding as hybrids.

ITER ( I nternational T okamak E xperimental R eactor) Joint Venture of 7 parties ITER Fusion Power: 500 MW Plasma Volume: 840 m 3 Plasma Current: 15 MA Typical Density: 10 20 m -3 Typical Temperature: 20 keV ITER complex at Cadarache, FRANCE (an artists view)

Courtesy : Y.C. Saxena

“ After the second world war, the U.S … led the world …… through the Department of Defense’s (DoD’s) central role in technology development. To support this technology base, the DoD invested in emerging fields….Resulting waves of innovation created whole industries that helped to fuel the US economy…. The attributes that accounted for the military’s successes (included), in particular, its focused mission. …….…. and its role as an early customer for advanced technologies”.

Daniel Sarewitz, Nature 471, 137(9 March 2011)

India’s mission-oriented agencies have a similar experience and must continue to play a catalytic role in India’s technology development. More generally India, if it is to become a knowledge driven economy, should be in the forefront as a first introducer of new advanced technologies. The so-called ‘Proven’ Technologies, unless followed by continuous evolutionary improvements, are often a synonym for obsolete technologies,

SUSTAINED INNOVATIONS

“The lesson of Bell Labs is that most feats of sustained innovation….

occur when people of diverse talents and mind-sets and expertise are brought together, preferably in close proximity.

economic growth and For fifty years, job creation were propelled by …… the willingness to nurture theoretical research in conjunction with applied science and manufacturing skills with Bell Labs and other such idea factories disappearing …. What will propel innovation … for the next 50 years.” Jon Gertner “The Idea Factory: Bell Labs….”, 2012 There is little doubt that fundamental science, applied research and manufacturing skills have to coexist to achieve sustained innovations in advanced technology areas.

R. Chidambaram

Nuclear applications for Human Well-being

Knowledge from the nuclear community is often helpful in pursing non-nuclear technologies …..

Within the energy sector, the nuclear community around the world, which the IAEA is uniquely positioned to network, can contribute significantly to other technologies.

In renewable energy technologies, for example, the nuclear community’s extensive knowledge is a valuable resource in areas such as thermal engineering, materials, and computational fluid dynamics.

from Report on “The Role of the IAEA to 2020 and Beyond”, prepared by an independent Commission at the request of the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency – 2008. I was a member of this Commission.

An Example of RuTAG/HESCO-BARC work in Uttarakhand (RuTAG is an Open Platform Innovation Strategy of PSA’s office) Identification of Recharge Zones to Drying Springs in Gaucher Here springs are the only available source of water for domestic and agricultural use.

Techniques applied include;

 

Measurement of environmental stable isotopic ratios of 18O/16O, 2H/1H and environmentally radioactive tritium.

Geomorphologic and hydrogeological data.

Based on the above analysis, artificial recharge structures were constructed at selected locations.

The rate of discharge increased three to nine times in many springs and also two new springs sprang up.

Almost all the springs have become perennial.

R. Chidambaram

from K. Shivanna, Gursharan Singh, A.P. Joshi et al, Current Science(2008)

For the next 2 or 3 decades, most of our capacity addition may come from coal burning. Need for Advanced USC coal-based plants, where the steam temperature is 700-750 deg.C.

Consortium of IGCAR, BHEL and NTPC – Dr. Baldev Raj spear-headed the initial effort, now Shri S.C. Chetal.

The most important issue here is the materials issue, that is where the capability of IGCAR, honed by their three decades of experience in the materials design and development of fast breeder reactors, becomes so important. DAE also has interest in high temperature reactors.

We need materials for boiler tubes and for turbine blades. While the main R&D project is aimed towards the full development of a 800 Mwe A-USC plant, my Office has supported two projects, which can be called pre-projects, one for the development of boiler tubes and the other for blade material. Two new indigenous materials have been developed by IGCAR for boiler tubes, with the help of MIDHANI and NFC.

304HCu SS Tubes Alloy 617 M tubes

Extrusion Of UNS S30432

Sup 304H-Cu Hot Extruded 89 mm OD x 14 WT blank Real Time Extrusion Parameter As Recorded By Data Acquisition System(DAS) Optical Micrographs of As extruded Sup 304H-Cu Hot Extruded 89 mm OD x 14 WT blank

Courtesy: EPP, NFC ( S. K. Jha )

Extrusion of UNS N6617

Extrusion Temperature-1105 0 C/ 1130 0 Ram Speed – 43mm/sec, 46 mm /sec C Optical Micrographs of As extruded and annealed Inconel 617 blank Optical Micrographs of As extruded and annealed In 617 blank Picture of finished In- 617 52 mm OD x 11.9 WT tube

Courtesy: EPP, NFC (

S. K. Jha )

Optical micrograph of finished Inconel 617 indicating uniform distribution of fine carbides

 From any energy producing system, a part goes to industry, a part for urban consumption but a part also goes to small towns and villages, which get better drinking water, better sanitation, better primary health care, all of which have an impact on health parameters, including life expectancy at birth, and therefore on the Human Development Index.

R. Chidambaram

The local economy in the regions around our nuclear power plants begins to flourish even during the execution of a nuclear power project, and of course after its completion.

Both urban and rural India require early introduction of important new advanced technologies and here India’s mission-oriented agencies (including nuclear) have played a catalytic role

Sustained Nuclear Power Growth is necessary for both rapid Industrial Development and rapid Rural Development.

Global Uranium Supply (Excerpts from “Uranium 2011: Resources, Production and Demand, a joint study by the OECD/NEA and IAEA 2012)

“… . Total identified resources are sufficient for over 100 years of supply based on current requirements.

… . Nuclear power remains a key part of the global energy mix … . With the strongest expansion expected in China, India, …… by the year 2035, … . world nuclear generating capacity is projected to increase 2010) by … from 370 GWe net (at the end of .. between 44% and 99%

…

Accordingly … . Uranium requirements are projected to rise from 63,875 tonnes of uranium metal (tu) at the end of 2010 to between 98,000 (tu) and 136,000 tu by 2035 …… . The deployment of advanced reactors and fuel cycle technologies can also positively affect the long term availability of uranium, conceivably extending the time horizon of the currently defined resource base to thousand of years” .

The Fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) concluded that the temperature changes between 2090 2099 relative to 1980-1999 will range from 1.1 to 6.4°C and sea level rise from 0.18 to 0.59 meters.

R. Chidambaram

EQUITY and the Climate Change Threat

Ultimate Equity implies same entitlement of per capita CO 2 e emissions for everyone in the world. India’s current CO 2 e emissions is about 2 tonnes per capita - China is four times higher and US fourteen times higher.

The “Durban Platform” for Enhanced Action of the UNFCCC meeting in December 2011 talks about raising “the level of ambition” and about launching “a process to develop a protocol, another legal instrument or an agreed outcome with legal force under the Convention applicable to all Parties…”. But this cannot be at the cost of equity.

Kyoto protocol talks of “common but differentiated responsibilities” among nations.

The Bali declaration confirmed this.

India went further at the Copenhagen Conference of parties to the UNFCCC “to reduce the emissions intensity of its GDP by 20-25 percent by 2020 in comparison with 2005”. * The expert group on Low-Carbon Strategy for Inclusive Growth of the Planning Commission, chaired by Dr. Kirit Parikh, has identified specific measures to achieve this.

* the quotes are from “India’s Low Carbon Growth Strategy” by Kirit Parikh and Nicholas Stern, Indian Express, 8 th June, 2012

Closing the Nuclear Fuel Cycle and the Climate Change Threat

Nuclear installed capacity with open and closed fuel cycle options

6000 5500 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 Nuclear installed capacity derived from nuclear energy growth profile of A1T scenario and achieved by closing the fuel cycle 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 Growth of installed capacity with uranium used in open fuel cycle to meet target profile of A1T scenario 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070

Year from Chidambaram, Sinha & Patwardhan, Nuclear Energy Review 2007 Nuclear is now an accepted mitigation technology in the context of the Climate Change Threat. But if it is to be a sustainable mitigation technology, you have to close the nuclear fuel cycle.

Kudankulam Nuclear Power Project

•

Advanced model of 2 x 1000 MWe VVER ( Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) ) type reactors have the state of art safety features , which were comprehensively reviewed by a task force of NPCIL (The report of the task force is available in the website of NPCIL and DAE)

•

Double containment- hermetically sealed .

•

Passive Heat Removal System .

• • •

Additional shut down systems. Core Catcher System.

No tsunami risk

•

State of art instrumentation systems

The KKNP first reactor will be commissioned shortly

Courtesy: MK Balaji

    

DAE/AERB Safety Review Post Fukushima

DAE/NPCIL constituted six Task Forces (TFs) to review consequences of occurrences of Fukushima-like situations in Indian NPPS, as directed by the Prime Minister.

These TFs made an assessment of safety of Indian NPPs assuming non-availability of motive power and design water supply routes and recommended further improvements.

The TFs finding: continued decay heat removal mechanisms exist in Indian NPPs.

All Indian NPPs are meeting current safety standards Recommended inclusion of extreme natural events in AERB documents, gave recommendations related to severe accident management analysis, guidelines and provisions.

(Courtesy: S.A. Bhardwaj)