Transcript No Slide Title

Suburban Silver Bullet:
Halve SOV Commutes
• Goals:
– Remove many cars from suburban office parks
• Current: 78% drive alone, 16% shared ride, 3% transit
– Intensify land use / reclaim parking lots
• What works?
– $10/day parking (effective, but unpopular)
– Hypothesis: PRT Shuttle + Digital Mobility
• PRT = Personal Rapid Transit
• No “lifestyle sacrifice”
• Year 2008 scenario.
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Customer-Centered Product Research
Literature
Experts
Product Concept
Interviews
Surveys
Validation
Commute
Refined Concept
• Silicon Valley style
• New technology bias
– High touch / community building is natural
– Takes on personality of researching organization
• Start with rough business case in mind and refine.
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PRT – Rapid Local Shuttle
• Feeder / Distributor / Circulator
– Similar to a monorail. Video
• High service level, no waiting, faster than a car.
– Non-stop, 30 MPH
– Bypasses intermediate stations
– Ride alone or with 1-2 people you choose
– Convenient stops by buildings (not on street)
– Comfortable, quiet, safe, no exhaust
– 24x7.
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PRT
• 5 mile alignment
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Vehicle Storage
Stanford Research Park
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In Palo Alto, CA
20,000 jobs
Campus-style
Parent of Silicon
Valley
• 50% asphalt
• Commute Shed:
– 47% within 2 miles
of Caltrain
– 49% within 10
miles
• 185 edge cities >
Memphis
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Promising Results (62 surveys)
• Promising, but not definitive
• Solo commutes: 89%  45%
– Carpool: 9%  32%, train: 0%  15.5% train
– For 20K people, removes 6,600 autos (roughly)
• @ 350 s.f. per space  50 acres  $326M hsng profit
• 1.32 PRT trips/day/person => 26K trips/day
– PRT: profitable (capital, O&M)
• Huge transit village  land value increase
• Apply to 6M workers in major emp. centers
– 1.98M cars, 12B VMT, 424M gals, 8.4B lbs CO2
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.
Comprehensive, Integrated Mobility
Door to Door
Train
first mile
Walk
Centralized Cars:
first mile
Bus
share, rent, ride home
Delivery services,
Personal activities,
Business services
•Web/wireless coordination
•Supportive policy context
•Scale!
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Bike, scooter, Segway
Smart jitney, hitchhike
Short carpool pick up
•Improved match-making
•Shared parking, nuride
Long carpool
PRT shuttle system
LAST MILE
mid-day trips
first mile
Cellular Solutions
• Marauder’s Map (GPS)
– Transit, rideshare connections
• Like NextBus
– Get home safe (Big Sister is watching).
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“New Suburbanist” Transit Village
Reduced auto dependence: < 50% SOV
trips (for workers, residents, & shoppers.)
Child/Senior mobility!
Efficient: transit node + vibrant place, shared
parking, lower living cost, less car ownership,
more time. A new choice! (versus buying
beyond the greenbelt).
Jobs/Housing Re-balance: workforce
housing
Personal Activities: Quality schools, day
care, hiking, parks, movies, grocery, banks,
restaurants, cafes, bars, grocery, gym,
massage, yoga, dentist, etc.
Business Services: Banks, PC store,
copies, FedEx, legal, accounting, etc.
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Train Station
Old transit village
20 acres
New retail
Jobs
New housing
Jobs
Extended T.O.D.
1280 acres
PRT shuttle system
Literature + Interviews + Surveys
• Large solo driving reduction is hard
• Last mile problem is very important
– Mid-day trips: 2X value of time
– Workers are unhappy with bus shuttles
• Each commuter: basket of objections
– PRT last mile is important, but not sufficient
• 30% time penalty: OK
• Carpool psychology is complex:
– Matchmaking: anonymous, superficial rejection (web dating)
– Sleep, uncertainty stress, and safety are important
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Short Caltrain or carpool with PRT: OK
Customer support: eliminate nightmares
Stranding: want “no penalty” emergency ride home
Good commute: “time went fast.”
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PRT status
• 2 companies developing
– Taxi 2000, Fridley (60’ track, 1 vehicle)
– ULTra, Cardiff, Wales (1km track, 2 vehicles)
• Heathrow procurement
• Dubai procurement (no public review!).
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PRT Investor Due Diligence
• The Team – entrepreneurial cost control, etc.
– IBM vs. IBM skunk works. Golem Group
• Control system design (architect spends 1/3 of time
writing documentation)
• Control system safety certification
– Public utilities commission?
– Each SW “version” requires painful re-certification
• Annual operating costs
– Video surveillance, etc.
– Insurance for the first system will be high
• Switch reliability (1 fail out of 2M trips  50 days)
• Performance degrades near capacity (wave-offs).
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PRT+D2D Economics
COSTS
PRT capital costs, 5 mi
Shared, automated parking
Annual PRT O&M
Pedestrian landscaping
ROW acquisition
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$M
50.0
4.9
3.0
?
0.0
ANNUAL REVENUE
PRT farebox
Caltrain increment
Ads - personal + wraps
6,600 parking sp. reduction
Eliminate bus shuttles
$0.50 daily smart parking
Use guideway for utilities
total
$M/year
4.9
2.7
3.5
4.0
0.3
1.3
0.3
16.9
OTHER REVENUE
50 acre housing profit
-1% job turnover/yr
Worker hsng preference
35% retail sales increase
cellular carrier preference
Exclusive delivery franchises
$M
326.3
20.0
?
?
?
?
END Silver Bullet
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