Transcript Document

School-to-work Transitions in a
Liberal Economy
Alison Wolf
King’s College London
The Modern Economy
• Free Trade
• Free Movement in some regions (notably most of the
EU), though heavy restrictions in global context
• Non-directed labour
• Minimal industrial policy
• Shift, in developed world, from fast growth in class 1
and 2 occupations to slow growth/steady state
• Decline in skilled manual trades – move to the
hourglass economy
The modern education system
• Increased average length: completion of upper
secondary normal in all developed countries
• Rapid rise in higher education numbers
• Delayed specialisation
• High returns to formal qualifications, absolutely and
relatively
• Wide variations in nature and status of
apprenticeship. Full-time ‘vocational’ pathways
generally common and rarely high-status pre-18
University enrolments at either end of the
twentieth century
Modern labour markets
• European countries and Japan marked by dual
labour markets: core of full-time jobs with
security and high benefits and periphery of
low-security, low-paid, short-term jobs
• North America: more fluid labour market,
much less job security, high levels of churn,
greater movement in numbers of jobs year on
year
The specific case of the UK
• Very low apprenticeship numbers for under18s: apprenticeship almost destroyed in
1980s, very partial return to health in 2000s
• Very high levels of regional inequality
• General stability in upper secondary academic
route and constant reform of upper secondary
vocational route
• Open access for EU accession state nationals
as well as longer-standing EU members
Employers’ view of where the formally
qualified are to be found: 1950
Graduates
Low ability
High ability
Employers’ view of where the formally
qualified are to be found: 2000
Graduates
Low ability
High ability
Employers’ perceptions of the labour market: 2050?
Graduates
Low quality
High quality
16-17 unemployment
40
ILO Unemployment Rate
ILO Unemployment as a proportion of age group
35
30
Per cent
25
20
15
10
5
0
1992
1993
Source: ONS
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
16-17 employment
80
Employment rate for those not in Full Time Education
Employment rate as a proportion of age group
70
60
Per cent
50
40
30
20
10
0
1992
1993
Source: ONS
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
18-24 year olds
Employment rate for those not in FTE
Employment rate as a proportion of age group
90
80
70
60
50
%
40
30
20
10
0
1992
1993
source: ONS
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Overall figures conceal huge
variations
Between and within regions and
counties or cities
August 2012:16-24 years: % claiming
Northumberland
8.4
County Durham
8.2
Caerphilly
10
Derry
13
Sandwell
12.1
Mid Suffolk
4.7
Wiltshire
3.7
South Oxfordshire
2.2
% 16-24 claiming: London area 8.12
Thurrock
6.2
Ashford
5.2
Reigate
3.1
Lewisham
7.5
Brent
6.5
Newham
7.5
Camden
3
Greenwich
6.4
Returns to vocational awards
• Poor to specific occupational awards obtained
in fulltime training/education
• Middling to ‘quasi-vocational’ (eg BTEC)
• Good to ‘proper’ apprenticeships: - reflects
return to work experience, demonstrated
persistence as much as to specific skills –
• Change in trade/occupation the rule rather
than the exception
Apprenticeship numbers
50,000
45,000
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
2005
2006
2007
16 years
2008
17 years
2009
18 years
2010 prov
16-18 Level 3 starts
30
25.4
25
23.5
22.5
23.6
23.3
20
15
14.2
13.7
11.9
11.2
11.2
10
5
0
2005/6
2006/7
2007/8
as % total starts for this age group
2008/9
as % all apprenticeship starts
2009/10
Intermediate apprenticeship starts: proportional
change
300
250
200
2009-10
150
2010-11 (to date)
100
50
0
Under 19
19-24
25+
total
Advanced apprenticeship starts:
proportional change
250
200
150
2009-10
2010-11 to date
100
50
0
Under 19
19-24
25+
125
The challenge
• Improve apprenticeships
• Increase value of FT-based vocational
• Recognise reality of modern labour market –
need to retrain/move between sectors
• Address disappearance of youth labour
market – can decline be reversed?