Transcript World Energy Outlook

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
World Energy Outlook
Key Challenges Ahead of us
Energy Risk Europe 2006
3 October 2006, London
International Energy Agency
© OECD/IEA (2006)
Challenge 1:
Security of Supply
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© OECD/IEA (2006)
International Crude Oil Prices, WTI
90
80
dollars per barrel
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1970
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1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Real $ (2005)
Nominal
Average real price - 1980s
Average real price - 2000-2005
Crude oil prices has risen since 2002, reaching new highs in 2004 and
2005 – the price of WTI hit $78 in August 2006 © OECD/IEA (2006)
Spare Refinery Capacity
(kb/d)
12,000
11,000
10,000
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
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2006*
2005*
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
5,000
Significant amount of investment is needed to reverse the downward trend
in global oil refining spare capacity
© OECD/IEA (2006)
World Primary Oil Demand, 1971-2005
90
80
Total
70
mb/d
60
50
Non-transport sectors
40
30
20
Transport sector
10
0
1970
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1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
The share of transport is increasing at the cost of all other
sectors.
© OECD/IEA (2006)
OECD Oil Demand Growth by Sector,
1999-2005
2.5
2
1.5
mb/d
1
0.5
0
-0.5
-1
-1.5
Power
Generation
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Industry
Transport
In the OECD, the transport sector accounted for
almost all the oil demand growth
© OECD/IEA (2006)
Vehicle Ownership, 2004
vehicles per thousand people
900
USA
800
700
Germany
Italy
600
France
Canada
500
Japan
UK
400
Poland
300
Russia
Malaysia
Korea
Israel
200
Mexico
Brazil
Thailand
100
Indonesia
China
0
India
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
GDP per capita (dollars)
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The potential for increased vehicle ownership in emerging markets
is enormous
© OECD/IEA (2006)
New Car Registrations, 2004
20
Car sales (million)
15
10
Brazil
India
5
CIS
China
0
OECD Europe
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OECD North
America
OECD Pacific
non OECD
Non-OECD markets currently account for one-third of global new
car sales – but the share is growing rapidly
© OECD/IEA (2006)
Pump Price of Diesel in Developing Asian
Countries, February 2006
India
Thailand
Indonesia
China
Sri Lanka
Vietnam
Philippines*
Malaysia
Indicative average
delivered cost of
imported diesel
Myanmar
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
US cents per litre
*Nov. 2004 data for the Philippines
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Most developing Asian countries subsidise diesel, cushioning demand
from rises in international prices
© OECD/IEA (2006)
World Primary Energy Demand
18 000
16 000
14 000
Oil
Mtoe
12 000
10 000
8 000
Gas
6 000
Coal
4 000
2 000
Other renewables
0
1971
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1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
Nuclear
Hydro
2030
Oil, gas and coal together account for 83% of the growth in energy
demand between now and 2030 in the Reference Scenario
Regional Shares in World Primary Energy
Demand
100%
22%
39%
80%
49%
16%
60%
10%
9%
40%
62%
51%
20%
42%
0%
1971
OECD
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2003
Transition economies
2030
Developing countries
Two-thirds of the increase in world demand between 2003 and
2030 comes from developing countries, especially in Asia
Incremental World Primary Oil Demand
by Sector, 2005-2015
70
60
50
40
%
30
20
10
0
Transport
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Industry
Residential
Power
Generation
Services
Others
Transport will account for the bulk of the increase in oil demand
through 2015, making demand less sensitive to crude oil prices
© OECD/IEA (2006)
World Oil Production Shifts Away from
OECD
10.2 mb/d
2.2 mb/d
20.2 mb/d
30.9 mb/d
13.5 mb/d
OECD
MENA
Other
NCO
41.2 mb/d
50.5 mb/d
29.0 mb/d
2004
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2030
Global oil production climbs from 82 mb/d in 2004 to
115 mb/d in 2030; OECD share falls from 25% to 12%
© OECD/IEA (2006)
World Proven Oil Reserves
Non-MENA
39%
Saudi
Arabia
20%
Other
MENA
14%
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Kuwait
8%
Iran
10%
Iraq
9%
MENA share of global oil reserves is much higher than its share of
current production, suggesting strong potential for growth
© OECD/IEA (2006)
MENA Net Oil Exports
mb/d
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MENA plays an increasingly important role in international trade, its net
exports surging from 22 mb/d in 2004 to 39 mb/d in 2030
Net Oil Imports by OECD Regions
18
15
mb/d
12
9
6
3
0
2004
2030
2004
OECD North
America
OECD Europe
MENA
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2030
2004
2030
OECD Pacific
non MENA
OECD Europe will rely more on MENA oil – imports from MENA reach
8.5 mb/d, or nearly two-thirds of total imports in 2030
Proven Natural Gas Reserves
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Gas reserves, concentrated in the Middle East & the transition
economies, are equal to 66 years of current production
© OECD/IEA (2006)
MENA Natural Gas Exports
Billion cubic metres
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MENA becomes the world’s leading gas exporter, with most of the
increase in exports meeting surging European & US LNG demand
© OECD/IEA (2006)
Net Natural Gas Imports by OECD Regions
600
500
Mtoe
400
300
200
100
0
OECD North America
OECD Europe
2003
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2010
OECD Pacific
2030
OECD Europe will see its net imports grow from 200 bcm in 2003 to
500 bcm in 2030, meeting 64% of the region’s total gas demand
EU Gas Supply Balance
800
bcm
600
400
200
0
1980
1990
2004
Production
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2010
2020
2030
Net imports
Rising demand – mainly for power generation – and declining
output will cause net imports to surge
© OECD/IEA (2006)
EU Power Generation Capacity
Increases, 2004-2030
1200
1000
GW
800
600
400
200
0
2005
2010
2015
Existing
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2020
2025
2030
New
More than half of the existing capacity will need to be
replaced by 2030
© OECD/IEA (2006)
Challenge 2:
Carbon Dioxide Emissions
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© OECD/IEA (2006)
World Energy-Related CO2 Emissions
20 000
Mt of CO2
16 000
12 000
8 000
4 000
0
1970
1980
OECD
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1990
2000
Transition economies
2010
2020
2030
Developing countries
Global emissions grow 50% between now and 2030, and developing
countries’ emissions will overtake OECD’s in the 2020s
© OECD/IEA (2006)
CO2 Emissions Growth 2004-2030
4 000
15
2030
million tonnes
2004
Pacific
Europe
2 000
6
2030
North
America
1 000
2004
0
3
0
China
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9
tonnes per capita
3 000
12
OECD
OECD CO2 emissions growth are about three quarters of Chinese CO2
rise, but on a per capita basis, OECD emissions will be still two times
© OECD/IEA (2006)
higher in 2030
Fulfilling the G8 Mandate
At the G8 Summit in July 2005, the IEA was called upon to
“advise on alternative energy scenarios and strategies aimed
at a clean, clever and competitive energy future”.
World
Alternative
Policy Scenario
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© OECD/IEA (2006)
World Alternative Policy Scenario (WAPS)
 Mandate by G-8 leaders and proposal to IEA Ministers
 Analyses impact of new environmental & energy-security
policies worldwide
 OECD: Policies currently under consideration
 Non-OECD: Also includes more rapid declines in energy
intensity resulting from faster deployment of more-efficient
technology
 Impact on fuel mix, CO2 emissions & investment needs
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© OECD/IEA (2006)
Key Policies in Alternative Scenario for EU
More than 100 policies at EU level and 300 at country level
Power Generation
 Renewable energy directive
 CHP directive
 ETS
 Transport sector
 Prolongation of the ACEA voluntary agreement
 Biofuels target
 Residential and commercial sectors
 Eco-design
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 Energy performance in buildings directive
© OECD/IEA (2006)
Oil/Gas Demand in the Reference and
Alternative Policy Scenarios
140
6000
120
5000
12.1 mb/d
500 bcm
4000
80
3000
60
2000
40
1000
20
0
0
Oil
2004
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bcm
mb/d
100
2030 Reference Scenario
Gas
2030 Alternative Scenario
Oil & gas demand in the Alternative Scenario are both 10% lower in
2030 due to significant energy savings and a shift in the energy mix
© OECD/IEA (2006)
EU CO2 Emissions in the Reference &
Alternative Scenarios
5 000
Mt of CO 2
4 500
4 000
3 500
Kyoto Target
3 000
2 500
2 000
1990
2000
Reference Scenario
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2010
2020
2030
Alternative Scenario
With new policies, EU CO2 emissions stabilise by 2010 and fall
after 2020
© OECD/IEA (2006)
Contributory Factors in CO2 Reduction
2003-2030
100%
5%
10%
80%
12%
20%
21%
60%
4%
8%
21%
5%
17%
15%
7%
1%
7%
10%
40%
58%
20%
63%
67%
Transition economies
Developing countries
49%
0%
World
OECD
End-use efficiency gains
Fuel switching in end uses
Increased nuclear in power generation
Increased renewables in power generation
Changes in the fossil-fuel mix in power generation
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Improvements in end-use efficiency contribute for more than
half of decrease in emissions, and renewables use for 20%
© OECD/IEA (2006)
Share of Non-Hydro Renewables in
Electricity Generation, 2030
OECD Europe
OECD North America
OECD Pacific
East Asia
Latin America
China
South Asia
Middle East
Africa
Transition economies
0%
5%
10%
Alternative Scenario
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15%
20%
25%
Reference Scenario
New policies would boost the share of non-hydro-renewables in
all regions – most in the EU in absolute terms
© OECD/IEA (2006)
Difference in European Electricity Investment in
the Alternative vs. Reference Scenario
2003-2030
150
100
billion dollars
50
Efficiency
measures
Avoided supply-side investment
Difference
0
- 50
- 100
Additional demand-side
investment
Generation,
Transmission
&
Distribution
- 150
- 200
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Additional investments on the demand side more than offset by
lower investment on the supply side
© OECD/IEA (2006)
Summary & Conclusions
 Projected market trends raise serious concerns
 Increased risk for energy security
 Rising environmental concerns
 More vigorous policies would curb rate of increase
in energy demand and emission significantly
 But a truly sustainable energy system will call for
faster technology development & deployment
 Urgent and decisive government action needed
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WEO 2006 – Alternative Scenario
 World Alternative Policy Scenario
 a “tool for change”
 Deepening and broadening the analysis
 New analysis in World Alternative Policy Scenario
 Database with more than a thousand policies and measures
 Economic comparison (capital cost and fuel expenditure)
 Co-operation with World Bank, UNEP, EU, centers of excellence in
key developing countries (China, India, Brazil)
 Beyond Alternative Policy Scenario
 What options to stabilise CO2 emissions by 2030 and limit oil
demand growth
 What implications for beyond 2030
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© OECD/IEA (2006)
WEO 2006 – Special chapters
 Impact of Higher Energy Prices
 Energy Price Trends and Relationships (oil, gas , coal and
electricity)
 Impact on energy demand and macroeconomy
 Energy Policy Implications
 Role for Nuclear
 Availability of uranium and costs
 Economics of new reactors
 Nuclear investments in competitive markets
 Prospects for Biofuels
 Realistic outlook of how far they can take us
 Economics of biofuels production/consumption
 Reference, Alternative Scenario and Beyond
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© OECD/IEA (2006)