Transcript Diapositiva 1

The impact of climate change today
and on the world of tomorrow
Dr. Raffaele Salerno
Head of Research, Development and Production
Epson Meteo Centre
Brussels, 2 June 2008
Epson Meteo Centre
• A private independent applied meteo
research organisation, established in 1995
• Weather forecasting and seasonal outlooks
• Internal HPCF*(1 Teraflop)
• Numerous modelling applications including
climate predictions
• International research projects and
collaboration
• Application of weather research to industry,
agriculture, communications, transportation,
energy and oil companies, as well as media
(newspapers, radio, television, web)
*High Performance Computing Facility
Brussels, 2 June 2008
Climate change is now!
• Weather records of 2005
• One of the warmest years on historical record:
0.62 °C above the 1880 - 2004 mean temperature
0.53 °C above the 1961-1990 mean temperature
almost same as in 1998, but without ‘El Nino’
• Second highest in the Northern Hemisphere, sixth in
Southern Europe in terms of surface temperature
• Regionally the highest temperature in Australia and the
highest average temperature recorded in Canada and
Siberia
• Global carbon dioxide concentration rose 2 ppm, slightly
above the 1.6 ppm/year observed since 1980
• Cost: global economic losses of $200 billion dollars
($125 billion = Katrina; previous record = $175 billion in
1995)
Brussels, 2 June 2008
Laika Glacier in 2005, compared to 1971
Coast line
Google-Earth, 2005
Brussels, 2 June 2008
Signs of climatic change: glaciers and mountains
ARCTIC
Coburg Island and Pond Inlet, CA
next picture
1975
2005
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Climate change: recent developments
• Prediction of the warming of
the upper troposphere by
better-mixed greenhouse
gases as at the end of this
century.
• Recent evidence of
anomalous temperatures in
the upper troposphere have
been observed from
December 2007 to January
2008 in South America
(NB: NEW results not yet published)
Brussels, 2 June 2008
Climate prediction based on past climate
• The past behaviour of
Earth’s climate provides
powerful insight into what
may happen in the future
•
Example: A cold period,
known as ‘Little Ice Age’
occurred between 1300 and
1850. This period was
characterised by severe
winters and shifting climate
regimes
A frozen canal in the Netherlands in a
painting by P. Breughel is evidence of
the
Little Ice Age
Brussels, 2 June 2008
Emission scenarios
Future anthropogenic CO2
emissions will be the product
of different drivers such as
demographic development,
socioeconomic
development, and
technological changes.
Brussels, 2 June 2008
Global Surface Air Temperature
Temperature scenarios
20
18
4.0 °C
17
16
2.0 °C
15
today
14
2050
13
12
Year
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2096
2087
2078
2069
2060
2051
2042
2033
2024
2015
2006
1997
1988
1979
1970
11
1961
Temperature (°C)
19
Stabilising
Without
at
Global any
445–490
significant
ppm
CO2-equivalent)
mitigation
could
action,
limit
temperature
global meanwill
rise 2°C by
temperature
increases
2°C
2050 andto
this
is
above
not the
theworst
preindustrial
scenario
level
Climate prediction
• Maximum surface temperature
Winter
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Spring
Climate prediction
• Maximum surface temperature
Summer
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Autumn
Climate prediction
Global precipitation
mm
Precipitation
Distribution of
may
be theAutumn
Autumn
precipitations
best
350,000
as for the end
indication
of
340,000
of century
climate
330,000
change. This
320,000
is the global
310,000
precipitation
300,000
in mm/yr
290,000
which shows
280,000
a tendency
increase
after 2015
Year
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Impacts
• Climate change has direct effects on
•
physical and biological systems on all
continents and in most oceans
Effects on humans:
– excessive mortality in Europe
– evidence of changes in the distribution of
some human disease vectors in parts of
Europe, Africa, Asia
– earlier onset and increase in the
seasonal production of allergenic pollen
in mid and high latitudes of the Northern
Hemisphere
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Impacts
On 10 summits in the Bernina region, Swiss Alps
Universities of Zürich and Hannover, October 2005
3262 m
2959 m
Ca. 1930
1980
2005
- More then a doubling of the number of species over the last 75
years
- A further doubling from the present day to the year 2050
- Acceleration of the increasing number of species
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2050
Impacts
• Socioeconomic impacts:
–
–
–
–
–
migrations due to sea rise
tourism
agriculture
freshwater availability
increasing costs due to
modification to biological
system and human health
impact
Brussels, 2 June 2008
Impacts
• Flooding, land loss, salinisation of
groundwater and the destruction of
and snow cover evolution
buildings Artic
and ice
infrastructures
in July, from present day to 2050
• >1500 million
people will be
Darker colours mean greater
exposed todepths,
increased
water
resource
light red
colour
means
thinner
stress by the
yearlayers,
2050 white means no
ice or snow
• >2 millions km2 of land will
experience vegetation dieback
• >10 million people will be flooded in
coastal areas
Brussels, 2 June 2008
Impacts
South Engadine, Switzerland
Heavy
precipitation
hit the
Northen
Swiss Alps,
21-23
August
2005.
During the ‘multisecular event‘
rain fell up to 3400 m and caused
a lot of debris in the mountains, due to:
- glacial retreat
- ice exposure
Brienz, Bern
- retreating permafrost
Region, Switzerland
Brussels, 2 June 2008
Vulnerability reduction
• Specific policies and programmes
• Individual initiatives
• Participatory planning processes and other
community approaches
• Promotion of environmental quality
• Transforming current practices for
environmental resources into sustainable
management practices
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Mitigation
• We need negative net emissions towards the end of
•
•
•
this century
Mitigation efforts over the next two or three decades will
have a major impact on opportunities to achieve lower
stabilisation levels.
Emissions are required to decline before 2015 and
further reduced to less than 50% of today’s emissions
by 2050
Multi-gas emissions reduction scenarios are needed
(able to meet climate targets at substantially lower costs
compared to a CO2-only strategy).
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Remarks
•
Greenhouse Gas Reduction required:
• Carbon Dioxide : 60%
• Methane : 20%
• Nitrous Oxide : 80%
However, a 60% cut in carbon dioxide emissions, either
now or over the next few years, will be almost impossible to
achieve.
Even the most optimistic IPCC emissions scenario
foresees a rise in carbon emissions by 2025, with only
a gradual decline by the year 2100
Brussels, 2 June 2008
Conclusions
• If climate model projections prove to be even moderately
accurate, global temperatures by the end of this century
will be higher than at any time during the last 120,000
years.
• Failure to introduce some form of global greenhouse gas
emission reduction strategy will merely extend the timeframe
of global warming that humanity is already witnessing, with
very serious consequences for ecosystems and mankind,
including risks of unsustainable social and economic costs
which can lead to unpredictable direct consequences in
many parts of our planet.
Brussels, 2 June 2008
Thank you for listening
Brussels, 2 June 2008