Transcript Power Resource Management - University of Western Ontario

Power Resource Management
with assistance of
Kevin Gawne
Karl Reznichek
and
Dave Cormie
1
Basics of Hydroelectric Generation
2
Hydroelectric Generating Station
Dam
Forebay
Spillway
Powerhouse
Tailrace
3
Cross Section of a Typical Hydro Unit
Forebay
Vertical Axis
Head (H)
Generator
Tailrace
Turbine
Efficiency (e)
4
Power = Flow x Head x efficiency x constant
Introduction to
Manitoba Hydro System
5
Nelson and Churchill River Drainage Basins
6
System Map
Total Installed Capacity 5480 MW
Southern
Indian Lake
N
Stephens L.
Laurie
River
Lake Winnipeg Regulation
•
Cross Lake
Limestone
Cross Lake
Long Spruce
Kettle
Kelsey
Jenpeg
Split L.
Ominawin
Bypass
HVdc
Jenpeg
Lake
Winnipeg
Grand
Rapids
Brandon
Selkirk
70% of Capacity on
More
than 90%
Lower Nelson
River:
- Kettle (1232 MW)
Playgreen
Hydraulic
Based
Generation
Lake
- Long Spruce (1023 MW)
- Limestone (1330 MW)
Pine Falls
Great Falls
McArthur Falls
Seven Sisters
Pointe du Bois
Slave Falls
8-Mile Channel
•
Norway House
2-Mile Channel
Lake Winnipeg
•
7
Warren Landing
Interconnected Transmission System
8
Conawapa
Potential New
Generation
and HVdc
Gull
New HVdc
Wuskwatim
Candidate Plants
- Wuskwatim (200 MW)
- Gull (630 MW)
- Conawapa (1400 MW)
Winnipeg
9
Variability of Hydraulic Supply
Historic
Energy
Fromequivalent)
Inflows
(inflows
measured
as energy
55
50
Annual Energy in TWh
45
40
35
30
Manitoba Consumption
25
20
15
10
5
1940/1941 Drought
Last 12 Months of Inflows
(Feb 1, 2003 to Jan 31, 2004)
0
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
10
2000
Wet: Winnipeg River June 8-10, 2002
Precipitation
11
Wet …
12
Wet: June 2002
Upper English River at Sioux Lookout
13
Wet: Spill at Pointe du Bois, 2002
14
Dry: Winter 02/03 Precipitation
% of normal
15
Dry: Lake of the Woods, 2003
16
Flow Forecasting
17
Load Forecasting
Manitoba Load
Tuesday 9 am
4000
Load is related to time of year, day of
week, hour of day, temperature,
other
3750
3500
Load in MW
3250
3000
2750
2500
2250
2000
Heating Cooling
1750
1500
-35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5
0
5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Temperature in C
18
Market Forecast
YEAR
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
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SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Water Supply &
Manitoba Electrical Demand
WATER
SUPPLY
DEMAND
DEMAND
WINTER
SUMMER
WINTER
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Manitoba and Export Demand
(a typical week)
5000
4500
MW
4000
3500
EXPORT
3000
Real Time
2500
Day Ahead
Forward
2000
1500
Manitoba
1000
500
0
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday Thursday
Friday
Saturday
Sunday
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Power Resource Management
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Power Resource Management
• Manage Manitoba Hydro’s system of reservoirs,
hydro stations, thermal stations, and tielines in the
most economic and secure manner possible
• Meet or exceed regulatory requirements
• Consider environment and waterway users
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Power Resource Management
SUPPLY
Uncertainty
Licences
Social and Environmental
- inflows, storage, coal, gas
- imports
- plant capability
Resource Management
Decisions
DEMAND
- domestic load
- exports
- outages
- losses
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Decisions
•
•
•
•
Hydraulic stations (generate or spill?)
Thermal stations (generate?)
Reservoirs (store or release?)
Energy (buy or sell?)
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Uncertain Aspects
•
•
•
•
•
Inflows into reservoirs
Manitoba load
Ice effects on river hydraulics
Export/import market prices
Thermal fuel costs
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Key Resource Management Decision Lake Winnipeg Outflow
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Decision Considerations
• Multi-stakeholder
– e.g. Lake of the Woods
• Multi-jurisdictional
– Saskatchewan R. (AB, SK, MB)
– Winnipeg R. (USA, ON, MB)
• Environment
• Transportation
• Recreation
Addressed through:
• Boards, Licences, Agreements,
Programs, Facilities, Operating
Guidelines
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Lac La Croix * 1.00
Rat Rapids Dam
Lake St. Joseph
Laurie River * 1.00
Laurie River Forebay
Lac La Croix
System Model
Laurie River
Lake St. Joseph * 1.00
Namakan River
Root River Dam
Namakan Lake Local * 1.00
Lac Seul Local * 1.00
English River * 1.00
Sturgeon R. at McDougall * 1.00
Lake Winnipeg
Namakan Lake
Lac Seul
Ear Falls
Nelson West Channel
Nelson East
Channel
Kettle Falls
Chukuni River * 1.00
Trout Lake River * 1.00
Cedar River * 1.77
Ear Falls Adjustment * 1.00
Jenpeg
Rainy Lake
Pakwash Lake
Manitou Falls
Powerhouse
Jenpeg Forebay
Rainy Lake Local * 1.00
Manitou Falls
Spillway
Gunisao River * 1.012
Upper Nelson River
Adjustment * 0.505
Fort Frances
Cedar River * 2.62
Wabigoon River * 1.00
Long Legged River * 1.00
Lake of the Woods
Local * 1.00
Ball Lake
Lake of the Woods
Cross Lake
Cross Lake Outlet
Ball Lake Outlet
Upper Nelson River
Adjustment * 0.495
Norman Dam
Sturgeon R. at Salveson * 0.64
Separation Lake
Sipiwesk Lake
Sturgeon R. at Salveson * 0.96
Burntwood River
* 1.00
Sipiwesk Lake Outlet
Separation Lake Outlet
Sand Lake
Sturgeon R. at Salveson * 1.63
Whitedog Falls
Powerhouse
Umfreville Lake
Kelsey Forebay
Whitedog Falls Spillway
Caribou Falls
Spillway
Caribou Falls Powerhouse
Thompson
Seaplane Base
Burntwood
River
Kelsey
Sturgeon R. at Salveson * 1.46
Wpg. River Adj. * 1.00
Pointe du Bois Forebay
Pointe du Bois
Slave Falls Forebay
Saskatchewan River * 1.00
Saskatchewan River Local * 1.00
Slave Falls
Odei River * 1.54
Grass River * 1.00
Kettle River * 0.84
Split Lake Adj. * 1.00
Split Lake
Split Lake Outlet
Whiteshell River * 2.69
Cedar Lake
Natalie Lake
Grand Rapids
Kettle River * 0.99
Stephens Lake
Seven Sisters
Bird River * 1.00
Whitemouth River * 1.00
Whiteshell River * 2.43
Kettle
Kettle River * 1.07
Lac Du Bonnet
McArthur
Great Falls Forebay
Great Falls
Assiniboine River * 0.00
Berens Pigeon Rivers * 1.25
Bloodvein River * 1.00
Fairford River * 1.00
Gunisao River * 2.18
Lake Winnipeg Local * 1.00
Poplar River * 1.38
Red River at Lockport * 1.00
Bird River * 1.14
Long Spruce Forebay
Long Spruce
Kettle River * 3.23
Limestone Forebay
Pine Falls Forebay
Limestone
Pine Falls
LEGEND
Hudson Bay
Generating Station
Lake Inflow
Outlet
Control
HERMES
Manitoba Hydro System Hydraulic Schematic
EMMA
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Lake
1
2003/10/07
Rev. No.
Date
MH_System_HERMES_Schematic.ppt
File Name
System Model
• Decision variables
• reservoir storage (STt),
• turbine release (Rt),
• spill (St)
• produced energy (HEs,t),
• imported energy (IEs,t), and
• exported energy (EEs,t).
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System Model
• Objective function
 

Maximize   ( HCs ,t  HEs ,t  EBs ,t  EEs ,t  ICs ,t  IEs ,t  SCt  St    BT  STT

 t  s
HCs,t - the hydro energy production cost;
EBs,t - the export energy benefit;
ICs,t - the import energy cost;
SCt - the cost of spilling water; and
BT - the benefit from saving the water for future production.
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System Model
• Nonlinear hydro production function
E    Q  H  t  e(Q, H )
• Linearized by assuming a constant value for the
head (H) and efficiency (e).
• Iterative Linear Programming optimization
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System Model
• Other constraints
– Flow continuity
STt  STt 1  Rt  St  It
– Tieline load
IEs ,t  RATIO
( IEF  EEF )  EEs ,t

EMLs ,t
EEF  DPSt
– Supply and demand
HEs,t  IEs,t  EEs,t  Ls,t  DPSt Ws,t
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System Model
– Minimum storage
STt  MAX (STMINt , STˆt VARYMX )
– Maximum storage
STt  MIN (STMAXt , STˆt  VARYMX )
– Hydro energy relation to release
 (HE
s ,t
)  ERF (STMAX t )  Rt  0
s
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System Model
• Linear Programming Optimization
– 100’s of decision variables
– 1,000’s of constraints
– 1,000,000’s of dollars benefits for the utility and
residents of Manitoba
• Optimal use of power resource
• Taking advantage of the system structure
• Taking advantage of energy market
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