Transcript Design of a Generic Efficient Negotiation Strategy

Designing Bidding Strategies
Dmytro Tykhonov
Seller
Buyer
Counter-offer?
Price: €500,000
buyer
Strategies
Genius
Preferences
seller
Opponent Preferences?
Open
Partially shared
Closed
Outcome Space
Price: €500,000
Price: €300,000
Utility of Opponent
Pareto
frontier
Price: €350,000
My Utility
Fundamental Problem of Negotiation
Agreement
Utility of Opponent
Learn opponent’s
preferences
Adapt strategy
My Utility
5
Predictable versus
Unpredictable Preferences
Predictable preferences
• Most people prefer to have
more rather than less money.
utility
Learn opponent’s
preferences
Unpredictable preferences
• I like blue more than red, you
like red more than blue.
utility
money

Monotonic preference
 Logarithmic curve for money
• Higher > Lower Grade
• Less > More Work
red
blue
green
…
 Varies from person to person
 Not quite as well-behaved
• Peugeot > Ford
• Swim > Cycle Ride
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Learning Model of
Opponent Preferences
Learn opponent’s
preferences
Utility of Opponent
Negotiation moves by Opponent
My Utility
Utility
Hypotheses
delivery date
Nice Matching Strategy
Adapt strategy
Utility of Opponent
Next bid on
the Pareto
Mirrored bid
matches
My Utility
Pareto efficient
frontier
Utility of Opponent
Response to a selfish move
Pareto
efficient
frontier
matches
My Utility
Adapt strategy
Next bid on
the Pareto
Human vs Computer Negotiations
GENIUS
Future Work
• Explanation of bidding advice:
• here is a trade-off
• signaling (tit-for-tat)
• Multi-party negotiation
• Improving the strategy
• Competition of negotiating agents in GENIUS