Transcript Slide 1

Academic Performance and Persistence of Washington State University Students
Vicki A. McCracken, Professor, School of Economic Sciences
Fran Hermanson, Associate Director, Institutional Research
Abstract
Methodology
• Improving student success in postsecondary education is a
key federal, state, and university objective that is inseparable
from the focus on increasing student access.
•
Institutional data for 5 cohorts of students that entered WSU
(Pullman) as new freshmen were available. Detail included
information about the student prior to enrolling and then at
the end of 1st semester, 1st year, and subsequent years.
•
Success was measured by retention and GPA at key points
in time and eventual graduation from WSU. Descriptive
information provides a context for student success at WSU.
•
Statistical techniques used account for the panel-nature of
the data (cohorts of students followed over time) and the
discreteness of one of the dependent variables (retained or
not). Statistical tests indicate the importance of accounting
for cohort (defined by the term that students entered) in the
empirical model.
• In 2007, WSU appointed a Council to look at retention of
WSU students and to develop plans to encourage student
graduation. The Council used descriptive institutional data to
make recommendations.
• This research builds on the work of the Council and uses
statistical techniques to identify factors associated with
retention and success of WSU students. Nationally, freshmen
account for over a quarter of all attrition at 4-year public
institutions (Tinto, 1993).
• The results presented here (part of the larger study) focus
mainly on the 1st year experience and specifically identity
variables that explain student success.
Descriptive Information
% Retained to
GPA
Entry term
Explanatory Variables
Explanatory variables (individual student basis) include
information about Pell eligibility, race, gender, residency, high
school GPA, standardized test score (SAT or equivalent), AP
courses; and variables related to 1st semester or year in college,
such as:
•
Student Recreation Center usage
•
whether a varsity athlete
•
•
•
1
2nd Semester
2nd Year
1st Semester
Cumulative1
2nd Semester
2003
.935
.837
2.86
2.94
3.43
1067
.46
.89
2004
.954
.846
2.84
2.92
3.45
1073
.48
.89
2005
.935
.818
2.81
2.88
3.45
1109
.50
.92
2006
.931
.839
2.74
2.90
3.45
1104
.50
.90
2007
.939
.815
2.77
2.88
3.41
1111
.50
.87
2008
-
-
-
-
3.48
1116
.49
.87
simultaneously taking biology/chemistry/math
and an interest area in a STEM (Science, Technology,
• Persistence and performance in high school, measured by
High School GPA, is the best single predictor of College GPA
and increases the probability of retention (in a positive
manner).
% Male
% Residents
Semester 1 GPA1
Retained2
Semester 2 GPA1
Retained2
Rec Center
.105**
1.01**
.125**
1.01**
SSS
.018**
3.01
.023**
1.64
Pell
-.038**
.77*
-.038**
.72**
Race (white)
.020**
.78*
0.15*
.93
Gender (male)
-.069**
1.20*
-.096**
.94
Resident (WA)
-.030**
1.38*
-.026**
1.48**
Athlete
.054**
2.70**
.050**
2.04**
Greek
-.003
1.74**
.003
1.60**
Honors
.024**
1.89
.029**
1.23
High School GPA
.424**
1.89**
.440**
2.50**
SAT
.162**
1.00
.185**
1.00
STEM
-.108**
1.25*
-.129**
.97
Biochem math
-.040**
2.06*
-.050**
1.48**
AP
.082**
1.83**
.074**
1.50**
Others
*p<0.05 (2-tailed), **p<0.01 (2-tailed)
1
2
Results presented are the standardized or beta coefficients from the regression.
Results presented are the odds ratios from the logistic regression.
Implications
• Performance on standardized tests, SAT, is a solid (positive)
predictor of College GPA but does not significantly impact the
probability of retention.
• All Retention and GPA models identify consistent and statistically
significant predictors of success during the 1st year. However, a
large amount of unexplained variation in success suggests that
(for modeling purposes) additional variables need to be included.
• These results suggest an admission process selecting students
based on individual potential for success should consider factors
other than high school GPA and standardized test scores.
• Retention efforts should identify students based on other (than
high school GPA and standardized test scores) risk factors.
Retention at WSU starts to fall below its peers by the start of the
2nd year (at a level of .84 relative to .89 in 2006, CSRDE1).
• Additional research is underway to identify other risk factors,
using more information on the total financial aid package of
students, characteristics of the high school attended, self reported
expectations of preparedness and difficulties expected in college
(BCSSE), SAT writing score…and more.
• Higher Recreation Center usage is associated with higher
College GPA and higher probability of retention (a result that
continued beyond the first year).
• Varsity Athlete status increases the odds of a student being
retained, and is linked to higher GPAs (all else the same).
• Federal Pell Grant eligibility is associated with lower College
GPAs and probability of retention, indicating financial
constraints negatively impact student success. Participation in
the Student Support Services Programs increases College
GPA but does not significantly impact retention.
• Students who take the science/engineering “trifecta” courses
(Biology/Chemistry/Math) in the first semester and/or have a
STEM interest area have significantly lower GPA but are more
likely retained during their 1st and subsequent years at WSU.
SAT
Selected Results
affiliation with Greek system or Honors College
Key Findings
HS GPA
GPA entering 2nd year.
Variables
Engineering, and Math) discipline.
Student Entry Information
Reference
Tinto, V. 1993. Leaving College: Rethinking the Causes and Cures of
Student Attrition (2nd edition). Chicago: The University of Chicago Press.
1 Consortium for Student Retention Data Exchange (CSRDE), University of Oklahoma