Transcript Setting the Scene

Operation Thekgo - Principals Driving
Total System Reliability & Capacity
AMUE Convention
16 October 2007
Greg Tosen
Contents
• Key Demand & Supply Side Challenges facing South Africa
• Total System Capacity & Reliability (TSC&R) – the Thekgo Approach
• TSC&R Journey (last 18 months)
– Emergency Preparedness
– Short-term Reliability
– Reliability Enhancement & Role out
• Conclusions
Operation Thekgo
2
South African Electricity Situation
Operation Thekgo
3
Electricity Demand and Supply – key
challenges
•
South Africa has reached the end of its surplus generation capacity
•
1st challenge: Avoiding mismatch between demand and supply
– Excess capacity - stranded resources
– Capacity shortage - constrained economic growth
•
2nd challenge: Correct choice of capacity to be constructed from an
array of available options that differ dramatically in terms of:
– Cost (construction and operating)
– Lead time to construction
– Environmental impact
– Operating characteristics
Operation Thekgo
4
Long Term Demand forecast
National + Foreign long term forecasts plus Position line
130000
120000
110000
100000
Electricity growth - 6%
Position
- 4%
High forecast
- 3.2%
Moderate forecast - 2.3%
Eskom position based on
4% electricity growth
supporting 6% economic
growth
MW
90000
80000
70000
60000
50000
40000
30000
2005
2010
2015
Operation Thekgo
5
2020
2025
Diversify Primary Energy Mix
Existing
Mix by 2025
Coal
OCGT
Nuclear
Renewable Energy
Imports
Pumped Storage
Operation Thekgo
6
Total System Capacity & Reliability Action Centre Mandate
The action centre will:
•
Co-ordinate and integrate total system capacity and reliability of the business over the
next 36 months
– Oversight of the overall capacity and reliability targets

Develop the targets

Develop RACIs addressing Action Centre and Line
– Oversight over all processes across the value chain to ensure the achievement of targeted capacity and
reliability
– Identify, mitigate risks and implement contingencies
– Be the integration point across the value chain to ensure total systems capacity and reliability
– Implement measures across all areas of the business to address the long term capacity requirements
and reliability of the total system
– Address all people, culture and stakeholder management issues pertaining to capacity and reliability
– Ensure focus across the organisation on reliability and capacity as fundamental priorities.
– Align existing initiatives and optimise resources and effort
•
Implement a robust emergency response process
Operation Thekgo
7
Resilient Organisation
•Ability to rebound
•Ability to recover easily & quickly from adversity
KPI
System vulnerability
Adaptive
Vulnerability
Capacity
time
System adaptive capacity
Shock
Reduction
Readiness
Response
Operation Thekgo
8
Recovery
Key Initiatives and Objectives – 36 months
Emergency Response
Command Centre
Short Term Reliability
Reliability Enhancement
Stakeholder & Communications
Culture and Change
•
Implement an interim and end-state emergency response
process including a command centre
•
Ensure required level of total system capacity and
reliability for the next 36 months.
•
Immediate focus on Western Cape & Eastern
•
Enhance and Institutionalise Eskom’s current reliability
management Framework.
•
Feedback Learning from the Short Term initiatives into the
existing business and long term initiatives
•
Reliability and capacity is positioned as a top business
priority
Operation Thekgo is effectively positioned.
Ensure consistent and proactive communication with all
stakeholders regarding capacity and reliability.
•
•
•
A robust and reliability culture supported by the correct
HR processes, quality and quantity of skills.
Operation Thekgo
9
The
TSC&R
Journey
for next
the next
36 months
Eskom’s
Journey
in the
36 months
Phase 2: Operationalisation
Phase 3: Instituitionalisation
Winter
2006
Summer
2006
Winter
2007
Summer
2007
Winter
2008
Summer
2008
June 2006
Dec 2006
June 2007
Dec 2007
June 2008
Dec 2008
Establish
Establish
Aug
Interim
Emergency
2006
Emergency
Response
Response Centre
Command
End State
Design &
Implement
May
2007
Early Warning
Monitoring and Response
Short Term Reliability Initiatives
Winter and Summer Assessments and 5 yr plan
Readiness Action Plans
Reliability Readiness
Audit
Create and Validate
Reliability Enhancement
Strategy
Implement Strategy
Continuous Improvement
Operation Thekgo
- Background and Information
10
Imperatives for Establishing the Emergency Response Command Centre
Addressing the need to react differently to an emergency from an Eskom national perspective
Integrated
Emergency
Response
Strategic
Management
of
Stakeholders
Strategic
and Tactical
Emergency
Response
• Create a central co-ordination point that can respond to any event in an integrated
manner
• Reduce duplicated effort and drive alignment
• Focus will mostly be on events or issues with an Eskom-wide or multiple division
impact
• Focus on communications between divisions and regions in an integrated manner
• Foster consistency in communication of messages to stakeholder groups in an
emergency situation
• Leadership driven response to emergencies
• Strategic responses to emergencies, aligned with divisional operational response plans
Operation Thekgo
11
ERCC Operating Model – Regional Joint Command Centres (RJCC)
ERCC
National
Emergency
Centres
Megawatt Park
Eastern
RJCC
Mkondeni
North East
RJCC
Witbank/
Nelspruit
Northern
RJCC
Pretoria/
Polokwane
Central
RJCC
Simmerpan
Gx
(where
applicable)
Gx JOC
Gx JOC
Gx JOC
Gx JOC
Tx
Tx JOC
Tx JOC
Tx JOC
Tx JOC
Tx JOC
Tx JOC
Tx JOC
Dx
Dx JOC
Dx JOC
Dx JOC
Dx JOC
Dx JOC
Dx JOC
Dx JOC
KSACs
KSACs
KSACs
KSACs
KSACs
KSACs
KSACs
KSACs
Other
Other
Other
Other
Other
Other
Other
Other Divisions
as required
North West
RJCC
Bloemfont.
Western
RJCC
Bellville
Southern
RJCC
East
London
Gx JOC
Operation Thekgo
12
NATIONAL
CONTROL
CENTRE
Emergency Response Protocols
Assess
Situation
Develop
Strategic
Options &
Priorities
Convene
Convene
Initial
Initial
Response
Response
Team
Team
Plan
Actions
Mobilise
Mobilise
Recovery
Recovery
Team
Team
Determine
Determine
Initial
Initial
Response
Response
Team
Nw
Alert
Status
Status
Reporting
Reporting
Activation
Event Trigger
Further
Actions
Emergency Response Protocols
Communications and Stakeholder Management
Info Request
Operation Thekgo
13
Stand Down
The
TSC&R
Journey
for next
the next
36 months
Eskom’s
Journey
in the
36 months
Phase 2: Operationalisation
Phase 3: Instituitionalisation
Winter
2006
Summer
2006
Winter
2007
Summer
2007
Winter
2008
Summer
2008
June 2006
Dec 2006
June 2007
Dec 2007
June 2008
Dec 2008
Establish
Establish
Aug
Interim
Emergency
2006
Emergency
Response
Response Centre
Command
End State
Design &
Implement
May
2007
Early Warning
Monitoring and Response
Short Term Reliability Initiatives
Winter and Summer Assessments
and medium-term outlook
Readiness Action Plans
Reliability Readiness
Audit
Create and Validate
Reliability Enhancement
Strategy
Implement Strategy
Continuous Improvement
Operation Thekgo
14
Short-term Reliability
• Ensure required total system capacity and reliability for next 5 yrs Ensure proper alignment
and coordination of all capacity and reliability related initiatives across all functions and
areas within Eskom
• Establish reliability assessment and reliability readiness
Equip the organisation to live with an increase of power system risk
Operation Thekgo
15
Short Term Reliability – Approach
Enhance the preparedness of Eskom
to address total system reliability for
key periods
Reliability Risk
Assessments
Ongoing Coordination
of Reliability Initiatives
18 month plan
Regional
Reliability Teams
5 yr plan
Identify
Reliability
Readiness Audit
Action
Solution
Operation Thekgo
16
Assess
Effectiveness
Short Term Reliability – Approach
Enhance the preparedness of Eskom
to address total system reliability for
key periods
Reliability Risk
Assessments
Ongoing Coordination
of Reliability Initiatives
18 month plan
Risks
Identify
Reliability
Readiness Audit
Regional
Reliability Teams
5 yr plan
Action
Solution
Operation Thekgo
17
Assess
Effectiveness
Key Power System Risks
Risk
Comment
Extended Outage of a large coal fired thermal unit or of a nuclear unit
(600 to 900 MW) impacting on stock pile levels, creating capacity
shortages (needing extended use of demand side resources) and
increased vulnerability to large scale interruptions based on location of
generation (as transmission corridors become heavily loaded)
•While there have been a number of short duration generator outages, there has been no
extended outage of any of the large units
Outages of one or two lines and/or transformers in major transmission
corridors resulting in large scale interruptions and possible rolling load
shedding if recovery times are long
•No major transmission risks have materialised.
Operation of special protection systems are not effective leading to
cascading outages and increased vulnerability to large scale interruptions
and blackout.
•No incidents have occurred
Dramatic reduction in coal stockpiles resulting in units having to shut
down. Vulnerability has increased to this risk due to the low level of
stockpiles currently.
•Stockpile risks
Unavailability of liquid fuel for open cycle gas turbines
•Risk remains unchanged
•The risk remains unchanged
•The risk remains unchanged
•The risk still remains
Operation Thekgo
18
Confidence levels (2005-2006 data)
Confidence level
95%
(19 days at risk)
90%
(37 days at risk)
Unplanned Allowance
1500 MW
98%
(8 days at risk)
2000 MW
2500 MW
Daily UCLF and (UCLF+OCLF)
Cumulative Distribution (April 2005 - February 2007)
2000MW
1500MW
100%
90%
80%
70%
Probability
60%
50%
40%
1900 MW O.R.
30%
UCLF
20%
UCLF+OCLF
10%
0%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
UCLF or UCLF+OCLF (%)
Operation Thekgo
19
13
14
15
16
17
18
NOTE: 36428 MW installed base
Short Term Reliability – Approach
Enhance the preparedness of Eskom
to address total system reliability for
key periods
Reliability Risk
Assessments
Ongoing Coordination
of Reliability Initiatives
Reliability
Readiness Audit
Plans
18 month plan
Regional
Reliability Teams
5 yr plan
Identify
Action
Solution
Operation Thekgo
20
Assess
Effectiveness
18 Month Rolling Plan – Approach & Classification
Summer ’06
Approach Philosophy
Oct ’06 to Mar ‘07
• Assessing the vulnerability to the organisation from an
integrated perspective.
• Plan is developed using divisional input for compiling the
vulnerability, and assessing the system adaptive
capacity.
•
–
•
•
–
If the Actual Supply (AS) is greater than the Required
Supply (RS) and the deficit is less than 1000MW.
Probably use of Contracted DMP resources and EL1.
•
–
If Actual Supply (AS) deficit to RS is between 1000 MW and
2000 MW.
Probably use Interruptible loads.
Operation Thekgo
21
If Actual Supply (AS) deficit to RS is between 2000 MW and
3000 MW.
Probably use interruptible loads and have some mandatory
load shedding.
Brown
–
Orange
–
Red
–
If the Actual Supply (AS) is greater than the Required
Supply (RS) and meets the 1900 MW reserve.
Yellow
–
Oct ’07 to Mar ‘08
18 Month Rolling Plan
Updated every 6 months
Green
–
Apr ’07 to Sep ‘07
Summer ’08
6 Month Rolling Plan
Bi-Monthly
Classification System
•
Winter ’07
–
If the Actual Supply (AS) deficit to RS is more than
3000MW.
Probably have rotating mandatory load shedding
Capacity Adequacy – Winter 2007
Ver 5
Date
Week
Forecast
Available Capacity
Less OR and UA
Surplus / Deficit
04-Jun-07
22
36844
37390
33590
-3254
11-Jun-07
23
36972
37300
33500
-3472
18-Jun-07
24
37043
37881
34081
-2962
25-Jun-07
25
36386
38489
34689
-1697
02-Jul-07
26
36461
38506
34706
-1755
09-Jul-07
27
36736
39008
35208
-1528
16-Jul-07
28
36319
38583
34783
-1536
23-Jul-07
29
35823
38853
35053
-770
30-Jul-07
30
35211
37485
33685
-1526
06-Aug-07
31
34579
36660
32860
-1719
13-Aug-07
32
34540
36960
33160
-1380
20-Aug-07
33
34255
36309
32509
-1746
27-Aug-07
34
34068
35852
32052
-2016
03-Sep-07
35
34917
36397
32597
-2320
10-Sep-07
36
33443
35612
31812
-1631
17-Sep-07
37
33951
35612
31812
-2139
24-Sep-07
38
32982
34829
31029
-1953
Operation Thekgo
22
Short Term Reliability – Approach
Enhance the preparedness of Eskom
to address total system reliability for
key periods
Reliability Risk
Assessments
Reliability
Readiness Audit
Ongoing Coordination
of Reliability Initiatives
Teams
18 month plan
Regional
Reliability Teams
5 yr plan
Identify
Action
Solution
Operation Thekgo
23
Assess
Effectiveness
Reliability Risk Team Structure (R.A.C.I.)
Guidance re
Mitigation &
Implementation
Support
(Inform)
Custodians of
Reliability Risk
(Responsible)
Implementation of
Reliability Risk
Mitigations and
Actions
(Accountable)
Exco
Custodian of
Overall Reliability
Risk Process
(Responsible)
Thekgo
Action
Centre
Exco
SoS
Integrated
Reliability
Risk Forum
CTAD
Auditing of Action
Implementation &
Mitigation
Effectiveness
(Consult)
Regional
Reliability
Teams
Operation Thekgo
24
Approach to Addressing the Reliability Situation in the Regions
Operation Thekgo
•
Reliability Team
PMO
Load Reduction
Initiatives
Network
Strengthening
•
•
Assessing overall reliability risks
in an integrated approach for
the region
Managing and controlling the
activities of the resilience team
Risk, issue and deliverable
management
Stakeholder
Management
Integrated
Reliability Risk Mgt
Skills & Resources
Integrated
Customer Mgt
Emergency
Preparedness
Operation Thekgo
25
Approach to Addressing the Reliability Situation in the Regions
Operation Thekgo
•
Reliability Team
PMO
Load Reduction
Initiatives
Network
Strengthening
•
•
Assessing overall reliability risks
in an integrated approach for
the region
Managing and controlling the
activities of the resilience team
Risk, issue and deliverable
management
Stakeholder
Management
Integrated
Reliability Risk Mgt
Skills & Resources
Integrated
Customer Mgt
Emergency
Preparedness
Operation Thekgo
26
Region Risks
Unifirm Substations
Single Contingency lines
R
Load is shed after the loss of a single transformer.
O
Momentary load shedding is required after the loss of a transformer but
all load is restored after remedial actions have been implemented.
G
No load shedding is required after the loss of a single transformer.
Operation Thekgo
27
Approach to Addressing the Reliability Situation in the Regions
Operation Thekgo
•
Reliability Team
PMO
Load Reduction
Initiatives
Network
Strengthening
•
•
Assessing overall reliability risks
in an integrated approach for
the region
Managing and controlling the
activities of the resilience team
Risk, issue and deliverable
management
Stakeholder
Management
Integrated
Reliability Risk Mgt
Skills & Resources
Integrated
Customer Mgt
Emergency
Preparedness
Operation Thekgo
28
DSM Role out
Increased Demand Side Management target of 3000MW by 2012
Comprehensive National
Demand Management
Programme
MICROSOFT
CORPORATION
$
Tariffs
Building stds
Appliance
labeling
Finance
PersonnelPersonnel Personnel
OR STICK
Virtual Power Station
ESSENTIAL SUPPORT FUNCTIONS TO ALL OF THE ABOVE
Customer Service
Board of Directors
Operation Thekgo
Quality Assurance
Research & Development
29
Warehouse
Conclusions
• The system remains extremely tight from a capacity point of view for the months
and years ahead
– Probability of load shedding is relatively high largely due to unexpected performance
changes in generation or transmission plant.
– Relief only when several new coal fired units are built and reserve margin goes over 15%
(2011 to 2013)
• Focus is required on current system, as well as new build programs
– Integration of new projects is going to put the network under stress and close cooperation
required between all divisions
.
Operation Thekgo
30
Thekgo value
Planning
Demand
Security of Supply Risk
Management
Emergency Response
Risk / Shortfall
Emergency
response plan
Roadmap to
RecoveryTM
Crisis management/
communication plan
Stage 1
Activity
Supply
Stage 2
Event
Business
recovery plan
Stage 3
Stakeholder
ER Protocol management / Comms
Recovery strategies
Time objective
Life of Plant
•
•
•
•
•
•
Daily plan
Weekly Plan
Monthly Plan
18 Month Plan
5 Year Plan
15 Year Plan
Probability of Risk
Integration between these elements is key for Eskom to handle their current and future
challenges.
Operation Thekgo
31
Thank You