Transcript AEMO Independent Assessment of NSW and TAS Networks

AEMO INDEPENDENT ASSESSMENT OF
NSW & TAS NETWORKS
July 2014
PRESENTED BY NATIONAL PLANNING
SLIDE 1
AGENDA
1. Objective
2. Connection point demand forecasts
3. Network Assessment
i. Principles
ii. Scope
iii. Assessment approach
4. Next Steps
SLIDE 2
OBJECTIVES
• To support the economic, reliable and secure
development of the transmission grid in the best interest
of consumers
• AEMO is developing
o Independent Connection-point demand forecasts
o Independent assessment of transmission network
requirements
SLIDE 3
CONNECTION POINT FORECASTING
Date
Action
December
2012
•
COAG asked AEMO to develop independent demand forecasts.
o Independent reference for the AER’s revenue reset determinations.
June 2013
•
AEMO published a consistent methodology for transmission connection
point forecasting.
o Consulted and tested with industry.
2013-14
•
AEMO developed forecasts for the first time in NSW and Tasmania –
worked closely with NSPs to:
o Access data and information
o Test forecasting assumptions
o Interpret results
o Hold regular workshops plus in regular contact
Regular updates to AER throughout process.
Appointed external consultants
o To ensure a quality process and to transfer knowledge to CP team
o Independent adviser – ACIL Allen
o Independent peer reviewer – Frontier Economics
•
•
SLIDE 4
NETWORK ASSESSMENT
•
Began work in late 2013
•
Principles
o
Impartial - the assessment is fact based.
o
Transparent - the processes are replicable
o
Consistent - All jurisdictions in the NEM are treated the same
o
Consultative - AEMO is taking a consultative approach in completing the
assessment
•
AEMO will support the business’ proposal where the analysis
supports the proposal
•
AEMO will suggest alternative options where the analysis does not
support the proposal
SLIDE 5
SCOPE
• In Scope
o Augmentations
 Identify potential network limitations over next 7 years
 For each potential limitation, identify and suggest suitable
options
o Whether asset replacement is required given:
 The network capability based on the current assets is
sufficient to meet the reliability standards if the asset is retired
and not replaced
 There is an alternative, more efficient configuration of assets
that would achieve the standard
SLIDE 6
SCOPE
• Out of Scope
o
o
o
o
o
o
Comment on the condition of the assets
Assessment of project costs
Detailed options analysis
Identify new strategic land and easement
Operational expenditure
Other infrastructures/provisions not directly related to
shared transmission network and connection point assets
(e.g. IT, Metering, Telecommunications)
SLIDE 7
ASSESSMENT APPROACH
Network investment
Capacity driven
For a proposed augmentation:
Condition driven
For a proposed asset replacement:
1. Network capability
What level of demand
can the network
support …
for all N-x contingency events?
if the asset was retired?
2. Projected demand
Is there load at risk or
market congestion
expected ...
under the most critical contingency?
after any beneficial network
reconfiguration?
If yes:
Augmentation required within the
regulatory period. Identify preferred
option under jurisdictional reliability
criteria.
Replacement (with higher capacity)
required within the regulatory period.
Augmentation not required.
Replacement may not be required:
Retirement, derating or replacement
with lower capacity.
3. Assessment under
applicable planning
criteria
If no:
SLIDE 8
STAKEHOLDER ENGAGEMENT
• Worked closely with NSPs to
o Access data and information
o Hold regular workshops plus in regular contact
• Regular updates to AER throughout process.
• Appointed external consultants for reviewing complex
projects
SLIDE 9
NEXT STEPS
• Next Steps
o Finalise the forecasts and network assessments
o Publish the reports on AEMO website by 31July 14
SLIDE 10