Transcript Заголовок слайда отсутствует

PROSPECTS AND CONDITIONS FOR MUTUALLY BENEFICIAL ENERGY
COOPERATION BETWEEN RUSSIA AND NORTHEAST ASIA COUNTRIES
B. Saneev, Energy Systems Institute, SB of RAS, Irkutsk
1.
EASTERN VECTOR – A PRIORITY DIRECTION IN RUSSIA’S ENERGY IN THE
FIRST HALF OF THE 21ST CENTURY
2. STARTING CONDITIONS TO BE CONSIDERED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRATEGIES FOR MUTUALLY BENEFICIAL OIL AND GAS COOPERATION
BETWEEN RUSSIA AND NEA COUNTRIES
3.CONDITIONS FOR SUCCESSFUL IMPLEMENTATION OF INTERSTATE ENERGY
PROJECTS
4. CONCLUSION
Speech at the Round Table “Natural gas – a new vector of economic development
of the Far East and a new possibility of entering into the markets of APR countries”
(The 5th Far –Eastern International Economic Forum, Khabarovsk, October 4-5, 2011)
1. EASTERN VECTOR – A PRIORITY
DIRECTION IN RUSSIA’S ENERGY
IN THE FIRST HALF
OF THE 21ST CENTURY
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EASTERN VECTOR OF RUSSIA’S ENERGY
POLICY
 National interests of Russia require intensification of its mutually beneficial energy
cooperation with Japan, China, Korea and other countries in Northeast Asia
 Creation of new energy centers in East Siberia and the Far East will increase
energy security of Russia, restore and strengthen broken fuel and energy ties
between the regions and solve many important federal, interregional and regional
problems
 Fast and large-scale energy development in the eastern regions of Russia and
penetration to the energy markets in Japan, China, Korea and other countries of
Northeast Asia should be considered as a primary means of timely ensuring the
appropriate positions of Russia in this strategically important region of the world
 Creation in the East of Russia and in Northeast Asia of a developed energy
infrastructure in the form of interstate gas-, oil pipelines and transmission lines will
decrease the cost of energy carriers, enhance reliability of energy and fuel supply to
consumers in different countries and make easier the solution of environmental
problems
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EASTERN ENERGY POLICY AS AN
INSTRUMENT FOR SOLVING URGENT
PROBLEMS IN RUSSIA
Eastern energy policy of Russia, as part of Eastern economic policy,
is not an end in itself, but an instrument for solving many principally
important problems of federal, interregional and regional levels
Energy problems
General problems
1.
Social – increase of comfort, style, quality of
people’s life in the eastern regions of Russia
1.
Improvement of adaptability and reliability
of energy and fuel supply to consumers
2.
Political – consolidation and integration of the RF
entities, strengthening the unity of the economic
and energy space of RF
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Increase of energy and environmental security
of the country and regions
3.
Geopolitical – reinforcement of Russia’s positions in
the world economic system, in the community of
APR, Central and Northeast Asia countries
3. Perfection of territorial and production structure
of Russia’s energy sector and particularly in its
eastern regions
4.
Economic – enhancement of the efficiency of
functioning and competitiveness of the economy in
the East of Russia, increase of provision with
resources and accessibility to the remote areas of
the country, expansion of active economic space of
Russia, creation of conditions for attraction of
foreign investments and advanced technologies,
etc. to Russia
4. Formation of transport and energy
infrastructure in Russia’s East – oil and gas
pipeline systems, transmission lines– and
creation of common transport and energy space
in Russia, etc.
At present the material basis of the eastern vector of Russia’s
energy policy is based on several large fuel and energy projects
aimed at markets of NEA countries:
– Approval by the RF government and launch of “The
program for creating the unified system of gas production, transport
and supply in East Siberia and the Far East with potential gas export
to the markets of China and other APR countries”, that suggests
large-scale natural gas supply to the markets of NEA countries;
– Construction of the oil pipeline “East Siberia – Pacific
Ocean” with the capacity 80 million t per year with a pipeline branch
to Skovorodino towards China with the capacity up to 15-20 million t
of oil per year;
– Studies on the possibility of annual electricity supply to
China in the amount of 30-35 billion kWh starting from 2015-2020 with
its increase to 60-70 billion kWh by 2020-2025.
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Russia completed the work on preparation of a large number
of policy documents determining the strategic development of the
economy and energy in the East of the country up to 2030 in the
context of energy cooperation between Russia and NEA countries,
such as "Energy Strategy of Russia until 2030", "Program for Creation
in East Siberia and the Far East a Unified System of Gas Production,
Transport and Supply with Potential Gas Export to the Markets of
China and other APR Countries” (Eastern Gas Program),“ Strategy of
Socioeconomic Development of the Far East and the Baikal region
until 2025", ”Strategy of Socioeconomic Development of Siberia until
2020", ”Energy Development Strategy of East Siberia and the Far East
until 2030","Program for Development of Oil Refining Capacities in
East Siberia and the Far East”, etc.
These documents suggest a considerable increase in mutually
beneficial supplies of Russian energy resources to the markets of
China, Japan, Korea, and other NEA countries.
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POSSIBLE EXPORT OF ENERGY RESOURCES FROM RUSSIA
Forecast
2005
fact.
2010
2020
2030
770
860-870
910-950
900-950
327
356
330-325
300-290
of which oil:
265
285
266-259
243-240
western direction
249
247
195-197
170-172
eastern direction
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38
71-62
73-68
Natural gas, billion m3
207
240
290-320
315-330
western direction
207
218
225-230
237-240
eastern direction
-
14-15
65-90
78-90
Coal, million t
77
100-110
110-120
130-140
western direction
63
72-82
80-85
85-90
14
28
30-35
45-50
13
21-25
30-85
48-105
western direction
12.3
17
20-25
23-25
eastern direction
0.7
4-8
10-60
25-80
Index
Export, million tce, total
including:
Oil and oil products, million t
eastern direction
Electricity, billion kWh
Source: Substantiating materials to “Energy Strategy of Russia until 2030”
2. STARTING CONDITIONS TO BE
CONSIDERED IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF STRATEGIES FOR MUTUALLY
BENEFICIAL OIL AND GAS
COOPERATION BETWEEN RUSSIA
AND NEA COUNTRIES
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FACTOR 1
Russian energy resources are
getting increasingly more attractive
in the markets of NEA countries as a
result of growing investment and
other risks in the Middle East
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FACTOR 2
The oil and natural gas markets for the
Russian consumers in the East of Russia will
be relatively limited:
Potentialities of oil and natural gas production
are many times higher than domestic demands
 Reliability of oil and natural gas supplies from
the eastern regions of Russia to NEA countries
is very high
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FACTOR 3
The geographical and geopolitical
position of China in NEA makes it a
convenient corridor for transportation of
energy resources from Russia and Central
Asia to the energy markets of NEA countries.
China becomes a key player and gains an
unprecedented opportunity to exert
pressure upon both sellers and buyers.
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FACTOR 4
Prices of energy resources become
the priority in negotiations.
Natural gas will not be cheap in
Russia, since the policy of leveling the
prices of energy carriers and adjusting
the price structure of some kinds of
fuel to the world ratios comes into play.
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FACTOR 5
 Natural gas and oil of the Siberian platform are
unique in the content of helium and ethane, which
essentially increases its consumer value
 Natural gas of the Siberian platform contains 0.30.5% of helium and 4.6-7.2% of ethane
 Helium reserves in the gas fields of the Siberian
platform are estimated at 8.5 billion m3, or above 20%
of the world helium reserves
 In the future Russia can be the world largest helium
exporter
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FACTOR 6
At present the necessity to deliver not only
hydrocarbon resources, but products of their
advanced processing with higher value added to the
international markets is clearly recognized at all
levels in Russia. For this purpose it is planned in the
Eastern regions of Russia to increase the output of
oil products and create a new specialized industry
(gas-chemical industry) whose products are in rather
high demand in NEA countries.
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3. CONDITIONS FOR
SUCCESSFUL IMPLEMENTATION
OF INTERSTATE ENERGY
PROJECTS
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I. Implementation of the eastern energy
strategy is very challenging because it takes
into account a variety of aspects, covers a vast
territory, involves a great number of Russian
and foreign participants, the energy policy
measures (particularly interstate energy
projects) are highly capital intensive and their
implementation supposes close international
energy cooperation.
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II. FIVE REQUIREMENTS FOR MUTUALLY
BENEFICIAL ENERGY COOPERATION
1. Political will and serious intentions of participants to implement a specific
energy project mutually beneficial for each country
2.
Coordination of economic and energy policy among the central, regional
authorities and business circles of the countries in development of interstate
energy projects
3. Comprehensive and system estimation of consequences (effects) of
implementation of large-scale interstate energy projects, particularly under high
uncertainty of future development, economic risks and global challenges for
the countries, regions and energy companies
4. Generation of mutually acceptable mechanisms for implementation of interstate
energy projects (organizational, economic, legal and other mechanisms)
5.
Development and implementation of interstate projects by the international
team ( at all stages: from feasibility study and design works to their
realization)
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4. CONCLUSIONS
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1. The necessity has arisen to elaborate a
scientifically sound strategy of energy
cooperation between Russia and NEA:
- To show the priority in development of
energy resources, order and stages of their
domestic and export supplies
- To evaluate socioeconomic consequences
of the decisions taken not only for
companies, but also for regions and the
country as a whole
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2. Such a strategy can be worked
out only on the basis of
international cooperation among
research and design institutions,
companies, banks, etc. of the
concerned countries with active
support by the Government and
regional authorities
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3. At present the main outlines of energy cooperation with
NEA are clear enough. The resource base of countries
supplying energy resources and the energy markets of
consuming countries are well studied. It is necessary to
pay more attention to the mechanisms for implementation
of coordinated efforts of participants (countries, regions,
companies), bearing in mind economic mechanisms,
legislative and other initiatives aimed at implementation of
large-scale interstate energy projects.
Special attention should be paid to the pricing formulas for
energy products. Energy and economic institutes of
Russia must and can take a highly active part in solving
this complex and very important problem for Russia and all
the NEA countries.
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Thank you very much for
your kind attention!
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