Transcript bioquest.org

Systems and Cycles Knowledge: Investigating
wicked problems with modeling and data
Carrie Diaz Eaton, Michelle Fisher, M. Drew LaMar, Sumana Mondal, Banjo Oriade, Meegie Wheat, Renate Wuersig , Seung M Hong
Common ground: Rivers and aquatic environments
It was a warm, sunny afternoon in the Mediterranean when Dante and his younger brother, Sergio decided
to call it a day after no luck fishing for dinner when Sergio suddenly felt a bite on his line. The fish pulled so
hard that Dante had to help his brother reel in the line. This was the third blue shark they caught this
summer. “Dad and all the other fishermen have been away at war for four years now. How come we
never caught a shark before he left?”
1914
1915
1916
1917
1918
1919
1920
1921
1922
1923
11.9%
21.4%
22.1%
21.2%
36.4%
27.3%
16.0%
15.9%
14.8%
10.7%
The percentage-of-total-catch of sharks in the Mediterranean during World War 1 (1914-1918) and after the war.
Learning Goals:
● Identify the big questions and smaller,
manageable subproblems.
● Pose a research question
● Determine important variables and parameters
through prior knowledge from modules, literature,
and concepts.
● Use oscillating models to investigate phenomena
that characterize widespread, wicked problems.
● Statistical literacy
● Learning
Objectives
● Assessment
● Rubrics
● Alignment
Skills:
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Collaborating in groups to define wicked problems
Posing scientific questions
Anticipatory skills (cartoon diagrams; compartment diagrams)
Distinguishing between Big Picture <--> Focused system (scale)
Modeling skills and data
a. Choosing relevant parameters
b. Which model type (discrete, continuous; deterministic, stochastic; forced,
unforced)
c. Interpreting data
● Learn how to verify models at each step in process
● Communication skills
a. Writing (peer evaluations, reflections)
b. Presenting
Simulation
Writing
University of Colorado Boulder
Key
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White Rabbits
Brown Rabbits
Total Rabbits
Steve Bernhardt, Kirkpatrick Chair in Writing,
University of Delaware
How do we use simulations
and modeling to attack
wicked problems?
FOXRAB Game (Analog, Kinesthetic)
Learning Activities:
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Simulation (NetLogo, Zombie, PhET)
Games
Concept maps
Peer evaluation
Reflections
Mathematical manipulative models: in defense of
"beanbag biology"
Jungck, Gaff, and Weisstein CBELife Sci Educ.
2010
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20810952
FOXRAB Game: Preliminary Data
“Rabbits are white, Foxes are red
My model needs work, Cause now they’re all dead.”
Data for FOXRAB game: Changing the Rules
Data from FoxRab Game, rabbit litter size 2
GraFoxRab: Intro of limiting factor
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Grass, added to the model as a limiting
factor establishes a carrying capacity.
○ 10 rabbits max in each square
For each rabbit fox pair in a quadrant,
flip a coin.
○ Two possible results, either the
previous rule, rabbit death and fox
birth, OR
○ Nothing happens.
FOXRAB to HUMFOXRAB?
Introduce new parameters
● Implications for sustainability
● Human impacts
● Climate change
Statistics and Data Analysis
1) Identify the objectives
2) Design the experiments
3) Data collection
4) Data cleaning
5) Data Modeling (Time Series/Factor Analysis etc.)
6) Statistical Inference
7) Develop a data science team
8) Optimize and replicate
Possible Funding Sources
● Undergraduate Education
(DUE)
● Sustainability Research
Networks Competition (SRN)
● Advanced Technological
Education (ATE) (Minority
Serving Institutions)
● Improving Undergraduate
STEM Education (IUSE)
● NSF Scholarships in Science,
Technology, Engineering, and
Mathematics (S-STEM)
● SESYNC Case study workshop
Resources:
● Simulations
o https://ccl.northwestern.ed
u/netlogo/
o http://phet.colorado.edu/e
n/simulations/naturalselection
● Shark tracking website
o http://www.ocearch.org/
● Online repository for data
o http://www.imperial.ac.uk
/cpb/gpdd2/secure/login.as
px?ReturnUrl=/
● Posing scientific questions
o http://science.education.ni
h.gov/supplements/nih6/in
quiry/guide/lesson2.htm
Thank you!