Transcript Research Interests, Projects and Activities

Transport’s contribution to GHG
emissions, and how to reduce it
Tom Rye, Professor of Transport Policy
and Mobility Management
Transport Research Institute
Napier University
Edinburgh
Presentation structure
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Trends and problems
Backcasting
Policy options and possible impacts
International comparisons
Conclusions
CONTEXT
Transport emissions as proportion of
total - Scotland
Source: CHANGING OUR WAYS SCOTLAND’S CLIMATE CHANGE PROGRAMME, Scottish Executive 2006
Excludes international air travel
More detail
1990
2005
Transport in Scotland
Road transportation
Buses
Passenger cars
HGVs
Light duty vehicles
Mopeds & motorcycles
Other 8
Railways
National navigation
Domestic civil aviation
Other transport
Total transport
Non-transport net emissions
Net emissions all sources
Transport as % of total net
emissions
9,165
414
5,792
1,927
964
46
21
192
961
333
517
11,168
53,270
64,439
10,334
306
6,084
2,420
1,435
38
52
241
789
714
294
12,372
42,151
54,522
17.3
22.7
Source: Scottish Transport Statistics 2007
13%
-26%
5%
26%
49%
-18%
142%
26%
-18%
114%
-43%
11%
-21%
-15%
Summarising…
 22.7% of net Scottish emissions from
transport 2005 (17.3% 1990)
 Transport second largest source of emissions
 1990-2003 largest percentage increase in
emissions by sector – from transport
 If current trends in transport use continue
CO2 emissions in the UK will increase by 60%
in the next 20 years (excl. int. air)
UK transport CO2 emissions 1952-2004
(source: DTI)
Addressing the problem
Transport energy use is a product of:
 Population
 Vehicle technology
 Carbon intensity of fuel
 Mode choice
 Trip frequency
 Trip length
 Vehicle occupancy
Limit discussion here to surface transport
Back-casting – emissions index - UK
Trip
length
1
Motorised
trips per
person
1
Emissions per v
km
1
Carbon
intensity
1
Mode share
1
Total
1
1.5
1.5
1.2
1.2
0.9
0.29
1
1
1
1
1.62
0.52
1.5
1.2
0.4
0.72
1
0.52
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0.88
0.1
0.02
0.88
0.10
0.02
1.00
2025 - mode shift only
Car
Bus
Rail
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.2
1.2
1.2
0.97
0.44
0.53
1
1
1
0.65
0.25
0.1
1.13
0.20
0.10
1.43
2025 - combination
Car
Bus
Rail
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.1
1.1
1.1
0.55
0.25
0.3
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.65
0.25
0.1
0.41
0.07
0.03
0.51
Current situation
2025
Business as usual
Engine efficiency
Engine efficiency and new
fuels
Mode specific
2005
Car
Bus
Rail
Source: based on Potter (2008)
So we need to:
 Reduce motorised trips
 Stabilise trip length
 Change vehicle technologies and carbon
intensity of fuels
 Achieve mode shift
 Unlikely that any one strategy alone could
achieve GHG reduction targets
Current Scottish
transport policy trends
 National level – approx equal spend by TS on PT
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and roads
Significant road and rail investments
Bus use falling/stable outside Lothian and SPT
areas
Real bus fares stable since about 2000
SOA/NPF – less emphasis on transport at LA
level; and almost no ring-fenced funds for tspt
Land use planning – NPF, SPP17
Transport Spending
Rail Services in Scotland
Concessionary Fares
Major Public Transport
Projects
Motorways and Trunk
Roads
Roads Cost of Capital
Charge
Other
Total
2008/09
689.2
35%
187.5
9%
157.7
8%
2009/10
672.9
30%
189.5
9%
262.9
12%
2010/11
667.1
29%
191.5
8%
230.7
10%
383.1
19%
468.2
21%
532.3
23%
546.5
28%
595.5
27%
649.1
28%
23.2
1%
1,987.20
24.2
1%
2,213.20
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Source: Transport Scotland Corporate Plan 2008
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In addition SG spends £250m/yr mainly on air, ferry and BSOG
26.2
1%
2,296.90
NTS and reducing emissions
 “Reduce emissions” – one of three key
objectives of National Transport Strategy
 Methods proposed:
 Travel plan coordinators, smarter choices –
influencing travel behaviour through
mkting/awareness - £11m over three years
 Renewable Fuels Obligation
 Reviewing speed enforcement on motorways
 Bus strategy, to improve service quality
If transport’s GHG emissions are to
fall significantly, we need…
 Shift to smaller vehicles (NL, Italy) – taxation?
 Incentives to use 2nd generation biofuels
 Mode shift:
 Cheaper, more frequent PT esp within towns – with cheap
integrated ticketing
 PT faster than car
 Safe infrastructure for walking and cycling – taking space
from parked and moving cars
 Smarter choices
 Trip reduction, trip shortening:
 Land use encouraging slow modes, short distances
 Pricing/parking restraint
Mode shares compared
% trips by mode, Scotland
100%
Other
80%
PT inc taxi
60%
Car pass or driver
40%
Bike
20%
Walk
0%
1997
2000
2003
2005
2006
Edinburgh
2004
Source: Transport Statistics Scotland 2007 and Edinburgh LTS 2007
Specific example: Freiburg
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550,000 people
Public transport has priority
Cars and parking restricted; P+R
Tram network mostly new since 80s
Integrate planning and transport
March 84 - Enviro Season ticket (all modes)
Prices and subsidy reduced - 70% farebox
Freiburg results
Freiburg tram…
Conclusion
 CO2 emissions rising faster from transport sector
than any other
 Current Scottish transport policy – very mixed
picture on emissions reduction – low emphasis
on zero-emissions modes
 Using technology to reduce consumption by
engines or further develop alternatively powered
vehicles is part of the solution
BUT
 Changing peoples travel behaviour to
sustainable modes needs to occur also
THANK YOU
Tom Rye
[email protected]
www.tri-napier.org