Transcript Slide 1
Dr. Linda L. Baer Great Plains IDEA Spring Meeting
April 8, 2014
We are educating for careers that have not been created, using technology not yet invented to solve problems that haven’t been discovered
. “Shift Happens” UTube
“There are probably 500 colleges who are out of business already and they just don’t know it yet.”
2014: A Perfect Storm of Opportunity
2013: Our Vantage Point to the Future
• • • • • •
Information and Communication Technology (ICT) has been a sustaining innovation not transformative.
Cost has grown at unsustainable rates.
Economical learning/developmental solutions are ready to scale.
Personalized, adaptive learning will be transformative. Current models and institutions lack the capacity and resilience to transform for the needs of tomorrow.
A perception gap exists between institutional leaders and the campus community, on the urgency for change and transformation.
Major Trends
• • College and university tuition and fees continued to rise, despite several tuition freeze experiments. • Student debt rose throughout 2013, inspiring widespread anxiety. A number of institutions took drastic steps to stave off financial crisis, including merging with other campuses, ending academic programs, and laying off faculty “sacrificing the queen”. These events could be advance signs of ongoing issues on the horizon.
http://bryanalexander.org/2013/12/31/trends-from-2013-the-higher-education-bubble/
• • •
Major Issues
The number of students taking classes went down across many sectors.
Some graduate programs suffered badly in 2013, most notably law schools, who saw declining revenues, applicants, graduates, and jobs.
Outside of campuses, political pressures remained steady. Some of this occurred in partisan terms, as Republicans extended their criticism of public K-12 to all of higher education, sometimes with an anti-union dimension. However, 2013 also saw Democrats joining in for a full-court bipartisan press on higher education, from a presidential charge to build a new institutional assessment system to high-profile governors and mayors calling for reduced higher education fees.
http://bryanalexander.org/2013/12/31/trends-from-2013-the-higher-education-bubble
Sacrificing the Queen
Let’s call this strategy
sacrifices its queen academia
.* That’s a risky chess move where one player gives up their most powerful piece in order to win the game. Bryan Alexander http://bryanalexander.org/?s=queen+sacrifice
Some American campuses are still cutting programs and faculty five years into the Great Recession/some-sort-of recovery. The most recent examples: twelve Pennsylvania universities, one Minnesota university, one in Washington DC, one in Vermont. Added to the list: Maine, Franklin Pierce and Long Island. Adjuncts go, of course, but also tenure-track and tenured faculty. These schools are cutting programs and departments, which means tenure’s protection doesn’t matter as much.
http://bryanalexander.org/?s=queen+sacrifice
Transforming Higher Education Jump Shifts
• • • • • • • • • •
Teaching Franchise Provider Driven Individual Technologies Time Out for Education Continuing Education Traditional Courses/Degrees
Combined Teaching, Assessment and Certifying
Fragmented, Proprietary Systems
B
ureaucratic Systems
Rigid Processes
Technology Push
• • • • • • • • • • •
Learning Franchise Learner Driven Technology Synergies Just In Time Learning Perpetual Learning Unbundled Learning Experiences Unbundled Learning, Assessment and Certification Open, Seamless Systems Self-Informing/Correcting Systems Customizable Processes Learning Vision Pull
Michael Dolence and Donald Norris. Transforming Higher Education, 1995
Five Trends to Watch
1 Lecture model challenged by virtual teams and shared courseware
11
Model challengers taking many forms
What is WGU Indiana?
WGU Indiana is an online, competency-based university established by the state of Indiana through a partnership with Western Governors University to expand access to higher education for Indiana residents.
Over 50 accredited online bachelor’s and master’s degrees in high-demand career fields.
Flexible, online study, allowing you to balance work, family, and school.
Affordable tuition. WGU Indiana is a non-profit university.
Several states building similar partnerships.
http://indiana.wgu.edu/
Five Trends to Watch
1
• Lecture model challenged by virtual teams and shared courseware
2 Amazon/Ebay style analytics unlock personalization
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Analytics is the “universal decoder” for education reform.
Strategic Intelligence for Higher Education
What’s the best that can happen?
What will happen next?
What if these trends continue?
Why is this happening?
What actions are needed?
Where exactly is the problem?
How many, how often, where?
Solution Sets Coming to Market
Reporting Analytics Forecasting, Risk Analytics Optimization Analytics Advanced Data Visualization
Amazon features
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The market is immature, but multiple solutions are emerging in each application category Education Planning Counseling and Coaching Risk Targeting and Intervention Transfer and Articulation Legacy ERP/SIS/LMS Vendor point solutions Homegrown point solutions
Sinclair’s MAP Valencia’s LifeMap Austin Peay’s Degree Compass Central Piedmont’s Online Student Profile WICHE’s Predictive Analytics Reporting
Direct-to student
© 2010 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
Adaptive Learning
Educational method which uses computers as interactive teaching devices. Computers adapt the presentation of educational material according to students' weaknesses, as indicated by their responses to questions. The motivation is to allow electronic education to incorporate the value of the interactivity afforded to a student by an actual human teacher or tutor. The technology encompasses aspects derived from various fields of study including computer science, education, neuroscience, and psychology.
Knewton Course Signals Purdue
P REDICTION AND I NTERVENTION
E DUCATION AND P OSITIONING S C AREER YSTEM
Map-in starting point and destination Routes to completion Time to destination – progress Fuel for the journey Travel time to “ norm ” for the destination Highway for optimizing student success Lone Star Community College http://studentalignment.com/home.html
Five Trends to Watch
1
Lecture model challenged by virtual teams and shared courseware
2
Amazon/Ebay style analytics unlock personalization
3 Governing to Win
Complete College America
Complete College America has developed the institutional roadmap to increase student success. The components include: Performance Funding Co-requisite Remediation Full time is full time Structured schedules Guided pathways to success http://www.completecollege.org/
http://www.grad.illinois.edu/sites/default/files/researchschemagraphic.png
Graduate Program Evaluation Metrics
Time-to-degree (master’s and doctoral) Completion rate (master’s and doctoral) 2 year master’s 6-8 year for doctoral Advancement to candidacy rate Number of degrees awarded per year Percent doctoral students receiving full support Competitiveness of stipends with respect to AAU institutions Student placement in context of program goals Master’s 2 years after completion Doctoral 5 years after completion Benchmark performance against national criteria by discipline Association of American Universities http://www.aau.edu
Five Trends to Watch
1
Lecture model challenged by virtual teams and shared courseware
2
Amazon/Ebay style analytics unlock personalization
3
Governing to Win
4 DIYU is for real and new brands emerge
Do It Yourself University
New Brands?
Five Trends to Watch
1
Lecture model challenged by virtual teams and shared courseware
2
Amazon/Ebay style analytics unlock personalization
3
Governing to Win
4
DIYU is for real and new brands emerge
5
Constructive Disruption, Reinvention and Transformation
Disrupting College: How Disruptive Innovation Can Deliver Quality and Affordability to Postsecondary Education Clayton M. Christensen, Michael B. Horn, Louis Caldera, Louis Soares http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2011/02/pdf/disrupting_college_execsumm.pdf
HOW TO THINK ABOUT REINVENTION
Reinvention
Track A:
Reposition the core business of the university, adapting legacy offerings to the disruptive marketplace.
Track B:
Create a separate, disruptive business unit to develop innovations that will become the source of future growth by addressing new or unmet value propositions.
Gilbert, Eyring and Foster, Two Routes to Resilience, Harvard Business Review, December 2012
Reinvented Strategies
Focus on real value propositions; enable learners to make choices that personalize experiences and manage the total cost of completion.
Develop the organizational capacity for learning analytics and personalized learning to optimize learner success.
Improve flexibility in the completion and certification of learning objectives and capacity to draw from external sources and receive transfer and credit for prior learning.
Double down on the best value propositions of reinvented legacy programs, but add real-world experiences, globalism, innovation/entrepreneurship.
Reinvented Business Models
•
Consciously reinvent business models for education, talent and leadership development, and research to achieve:
– – – –
Affordability – ways to control and reduce total cost of completion Greater Flexibility – ways to serve learners better, personalize experiences Reduced Time-to-completion – ways to accelerate and enrich Alignment with emerging needs of society and career and employer needs
•
Track A: Reinvent business models for legacy programs to compete in the face of disruptions
•
Track B: Create new and separate disruptive enterprises to develop innovations that will be sources of new growth.
Examples from the Field
Low-cost accelerated, competence-based models for baccalaureate degrees
Western Governor’s University Southern New Hampshire $10,000 degree programs Accelerated completion
Bridge programs Concurrent enrollment Credit for prior learning Transfer and course aggregators 3-year baccalaureates Control costs by limiting and reducing tuition Cost reductions, reinvented processes, shared services
See McKinsey Report Winning by Degrees
Examples from the Field
Limiting time-to-completion for graduate degrees
Personalized Learning Systems – Arizona State and Knewton
The university has rolled out an ambitious effort to turn its classrooms into laboratories for technology-abetted “adaptive learning” -- a method that purports to give instructors real-time intelligence on how well each of their students is getting each concept.
“No More Excuses” – analytics for success and strategy
New Alternatives and Competitors
Welcome to Strategies for Success!
Graduate Student Success ASU
https://graduate.asu.edu/grow/sfs Welcome to the Strategies for Success program of Graduate Education. Our goal is to help you be successful in your time at ASU and beyond. Your professional development, all of the things done outside your academics, can have a significant impact on your success as a student, on the job market, and as a professional.
Graduate Student Success Brochure
University of Michigan How to Get the Mentoring You Want: A Guide for Graduate Students (PDF) ... Outlines the services offered by Rackham's Graduate Student Success office.
Graduate Student Success Brochure - Rackham Graduate School
www.rackham.umich.edu/.../GSSBrochure.pdf
Student Success Center
Graduate Student Success Center (GSSC)
The Office of Graduate Student Development seeks to provide you with appropriate academic support services in the humanities, physical sciences, and social sciences. To this end, students are enrolled in a password-protected Blackboard site called the Graduate Student Success Center (GSSC). On this site, students have access to information regarding: study skills test-taking strategies time and stress management tutorial support writing assistance research skills career planning and preparation online course readiness assessment Students can log into the GSSC through Blackboard or through the Pfeiffer University website.
METRICS FOR BEST ONLINE GRADUATE EDUCATION PROGRAM RANKINGS
Student Engagement Interact with instructors and classmates Instructors are accessible and responsive Instructors create an experience rewarding enough to stay enrolled and complete in a reasonable amount of time Admissions Selection Entering students have proven aptitudes, ambitions and accomplishments to handle the demands of rigorous course work Peer Reputation Industry opinion accounts for intangible factors on program quality Degrees with strong perceptions of quality among academics may be held in higher regard among employers http://www.usnews.com/education/online-education/articles/2014/01/07/about-the-top online-education-programs-rankings-2014
METRICS FOR BEST ONLINE GRADUATE EDUCATION PROGRAM RANKINGS
Faculty credentials and training Strong online programs employ instructors with academic credentials one would expect rom a campus-based program Invest resources to train these instructors on how to teach distance learners Student services and technology Incorporates diverse online learning technologies which allows greater flexibility for students to take classes from a distance Outside of classes, a strong support structure provides learning assistance, career guidance and financial aid resources commensurate with quality campus-based programs
EXAMPLES
Arizona State University https://graduate.asu.edu/progress https://graduate.asu.edu/progress/steps/critical _policies_to_remember https://graduate.asu.edu/faculty_staff/policies TA and RA Policies https://graduate.asu.edu/faculty_staff/tara
Graduate Program Evaluation Metrics
Time-to-degree (master’s and doctoral) Completion rate (master’s and doctoral) 2 year master’s 6-8 year for doctoral Advancement to candidacy rate Number of degrees awarded per year Percent doctoral students receiving full support Competitiveness of stipends with respect to AAU institutions Student placement in context of program goals Master’s 2 years after completion Doctoral 5 years after completion Benchmark performance against national criteria by discipline Association of American Universities http://www.aau.edu
Recommendations for Institutions
Apply the correct business model for the task.
Drive the disruptive innovation.
Develop a strategy of focus.
Frame online learning as a sustaining innovation.
http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2011/02/pdf/disrupting_college_execsumm.pdf
The future is…..
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What do great programs look and feel like?
What’s the competitive marketplace that’s impacting this environment?
Higher education practice, technology and policies that need to change?
What matters in online education to students, faculty, universities?
What might higher education marketplace look like a decade from now?
QUESTIONS
Dr. Linda L. Baer [email protected]