Transcript Japan ppt - Dr. Brian W. Tempest

The Role of Generics in
Reducing the Cost of Healthcare
Dr. Brian W Tempest
Chief Mentor & Executive Vice Chairman of the Board
Ranbaxy Laboratories Limited, Delhi, India
Berlin, Germany, Wednesday 26th September 2007
Disclaimer
Except for the historical information contained herein, statements in this presentation and
the subsequent discussions, which include words or phrases such as “will”, “aim”, “will
likely result”, “would”, “believe”, “may”, “expect”, “will continue”, “anticipate”, “estimate”,
“intend”, “plan”, “contemplate”, “seek to”, “future”, “objective”, “goal”, “likely”, “project”,
“should”, “potential”, “will pursue” and similar expressions or variations of such
expressions
may
constitute
"forward-looking
statements".
These
forward-looking
statements involve a number of risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause
actual results to differ materially from those suggested by the forward-looking statements.
These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to our ability to successfully
implement our strategy, our growth and expansion plans, obtain regulatory approvals, our
provisioning policies, technological changes, investment and business income, cash flow
projections, our exposure to market risks as well as other risks. Ranbaxy does not
undertake
any obligation to update forward-looking statements to reflect events or
circumstances after the date thereof.
Asia’s Share of the World GDP (at PPP in %)
Year
1870
1913
China
India
Japan
Rest of Asia
17%
12%
2%
7%
9%
8%
3%
5%
Total Asia
38%
25%
1950
5%
4%
3%
7%
19%
Source – WEF
- was 59% in 1820 with India 16%, China 33%
1973
2001
5%
3%
8%
9%
12%
5%
7%
13%
25%
37%
Asia on the Rise
Source – FT
Reducing the Cost of Healthcare
India
1 chemist
70 hours/week
$ 800 monthly
a usa Pharma view
Better education x 1.3
Longer working time x 1.3
Lower cost x 20
USA
1 chemist
50 hours/week
$ 12,000 monthly
Sources: IPHMR Conferences, New Delhi August 2004
The Ageing Advantage

Japan
- by 2050 36% > 65 years from 19% in 2005

China
- one child families, get older before becoming wealthy
- labour costs will rise owing to labour shortage

India
-
India already has the youngest labour force in the world
source of the extra needed global workforce
India will pass China in total population in 2030
By 2013 India will have more young workers 20-24 than China
Working Population, 15-64 years
In millions
Median Age in Asia
Years
2000
2025
2050
India
24
31
38
China
30
39
44
Japan
41
50
53
Sources: Rand Corporation
The Economic Growth Advantage

Growth
- Japan, sustain current growth
- China, slightly slower growth to prevent hard landing
- India, increasing growth rate being talked up to 9%/10%

Sentiment
- India, largest foreign affairs caucus in US Congress (180), nuclear deal
- China, 74,000 demonstrations reported in 2005 in China. State secrecy, IP
The R&D Investment Advantage
Most attractive R&D Investment locations:
Ranked 3rd - China, USA, India, Japan & UK
Source – UNCTAD 2005
Reasons why India:





Qualified Scientists & Engineers
Global India players with Alliances
English speaking
TRIPs compliant – first patent March 2006
IIT, IIM & other scientific institutions
Source – UNCTAD 2005
The Education Advantage

4th largest reservoir of Scientific Manpower (2nd largest English
speaking)

3m graduates pa, 115k MSc Chemistry (3.5k UK), 215k Eng (222k
USA)
Physics the most popular subject



Lead by a Nuclear Scientist as President – remote sensing
satellite technology, 1/6 countries
PCT application ranked 3rd – Kor, Chi, Ind, Sin, RSA
“US & Europe will not dominate Science, Maths, IT industries”
– Mr. Bill Gates
Science Education in EU
“This means that when pupils are in a science laboratory their
experience is unsafe, unsatisfactory or uninspiring for 65% of
the time.” Source: Royal Society of Chemistry, Policy Bulletin – Spring 2006
UK “A” Level entries:
2000
2005
Physics :
32,059
Chemistry: 40,856
Maths:
67,036
Computing: 19,099
% change
28,119 -12%
38,851 -5%
52,897 -21%
7,242
-62%
Closed UK University
Chemistry Departments:
Dundee
Surrey
Lancaster
Kings
Exeter
Queen Mary
Source: Daily Mail – 11 August 2006
Only pupils at private schools can take physics, chemistry & biology separately
Source: Times, 9th November 2006
Science Education in India
Number of Higher Education Institutions
05/06
00/01
90/01
80/01
18,123
11,412
5,932
4,861
Number of Students enrolled in
Higher Education Institutions
+59%
05/06
00/01
90/01
80/01
Source: Indian University Grants Commission
Number of Institutions courses
05/06
99/00
Pharmacy
1478
669
Medicine
229
174
Physiotherapy 205
52
10,500
7,500
4,000
3,000
+40%
Source: Indian University Grants Commission
PhD Degree awarded in Science
+120%
+32%
+294%
Source: Pavan Agarwal (2006) based on data
from professional councils
03/04
5408
00/01
3734
90/01
2950
(USA 03/04 25,000)
+44%
Source: Indian University Grants Committee
The Education Advantage
Engineers/Science graduates p.a – India 0.7m, China 0.5m, EU 0.5m, USA 0.4m, Japan 0.3m
The Education Advantage
The Pharma Plants Advantage
Active Pharmaceuticals Facility, Mohali
Dosage Forms Facility, Paonta Sahib
The Pharma R&D Advantage
Electronic Data Capture
R&D hotbeds
•An Indian specialty
•300 staff GSK
-2.2m clinical data sheets
-450 trials
-Error rate <0.01/100k
-No data security issues
“China & India have become R&D
hotbeds……….. MNCs already operate
some 180 R&D centres in China and
More than 100 in India”
Source: BCG report ‘Looking Eastward Sep’2006’
Source: BCG report ‘Looking Eastward Sep’2006’
2005
2004
PCT Filers from Developing Countires 2006
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Huawei – China
LG – Korea
Samsung – Korea
LG Chem – Korea
Elec Telecom – Korea
2001
6. ZTE – China
7. STR – Singapore
8. Ranbaxy – India
9. CSIR – India
10. NHN – Korea
185
2000
170
146
1999
24
32
49
86
Source: WIPRO
Ranbaxy’s Patent Filings
The Pharma Clinical Advantage
Cost Advantage
China
India
Cost
Patients/site
16
500
40
250
Based on USA at 100 Index
Source: BCG report ‘Looking Forward 2006’
Speed Advantage USA
India
Sites
22
8
Subject
626
896
Source: Andy Lee Pfizer Global, head clinical study and
data management. Business India, August 13, 2006
Patients
-
Naïve untreated patients
HIV
50m
Diabetes
32m
HT
5m
Medical Tourism
Cardiac Surgery
$000s
USA
Singapore
Thailand
India
30
20
14
5-7
Source: Business world, 18th Dec’2006
“………..The Country’s World Class skills in Chemistry & IT and it’s large treatment naive
patient population provides added allure”
Boston Consultancy Group
Harnessing the power of India 2006
Investment by Microsoft in India

Microsoft Global Development Centre (GDCI)

Microsoft Global Services (MGSI)

Microsoft Global Technical Support Centre
(GTSC)

Microsoft Systems Research (MSRI)

Microsoft India Development Centre (MIDC)
India
A Global Strategic Asset for developed
World Market businesses
Top 5 Global Pharmaceutical Markets 2020
Rank
Country
Size
1.
USA
$ 475b
2.
China
$ 125b
3.
Japan
$ 61b
4.
France
$ 51b
5.
India
$ 43b
Sources: Goldman Sachs 2007
Generics – API’s
USA DMF filings by India
2004
2005
2006
India
187
252
357
China
48
87
128
% Share of USA DMF filings
2004
2005
2006
Q1’07
India
27%
37%
44%
48%
China
9%
10%
14%
17%
Source: US FDA / J P Morgan, 6th August 2006
Source: US FDA / J P Morgan, 2 May 2007
Source: US FDA, Credit Suisse
Generics - ANDAs
ANDA Filings in USA by Indian Companies
300
250
250
200
144
150
100
46
50
64
24
0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
- One in every four ANDAs filed by Indian Companies in top
USA FDA filers
Source: KPMG
- No Chinese generic company has yet filed a USA FDA ANDA
but expected in 2008
Discovery – Local vendors available in India to
Support Discovery Research
Vendor Availability
Analog preparation
Combinatorial chemistry
Analytical chemistry
Structural chemistry
Assay development
Computer drug design
High throughput Screening
Bio informatics
Genetically modified animals
Basic molecular biology
Source – BCG, ‘Looking Eastwards, September 2006’
*Out of 90 vendors in October 2005
India
41
37
37
26
26
26
11
13
0
13
China
25
7
7
5
2
13
2
7
3
25
Discovery – Local vendors available in India
to Support Clinical Research
Contract Research Organisations
Bio-equivalence & Bio-analytical
Data Management & enabled services
Site Management Organisations
Central Laboratories
Storage & Distribution
Centralised ECG Services
Clinical Research Training
Source – Pharmaceutical Technology Asia Pacific, March 2007
30
15
14
5
8
5
2
8
Patient Recruitment
The Tempest Crystal Ball
•India will continue to be a Key Driver in the Global Generic Industry
•Competition is rising – Post TRIPs Indian companies will evolve
•Discovery companies will continue to be attracted to India for CT, EDC,
MO. China will be perceived to be stronger in biology/ toxicology
•IP changes in US & India will slowly favor Generics
•Alliances between Western Biotech and Asians companies will expand.
M&A PE deals will grow
•How to use Asia in Germany will become the key opportunity
Perceptions of India
“The Indian System looks ramshackle
and improvised. But at its best it is
capable of brilliance”
“When we say the Silicon Valley is
built on ICs we don’t mean integrated
circuits – we mean Indians & Chinese”
“The UK needs to wake up to what
India is becoming”
Source: DEMOS report – January 2007
The Global challenge from Asia
The race to prosperity in Asia
Investment in Asia is rising
Key Challenges to the Scenario of
Asian Generic Pharma Companies
becoming a major force in Germany
Potential Challenge – Asian Flu*
*50% of world chickens bred in Asia
Potential Challenge – Oil prices
Source – BP
• A war against Iran could drive oil > $200 a barrel - ‘Times’ 22nd June 2006
• India is expected to import 85% of crude oil by 2012 from 70% today
Source – Assocham
Potential Challenge – Climate Change
CO2 emission - % of World total in 1990-2000
USA
EU 25
China
Russia
Japan
India
– source: WRI, EIA
23%
17%
14%
7%
5%
4%
Potential Challenge – Infrastructure
“Our greatest potential will be realised only if we can ensure that our
Infrastructure does not become a severe and critical handicap”
Source – Manmohan Singh
Corruption Perception Index
Rank
Country
1
5
11
16
20
42
51
70
121
163
Finland, Iceland, NZ
Singapore
Austria, Luxemburg, UK
Germany
Belgium, Chile, USA
Mauritius, S.Korea
South Africa, Tunisia
Brazil, China, India, Mexico
Philippines, Russia
Haiti
Sources: Transparency International 2006, selected countries only
Potential Challenge – over the border
Potential Challenge - Currency Volatility
Summary
Asia economic strength is returning to levels seen in the past
Many advantages for India in reducing the cost of healthcare
India is a global strategic asset for developed markets
India is a rich location for R&D alliances and CT outsourcing
MNCs will dip in & out of India & China
South East Asian economies will be driven by India & China
Japan will continue to represent a huge share of global wealth
“China & India represent the future of Asia and quite possibly the future for
the global economy” – Steve Roach, Morgan Stanley
Thank You