Transcript RAC Foundation

Motoring Towards 2050
The Transport Challenges:
The Road network
Stephen Glaister
Director RAC Foundation
1
Transport Times Conference 17 February 2010
Some principles
Rail and road face the SAME problems
They should be treated
together
consistently and even-handedly
It is not “public transport versus roads”!
You’ve got to do the sums!
The problems are:
Capacity and crowding
economic recovery
population growth
UK pop 61.4m rise to 71.6m by 2033
Carbon
Safety
Public expenditure
National Networks Study Programme
(Delivering a Sustainable Transport System)
Lot 7: London to Haven Ports (DfT)
Study Brief
25th November 2009
“Non-transport measures, including fiscal and those
involving longer term changes to land use or changes
to regulation, should also be considered.
The focus of the study, particularly in the short to
medium term, should not be on generating major
new road capacity.”
(emphasis in the original)
Conservative policies
Rail (Less than 10% of passenger and freight)
Reduce fares
implies more capacity?
Reduce crowding
Invest heavily in High Speed Rail network
Road (More than 90% of passenger and freight)
New road projects only “where … consistent with a responsible
approach to the public finances”.
The objectives:
to improve quality of life
to meet needs for mobility
whilst recognising
Not
carbon, congestion, pollution,
noise, severance etc. equity
“to get people out of their cars” or
“to promote rail use”
Shortage of public funds
How to spend reducing public funds most effectively?
The economics and politics of rail pricing mean that
rail schemes will usually increase public funding
But we can improve roads and reduce public
funding?
Funding vs social benefit
There is a fundamental difference between:
“this will generate benefits greater than the costs”
“this will not increase the demands on the taxpayer”
E. g. “… study after study shows that over time high speed
rail will pay for itself”
(Mrs Villiers, 12 January)
Past road traffic growth
(source: Road Statistics 2008, DfT)
www.racfoundation.org
9
National Traffic Forecast (DfT, 2008)
www.racfoundation.org
10
Government Plans on roads to 2015
January 2009
Hard shoulder running alternative to motorway widening,
520 additional lane miles to the national strategic road
network, of which 340 lane miles through hard shoulder
running.
£6bn investment announced in July 2008
(£1 bn. pa; c.f. £3 bn pa public funds on the railways)
Not much new capacity for local roads?
What would High Speed Rail achieve?
Greengauge21,
September 2009
12
Benefits:costs = 3.48:1
The cost to the taxpayer is £26.5 billion
(£400 per head of population)
13
HSR generates a lot of long
distance rail travel
Currently, all rail trips in the country of over 80 km
15 billion passenger km pa.
moving all over the country,
Greengague21:
53 billion passenger km pa (average length of 300 km) by 2055
on their new high speed railway
14
Railways are mainly used by the rich
Family Spending (2006) £ per week
Weekly expenditure (£)
160
Operation of pesonal transport
Rail and Tube
Purchase of Vehicles
Combined Fares
Bus and Coach
8.2
140
Spending on rail and Tube (£ pw)
120
100
3.7
2.3
80
60
1.9
1.4
2.1
1
40
1
0.6
20
0.3
0.4
0
141
160
233
261
303
362
479
584
683
990
443
Weekly household gross income (£)
15
The car is used by rich and poor
The Car in British Society, RAC F (2009)
Lowest
2nd
3rd
4th
Highest
16
What problems is HSR
a solution to?
Reducing carbon emissions?
Capacity shortages on classic rail?
Faster journeys to Midlands and Scotland?
Regional economic development?
Helping the poor – “social inclusion”?
17
HSR proposals are “predict and provide”
There is nothing wrong with this! …
… providing it is good value for money
and can be funded
There are many road schemes showing good
value for money: so do those too!
Deal with carbon
www.racfoundation.org
19
Committee on Climate Change, First Report, 12 October 2009
www.racfoundation.org
20
Committee on Climate Change, First Report, 12 October 2009
www.racfoundation.org
21
Attack the problem directly!
To reduce carbon from roads you need to attack the
problem directly
Policies on public transport will make very little
difference
(Similarly for congestion)
Picture is of more traffic
On current values
road congestion is a much bigger problem than carbon
Carbon in transport will be reduced by
 Implementation of better technology
 Decarbonising surface transport
 More sensible pricing
Carbon does not remove the need
for more road capacity!
www.racfoundation.org
23
How do we pay for it?
www.racfoundation.org
24
Increase fuel duty or VED?
Politically difficult?
Why tax an already over-taxed sector?
www.racfoundation.org
25
National Road Charging
NOT essential, but it helps!
A means to manage demand
more efficient use of existing network
A good way of dealing with carbon
A way of generating more funds
in order to enhance the network
safety, management, physical capacity
The alternatives
Let congestion continue to grow
More road capacity without reforming charging
Reform charging and heavily restrain demand
Reform charging to improve efficiency
AND additional capacity to preserve mobility
www.racfoundation.org
27
Institutions and governance matter!
With or without national road charging …
… change will require change in the
institutions
For Rail there is a coherent strategy
High Level Output Specification (HLOS)
Statement of Funds Available (SoFA)
Network Rail to promote railways
Independent Regulator to adjudicate that it all adds up
High Speed Rail proposals should fit within this framework
This is all missing for roads!
Water industry has many lessons?
Massive investment funded by charges to users
Improvement in water quality
Gradual acceptance of domestic metering
Benchmarking an important driver of efficiency
Statutory users’ representation
Industry has a duty to supply
Governance reform
Some lessons taken from the other public utilities ?
New and independent authorities could be a useful part of future reform.
We need better measures of quality of service
This would facilitate the necessary rebuilding of trust between
accountable bodies and users.
But it must be national
Corporate governance
options for roads
More independence for HA?
Public Benefit Corporation or public trust?
Regulated private provider?
Geographical scope?
There is no well-defined “strategic road network”
The National Policy Statement for Roads will be interesting!
What will happen to the RDA-funded roads?
What should be the scope of a new roads body?
Motorways?
Current HA-funded roads?
HA’s “roads of national significance”?
Conclusions
Do nothing??
New user charges on selected roads + tax reductions?
Government “HLOS and SoFA” for roads?
Enlarged Highways Agency given [what?] corporate status?
An independent regulator for roads and road safety?
To progress, a scheme …
… must offer a “deal”, including reduction of existing taxes
Understandable
Broadly “fair” (spell out winners and losers)
Credible (the arithmetic stacks up)
Technologically robust
Worthy of trust (can check if it’s delivered)
New charging scheme has to be national
except London, (Cambridge)….?
Roads taxation is controversial!
GB Roads: taxes (ex VAT) and government spending (2006 prices)
35
Local roads
30
£ billion
25
National roads
Other taxes
20
Fuel duty
15
10
5
0
1975
1981 - 82
1986 - 87
www.racfoundation.org
1996 - 97
2006 - 07
36
Railways are mainly used by the rich
Family Spending (2006) £ per week
18.0%
Proportion of expenditure (%)
Private vehicles
Bus and Coach
Rail and Tube
Combined Fares
16.0%
14.0%
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
141
160
233
261
303
362
479
584
683
990
443
Weekly household gross income (£)
37