Transcript From Nationals to Naturals: It’s a Natural Way to Think

From Nationals to Naturals:
It’s a Natural Way to Think
Lant Pritchett
International Migration: Challenges and Opportunities
in the New Age of Mobility
Public Affairs Conference 2008
April 11, 2008
Five Points
• The usual structuring of the migration discussion into
impacts on “sending” and “receiving” countries is
structured to ignore the gains to the movers
• Focus instead on income per natural—the income of
people born in a given place
• The wage gaps across workers are larger than ever in
history—and are largely pure discrimination
• Given the existing wage gaps there is nothing on the
agenda to address gaps in income per natural remotely
like allowing labor mobility
• The “myth” at the heart of the existing international
system will eventually have to be re-thought
The iron grip of place based
thinking
• Imagine a worker with above average income in
a poor country moves to a rich country and
makes twice as much but that is a below
average wage—and there are no effects on
anyone else (and the mover is much happier)
• Average wages in the sending country fall
• Average wages in the receiving country also fall.
• So migration is a bad thing? Because analysis of
sending and receiving countries reveals not
benefits?
Income per natural
• Think of the income per natural, per
person of people born in Jamaica, that is,
Jamaicans, no matter where they happen
to reside
• Income per natural is a measure of
development of Jamaicans.
• One is a place based measure and one is
a people based measure
Income per person (resident or natural)
“Guyana” poorer than Paraguay but
Guyanese are richer than Brazil
9000
8000
7000
6000
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4000
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2000
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Ratio of wages in PPP
Wages gaps across countries are
larger than ever before in history
10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
9.0 9.1
7.2 7.6
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4.1 4.4
2.4
US US US US Sp US UK Ita NL Ja
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In home
10000
In USA
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Annual eanrings (in PPP)
Wage gaps are largely discrimination paying
different wages to workers of equal
productivity on either side of the border
Annualized wages of
equivalent
workers—same nationality,
education, age, sex,
urban residence, sector
on either side of the border
Wage ratios of equivalent workers, in home
and in USA
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Discrimination induced by the US border exceeds
any other form of wage discrimination—and rivals
the wage impact of slavery
14
12
10
8
Slavery in Virginia,
1840-1860, ratio rental
to subsistence: 3.8
6
4
2
H
TI
0
Relaxing the discrimination against foreign
naturals participation in labor markets produces
larger gains than anything else available
• For micro-based interventions compare
the per person gain to the number of
days/weeks of gains from labor mobility
• Compare aggregate gains of “reforms” on
the world agenda
The total present value of access to a
lifetime of micro-credit is the wage difference
of 8 weeks work of the same worker in USA
versus in Bangladesh
14000.0
12000.0
PPP $
10000.0
8000.0
6000.0
4000.0
2000.0
0.0
Annual gain,
micro-credit
Monthly gain,
Net present
migration
Value, lifetime
of micro-credit
Annual gain,
migration
Source: Gains estimated from Pitt and Khandker for micro-credit
(annual gain of 14 percent of per capita HH consumption, CMP (forthcoming) for wages
Logic of the Pax Americana
• Proliferation of sovereigns—with
decolonization and end of empires many
more states with borders
• Free trade in goods promoted
• Free trade in capital promoted
• No expectation of labor mobility
Implicit Myth: Every sovereign state is capable
of an adequate standard of living for its
naturals within its sovereign borders
Is the myth true?
• Population mobility across physical space has
been a constant of human history for as long as
there has been human history
• Within large countries, like the USA, there is
massive gross and net labor mobility over time—
the emptying out of the rural middle
• The borders created by colonialists were not
driven by the logic of viable entities
• No deep reason from economic theory to
suppose this is so
Are we sure there are no ghost countries?
The emptying of the heartland (only green shaded
counties had substantial population increase over
a 60 year period)
Red=County Declined; Net Decline between 0 and 5,000
Purple=County Declined; Net Decline between 5,000 and 10,000
Blue=County Declined; Net Decline greater than 10,000
Green=County Increased by more than 10,000
Divide
Renville
Bottineau
Burke
Rolette
Cavalier
Pembina
Towner
Williams
Walsh
McHenry
Mountrail
Ward
Pierce
Ramsey
Benson
Grand
Forks
Nelson
McKenzie
McLean
Sheridan
Eddy
Wells
Dunn
Foster
Mercer
Billings
Griggs
Steele
Traill
Oliver
Golden
Valley
Kidder
Burleigh
Stutsman
Stark
Cass
Barnes
Morton
Slope
Hettinger
Logan
Grant
Ransom
La Moure
Emmons
Bowman
Adams
McIntosh
Sioux
Corson
Harding
Campbell
Richland
Dickey
Sargent
McPherson
Marshall
Perkins
Brown
Walworth
Edmunds
Roberts
Day
Dewey
Potter
Butte
Grant
Faulk
Spink
Ziebach
Codington
Sully
Clark
Meade
Lawrence
Deuel
Hamlin
Hand
Hyde
Hughes
Stanley
Haakon
Beadle
Kingsbury
Brookings
Pennington
Buffalo
Jerauld
Jones
Sanborn
Lyman
Miner
Lake
Moody
Custer
Jackson
Aurora
Brule
Hanson
Davison
Mellette
Minnehaha
Lyon
McCook
Shannon
Fall River
Tripp
Bennett
OÕBrien
Sioux
Brown
Union
Plymouth
Clay
Knox
Holt
Palo
Alto
Grant
Hooker
Thomas
Blaine
Garden
Garfield
Logan
Wayne
Hardin
Hamilton
Webster
Calhoun
Carroll
Boone
Greene
Black
Hawk
Grundy
Clayton
Delaware
Buchanan
Linn
Iowa
Johnson
Dawson
Dodge
Colfax
Shelby
Audobon
Guthrie
Dallas
Jasper
Polk
Poweshiek
Pottawattamie
Hall
Cass
Adair
Madison
Polk
Scott
Louisa
Mills
Montgomery
Adams
Union
Frontier
Gosper
Phelps
Kearney
Clarke
Rawlins
Decatur
Furnas
Harlan
Franklin
Webster
Clay
CassFremont
Page
Taylor
Ringgold
Decatur
Norton
Phillips
Smith
Sheridan
Graham
Rooks
Osborne
Gove
Trego
Ellis
Russell
Republic
Jewell
Washington
Mitchell
Richardson
Davis
Henry
Van Buren
Sullivan
Daviess De
Kalb
Des
Moines
Lee
Lane
Rush
Ness
Osage
McPherson
Rice
Marion
Miami
Anderson
Linn
Reno
Woodson
Greenwood
Ford
Polk
Cedar
Kingman
Wilson
Neosho
Dallas
W oods
Harper
Beaver
Webster
Wayne
Scott
Carter
Douglas
Stoddard
Ottawa
Craig
Barry
McDonald
W ashington
Cape
Girardeau
Bollinger
Shannon
Christian
Stone
Nowata
Perry
Reynolds
Texas
Wright
Jasper
Cherokee
Lawrence
Kay
Grant
Alfalfa
Ste .
Genevieve
St.
Francois
Madison
Greene
Montgomery Labette
Chautauqua
Newton
Texas
Iron
Barton
Dade
Cowley
Harper
Dent
Laclede
Crawford
Elk
Barber
Comanche
Crawford Washington
Phelps
Pulaski
Sumner
Clark
Maries
Camden
Vernon
Sedgwick
Pratt
Kiowa
Meade
Seward
Franklin
Jefferson
Miller
Bourbon
St. Louis
St. Louis City
Gasconade
Osage
Morgan
Benton
Hickory
Allen
St. Charles
Warren
Cole
Henry
Bates
Butler
Gray
Lincoln
Callaway
Moniteau
St. Clair
Edwards
Pike
Montgomery
Pettis
Cass
Harvey
Stafford
Haskell
Ralls
Audrain
Boone
Chase
Coffey
Hodgeman
Franklin
Marion
Monroe
Howard
Cooper
Lyon
Barton
Pawnee
Finney
Shelby
Randolph
Saline
Lafayette
Jackson
Johnson
Morris
Macon
Chariton
Carroll
Wyandotte
Johnson
Saline
Scott
Linn
Livingston
Ray
Clay
Leavenworth
Douglas
Lewis
Clinton
Platte
Jefferson
Wabaunsee
Clark
Knox
Caldwell
Buchanan
Jackson
Shawnee
Geary
Adair
Grundy
Holt
Brown Doniphan
Nemaha
Marshall
Riley
Schuyler Scotland
Harrison
Gentry
Pottawatomie
Clay
Dickinson
Ellsworth
Grant
Appanoose
Putnam
Mercer
Nodaway
Atchison
Stevens
Wayne
Worth
Atchison
Nemaha
Gage
Jefferson
Ottawa
Morton
Jefferson
Saline
Thayer
Lincoln
Stanton
Wapello
Sarpy
Seward
Fillmore
Nuckolls
Cloud
Thomas
Logan
Hamilton
Lucas
Otoe
Adams
Johnson
Red Willow
Andrew
Kearny
Washington
Monroe
Saunders
York
Hamilton
Douglas
Butler
Pawnee
Wichita
Keokuk
Mahaska
Marion
Lancaster
Hayes
Hitchcock
Greeley
Warren
Washington
Howard
Buffalo
Jackson
Marshall
Muscatine
Platte
Merrick
Perkins
Chase
Dubuque
Jones
Benton
Tama
Story
Clinton
Harrison
Burt
Nance
Dundy
Cimarron
Allamakee
Fayette
Bremer
Thurston
Stanton
Madison
Greeley
Sherman
Lincoln
Sherman
Howard
Chickasaw
Butler
Boone
Valley
Keith
Wallace
Mitchell
Floyd
Cedar
Wheeler
Custer
Cheyenne
Franklin
McPherson
Cheyenne
Deuel
Sac
Crawford
Monona
Cuming
Arthur
Ida
Dakota
Loup
Morrill
Cerro
Gordo
Wright
Pocahontas
Dixon
Antelope
Scotts Bluff
Hancock
Humboldt
Buena
Vista
Cherokee
Woodbury
Cedar
Rock
Pierce
Kimball
Clay
Lincoln
Yankton
Boyd
Cherry
Sheridan
Box Butte
Worth
Winnebago
Winneshiek
Turner
Charles Mix
Bon
Homme
Banner
Emmet
Dickinson
Kossuth
Hutchinson
Gregory
Keya Paha
Sioux
Osceola
Douglas
Todd
Dawes
Howell
Taney
Ripley
Ozark
Osage
S h e rm a n
Da lla m
Ha n sfo rd
New Madrid
Delaware
Noble
Garfield
W oodward
L ip sco m b
O ch iltre e
Pawnee
Major
Fulton
Carroll
Benton
Mayes
Rogers
Marion
Ha rtle y
M o o re
Hu tch in so n
Ro b e rts
Kingfisher
Blaine
Roger Mills
W agoner
Creek
Logan
Greer
B risco e
Ha ll
Cotton
Ha rd e m a n
Carter
B a ile y
Lam b
Flo yd
Ha le
Marshall
McCurtain
Choctaw
Howard
Bryan
Love
Wich ita
Foard
Prairie
Grant
T a lla h a tch ie
Clark
Dallas
Ho ckle y
L u b b o ck
Cro sb y
Dicke n s
G a rza
Kent
B a ylo r
A rch e r
Little River
Lam ar
G ra yso n
Co o ke
Re d Rive r
Hempstead
Fa n n in
B o wie
De lta
L yn n
Ja ck
Ha ske ll T h ro ckm o rto n
S to n e wa ll
Wise
De n to n
Co llin
Young
Da wso n
B o rd e n
S cu rry
Fish e r
Jo n e s
P a rke r
P a lo P in to
Wo o d
Ho wa rd
M itch e ll
No la n
T a ylo r
Jo h n so n
Ca lla h a n
E ra th
Wa rd
Cu lb e rso n
Hu d sp e th
M id la n d
Co ke
G la ssco ck
S te rlin g
T om
G re e n
Cra n e
Up to n
Re e ve s
Re a g a n
Irio n
Ha m ilto n
M ills
A n g e lin a
Ho u sto n
Wa sh in g to n
E d wa rd s
L ib e rty
A u stin
Ca ld we ll
Co m a l
G o n za le s
B ra zo ria
De Witt
A ta sco sa
K a rn e s
Ja ckso n
V icto ria
G o lia d
Ca lh o u n
M cM u lle n
Bee
L ive O a k
S a n P a tricio
Nu e ce s
Du va l
K le b e rg
Jim Ho g g
Re fu g io
A ra n sa s
Jim
We lls
We b b
Za p a ta
Acadia
St. Martin
Lafayette
Iberia
Vermilion
B ro o ks
Kenedy
S ta rr
Willa cy
Hid a lg o
Ca m e ro n
M a ta g o rd a
Randolph
Lee
Elmore
Macon
Dallas
Montgomery
Marengo
Choctaw
Russell
Bullock
Wilcox
Barbour
Butler
A mite
Ma rio n
P ike
Pike
L a ma r
P e rry
Monroe
St. John
the Baptist
Orleans
St. James
Assumption
St. Charles
St. Bernard
Ha n co ck
St. Martin
Jefferson
Plaquemines
Baldwin
S to n e
Ha rriso n
Iberville Ascension
Coffee
Dale
Covington
Escambia
Mobile
G e o rg e
P e a rl R ive r
Henry
Conecuh
Washington
G re e n e
W a lth a ll
Lafourche
Crenshaw
W a yn e
Washington
Terrebonne
G a lve sto n
G a lve sto n
Wilso n
Frio
L a S a lle
F ra n klin
East
Tangipahoa
Baton
WestRouge
St. Tammany
Baton
Livingston
Rouge
St. Mary
Fo rt B e n d
L a va ca
Wh a rto n
M a ve rick
Dim m it
Jefferson
Davis
Autauga
Chambers
Tallapoosa
Clarke
Ch a m b e rs
Co lo ra d o
G u a d a lu p e
B e xa r
M e d in a
Za va la
Je ffe rso n
Ha rris
Wa lle r
Fa ye tte
B a n d e ra
Uva ld e
W ilkin so n
Pointe
Coupee
O ra n g e
Cameron
K e n d a ll
Re a l
K in n e y
Calcasieu
Ha rd in
C la rke
Jo n e s
C o vin g to n
L a wre n ce Je ffe rso n
L in co ln
D a vis
F o rre st
West
St.
Feliciana East
Feliciana Helena
St. Landry
B a stro p
Ha ys
K e rr
V a l V e rd e
B re wste r
A d a ms
Avoyelles
Evangeline
Allen
San
Ja cin to
M o n tg o m e ry
L a u d e rd a le
Ja sp e r
Je ffe rso n
Ja sp e r
Beauregard
Perry
S imp so n
Rapides
Vernon
Ne wto n
T yle r
Ne wto n
Clay
Coosa
Chilton
Lowndes
S mith
S a b in e
P o lk
Wa lke r
Lee
T ra vis
S co tt
Hin d s
C la ib o rn e
Concordia
San
A u g u stin e
M a d iso n
G rim e s
B u rle so n
B la n co
T e rre ll
P re sid io
Grant
B ra zo s
K im b le
G ille sp ie
Tensas
La Salle
T rin ity
Ro b e rtso n
M ila m
Willia m so n
Shelby
Bibb
Catahoula
Sabine
Fa lls
B e ll
B u rn e t
L la n o
Tuscaloosa
No xu b e e
K e mp e r
Sumter
Franklin
C o p ia h
L a m p a sa s
San Saba
M a so n
W a rre n
Richland
Cleburne
Talladega
Pickens
W in sto n
Ne sh o b a
R a n kin
Caldwell
Natchitoches
Na co g d o ch e s
Leon
M cCu llo ch
L e a ke
Ma d iso n
Madison
Red
River
Winn
M e n a rd
S u tto n
Lincoln
Ouachita
De Soto
Co rye ll
Co n ch o
Cro cke tt
Issa q u e n a
East
Carroll
Fre e sto n e
S ch le ich e r
P e co s
Je ff Da vis
A tta la
Greene
Jackson
P a n o la
S h e lb y
L im e sto n e
M cL e n n a n
West
Morehouse Carroll
Bienville
Ru sk
Ch e ro ke e
A n d e rso n
B ro wn
Co le m a n
Union
Caddo
S m ith
He n d e rso n
Na va rro
B o sq u e
Co m a n ch e
Ru n n e ls
Bossier
G re g g
E llis
S o m e rve ll
Hill
E cto r
Win kle r
Ha rriso n
Ho o d
E a stla n d
M a rtin
A n d re ws
L o vin g
E l P a so
Ho lme s
Y a zo o
Claiborne
Webster
Up sh u r
Van
Za n d t
K a u fm a n
Jefferson
Hale
M a rio n
Calhoun
St. Clair
O ktib b e h a L o wn d e s
S h a rke y
Ra in s
Da lla s
T a rra n t
C h o cta w
C a rro ll
Hu mp h re ys
Chicot
Ashley
C la y
W e b ste r
Walker
Fayette
Lamar
Mo n tg o me ry
W a sh in g to n
Union
Lafayette
Ca ss
Ca m p
G a in e s
Columbia
T itu s M o rris
Ho p kin s
Hu n t
Ro ckwa ll
S h a ckle fo rd S te p h e n s
Bradley
Miller
Fra n klin
T e rry
Y o a ku m
Cherokee
Etowah
Drew
Calhoun
De Kalb
Marshall
Mo n ro e
G re n a d a
S u n flo we r L e flo re
Nevada Ouachita
Jackson
Madison
Morgan
Cullman
Blount
Desha
M o n ta g u e
Knox
K in g
Lawrence
Winston
Marion
C a lh o u n C h icka sa w
B o liva r
Lincoln
Cleveland
Limestone
Colbert
Franklin
L e e Ita wa mb a
P o n to to c
Y a lo b u sh a
Pike
Sevier
Lauderdale
T ish o min g o
P re n tiss
L a fa ye tte
C o a h o ma Q u itma n
Arkansas
Jefferson
A lco rn
T ip p a h
Un io n
P a n o la
Phillips
Cla y
Co ch ra n
Ma rsh a ll
T a te
T u n ica
Lee
Monroe
Garland
Montgomery
Hot Spring
Jefferson
Wilb a rg e r
Cottle
Motley
Lonoke
Pulaski
Saline
Polk
Pushmataha
Atoka
Johnston
B e n to n
D e S o to
Woodruff
St. Francis
Coal
Murray
Tillman
Crittenden
White
Faulkner
Perry
Scott
Le Flore
Pontotoc
Garvin
Stephens
Ch ild re ss
Cross
Conway
Yell
Latimer
Comanche
Jackson
S wish e r
Poinsett
Jackson
Pope
Logan
Sebastian
Pittsburg
McClain
Harmon
Ca stro
P a rm e r
Mississippi
Craighead
Independence
Cleburne
Franklin
Haskell
Seminole
Hughes
Pottawatomie
Kiowa
Van Buren
Johnson
Sequoyah
MacIntosh
Cleveland
Grady
Co llin g swo rth
Dunklin
Lawrence
Searcy
Stone
Crawford
Okfuskee
W ashita
Caddo
Do n le y
Pemiscot
Muskogee
Okmulgee
Oklahoma
Wh e e le r
Beckham
A rm stro n g
Ra n d a ll
Newton
Adair
Lincoln
Custer
Canadian
G ra y
Ca rso n
P o tte r
O ld h a m
De a f S m ith
Madison
Washington
Cherokee
Greene
Sharp
Izard
Tulsa
Payne
Dewey
Clay
Randolph
Baxter
Boone
Ellis
He m p h ill
Mississippi
Butler
Oregon
Ja ckso n
Geneva
Houston
Massive Internal Mobility: Contiguous
regions of the USA are a third their
demographic counter-factual size
Region of the
United States
(contiguous
counties)
% change
in
populatio
n 19301990
Ratio of
current
population
to counter
factual at
rate of
natural
increase
Number of
countries (of 192)
with smaller area
(with examples)
Ratio of area per
capita income to
national average
Texlahoma
-36.8%
0.31 117/192
(Nicaragua,
Bangladesh)
92.2%
Heartland
-34.0%
0.33 117/192
85.2%
Deep South
-27.9%
0.36 96/192
(Jordan, Austria, Sri
Lanka)
62.6%
What I did not say
• The usual discussions of “sending country”
impacts (remittances, brain drain) are
driven by place based thinking
• Income per natural is people based
thinking that is the natural way to think
• We are swimming in an ideology of
nationalism—that may or may not continue
And social change takes time.. But can be
complete
Attitudes towards Interracial Marriage in the US
Percentage of Population
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
Percentage of Population
Approving
10
0
Year
1963
MLK assassinated
MLK’s March
on
Washington
1992
LA riots spurred by
tape of Rodney
King beating
Barack Obama
runs for President
of the United
States