Transcript 220109 DSCE Briefing to DSTL

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Representing Influence Activities through
System Dynamics
Lawrence Dack
[email protected]
© Crown Copyright 2009
Jim Sanderson
Nicky Schranz
Jess Allen
Patrick Beautement
Lawrence Dack
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Representing Influence Activities through
System Dynamics
Influence Operations
System Dynamics
SD Models of Influence
Observations
Questions
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Influence Operations
• Gen. Stanley McChrystal: “... accomplish three tasks
simultaneously:
– Influence insurgent-minded individuals to adopt a neutral disposition.
– Influence neutral-minded individuals to adopt a supportive disposition.
– Retain supportive individuals."
• Gen David Petraeus: COMSAF COIN guidance 2nd Aug 2010
24 points, including:
– Secure and serve the population
– Build relationships
– Be a good guest
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Afganistan Stability / COIN Dynamics
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The Case for System Dynamics
Need to understand
the big picture and
dynamic behaviour
Salary package
Role attractiveness
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15000
chance of
persuasion
potential
recruits
Levers for
change
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enlistments
actual
recruits
•Constants, parameters, numbers
•Regulating negative feedback loops
•Driving positive feedback loops
•Material flows
•Information flows
•The rules of the system
•The distribution of power over the rules
•The goals of the system
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Representing Influence (1) – Transition Ops
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Representing Influence (2) –
The Complex Operating Environment
Effectiveness
Support
tasks
Mission
Tasks
Actors
Coalitions
Conquest
Regions
Activities
SoDs
Planning
Interventions
Reserves
Events
Demand
Resources
Resource
Generation
Permissiveness
Consequences
Actions
Approval
Supporters
Memory
Decisions
QoL
Perception
SoIs
Attitudes
Behaviour
Groups
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Critique
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COIN Model:
– Strengths: Comprehensive scope
– Weaknesses: Accessibility, V&V
– Threats: Misunderstanding of purpose
•
TM:
– Strengths: Succinct, explainable, instantaneous results
– Weaknesses: Structural assumptions hardwired into model, Homogenous
actors, packaging and interpretation of results
– Threats: Changes to the context
•
HCCM:
– Strengths: Generic, Highly configurable, Can craft bespoke displays
– Weaknesses: Hard thought required to create specific model from general case,
‘Iceberg’ logic, More expertise required to use
– Threats: Data availability
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Concluding Remarks
•
Influence Operations require:
– A broad understanding of complex inter-relationships
– Sense-making which goes beyond simple cause-and-effect
– Decision-making which balances short and long-term goals, and handles
uncertain or incomplete information
•
System Dynamics models offer:
– Clear representation of relationships within the big picture
– Evaluation of the impact of feedback and parameter changes
– Responsive modelling timescales
•
Modelling challenges along the way:
– Building: Goldilocks options between the specific and the generic, between
fidelity, scope and comprehensibility
– Running: configuring incomplete knowledge
– Exploitation – understanding the significance of what is reported and the
appropriate weight to place on it
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Representing Influence Activities through
System Dynamics
Lawrence Dack
Lead Modeller
[email protected]
© Crown Copyright 2009
Jim Sanderson – Theme lead
Nicky Schranz - Architect
Jess Allen – Human Factors
Patrick Beautement – Complexity ‘guru’
Lawrence Dack - Modeller
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