Transcript No Slide Title

“Challenges and
Opportunities”
Presented by:
Dr. Jesus “Jess” Carreon
Chancellor,
Dallas County Community College
District
Purpose of Presentation

To establish a framework that sets in
motion a more strategic approach to
planning district-wide

To identify Key Challenges

To identify Key Opportunities
“Nothing influences a state’s
prosperity more than the education
of its people.”
Dallas County represents
* 15% of Texas labor force
* 11% of Texas population
SREB Goals for Education: Challenge to Lead, 2002
Primary Enrollment Drivers

Population

Demographics

Economic Conditions

Unemployment Rate (used as indicator)
U.S. Regional Growth
by 2025
South and West will comprise
majority of growth
 Northeast
 Midwest
 West
 South
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
17.1%
20.7%
26%
36.2%
Population

More specifically,
Dallas
Texas
U.S.
1990
2000
1,852,810
2,218,899
2,697,280
16,986,510
20,851,820
25,897,018
281,421,906
321,102,935
248,709,873
% Change
1990-2000
2000-2010
Dallas
Texas
U.S.
19.8%
22.8%
13.1%
21.6%
24.2%
14.1%
Source: Texas State Data Center , U.S. Census Bureau
2010
Population (cont.)
Dallas County
(In millions)
3.5
+ 3,200,000
?
3.0
?
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
614,799
0.0
1950
1960
1970
Source: Texas State Data Center
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
Demographics
US
Asian
Texas
Others
Asian
Hispanic 13%
Afr-Am 12%
Hispanic
Anglo
32%
69%
Afr-Am 12%
2000 Census
Source: Texas State Data Center , U.S. Census Bureau
Others
Anglo
52%
Demographics (cont.)
Dallas County by Ethnicity
(in millions)
4.0
3.5
3.0
Total
2.5
Hispanic
2.0
1.5
Anglo
1.0
0.5
Afri-American
All Others
0
1980
1990
Source: Texas State Data Center
2000
2010
2020
Demographics (cont.)
Educational Attainment

High School Graduate (or higher)



Dallas = 75%
Texas = 75.7%, ranked 45th in U.S
Bachelor’s Degree (or higher)


Dallas = 27%
Texas = 23.3%, ranked 27th in U.S.
Source: Texas State Data Center , U.S. Census Bureau
Demographics (cont.)
Dallas County Public School Students (K-12)
by Ethnicity, 2002-03
100,000
90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
Level
#Students
Afr-Am
Hispanic
All Others
Anglo
Pre-1st
1-6
49,755
199,479
7-8
64,102
Total Students = 428,406
Source: Texas Education Agency
9-12
115,070
DCCCD Growth by College
1992-2002
Fall Credit Students
16,000
RLC+
14,000
12,000
BHC EFC
10,000
NLC
8,000
MVC *
6,000
ECC
4,000
CVC
2,000
0
1992
93
94
Source: DCCCD Facts Brief
95
96
97
98
99
0
1
2002
DCCCD Credit Students

Gender

Female = 58% Male = 42%
• Majority female since the 1980’s

Age

Average = 28 yrs, Median = 24 yrs
• Somewhat constant since the 1990’s
Source: DCCCD Facts Brief
DCCCD (cont.)

Ethnicity

Increasing Diversity
Fall 2002
Fall 1992
Asian
6%
Hispanic
11%
All
Others
<2%
Afri-Am 17%
Anglo
65%
Others
Asian
9%
4%
Anglo
44%
Hispanic
20.5%
Afri-Am
22%
55,000 students
Source: DCCCD Facts Brief
60,000 students
Enrollment Forecast
% Change in Projected Texas
Community College Enrollments
% Change
2000-10
2010-20
2020-30
Anglo
3.8
-3.3
-1.2
AfricanAll
American Hispanic Others
21.5
48.8
50.7
8.9
36.7
47.0
6.1
40.0
43.4
Source: Texas State Data Center
Total
21.2
15.5
20.5
DCCCD Enrollment Forecasts
DCCCD Fall
Credit Students
Population
(in millions)
3.5
80,000
60,000
3.0
2.50
2.0
40,000
20,000
1.5
1.0
.5

Fall 2015
Closing the Gap (GAP)
Target = 89,000
Age Cohort Participation
(ACP) Estimate = 74,000
Unknowns (and likely to encourage additional growth)
 Minority participation rates
 Increased university tuition
Forecasts (cont.)

Unknowns
 Caps (limits) on university freshmen
class admissions
 Aging Boomers and life-long learning
 Increased need for more postsecondary and technical education
training
 The Economy
but, History has taught us. . .
DCCCD Lessons Learned
from the 1990’s to Present

Strong Economy (low unemp rate)


credit course demand tends to decrease
Weak Economy (high unemp rate)

credit course demand tends to INCREASE
Job Creation & Skills Needed
2000-2020


80% of the jobs created will require
more post-secondary education and
technical training
Top 10 fastest growing jobs are in
two areas


Information (and related)
Health Care (and related)
Lessons (cont.)

All impacted by weak economy, but

Students most vulnerable
•
•
•
•
•
part-time
recently unemployed and under employed
adults
under-prepared
under-served
How the Economy Impacts
Funding



State and local revenue sources
fluctuate with the economy
In the past, a strong economy has
generally supported growth
Competition for resources creates
uncertainty!
Economic Comparisons
Historically, during a . . .

Strong Economy

Dallas unemp lower than state
1998 Avg Unemployment: Dallas = 3.2%
Texas = 4.8%

Weak Economy

Dallas unemp higher than state
2002 Avg Unemployment: Dallas = 7.1%
Texas = 6.3%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
How do these lessons about
funding impact the present and
future of the
Dallas County Community College
District?
The Bottom Line
As DCCCD credit demand
continues to grow, state
funding has declined and
future stable funding is
uncertain!
State Funding Trends
FY1966 - FY2003
Texas Appropriations for Higher Education
per $1,000 of Personal Income
14
12
10
8
6
FY 1966
FY 2003
Source: Postsecondary Education, OPPORTUNITY, Dec 2002
State Appropriation Contribution Ratio
Pct of Total Educational &
General Expenditures
DCCCD,1982 - 2004
80%
70%
60%
(High)
50%
1984 = 73.4%
40%
30%
2002 = 40.3%
20%
est. 2003 = 35.9%
10%
2004 = 36.5%
0%
1982
1990
Source: DCCCD 2002-03 Approved Budget
1995
2000
DCCCD Challenges





Economic fluctuations
Competition for state and local $
Increased need for an educated and
trained workforce
Need to “increase capacity” to meet
demand
Changing demographics, technology
and workplace
DCCCD Opportunities

Increasing




Population
Diversity of Population
Need to “expand capacity” to meet
student, community and business
demand for a skilled workforce
Enrollment in higher ed (majority of Texas
freshmen/sophomores are in community colleges)

Anywhere & Anytime Learning
Preparing and Planning
Toward our Future . . .



The challenge of funding
The challenge of change
The challenge of maintaining quality
programs and services
Preparing and Planning
Toward our Future . . .



The opportunity to continue to shape
how DCCCD serves its communities
The opportunity to take greater
control of our future
The opportunity to be a greater force
in shaping Dallas County, the state of
Texas and our nation
The Future is Ours to Shape . . .
We should always be cognizant
that
“People will always pay for
quality”!
(a quote from my dad who owned a dry
cleaning establishment)