Transcript Results from the TEMIS project

TEMIS – VITO activities
Felix Deutsch
Koen De Ridder
Jean Vankerkom
VITO – Flemish Institute for Technological Research
Mol, Belgium
TEMIS user workshop, Frascati, 8-9 October 2007
Contents
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Short overview of the BelEUROS-modelling system
Results reached in TEMIS
- Improvement of boundary conditions for BelEUROS
- Contribution of LRTAP to air quality in Belgium
Possible future contributions to TEMIS
TEMIS user workshop, Frascati, 8-9 October 2007
Overview of the BelEUROS-modelling system
• EUROS created by RIVM (Netherlands) for modelling of ozone
• in Belgium implemented in 2001 for ozone
• in 2004/2005 BelEUROS extended by VITO with two modules for modelling
additionally primary and secondary particulate matter (PM10, PM2.5)
• Meteo: ECMWF (T, rH, wv+wd, CC, PR, mixing layer height)
• Emissions: EMEP/CORINAIR; additionally local emission inventories
with higher resolution, e.g. for Belgium
• Chemistry: for O3, NOx: Carbon Bond IV (CB-IV) gas phase mechanism,
for PM10, PM2.5: CACM + aerosol module MADRID 2
• Resolution: horizontal: 60 km/15 km or 7.5 km;
vertical: 4 layers (chemistry), 14 layers: advection
TEMIS user workshop, Frascati, 8-9 October 2007
Overview of the BelEUROS-modelling system
N
Figuur: Basisrooster van 0,55° x 0,55°.
TEMIS user workshop, Frascati, 8-9 October 2007
Overview of the BelEUROS-modelling system
refined grid: resolution 15 km x 15 km (or 7.5 km x 7.5 km)
TEMIS user workshop, Frascati, 8-9 October 2007
Overview of the BelEUROS-modelling system
• 6 pollutants
NOx VOC SO2 NH3 PM2.5
PM10-2.5
• 8 emission sectors
traffic
residential
sources
refineries
agriculture
combustion
industry
solvents
nature
TEMIS user workshop, Frascati, 8-9 October 2007
Results reached in TEMIS
required input data:
• meteorology: 3-D fields of wind speed & direction, temperature, humidity,
cloud cover, precipitation, mixing height (ECMWF)
• emissions: per pollutant (NOx, VOCs, …) and per sector (traffic, industry,
biogenic)
but additionally
• boundary conditions: concentrations of O3, NO2 and all other
chemical species at the boundaries of the model domain (up
to now climatological values); these lateral boundary values
were specified as long-term (monthly) mean concentrations), but
no actual concentrations for a certain period
TEMIS user workshop, Frascati, 8-9 October 2007
Results reached in TEMIS
Methodology for improved boundary conditions for the
BelEUROS-model
• Retrieval of 3-D concentration fields of all chemical species of
the CB-IV mechanism from the TM4 model and interpolation to
the lateral grid cells of BelEUROS to replace the climatologies
TEMIS user workshop, Frascati, 8-9 October 2007
Results: Improved BC
Ozone concentrations at the Western boundary of the BelEUROS domain
simulated by TM4
O3 evolution (4 layers) zone 8
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Layer 1
Layer 2
Layer 3
Layer 4
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Conc. [µg/m3]
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TEMIS user workshop, Frascati, 8-9 October 2007
Results: Improved BC
Ozone: Comparison of TM4 BC and BelEUROS climatology
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O3 evolution (layers 2 & 3) zone 8 and BelEUROS climatology
Layer 1
Layer 2
BelEUROS CLIM
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Conc. [µg/m3]
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TEMIS user workshop, Frascati, 8-9 October 2007
Results: Improved BC
NO2 concentrations at the Western boundary of the BelEUROS domain
as simulated by TM4
NO2 evolution (layer 2 & 3) zone 8
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Layer 2
Layer 3
Conc. [µg/m3]
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TEMIS user workshop, Frascati, 8-9 October 2007
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Results: Improved BC
TM4: Episode of transatlantic NO2-transport
NO2 evolution (layer 2 & 3) zone 8
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Layer 3
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TEMIS user workshop, Frascati, 8-9 October 2007
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Conc. [µg/m3]
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Results: Improved BC
NO2: Comparison of TM4 BC and BelEUROS climatology
NO2 evolution (layer 2 & 3) zone 8 and BelEUROS climatology
1,2
Layer 2
Layer 3
BelEUROS CLIM
Conc. [µg/m3]
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TEMIS user workshop, Frascati, 8-9 October 2007
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Results: Improved BC
Ozone 41R012 Ukkel 2005
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observation
model with climatology BC
model with TM4 BC
Concentration [µg/m³]
100
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1/04/05
8/04/05
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29/04/05
6/05/05
Bias: -27,1 % (Clim.); -9,1 % (TM4)
TEMIS user workshop, Frascati, 8-9 October 2007
13/05/05
20/05/05
27/05/05
Results: Improved BC
Ozone 41R012 Ukkel 2005
80
observation
model with climatology BC
model with TM4 BC
Concentration [µg/m³]
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40
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1/11/05
8/11/05
15/11/05
22/11/05
29/11/05
6/12/05
Bias: -44,9 % (Clim.); -24,5 % (TM4)
TEMIS user workshop, Frascati, 8-9 October 2007
13/12/05
20/12/05
27/12/05
Results: Contribution of LRTAP
Impact of transatlantic O3 transport on European air quality (O3)
BE: 37 %
annual mean
contribution
TEMIS user workshop, Frascati, 8-9 October 2007
Results: Contribution of LRTAP
Impact of transatlantic O3 transport on European air quality (NO2)
BE: 6.5 %
annual mean
contribution;
increasing O3
background can
lead to nonattainment of
EU limit value
for NO2 by
changing the
NO/NO2-ratio!
TEMIS user workshop, Frascati, 8-9 October 2007
Results: Contribution of LRTAP
Impact of transatlantic NO2 transport on European air quality (NO2)
TEMIS user workshop, Frascati, 8-9 October 2007
Results: TEMIS website
Impact of transatlantic NOx transport on European air quality (O3)
TEMIS user workshop, Frascati, 8-9 October 2007
Conclusions
1) Nesting of the components of the ozone chemistry of BelEUROS into
TM4 concentration fields resulted in more realistic representation of
long range transport of air pollutants in BelEUROS simulations.
2) This improved the model performance, e.g. of ozone simulations in
winter/spring/autumn.
3) Calculations showed the high impact of transatlantic O3-transport on
annual mean O3- and NO2-concentrations in Europe. Transatlantic NO2transport can have an impact on NO2-concentrations during episodes.
4) Model performance would certainly benefit from a further improvement
of boundary conditions by using Earth Observation data, also for the
fine particulate matter species.
TEMIS user workshop, Frascati, 8-9 October 2007
Possible future contributions to TEMIS
• Further improvement of boundary conditions for the
BelEUROS model:
– nesting of the fine particulate matter version of BelEUROS into
TM4 concentration fields (PM2.5, NH4+, SO42-, NO3-)
– using Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) data for improved boundary
conditions, taking LRT of fine particulate matter into
consideration
– using tropospheric ozone data for improved boundary conditions
and LRT of ozone
TEMIS user workshop, Frascati, 8-9 October 2007
Possible contributions to TEMIS II
Daily forecast of PM10 concentrations for the Belgian
Interregional Environment Agency: These forecasts
only use local information and suffer from the lack of
information on long range transport of PM10
• Improvement of PM10
forecasts using AOD
observations from
satellites, especially for
taking e.g. Sahara dust,
forest fires and biomass
burning into consideration
TEMIS user workshop, Frascati, 8-9 October 2007
Possible contributions to TEMIS II
• Detection of upcoming PM clouds:
– Combination of forecast model with trajectory model and AOD data
– combine AOD EO data with forecasted back trajectories by e.g.
Flextra/Flexpart
– This would permit the detection of upcoming PM clouds
TEMIS user workshop, Frascati, 8-9 October 2007