Transcript Precision Ag - A Midwestern Look at Cotton Production

O K L A H O M A
OSU Corn Algorithm
S T A T E
U N I V E R S I T Y
GLOBAL WARMING
ATMOSPHERE
O K L A H O M A
S T A T E
U N I V E R S I T Y
15-40 kg/ha
N2O
NO
N2
INDUSTRIAL
FIXATION
N2 FIXATION
10-80 kg/ha
PLANT
LOSS
SYMBIOTIC
NON-SYMBIOTIC
MESQUITE
RHIZOBIUM
ALFALFA
SOYBEAN
BLUE-GREEN ALGAE
AZOTOBACTER
CLOSTRIDIUM
LIGHTNING,
RAINFALL
PLANT AND ANIMAL
RESIDUES
HABER BOSCH
(1200°C, 500 atm)
3H2 + N2
2NH3
MATERIALS WITH N
CONTENT > 1.5%
(COW MANURE)
FERTILIZATION
MATERIALS WITH N
CONTENT < 1.5%
(WHEAT STRAW)
AMINO
ACIDS
0-50 kg/ha
NH3
AMMONIA
VOLATILIZATION
AMINIZATION
ORGANIC
MATTER
HETEROTROPHIC
R-NH2 + ENERGY + CO2
BACTERIA (pH>6.0)
FUNGI (pH<6.0)
IMMOBILIZATION
Pseudomonas, Bacillus,
Thiobacillus Denitrificans,
and T. thioparus
pH>7.0
R-NH2 + H2O
FIXED ON
EXCHANGE
SITES
AMMONIFICATION
NH2OH
R-OH + ENERGY + 2NH3
N2O2MINERALIZATION
+ NITRIFICATION
MICROBIAL/PLANT
SINK
2NH4+ + 2OH-
+O2
NO2-
OXIDATION STATES
NH3 AMMONIA
-3
NH4+ AMMONIUM
-3
N2 DIATOMIC N
0
N2O NITROUS OXIDE 1
NO NITRIC OXIDE
2
NO2- NITRITE
3
NO3 NITRATE
5
NO3POOL
DENITRIFICATION
LEACHING
2NO2- + H2O + 4H+
Nitrobacter
LEACHING
VOLATILIZATION
NITRIFICATION
TEMP 50°F
LEACHING
NITRIFICATION
LEACHING
+ O2
Joanne LaRuffa
Wade Thomason
Shannon Taylor
Heather Lees
LEACHING
pH 7.0
0-40 kg/ha
Department of Plant and Soil Sciences
Oklahoma State University
ADDITIONS
LOSSES
OXIDATION REACTIONS
REDUCTION REACTIONS
U N I V E R S I T Y
S T A T E
O K L A H O M A
Can Yield Potential (similar to “yield
goals”) be Predicted MID-SEASON?
Is it better than a preplant N decision?
O K L A H O M A
=
NDVI at F5
Days from planting to sensing, GDD>0
8.0
7.0
43 Locations, 1998-2006
YP0 = 0.409e258.2 INSEY
6.0
R2=0.50
YP0 + 1Std Dev = 0.590 e258.2 INSEY
Grain yield, Mg/ha
S T A T E
U N I V E R S I T Y
INSEY
5.0
Winter
Wheat
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
0
0.001
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.005
INSEY
Units: biomass, kg/ha/day, where GDD>0
0.006
0.007
0.008
0.009
0.01
PKNP 1998
PKSN 1998
TPSN 1998
PKNP 1999
222 1999
301 1999
EFAA 1999
801 1999
502 1999
PKNP 2000
222 2000
301 2000
EFAA 2000
801 2000
502 2000
HNAA 2000
PKNP 2001
222 2001
301 2001
EFAA 2001
801 2001
PKNP 2002
222 2002
301 2002
EFAA 2002
801 2002
HNAA 2002
502 2003
222 2003
EFAA 2003
PKNP 2004
222 2004
301 2004
502 2004
2005
2006
U N I V E R S I T Y
Predicting Yield
Potential in Corn
INSEY
NDVI, V8 to V10
=
Days from planting to sensing
20
104-day (2003)
20 Locations, 2002-2005
Hybrid Corn, Mexico, Nebraska, Iowa,
Oklahoma, Virginia, Ohio
V8-V10 (44 to 69 days)
18
16
107-day (2003)
111-day (2003)
99-day (2004)
113-day (2004)
O K L A H O M A
Grain yield, Mg ha -1
S T A T E
14
105-day (2002)
109-day (2002)
1.7916
y = 19583x
R2 = 0.71
12
113-day (2002)
113-day (OFIT)
10
108-day (OFIT)
Efaw (2003)
8
LCB (2003)
Efaw (2004)
6
LCB 2004
Mexico (2002)
4
Shelton (2004)
0
0.002
Ames (2004)
CORN
2
0.004
0.006
0.008
0.01
INSEY
0.012
0.014
0.016
Ohio
0.018
U N I V E R S I T Y
Grain yield, bu/ac
S T A T E
80
1971
1972
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
O K L A H O M A
Long-Term Winter Wheat Grain Yields, Lahoma, OK
90
0-40-60
Exp. 502, 1971-2006
100-40-60
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Response to Fertilizer N, Long-Term Winter Wheat
140
Exp. 502, 1971-2006
120
Optimum N Rate, lb/ac
Optimum N Rate
Avg. 49 lb N/ac +/- 39
Max Yield
Avg. 43 bu/ac +/- 13
100
80
60
40
20
0
19
71
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
O K L A H O M A
S T A T E
U N I V E R S I T Y
Experiment, Lahoma, OK
“After the FACT” N Rate required for “MAX Yields” Ranged from 0 to 140 lbs N/ac
O K L A H O M A
3.25
3.00
2.75
2.50
RI Harvest
S T A T E
U N I V E R S I T Y
Can RI be Predicted in Wheat?.... YES
67 Locations, 1998-2004
y= -0.70 + 1.69X (x<1.72)
y= 1.13 + 0.45X (x>1.72)
R2 = 0.53
2.25
2.00
1.75
1.50
1.25
1.00
0.75
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.25 1.50
RINDVI
1.75
2.00
2.25
2.50
2.75
O K L A H O M A
S T A T E
U N I V E R S I T Y
Can RI Be
Predicted in Corn?... YES
Mullen
Agronomy Journal
95:347-351 (2003)
Winter Wheat
U N I V E R S I T Y
S T A T E
O K L A H O M A
Improved Prediction of
Yield Potential
SuperPete to the Rescue
O K L A H O M A
25
538
680
797
910
988
1206
20
Yield, Mg/ha
S T A T E
U N I V E R S I T Y
All Equations
15
10
5
0
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
NDVI
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
550-650 (V5-V6)
20000
1.291x
y = 6766.8e
R2 = 0.36
Yield, Mg/ha
U N I V E R S I T Y
25000
15000
10000
5000
0
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
O K L A H O M A
S T A T E
NDVI
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
U N I V E R S I T Y
S T A T E
850-950 (V8 - V9)
25000
y = 2359.9e2.0459x
R2 = 0.43
Yield, Mg/ha
O K L A H O M A
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
NDVI
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
25000
Yield, Mg/ha
20000
y = 832.4e3.5488x
R2 = 0.83
15000
10000
5000
0
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
NDVI
0.9
> 1050 (V10 - V12)
18000
16000
14000
12000
Yield, Mg/ha
O K L A H O M A
S T A T E
U N I V E R S I T Y
950-1050 (V9-V10)
3.1401x
y = 684.44e
R2 = 0.54
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
NDVI
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
NDVI N Rich
0.71
Mg/ha
Sum GDD CoefA
CoefB
Pred. Yield
700
5.300654 1.175651 9.65438571
kg/ha
9654.386
CoefA
CoefA = 6E-08x3 - 0.0002x2 + 0.1122x - 18.731
CoefB
CoefB = -5E-08x3 + 0.0001x2 - 0.1183x + 31.78
YP0 = (CoefA * EXP (CoefB * NDVI))
x = cummulative GDD
E GDD
538
680
797
910
988
1206
Coef A
6.766
5.144
4.5975
2.3599
0.8324
0.6844
8
7
4
y = 0.000000101x 3 - 0.000267038x 2 + 0.218075180x 51.146352373
R2 = 0.97
6
3.5
3
Coef A
5
Coef A
O K L A H O M A
Coef B
1.291
1.2787
1.2442
2.0459
3.5488
3.1401
2.5
Coef B
4
2
3
1.5
2
1
y = -0.000000055x 3 + 0.000144228x 2 - 0.118267442x +
31.779941626
R2 = 0.88
0
500
1
0.5
0
700
900
Sum GDD
1100
Coef B
NDVI FP
0.51
S T A T E
U N I V E R S I T Y
Cubic
O K L A H O M A
S T A T E
2.5
2
y = -0.0003x + 0.0816x - 2.7337
R2 = 0.99
2000
y = 0.3231x2 - 77.8x + 5405.7
R2 = 0.99
1.5
"B"
1500
2
"A"
U N I V E R S I T Y
Yield Prediction Curve Coefficients, kg/ha
2500
1000
1
"A"
"B"
500
0.5
0
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
GDD
GDD
"A"
52
81
105
125
154
"B"
2232
1222
819
707
1094
0.594
1.544
2.018
2.09
1.584
140
160
0
180
YPN YPN YP0
YPMAX
Grain yield
U N I V E R S I T Y
S T A T E
O K L A H O M A
RI-NFOA
YPN=YP0 * RI
INSEY (NDVI/days from planting to sensing)
Nf = (YP0*RI) – YP0))/Ef
The mechanics of how N rates are computed are really very simple
1. Yield potential is predicted without N
2. The yield achievable with added N is #1 times the RI
3. Grain N uptake for #2 minus #1 = Predicted Additional N Need
4. Fertilizer Rate = #3/ efficiency factor (usually 0.5 to 0.7)
U N I V E R S I T Y
S T A T E
O K L A H O M A
INSEY works, but needs to be more
robust
 Problems:
 Extremely early season prediction of
yield can be overestimated
 (Feekes 4, wheat)
 (V6, corn)
 Inability to reliably predict yield
potential at early stages of growth
should be accompanied by more risk
averse prediction models (small
slope)
U N I V E R S I T Y
S T A T E
O K L A H O M A
Combined









RI = (NDVI-N Rich Strip/NDVI-Farmer Practice)
CoefA = (0.323123*Gdd2 - 77.8* Gdd + 5406)
CoefB = -0.0003469*Gdd2 + 0.08159*Gdd - 2.73372
YP0 = (CoefA * exp(CoefB * NDVI-FP))
If ((NDVI-N Rich Strip/NDVI-FP)< 1.72)
RI = (NDVI-N Rich Strip/NDVI-FP)*1.69 - 0.7
If (RI<1) RI=1
YPN = YP0*RI;
NRate = ((YPN-YP0)*0.0239/0.6)
O K L A H O M A
S T A T E
U N I V E R S I T Y
Variable Rate Technology
Treat Temporal and Spatial Variability
Returns are higher but require larger investment
U N I V E R S I T Y
S T A T E
O K L A H O M A
Just remember boys,
you can always trust
SuperPete!