Transcript Marktanalyse und Prognose des Umschlagbereichs

Institut für Seeverkehrswirtschaft und Logistik
Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics
www.isl.org
[email protected]
Estimating deepsea, shortsea
and transhipment volumes
A data model for container traffic
through the European North Range ports
Sönke Maatsch, ISL
Institut für Seeverkehrswirtschaft und Logistik
Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics
www.isl.org
[email protected]
Content
1. Data sources for seaborne and hinterland container traffic
2. Decomposing the North Range ports’ seaborne traffic – ISL STM
3. Determining the hinterland distribution
4. Linking foreign trade with transport data – Global Insight EITM
5. Results from latest study for the Hamburg Port Authority (HPA)
6. Future development of the model
18/07/2015
Estimating deepsea, shortsea, and transhipment volumes
2
Institut für Seeverkehrswirtschaft und Logistik
Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics
1. Data sources
A) Transport statistics
Survey
(B/Ls)
NR ports’
modal split
transport
statistics
(transport
Survey
statistics)
NR ports’
seaborne traffic
Survey
B) Trade statistics
Trade by origin/destination (e.g. UN, national statistics)
A
www.isl.org
[email protected]
18/07/2015
Estimating deepsea, shortsea, and transhipment volumes
B
3
Institut für Seeverkehrswirtschaft und Logistik
Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics
www.isl.org
[email protected]
2. Decomposing the North Range ports’ seaborne traffic
North Range ports’ seaborne traffic


extra-European container traffic (→ EITM)
intra-European container traffic
ISL Shortsea Shipping Survey:
 survey among the most important shortsea operators
 main question: transhipment shares for each relation
 aim: estimating shortsea-land and transhipment traffic per relation
(port-to-port or port-to-country level)
18/07/2015
Estimating deepsea, shortsea, and transhipment volumes
4
Institut für Seeverkehrswirtschaft und Logistik
Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics
2. Decomposing the North Range ports’ maritime traffic
Split of total traffic into shortsea-land and transhipment (NR ports 2005)
extra-European O/D
intra-European O/D
deepseatranshipment
shortsea
transhipment
shortsea-land
sea
transhipment:
shortsea-transh.:
10.5 mill TEU
0.1 mill TEU
port
deepsea-land:
shortsea-land:
15.8 mill TEU
4.7 mill TEU
land
total hinterland traffic: 20.5 mill TEU
?
www.isl.org
[email protected]
18.07.2015
Estimating deepsea, shortsea, and transhipment volumes
5
Institut für Seeverkehrswirtschaft und Logistik
Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics
www.isl.org
[email protected]
3. Determining the hinterland distribution
Modal split and hinterland distribution


Modal split statistics from the ports:

distribution of hinterland traffic by modes

for some ports: modal split by hinterland regions
Transport statistics:

distribution of hinterland traffic by regions for barge and rail

truck traffic: not available or only available for transport companies
registered in the respective country

Hinterland survey:

distribution of hinterland traffic by regions for truck

modal splits per region

expert interviews / plausibility checks
18/07/2015
Estimating deepsea, shortsea, and transhipment volumes
6
Institut für Seeverkehrswirtschaft und Logistik
Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics
3. Determining the hinterland distribution
Split of total traffic into shortsea-land and transhipment (NR ports 2005)
extra-European O/D
intra-European O/D
deepseatranshipment
shortsea
transhipment
shortsea-land
sea
transhipment:
shortsea-transh.:
10.5 mill TEU
0.1 mill TEU
port
deepsea-land:
shortsea-land:
15.8 mill TEU
4.7 mill TEU
land
total hinterland traffic: 20.5 mill TEU
?
www.isl.org
[email protected]
18/07/2015
Estimating deepsea, shortsea, and transhipment volumes
7
Institut für Seeverkehrswirtschaft und Logistik
Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics
www.isl.org
[email protected]
Content
1. Data sources for seaborne and hinterland container traffic
2. Decomposing the North Range ports’ maritime traffic – ISL STM
3. Determining the hinterland distribution
4. Linking foreign trade with transport data – Global Insight EITM
5. Results from latest study for the Hamburg Port Authority (HPA)
6. Future development of the model
18/07/2015
Estimating deepsea, shortsea, and transhipment volumes
8
Institut für Seeverkehrswirtschaft und Logistik
Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics
4. Linking trade and transport data
Linking trade and transport data

Major challenges:
a. from value to volume (tonnes)
b. from tonnes to laden containers
c. inclusion of empties
d. estimation of transport chains
e. first vs. final destination (distribution centres)

Tools used for the North European Container Traffic Model:

Global Insight World Trade Service (WTS) for a. and b.

Imbalance analyses for c.

Global Insight European Inland Transportation Model (EITM) and
ISL Shortsea Traffic Model (STM) for d.

www.isl.org
[email protected]
18/07/2015
Hinterland survey for d. and e.
Estimating deepsea, shortsea, and transhipment volumes
9
Institut für Seeverkehrswirtschaft und Logistik
Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics
4. Linking trade and transport data
Estimation of transport chains
e.g. imports from North East Asia to Poland from WTS: 150.000 laden TEU
2
40
Transhipment
1
150
70
Hamburg
0
Barge
30
Rotterdam
5
Rail
30
Bremen/Bhv.
25
Truck*
20
Antwerp
1
Split by ports based on their market share on the respective
relation and in hinterland regions
2
Split by mode based on preceding estimations for each port
* Including containers transported to DCs near Hamburg and then on to Poland.
www.isl.org
[email protected]
18/07/2015
Estimating deepsea, shortsea, and transhipment volumes
10
Institut für Seeverkehrswirtschaft und Logistik
Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics
www.isl.org
[email protected]
4. Linking trade and transport data
Imbalance analysis for empty containers


Basis for estimation:

difference between export and import TEUs per hinterland region

difference between export and import TEUs per maritime relation
Adjustments:

differences between port of discharge and port of loading of containers

equalisations between certain maritime trade routes

18/07/2015
Result: estimated transport chains for laden and empty containers
Estimating deepsea, shortsea, and transhipment volumes
11
Institut für Seeverkehrswirtschaft und Logistik
Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics
www.isl.org
[email protected]
4. Linking trade and transport data
Applications


Market analyses

market shares of ports in hinterland regions

identification of potential new markets for ports

modal split analyses
Improved port traffic forecasting

estimated transport chains allow differentiated forecasts

impact of specific economic scenarios on the structure of a port’s cargo
traffic can be directly calculated
Institut für Seeverkehrswirtschaft und Logistik
Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics
5. Latest study for the Hamburg Port Authority (HPA)
Structure of cargo traffic for each North Range port
... market share per segment
Source:
www.isl.org
[email protected]
18/07/2015
ISL/Global Insight, Containerverkehrsmodell zur Bestimmung der Marktposition des Hafens Hamburg in europäischen
Hinterland- und Transhipmentregionen, study for the Hamburg Port Authority, Bremen 2007
Estimating deepsea, shortsea, and transhipment volumes
13
Institut für Seeverkehrswirtschaft und Logistik
Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics
5. Latest study for the Hamburg Port Authority (HPA)
Market shares by hinterland regions and modal split (ex.: Hamburg)
Source:
www.isl.org
[email protected]
18/07/2015
ISL/Global Insight, Containerverkehrsmodell zur Bestimmung der Marktposition des Hafens Hamburg in europäischen
Hinterland- und Transhipmentregionen, study for the Hamburg Port Authority, Bremen 2007
Estimating deepsea, shortsea, and transhipment volumes
14
Institut für Seeverkehrswirtschaft und Logistik
Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics
www.isl.org
[email protected]
6. Planned developments

further projects for North Range ports to improve robustness

building time series

expansion of the scope to the whole continental Europe
(i.e. including Mediterranean)

large-scale survey among importing and exporting companies in
continental Europe

standardizing the interface to Global Insight’s World Trade Service,
thus permitting regularly updated port forecasts
18/07/2015
Estimating deepsea, shortsea, and transhipment volumes
15
Institut für Seeverkehrswirtschaft und Logistik
Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics
www.isl.org
[email protected]
Thank you for your attention!
Institut für Seeverkehrswirtschaft und Logistik
Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics
Sönke Maatsch
Economist
Maritime Economics and Transport Universitätsallee GW1 Block A
28359 Bremen
Germany
Fax +49/4 21/2 20 96-77
Tel. +49/4 21/2 20 96-73
[email protected]
18.07.2015
www.isl.org
Estimating deepsea, shortsea, and transhipment volumes
16