Transcript One Planet Too Many People

One Planet –
Too Many People
Global Change Management
Physical Fundamentals of
Global Change Processes
19. December 2006
Manja Kämper
Table of Content
• World Population
• People and Planet – Human Influence on
the Planet
• Human Impacts on the Planet
– Water (Aral Sea, Kazakhstan)
– Forests (Lappi, Finland)
World Population
„World Population is the number of people alive on the earth at any given
point in time.“
• 2000  6 000 million individuals
• 2006  6 555 million individuals
• 2015  7 200 million individuals
• 98% of population increase in less
developed regions of the world
• Africa will experience the most rapid
rate of growth
Source: UNEP
World Population
World Population density (person/ km²)
8.3
231
333
65
2.6
Source: WIKIPEDIA
Human Influences
The overall impact that humans have on the global environment is
proportional to the number of people on earth and the average influence
of each individual
Source: UNEP
Human Impacts on the Planet
• logging and land use conversion have reduced
forest cover by at least 20 %
• nearly 70 % of the world‘s major marine fish stock
are over fished or being fished at the biological limit
• an estimated 27 000 species disappear from the planet
each year
• soil degradation has affected 2/3 of the world‘s
agricultural land
• half of the world‘s wetlands were lost during
the last century
Earth’s Shrinking Biosphere
1900-2000 [Land Area hectare per capita]
• mass extinction caused by human
activities like transforming the
landscape, overexploiting species,
pollution
Source: UNEP
Human Impacts - Water Facts
• of total world water, 97.5% is salty water and only 2.5% is
freshwater of which useable freshwater accounts for about
0.5%
• of the 0.5% useable freshwater, irrigation accounts for 70%,
industry 20% and household 10%
• Demand for and use of freshwater has tripled over the past
half century, as world population has grown from 2.5 to 6.55
billion people
• experts predict that by 2025 global water needs will increase
with 40% more required for cities and 20% for growing crops
• over the next 20 years, average water supply per person is
estimated to drop by a third, endangering human health,
agriculture and the environment
Source: UNEP
Aral Sea, Kazakhstan
Aral Sea, Kazakhstan
Aral Sea, Kazakhstan
position:
countries:
area:
volume of water:
water level:
max. depth:
supplies:
discharge:
Salt concentration:
Asia
Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan
33.600 km²
appr. 117 km³
37 m over normally zero
34 m
Amu-Darja, Syr-Darja
is situated in a basin
78 g/l (1960 9g/l)
Aral Sea, Kazakhstan
Climate
temperature
January
June/ July
-13°C
26°C
precipitation
January
9 mm
June/ July
10 mm
Aral Sea, Kazakhstan
Discharge formation in the aral sea basin after states (km³)
basin
State
Syrdarja¹
km³
Kazakhstan
Amudarja²
%
km³
Aral Sea
%
km³
%
2,426
6,500
/
/
2,426
2,100
27,605
74,200
1,604
2,000
29,209
25,100
Tadschikistan
1,005
2,700
49,578
62,900
50,583
43,400
Turkmenistan
/
/
1,549
1,900
1,549
1,200
Uzbekistan
6,167
16,600
5,056
6,000
11,223
9,600
Afghanistan
and Iran
/
/
21,593
27,200
21,593
18,600
37,203
100,0
79,380
100,0
116,583
100,0
Kirgistan
Aral Sea
¹average 1951-1974
²average 1934-1992
Aral Sea, Kazakhstan
Use of the water resources in the aral sea basin 1980-1999 in Mio. m³
State
1980
Mio. m³
1990
%
Mio. m³
1999
%
Mio. m³
%
14200
11,8
11320
9,7
8235
7,8
4080
3,4
5155
4,4
3291
3,1
Tadschikistan
10750
8,9
9259
8,0
12521
11,9
Turkmenistan
23000
19,1
23338
20,1
18075
17,2
Uzbekistan
64910
53,8
63611
54,7
62833
59,9
116940
100,0
112683
100,0
104955
100,0
Kazakhstan
Kirgistan
Aral Sea
Aral Sea, Kazakhstan
Images show death of the
world’s fourth largest
inland sea
• 1973: The surface of the
sea once measured
66 100 km²
• 1987: 60% of the
volume had been lost
• 1999-2004: The sea is
now quarter of the size it
was 50 years ago
Source: UNEP
Aral Sea, Kazakhstan
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
withdrawal of the basic living conditions
high unemployment rate
insufficient supply with drinking water and food
contamination of drinking water and food
insufficient public health care und medical aid
very high illness rates (infectious disease and cancer)
appr. 70% of all mothers suffer anaemia
deformity of children
high infant mortality rate
Conflicts between the countries
Human Impacts - Forest Facts
1900
3.18
Earth’s shrinking forestland (ha per capita)
1900-2000
1950
1.85
1960
1.45
1970
1.17
1980
0.97
1990
2000
0.82
0.64
Source: UNEP
Forest Facts
• forests cover almost 1/3 of the earth's land surface;
• the global area of forest systems has been reduced by
1/2 over the past three centuries
• worldwide, the total forest area in 2005 is just under 4
billion hectares; the rate of deforestation is about 13
million hectares per year
• tropical forests are home to about 50% of all plant and
animal species on the planet
• approximately 1.5 billion tonnes of wood is harvested for
fuel annually worldwide
• forests are among the most notable storehouses of
biological diversity on the land – 2/3 of known terrestrial
species
Source: UNEP
Lappi, Finland
Lappi, Finland
area:
98 937 km² (94% land
area; 6% lakes & rivers)
population:
203 000 persons
population density: 2.2 person/km²
Homeland of
Northern Europe’s only
indigenous people, the Sámi
Lappi, Finland
Images show results
of logging in the
northeastern areas
of the country
The patches of tan in
the 2002 image signify
clearcut areas
Lappi, Finland
• Loss of biomass and biodiversity
• Loss as a sources of food, fuel,
construction material, fibers
• Loss of water and air filtration, carbon
sequestration, soil stabilization and
tourism
• Loss of a basic living condition for Sami
people
• Loss of tradition
Sources
UNEP-Atlas
Malmström, Vincent H.: Lappland: Nothern
Europe‘s Strategic Problem Area
Greenpeace: Lappland: State of a conflict,
March 2005
www.unu.edu/unupress/unubooks/uu18ce/u
u18ce00.htm
Thank you for your
attention and
a merry christmas!
Comments for Manja Kämper
from Manfred Stock
1.
To be finished .....