Managing sustainability transitions

The Dutch Energy transition

René Kemp

Presentation at SDRN meeting London, 22 Sept, 2004 MERIT & DRIFT

Contents

    NMP4: the need for sustainability transitions What is transition management Transition management in practice. The example of sustainable energy policy Conclusions

Why do we need transitions?

 NMP4: persistent environmental problems (climate change, biodiversity, depletion of resources, threats to human health)  require

system change

or

transitions

alternative systems of energy supply, towards transport, resource use, agriculture  existing policy is not enough (

transitions require changes in policy

)

What is a transition?

 Transition is a process in which something changes from one state to another (Collins Dictionary). 

Societal transitions

are transformation processes resulting in a new type of coherence (system logic) that constitutes the basis for further development

A transition is the result of many changes and not a deterministic process (source: Butter et al., 2002)

Transition phases

Magnitude of societal change

Stabilisation Breakthrough Predevelopment Take off

Time

Rotmans, Kemp, van Asselt (2001)

Transition management

…. is a deliberate effort to work towards a transition in a

stepwise, adaptive manner, utilising dynamics and visions

… is a model for governance in which different visions and routes are explored:

Transition Management : instead of myopic bifocal

Political margins for change Existing policy process: short-term goals (myopic) Societal goals State of development of solutions Transition management: oriented towards long term sustainability goals and visions, iterative and reflexive (bifocal) Sustainability visions

Mathematically transition management = current policies + long-term vision + vertical and horizontal coordination of policies + portfolio-management + process management.

... is bottom-up and top-down , using strategic experiments and “frame condition” policies … is a model for governance, relying on “self organisation”

 Sustainable energy economy: – economically efficient (‘profit’) – reliable (‘people’) – minimal negative environmental and social impacts (‘planet’)  Long term goals, combined with  Concrete short term steps  …and successes...

Areas of interest in the Energy transition

Biomass New Gas

Policy Renewal

Eff. Energy Chains Sustainable Rijnmond

2050 Visionary: Global Images More abstract Transition Paths 2020 2008 Present Transition Paths Research Efficiency Strategic Vision: Concrete Biomass New Gas Go - No Go Experiments Research Experiments Experiments More concrete

2050 2020

The biomass transition

Biomass 20-40% of primary energy supply ‘Vision’ ‘Strategic goals’ 10-15% in power prod.

A. Gasification 15-20% in traffic B. Pyrolysis C. Biofuels ‘Transition Paths’ 2003

: experiments

2 à 3 %

: R&D

Conclusion

Transition management is not a “megalomaniac” attempt to control the future But an attempt at goal-oriented modulation, relying on variation and selection (through markets and public choice) It is a model for governance in which system innovations are explored, in a stepwise manner

“Policies for science and technology must always be a mixture of realism and idealism” Chris Freeman (1991)

What’s new about transition management?

1. The orientation to transition goals (

less short-termism)

2. The orientation to learning and innovation (

helps to overcome the preference for quick results, and policy reliance on technical fixes

) 3. Alignment of different policy domains (

helps to deal with fragmented policies

) 4. Programmes for system innovation based on visions of sustainability 5. Opening up of policy process (

less domination by vested interests

)

Ways in which transition management address the 5 key problems of SD policy



Dissent

: agreeing on key performance parameters for functional systems 

Distributed control

: visions, long-term goals and programmes for system innovation 

Short-term steps

: strategic experiments and steps towards changing frame conditions 

Danger of lock-in

to suboptimal solutions: portfolios and adaptive policies 

Political myopia

: transition agendas, arenas, forgoing technical fixes

Questions

To what extent is the UK involved in transition management? Will the UK be more successful in reducing CO2 than NL but less successful in creating new energy business?