Transcript No Slide Title

Disputation Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät
Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel, 4. Februar 2003
Coastal Vulnerability, Resilience and Adaptation
to Climate Change — An Interdisciplinary Perspective
RICHARD J.T. KLEIN
Coastal Vulnerability, Resilience and Adaptation to Climate Change —
An Interdisciplinary Perspective
OUTLINE
• Climatic and non-climatic pressures on coastal zones.
• Early approaches to assessing coastal vulnerability.
• The importance of adaptation and adaptive capacity.
• A new assessment framework.
• Lessons learnt and to be learnt.
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Coastal Vulnerability, Resilience and Adaptation to Climate Change —
An Interdisciplinary Perspective
Coastal pressures
In the beginning
Adaptive capacity
A new framework
Lessons learnt
POPULATION GROWTH AND URBANISATION
• 37% of the world’s population lives within 100 km from
the coastline.
• In many places, population growth in coastal zones is
double that of national average population growth.
• 23 cities are expected to have more than 10 million
inhabitants by 2015; 18 of these are coastal.
• With the exception of Tokyo, New York, Los Angeles and
Osaka, all coastal megacities are in developing countries.
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Coastal Vulnerability, Resilience and Adaptation to Climate Change —
An Interdisciplinary Perspective
Coastal pressures
In the beginning
Adaptive capacity
A new framework
Lessons learnt
4
Coastal Vulnerability, Resilience and Adaptation to Climate Change —
An Interdisciplinary Perspective
Coastal pressures
In the beginning
Adaptive capacity
A new framework
Lessons learnt
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND COMPETING DEMANDS
• Natural coastal systems provide many goods and services
that support a range of socio-economic activities.
• Important activities include tourism and recreation,
fisheries and aquaculture, mining, industry, transportation
and infrastructure development.
• Overexploitation of one particular good or service can
inhibit the provision of goods or services that are valued
less financially or which enable the system to selfregulate.
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Coastal Vulnerability, Resilience and Adaptation to Climate Change —
An Interdisciplinary Perspective
Coastal pressures
In the beginning
Adaptive capacity
A new framework
Lessons learnt
CLIMATE CHANGE AND ACCELERATED SEA-LEVEL RISE
• Global mean sea level is expected to rise by 9 to 88 cm by
2100, with a central value of 48 cm. This is 2.2 to 4.4
times the rate of rise observed over the 20th century.
• Sea-level rise will show regional variations, with some
areas experiencing no rise and others facing a rise of more
than twice the average.
• On a local scale, land subsidence will add to climate
change-induced sea-level rise.
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Coastal Vulnerability, Resilience and Adaptation to Climate Change —
An Interdisciplinary Perspective
Coastal pressures
In the beginning
Adaptive capacity
A new framework
Lessons learnt
POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF SEA-LEVEL RISE
Biogeophysical effect
Sector
Flood
frequency
Erosion
Water resources
Inundation
Rising
Saltwater
water tables intrusion
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Agriculture
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Human health
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Fisheries
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Tourism
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Human settlements
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Biological
effects
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Coastal Vulnerability, Resilience and Adaptation to Climate Change —
An Interdisciplinary Perspective
Coastal pressures
In the beginning
Adaptive capacity
A new framework
Lessons learnt
INTEGRATED COASTAL ZONE MANAGEMENT
• Traditional approaches to coastal management have
tended to focus on single issues.
• In view of the increasing potential for resource-use
conflicts, a policy process is needed to strike a balance
between sectoral interests, both in the short and the long
term.
• Integrated coastal zone management can be such a
process, although its implementation is constrained by a
lack of operational clarity and guidance.
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Coastal Vulnerability, Resilience and Adaptation to Climate Change —
An Interdisciplinary Perspective
Coastal pressures
In the beginning
Adaptive capacity
A new framework
Lessons learnt
COASTAL VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT
• Usually based on the IPCC Common Methodology (1992).
• Sea-level rise as only climate variable.
• Limited number of impact indicators (people affected,
people at risk, wetland loss, dry land loss, infrastructure
loss, protection costs).
• Lack of data often constrained meaningful assessment.
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Coastal Vulnerability, Resilience and Adaptation to Climate Change —
An Interdisciplinary Perspective
Coastal pressures
In the beginning
Adaptive capacity
A new framework
Lessons learnt
ASSESSING PEOPLE AT RISK
Global sea-level rise scenarios
Vertical land movements
Relative sea-level rise scenarios
Storm surge flood curves
Raised flood levels
Coastal topography
Size of flood hazard zone
Population density
Number of people exposed
Protection status
Average annual number of people flooded
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Coastal Vulnerability, Resilience and Adaptation to Climate Change —
An Interdisciplinary Perspective
Coastal pressures
In the beginning
Adaptive capacity
A new framework
Lessons learnt
VALUE OF THESE ASSESSMENTS
• Raised awareness of the potential impacts of climate
change and thus contributed to the international climate
policy process.
• Limited usefulness for coastal planning and management,
mainly because of a mismatch between the spatial and
temporal scales of the assessment and the scales at which
coastal planners and managers operate.
• Other problems: lack of data, study team composition,
institutional fragmentation, lack of adaptation guidance.
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Coastal Vulnerability, Resilience and Adaptation to Climate Change —
An Interdisciplinary Perspective
Coastal pressures
In the beginning
Adaptive capacity
A new framework
Lessons learnt
LIMITED INITIAL FOCUS ON ADAPTATION
• Preventionists emphasise the need for mitigation and
fear that increased adaptation efforts will lead to
diminished mitigation efforts.
• Adaptationists stress natural and human ability to adapt
to many different climates and trust technological
progress.
• IPCC Second Assessment Report (1996): “Discernable
human influence on global climate”, emergence of a third
school of thought: Realists.
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Coastal Vulnerability, Resilience and Adaptation to Climate Change —
An Interdisciplinary Perspective
Coastal pressures
In the beginning
Adaptive capacity
A new framework
Lessons learnt
REALISTS
• Acknowledge that climate change is a fact but that impacts
are still uncertain.
• Realise that planning and implementation of adaptation
measures will take time.
• Stress that a process must be set in motion to consider
adaptation as a realistic option, along with mitigation.
• Are aware that adaptation must be integrated with other
social and environmental policies.
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Coastal Vulnerability, Resilience and Adaptation to Climate Change —
An Interdisciplinary Perspective
Coastal pressures
In the beginning
Adaptive capacity
A new framework
Lessons learnt
OBJECTIVES OF THIS PHD RESEARCH
• To contribute to improved assessments of coastal
vulnerability to climate change by developing a stronger
conceptual and methodological basis for understanding the
process of adaptation.
• In so doing, to ensure greater policy relevance of
vulnerability assessments, as well as to improve the
academic rigour and validity of the assessments.
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Coastal Vulnerability, Resilience and Adaptation to Climate Change —
An Interdisciplinary Perspective
Coastal pressures
In the beginning
Adaptive capacity
A new framework
Lessons learnt
RESEARCH APPROACH
• No single, well-defined PhD project but a combination of
studies commissioned and funded by different clients.
• Common theme is the description and analysis of elements
that determine how coastal systems and communities
would and could respond to climate change and, in
particular, how this response may be assessed as part of
coastal vulnerability assessments.
• Starting point: UNEP Handbook on Methods for Climate
Change Impact Assessment and Adaptation Strategies.
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Coastal Vulnerability, Resilience and Adaptation to Climate Change —
An Interdisciplinary Perspective
Coastal pressures
In the beginning
Adaptive capacity
A new framework
Lessons learnt
SIX PEER-REVIEWED AND PUBLISHED PAPERS
•
•
•
Klein and Nicholls, 1999: Assessment of coastal vulnerability to climate change.
•
•
Smit et al., 2000: An anatomy of adaptation to climate change and variability.
•
Klein et al., 2001: Technological options for adaptation to climate change in
coastal zones.
Klein et al., 1998: Resilience and vulnerability: coastal dynamics or Dutch dikes?
Klein and Bateman, 1998: The recreational value of Cley Marshes Nature
Reserve: an argument against managed retreat?
Klein et al., 1999: Coastal adaptation to climate change: can the IPCC Technical
Guidelines be applied?
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Coastal Vulnerability, Resilience and Adaptation to Climate Change —
An Interdisciplinary Perspective
Coastal pressures
In the beginning
Adaptive capacity
A new framework
Lessons learnt
WHAT IS VULNERABILITY?
• IPCC CZMS, 1992: The degree of incapability to cope with the
consequences of climate change and sea-level rise.
• IPCC SAR, 1996: The extent to which climate change may damage
or harm a system; it depends not only on a system’s sensitivity, but
also on its ability to adapt to new climatic conditions.
• IPCC TAR, 2001: The degree to which a system is susceptible to, or
unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change [...].
Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of
climate variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and
its adaptive capacity.
17
Coastal Vulnerability, Resilience and Adaptation to Climate Change —
An Interdisciplinary Perspective
Coastal pressures
In the beginning
Adaptive capacity
A new framework
Lessons learnt
WHAT IS VULNERABILITY?
• IPCC CZMS, 1992: The degree of incapability to cope with the
consequences of climate change and sea-level rise.
• IPCC SAR, 1996: The extent to which climate change may damage
or harm a system; it depends not only on a system’s sensitivity, but
also on its ability to adapt to new climatic conditions.
• IPCC TAR, 2001: The degree to which a system is susceptible to, or
unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change [...].
Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of
climate variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and
its adaptive capacity.
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Coastal Vulnerability, Resilience and Adaptation to Climate Change —
An Interdisciplinary Perspective
Coastal pressures
In the beginning
Adaptive capacity
A new framework
Lessons learnt
SIMPLE RULES OF THUMB FOR ADAPTATION
• Dumb engineer: Inefficient
adaptation, adaptation costs not
justified by damage cost reduction.
• Clairvoyant farmer: Economically
optimal adaptation, minimises
expected damages.
damage costs
• Dumb farmer: No adaptation,
no reduction in damage costs.
adaptation costs
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Coastal Vulnerability, Resilience and Adaptation to Climate Change —
An Interdisciplinary Perspective
Coastal pressures
In the beginning
Adaptive capacity
A new framework
Lessons learnt
WHAT IS ADAPTATION?
• IPCC SAR, 1996: Not defined.
• IPCC TAR, 2001: Any adjustment in natural or human
systems in response to actual or expected impacts of
climate change, aimed at moderating harm or exploiting
beneficial opportunities.
• Three generic strategies to adapt to flood risk in coastal
zones: protect, accommodate and (managed) retreat.
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Coastal Vulnerability, Resilience and Adaptation to Climate Change —
An Interdisciplinary Perspective
Coastal pressures
In the beginning
Adaptive capacity
A new framework
Lessons learnt
FORMS OF ADAPTATION
• Increasing robustness of infrastructural designs and longterm investments.
• Increasing flexibility of vulnerable managed systems.
• Enhancing adaptability of vulnerable natural systems.
• Reversing trends that increase vulnerability
(“maladaptation”).
• Improving societal awareness and preparedness.
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SUSCEPTIBILITY
AUTONOMOUS
ADAPTATION
RESILIENCE /
RESISTANCE
PLANNED
ADAPTATION
NATURAL
VULNERABILITY
OTHER
CLIMATIC AND
NON-CLIMATIC
STRESSES
BIOGEOPHYSICAL
EFFECTS
NATURAL SYSTEM
ACCELERATED
SEA-LEVEL
RISE
IMPACT
POTENTIAL
ABILITY TO
PREVENT OR COPE
AUTONOMOUS
ADAPTATION
PLANNED
ADAPTATION
SOCIO-ECONOMIC
VULNERABILITY
RESIDUAL
IMPACTS
SOCIO-ECONOMIC SYSTEM
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Coastal Vulnerability, Resilience and Adaptation to Climate Change —
An Interdisciplinary Perspective
Coastal pressures
In the beginning
Adaptive capacity
A new framework
Lessons learnt
IS RESILIENCE AN IMPORTANT CONCEPT?
• Resilience has developed from a straightforward concept in
mechanics to a desirable attribute of linked human and
ecological systems.
• Resilience now refers to the ability to absorb stress
without changing, to self-organise and to learn to adapt.
• Limited scope for measurement, testing and formalisation.
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Coastal Vulnerability, Resilience and Adaptation to Climate Change —
An Interdisciplinary Perspective
Coastal pressures
In the beginning
Adaptive capacity
A new framework
Lessons learnt
RESILIENCE OF THE DUTCH COAST (1)
• Morphological, ecological and socio-economic resilience.
• Resilience cannot be used in the traditional context of
single perturbations and equilibrium states because the
coast is an evolving system.
• The coast has been managed for centuries with the aim of
reducing shoreline movement, which has increasingly
created a state of disequilibrium as long-term changes
have occurred.
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Coastal Vulnerability, Resilience and Adaptation to Climate Change —
An Interdisciplinary Perspective
Coastal pressures
In the beginning
Adaptive capacity
A new framework
Lessons learnt
RESILIENCE OF THE DUTCH COAST (2)
• A resilient coast can respond dynamically to environmental
changes, whilst continuing to perform all its actual and
potential functions, such as flood protection, recreation
and nature conservation.
• To make this definition operational requires a tool to
evaluate trade-offs between morphological, ecological and
socio-economic resilience and the functions they facilitate.
• More importantly, insights need to be developed as to how
coastal resilience can best be enhanced.
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Coastal Vulnerability, Resilience and Adaptation to Climate Change —
An Interdisciplinary Perspective
Coastal pressures
In the beginning
Adaptive capacity
A new framework
Lessons learnt
MANAGED RETREAT IN NORTH NORFOLK, UK
• Managed retreat is seen as a strategy that enhances
coastal (ecological) resilience.
• Along the North Norfolk coast, cost-benefit analysis has
shown that continued protection of the low-grade
agricultural land is not economically viable.
• However, the recreational value of an important bird
reserve in a freshwater marsh near Cley was not
considered in this cost-benefit analysis.
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Coastal Vulnerability, Resilience and Adaptation to Climate Change —
An Interdisciplinary Perspective
Coastal pressures
In the beginning
Adaptive capacity
A new framework
Lessons learnt
27
Coastal Vulnerability, Resilience and Adaptation to Climate Change —
An Interdisciplinary Perspective
Coastal pressures
In the beginning
Adaptive capacity
A new framework
Lessons learnt
QUANTIFYING THE RESERVE’S RECREATIONAL VALUE
• Visitors’ revealed and stated preferences were elicited and
used to assess the annual value of recreation in the
reserve in monetary terms.
• The recreational value was found to be considerably higher
than the present maintenance costs of the shingle bank
that protects the reserve.
• Therefore, would continued protection be justifiable?
• What does this say about coastal resilience?
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Coastal Vulnerability, Resilience and Adaptation to Climate Change —
An Interdisciplinary Perspective
Coastal pressures
In the beginning
Adaptive capacity
A new framework
Lessons learnt
THE BROADER CONTEXT
• Following a breach in 1996, the maintenance cost of the
shingle bank increased by at least a factor of six.
• There are doubts that the shingle bank can provide
sustainable protection in the medium to long term.
• It is unclear what would be the potential environmental
impacts of any coastal defence option for the reserve on
the adjacent North Norfolk coast.
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Coastal Vulnerability, Resilience and Adaptation to Climate Change —
An Interdisciplinary Perspective
Coastal pressures
In the beginning
Adaptive capacity
A new framework
Lessons learnt
FROM ADAPTATION TO ADAPTIVE CAPACITY
• Implicit in most vulnerability studies to date is the
assumption that there are no constraints on implementing
the adaptation options identified and analysed.
• Information on the extent to which mechanisms are in
place and technologies, expertise and other resources are
available is likely to give a more reliable picture of
vulnerability to climate change.
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Coastal Vulnerability, Resilience and Adaptation to Climate Change —
An Interdisciplinary Perspective
Coastal pressures
In the beginning
Adaptive capacity
A new framework
Lessons learnt
LEARNING FROM COPING WITH CLIMATE VARIABILITY
• Weather-related hazards are due to natural climate
variability. This climate variability will be affected by
climate change, leading to increased hazard potential.
• Weather-related hazards and climate change are clearly
related and so are the possible adaptation measures to
these phenomena.
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Coastal Vulnerability, Resilience and Adaptation to Climate Change —
An Interdisciplinary Perspective
Coastal pressures
In the beginning
Adaptive capacity
A new framework
Lessons learnt
32
Coastal Vulnerability, Resilience and Adaptation to Climate Change —
An Interdisciplinary Perspective
Coastal pressures
In the beginning
Adaptive capacity
Value of +X*
climatic X
pc
attribute
or effect -X*
A new framework
Lessons learnt
Xcc
Time
Xpc
Xcc
+X*
-X*
Mean value of the climatic attribute X at the start of the time series.
Mean value of the climatic attribute X at the end of the time series.
Upper critical value of X for the system of interest.
Lower critical value of X for the system of interest.
Trend in mean value of X.
Coping range or zone of minimal hazard potential for system of interest.
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Coastal Vulnerability, Resilience and Adaptation to Climate Change —
An Interdisciplinary Perspective
Coastal pressures
In the beginning
Adaptive capacity
A new framework
Lessons learnt
THE PROCESS OF ADAPTATION
• Case studies of changes in coastal management in The
Netherlands, the United Kingdom and Japan in response to
increasing awareness of vulnerability to current climate
variability and future climate change.
• Coastal adaptation has been recognised as a multi-stage
and iterative process.
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Coastal Vulnerability, Resilience and Adaptation to Climate Change —
An Interdisciplinary Perspective
Coastal pressures
In the beginning
Climate
variability
Impacts
Adaptive capacity
A new framework
Lessons learnt
Mitigation
Climate
change
Information,
Awareness
Planning,Response
ImplemenDesign
tation
Monitoring,
Evaluation
Existing
management
practices
Other
stresses
Policy
criteria
Development
objectives
Adaptation
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Coastal Vulnerability, Resilience and Adaptation to Climate Change —
An Interdisciplinary Perspective
Coastal pressures
In the beginning
Adaptive capacity
A new framework
Lessons learnt
ADAPTIVE CAPACITY
• The ability to plan, prepare for and implement adaptation
measures.
• Factors that determine adaptive capacity of human
systems include economic wealth, technology and
infrastructure, information, knowledge and skills,
institutions, equity and social capital.
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Coastal Vulnerability, Resilience and Adaptation to Climate Change —
An Interdisciplinary Perspective
Coastal pressures
In the beginning
Adaptive capacity
A new framework
Lessons learnt
A NEW GENERATION OF VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT
• First generation: characterised by model and scenariobased analyses of potential impacts, limited consideration
of adaptation.
• Second generation: includes assessment of adaptive
capacity, links climate change with climate variability,
involves stakeholders.
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Coastal Vulnerability, Resilience and Adaptation to Climate Change —
An Interdisciplinary Perspective
Coastal pressures
In the beginning
Adaptive capacity
A new framework
Lessons learnt
THE IMPORTANCE OF STAKEHOLDERS
• Analysis of a stakeholder’s ability to cope with impacts
associated with today’s natural climate variability can
provide useful empirical information on their capacity to
adapt to climate change.
• It can also be the basis of a prioritisation of adaptation
options to reduce vulnerability to both today’s and
tomorrow’s climate.
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Coastal Vulnerability, Resilience and Adaptation to Climate Change —
An Interdisciplinary Perspective
Coastal pressures
In the beginning
Adaptive capacity
A new framework
Lessons learnt
SECOND-GENERATION VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT
• Advantages: increased policy relevance, results relate directly
to stakeholders’ activities and opportunities.
• Disadvantages: greater reliance on expert judgement,
qualitative results hamper mutual comparison, no clear
methodology available yet.
• AIACC: develops scientific and technical capacity by
stakeholder-based vulnerability assessments.
• APF: methodological elaboration of second-generation
assessment framework.
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Coastal Vulnerability, Resilience and Adaptation to Climate Change —
An Interdisciplinary Perspective
Emissions
Mitigative
capacity
Concentrations
Climate
change
Implementation
Mitigation
Facilitation
Climate
variability
Non-climatic factors
Exposure
Sensitivity
Adaptive
capacity
Implementation
Adaptation
Facilitation
Impacts
Vulnerability
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Coastal Vulnerability, Resilience and Adaptation to Climate Change —
An Interdisciplinary Perspective
Coastal pressures
In the beginning
Adaptive capacity
A new framework
Lessons learnt
MAIN FINDINGS (1)
• The traditional approach to assessing vulnerability has
limited utility for coastal management on a local scale.
• Also on a national scale, vulnerability assessments have
failed to provide the expected impetus in integrated
coastal zone management.
• Meanwhile, the vulnerability of coastal communities to
climate variability and change continues to increase, even
though technologies to reduce this vulnerability are
available.
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Coastal Vulnerability, Resilience and Adaptation to Climate Change —
An Interdisciplinary Perspective
Coastal pressures
In the beginning
Adaptive capacity
A new framework
Lessons learnt
MAIN FINDINGS (2)
• Place-based analysis and rigorous conceptual development
are the foundation for a second generation of vulnerability
assessment, which focuses on adaptive capacity.
• A methodology for second-generation vulnerability
assessment is currently being developed and tested.
• Further research is needed to understand adaptive
capacity and the process of adaptation.
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Coastal Vulnerability, Resilience and Adaptation to Climate Change —
An Interdisciplinary Perspective
Coastal pressures
In the beginning
Adaptive capacity
A new framework
Lessons learnt
FURTHER RESEARCH ON ADAPTIVE CAPACITY
• Empirical research on coping with climate variability can
provide information on today’s adaptive capacity.
• Representing adaptive capacity by proxy indicators can
enable the projection of future adaptive capacity, using
models and scenarios.
• Agent-based modelling can be used to better understand
the process of developing and using adaptive capacity.
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Coastal Vulnerability, Resilience and Adaptation to Climate Change —
An Interdisciplinary Perspective
Coastal pressures
In the beginning
Adaptive capacity
A new framework
Lessons learnt
ADAPTATION LINKAGES BEYOND CLIMATE CHANGE
• Natural resource management (e.g., IUCN).
• Natural disaster reduction (e.g., IFRC).
• Sustainable development (e.g., OECD, World Bank).
• Adaptation is being “mainstreamed” into existing plans
and policies: new interdisciplinary research is required to
facilitate and analyse this process.
• In coastal zones, the interest in mainstreaming may be a
new impetus for integrated coastal zone management.
44