Transcript Advancing Security in an Interconnedted World

AGENT-BASED MODELLING AND SIMULATION
IN THE IRRIGATION MANAGEMENT SECTOR
APPLICATIONS AND POTENTIAL
Fani A. Tzima
Ioannis N. Athanasiadis
Pericles A. Mitkas
Intelligent Systems and Software Engineering Laboratory
Informatics and Telematics Institute
Centre for Research and Technology-Hellas
Electrical and Computer Eng. Dept.
Aristotle University of Thessaloniki
Thessaloniki, GREECE
Common-pool resources management
Models for the management of common-pool
resources :
physical models
agro-economic models
combinatorial models
Agent-Based Modelling and Simulation
(ABMS)
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Fani A. Tzima
Bari, February 15, 2007
The essence of agency
There is considerable debate about the notion of an
agent and the characteristics of “agenthood”…
Agents draw on and integrate diverse disciplines
objects and distributed object architectures, adaptive learning
systems, artificial intelligence, expert systems, genetic
algorithms, distributed processing, distributed algorithms,
collaborative online social environments
Sundsted 1998
An autonomous agent is a system situated within and
part of an environment, that senses that environment
and acts on it, over time, in pursuit of its own agenda
and so as to effect what it senses in the future
Franklin 1996
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Bari, February 15, 2007
Positioning agents in the software
development process
Agent technology is the next step in objectoriented programming.
It satisfies all the requirements, while it supports
major key properties, since agents are:
autonomous
goal-oriented (reactive and/or pro-active)
cooperative
communicative (social)
adaptive…
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Bari, February 15, 2007
An abstract system architecture
for environmental applications
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Methodology
Review of agent-based models used in
the irrigation management sector
in terms of their objectives, modelling
approach and assessment
Classification schemes, according to
Scale (geographic and representation)
Stakeholder involvement
Modelling requirements
Insights on ABM potential and constraints
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Bari, February 15, 2007
ABMS tools for irrigation
management
SHADOC is a MAS seeking to examine the viability of, currently
underutilized, irrigated systems in the Senegal River Valley.
Barreteau and Bousquet, 2000
SINUSE addresses the problem of integrated management of the Kairouan
water table, located in Tunisia.
Feuillette et al., 2003
CATCHSCAPE is an agent-based model for the management of Mae Uam,
a small catchment in Northern Thailand.
Becu et al., 2003
AWARE is a simulation tool that models the dynamics of catchment level
water management in South Africa.
Farolfi and Hassan, 2003
MANGA is a tool aiming to assist decision-makers in the difficult task of
collective management of water resources.
Bars et al., 2005
The “Bali” model simulates the irrigation system of the Oos-Petanu
watershed in Bali.
Lansing and Kremer, 1993
The “lake” model specifically focuses on the management of lake
eutrophication and explores the lake dynamics in relation to the behaviour
of agents using phosphorus for agricultural purposes in the area.
Janssen (2001)
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Bari, February 15, 2007
Geographic scale
Irrigation
Scheme
Catchment
Watershed
“Lake”
model
SINUSE
AWARE
SHADOC
CATCHSCAPE
“Bali” model
Target Geographic Area
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Fani A. Tzima
Bari, February 15, 2007
Representation scale (1/2)
Actors modeled
Credit Manager (group agent)
Pumping Station Manager
(group agent)
Watercourse Manager (group
agent)
Farmers
30 ≤ Nfarmer agents ≤ 100
7 ≤ Ngroup agents ≤ 11
SINUSE
Farmers
120 farmer agents
CATCHSCAPE
Farmers
Canal Managers
327 farmer agents
6 manager agents
“Lake” model
Farmers
“Bali” model
Subaks (farmers’ associations) 172 subak agents
SHADOC
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Number of agents
used in simulations
Fani A. Tzima
Bari, February 15, 2007
Representation scale (2/2)
Actors modeled
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Number of agents used in
simulations
AWARE
Catchment Management Agency
(CMA)
Large-scale commercial irrigation
agriculture
Smallholder irrigation farming
Livestock producers
Forestry farms
Mining
Industry
Urban households
Rural households
1 CMA
200 large-scale commercial
irrigation farms
6000 smallholder irrigation
farmers
20 livestock producers
30 forestry farms
20 Mines/quarries
30 industries
5 Urban Communities
20 Rural Communities
MANGA
Farmers
Water supplier
100 farmer agents
1 water supplier agent
1 information supplier agent
Fani A. Tzima
Bari, February 15, 2007
Contrasting geographical
and representation scale
Most ABMS tools:
consider farmers at the scale of the individual (with
the exception of the “Bali” model)
involve a single managing authority for water
allocation (only SHADOC defines a hierarchy of
managers)
No direct analogy between the size of the
geographic area targeted and the number of
agents used in experiments.
Models aggregating water users into groups,
usually instantiate one agent per group.
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Bari, February 15, 2007
Stakeholder participation
Model Development
Modeling Phase
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Validation phase
SHADOC
Field Survey
Role Playing Game
SINUSE
Field Survey
Sensitivity analysis
CATCHSCAPE
Existing Survey
Comparison of results with
statistical data
AWARE
Iterative process involving
stakeholders
Iterative process involving
stakeholders
MANGA
Theoretical modeling
(no specific test case)
Dialog methods
“Bali” model
Anthropologic study
Field survey
Comparison of results with
statistical data
Fani A. Tzima
Bari, February 15, 2007
Modelling Requirements
Coupling the social and environmental models
Coupling the social and economic models
Social interaction
Adaptation of decision-making and behaviour
Decision-making scale
Modelling at the scale of the human individual
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Fani A. Tzima
Bari, February 15, 2007
Classification according to
modelling requirements
Adaptation
of decisionmaking and
behavior
Green : Spatially non-explicit
Red : Spatially explicit
: Economically explicit
: Economically implicit
1 : SHADOC
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Multiple
Strategies
2 : SINUSE
3 : CATCHSCAPE
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4 : AWARE
Fine tuning
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1
5 : MANGA
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6 : “Bali” Model
7 : “Lake” Model
No
Adaptation
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No Social
Interaction
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Global Social
Interaction
Local Social
Interaction
Fani A. Tzima
Social
Interaction
Bari, February 15, 2007
ABMS tools potential and constraints
ABMS models jointly represent physical, economic
and social system dynamics
ABMS tools are not predictive but exploration tools
their results have to be interpreted according to their
robustness and stability in a large number of runs and
across a wide range of parameter values
understanding of model constraints and assumptions is
crucial
Participatory methods can have an invaluable effect
on stakeholders’ understanding
communicating with the modellers, using the simulation tool
and exploring its parameters, methods and constraints
developing a shared problem perception
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Fani A. Tzima
Bari, February 15, 2007
ABMS tools validation
conceptual validation: examining the plausibility of model
assumptions
statistical validation: comparing simulation results with
real world data
Problem
Neither technique can be applied to social processes:
there are no analytic models for them
real world data from relevant surveys are rare
Solution
Participatory techniques
collaboration with stakeholders reveals a wealth of
data on their social behaviour and the nature of their
interactions
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Fani A. Tzima
Bari, February 15, 2007
Epilogue-Recommendations
ABMS in integrated assessment tools and
water management DSSs:
have great potential in representing
dynamic processes, and specifically
social ones
bridge insights and concepts from
several disciplines in an actor based
analysis and modelling perspective
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Fani A. Tzima
Bari, February 15, 2007
Open Issues
ABMS has still not reached maturity, with
open issues concerning:
the representation of social processes
dimensions of validation of the developed
models
linking modelling and participation of
stakeholders
exploring wider application domains
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Fani A. Tzima
Bari, February 15, 2007
Thank you for your attention!
Fani A. Tzima
[email protected]
Intelligent Systems and Software Engineering Laboratory
Informatics and Telematics Institute
Centre for Research and Technology-Hellas
Electrical and Computer Eng. Dept.
Aristotle University of Thessaloniki
Thessaloniki, GREECE
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Fani A. Tzima
Bari, February 15, 2007