Transcript Slide 1

Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and
Thailand from Impact of Climate Change
Suppakorn Chinvanno
SEA START RC
Chulalongkorn University
Thailand
Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and
Thailand from Impact of Climate Change
Outline:
• Background
• Objective & Scope of study
• Study sites
• Method
• Finding (preliminary)
• Impact of climate change on rice production
• Rain-fed farmer vulnerability analysis
Remarks:
• Surveyed data still need to be validated and verified
• Analysis on Thailand survey is only partially analyzed
• Adaptation options is to be further evaluated
Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and
Thailand from Impact of Climate Change
Background
• Part of AIACC AS07 Regional Study: Southeast Asia Regional
Vulnerability to Changing Water Resource and Extreme Hydrological
Events due to Climate Change
• Joint research effort by
•
•
•
•
•
Suppakorn Chinvanno1
Boontium Lersupavithnapa2
Somkith Boulidam3
Thavone Inthavong4
Chitnucha Budhaboon5
1 Southeast
Asia START Regional Center, Chulalongkorn University, Thailand
of Agriculture, Ubonratchathani University, Ubon Ratchathani, Thailand
3 Faculty of Social Science, National University of Laos, Vientiane, Lao PDR
4 National Agriculture and Forestry Research Institute, Lao PDR
5 Rice Research Center, Thailand
2 Faculty
Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and
Thailand from Impact of Climate Change
Objectives: Pilot study to identify & characterize vulnerability & adaptation
to climate change impact of rain-fed farmer and build regional capacity &
network of researchers
Scope:
Climate Variability
Climate Change Scenario
Changes in yield of rice
production
Changes in yield of rice
production scenarios
Vulnerability
Adaptation
Vulnerability
new
expand
Coping capacity
Sustainable livelihood
•
•
•
no
sufficient
yes
•
•
Who will vulnerable?
How?
How did they response
to the past climate
variability?
Can this cope with
future change?
If not, what to do about
future?
Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and
Thailand from Impact of Climate Change
Study Sites:
Thailand: Ubonratchathani Province, covering 18
villages in 2 districts and devided into:
• Zone 1: Upland – local rice, mostly for own consumption
• Zone 2: Lowland along river – flood risk area – commercial rice
• Zone 3: Upland – commercial rice – rainfed only
• Zone 4: Intensive commercial rice – rainfed only
• Zone 5: Partly upland rice – convert from local rice to
commercial rice – rainfed only – high risk in rainfall distribution
Lao PDR: Savannakhet Province, covering 4 villages
in Songkhone District
Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and
Thailand from Impact of Climate Change
Finding: Preliminary result
• Survey data still need to be validated and verified
• Analysis on Thailand survey is only partially analyzed
• Adaptation options is to be further evaluated
Potential climate impact on rain-fed agriculture:
Climate impact on rain-fed rice production
Y ie ld ( t / h a )
Savannakhet Province, Lao PDR
8000
S im u lated R ic e Y ield u n d er D ifferen t
C lim ate S c en ario s in S av an n ak h et
P ro v in c e, L ao P D R
6000
Min
Max
4000
Ave
2000
0
1xCO2 (1980-1984)
1.5xCO2 (2040-2044)
2xCO2 (2066-2070)
C lim a t e S c e n a r io s
Simulated yield is done using 5 years climate condition under
each CO2 scenarios and average the results
Potential climate impact on rain-fed agriculture:
Climate impact on rain-fed rice production
Savannakhet Province, Lao PDR
Simulated rice yield (ton/ha)
Climate scenario
Min
Max
Ave
% change from
baseline year
1xCO2
919.6
5974.6
2497.4
1.5xCO2
866.2
5470.0
2355.0
-5.7%
1021.8
5877.4
2493.3
-0.2%
2xCO2
Potential climate impact on rain-fed agriculture:
Climate impact on rain-fed rice production
Simulated rice yields under different climate scenarios in 3 regions in Thailand
Selected climate scenarios: by annual rainfall
Dry Year
Yield
SD
kg ha
Median Year
% change
from
baseline
year
-1
Northern Thailand:
1.0CO2
2685
537
Chiang Rai Province
1.5CO2
2834
480
2.0CO2
2553
875
North Eastern
Thailand:
1.0CO2
2544
557
Sakonnakorn
Province
1.5CO2
2644
887
2.0CO2
2615
1137
Central Thailand:
1.0CO2
2421
732
Sakaeo Province
1.5CO2
2657
623
2.0CO2
2527
823
Yield
SD
kg ha
% change
from
baseline
year
-1
2340
399
5.55%
2678
480
-4.92%
3402
1104
2459
591
3.93%
2257
617
2.79%
2771
1400
2481
743
9.75%
2633
671
4.38%
2878
796
Wet Year
Yield
SD
kg ha
% change
from
baseline
year
-1
2781
638
14.44%
2700
574
-2.91%
45.38%
3248
975
16.79%
2635
1083
-8.21%
2355
842
-10.63%
12.69%
2812
1384
6.72%
2456
720
6.13%
2360
681
-3.91%
16.00%
2516
803
2.44%
Potential climate impact on rain-fed agriculture:
Climate impact on rain-fed rice production
Averaged simulated rice yields of each decade under three climate
scenarios: Sakonnakorn Province, North-eastern Thailand
Simulated rice yield under climate scenareio at Sakonnakorn province
kg ha
4000
-1
Impact of climate change on average rice yield
at Sakonnakorn province
-1
kg ha
Ave
Max
I = S t a n d a rd
d e v ia t io n
Min
3000
2000
3000
2500
2000
y = - 3 3 4 .9 8 x + 2 8 6 3
R 2 = 0 .8 0 6 2
1500
1000
1000
500
0
1980-89
1.0XCO2
2040-49
2066-75
1.5XCO2
2.0XCO2
0
1.0XCO2
1.5XCO2
2.0XCO2
Assessment on Vulnerability and Adaptation to
Climate Impact: Stakeholders engagement
Engaging Local Community: Target social group – Rain-fed farmer
community
Conduct on-farm interview & focus group discussion with local farmer
communities
•Thailand: North-eastern region - Ubonratchathani province (covering 600
households in 18 villages in Det-udom and Najaluay Districts)
•Lao PDR: Central region - Savannakhet province (covering 160 households
in 4 villages in Songkhone district)
Engaging Policy Maker: Series of meeting & workshop
Assessment on Vulnerability and Adaptation to
Climate Impact : Identifying vulnerable group
Defining rain-fed farmer with risk to climate impact –
potential vulnerable group:
Multi-criteria analysis
Household Economic Condition
1. Good / sustained
2. Bad / not sustained
Coping
Capacity
Farmer
community
3. High
4. Low
5. High
6. Low
Livelihood dependency on rice
production
Potential Vulnerable Group
2+4+5
2+3+5
2+4+6
Potential Non-Vulnerable Group
1+3+6
1+4+5
1+3+5
1+4+6
2+3+6
Assessment on Vulnerability and Adaptation to
Climate Impact : Indices to evaulate climate risk –
Lao PDR
No
Criteria / Indicator
Description
Value
Weight
Range
Criteria I: Household economic condition
1
Sufficient household
productivity
Total annual household
productivity value / Total annual
household consumption value
>= 1.5 = 1
<1.5 -1= 2
<1 = 3
2
2-6
2
Surplus household
productivity
Percentage of annual household
surplus productivity value / Total
household consumption
>= 50% = 1
<50-20%= 2
<20% = 3
2
2-6
3
Self-sufficient rice
consumption
Total annual rice production / Total
annual rice consumption
>= 1 = 1
<1 = 2
1
1-2
4
Land ownership
Own or rent farm land for farming
Yes = 1
No = 2
1
1-2
5
Sufficient productivity from
non climate sensitive source
to guarantee food security
(Total livestock + Off-farm
revenue) / Total food consumption
>= 1= 1
<1-0.5 = 2
<0.5 = 3
1
1-3
Criteria II: Rice production dependency
6
Household sustained
livelihood without rice
production
Total other productivity value /
Total household consumption *100
>70 % = 1
<70–50%= 2
<50% =3
3
3-9
7
Level of food security from
nature production
Total value of food from natural
source / Total food consumption
*100
>70 % = 1
<70–50%= 2
<50% = 3
3
3-9
Assessment on Vulnerability and Adaptation to
Climate Impact : Indices to evaulate climate risk –
Lao PDR
No
Criteria / Indicator
Description
Value
Weight
Range
Criteria III: Coping capacity
8
Capacity of saving to support
household livelihood
Total household saving (cash +
rice in the store + livestock) /
Total household consumption
*100
>30 % = 1
<30-10% = 2
<10% = 3
2
2-6
9
External financial support
mechanism
Accessible to external loan to
support climate impact
Adequate = 1
Partial= 2
None or barely = 3
1
1-3
10
Capacity to maintain
livelihood with total lost rice
production
(Total household saving +
Alternate & extra income +
cash convertible product e,g,
livestock) / (Household
consumption 5 months + total
cost of rice production)
>=1 = 1
<1 – 0.5= 2
<0.5 = 3
2
2-6
11
Capacity of natural product to
maintain food security
Total nature product / Total
food consumption *100
>=70 % = 1
<70-30 %= 2
< 30% = 3
1
1-3
Total possible Range Scoring = 19 – 55
• Low climate risk group = 19 – 31
• Moderate climate risk group = >31 – 43
• High climate risk group = >43 – 55
Assessment on Vulnerability and Adaptation to
Climate Impact: Climate risk to rain-fed farmer
Climate risk group – Lao PDR when rice production reduced by 15%
Potential Vulnerable Group - Lao PDR
Current Situation
With Climate Impact Stress
Criteria / Score
Range
Low
Moderate
High
Low
Moderate
High
Total Vulnerability Score
19 - 55
19 - 31
>31 - 43
>43 - 55
19 - 31
>31 - 43
>43 - 55
26.4
37.2
46.9
26.5
36.5
47.0
Average Score
Household Economic Condition
7 - 19
9.1
13.5
17.0
9.3
13.7
17.6
Livelihood Dependency on Rice
6 - 18
7.0
10.1
14.4
7.0
9.5
14.1
Coping Capacity
6 - 18
10.4
13.6
15.5
10.2
13.2
15.3
162
105
45
10
98
49
13
Number of Households
Household vulnerable to climate impact = 45 households (28% of total survey)
Climate risk farmer with Climate Stress - Lao PDR
Climate risk farmer - Current condition
Lao PDR
High Risk
10
Moderate Risk
6%
45
28%
Low Risk
Low Risk
105
66%
Moderate Risk
High Risk
Moderate Risk
49
31%
High Risk
13
8%
Low Risk
Moderate Risk
Low Risk
98
61%
High Risk
Assessment on Vulnerability and Adaptation to
Climate Impact: Climate risk to rain-fed farmer
Climate risk group – Lao PDR when rice production reduced by 30%
Potential Vulnerable Group - Lao PDR
Current Situation
With Climate Impact Stress
Criteria / Score
Range
Low
Moderate
High
Low
Moderate
High
Total Vulnerability Score
19 - 55
19 - 31
>31 - 43
>43 - 55
19 - 31
>31 - 43
>43 - 55
26.4
37.2
46.9
26.6
35.9
47.1
Average Score
Household Economic Condition
7 - 19
9.1
13.5
17.0
9.7
14.1
17.9
Livelihood Dependency on Rice
6 - 18
7.0
10.1
14.4
6.9
9.0
13.6
Coping Capacity
6 - 18
10.4
13.6
15.5
10.0
12.8
15.5
162
105
45
10
84
61
15
Number of Households
Household vulnerable to climate impact = 97 households (60% of total survey)
Climate risk farmer with Climate Stress - Lao PDR
Climate risk farmer - Current condition
Lao PDR
High Risk
15
9%
High Risk
10
Moderate Risk
6%
45
28%
Low Risk
Low Risk
105
66%
Moderate Risk
High Risk
Moderate Risk
61
38%
Low Risk
Low Risk
84
53%
Moderate Risk
High Risk
Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and
Thailand from Impact of Climate Change
Characteristic of vulnerable group to impact of climate change – Lao PDR
(97 households or 60% of total survey)
Comparison of socio-economic condition: Vulnerable VS Non-vulnerable groups
Without
climate stress
Average from total households in each group
Total
surveyed
population
With climate stress - lost of
rice production by 30%
NonVulnerable
Vulnerable
Comparison
Vulnerable to
Non-vulnerable
group
Economic condition:
Annual total productivity (per capita)
$284
$296
$236
-20.27%
Annual consumption (per capita)
$145
$150
$142
-5.33%
$81
$61
$54
-11.48%
Percentage of HH annual rice production to total productivity
31.12%
21.91%
26.27%
19.90%
Percentage of annual HH on-farm production to total
productivity
64.16%
59.96%
61.22%
2.10%
Percentage of HH annual off-farm production to total
productivity
35.84%
40.04%
38.78%
-3.15%
HH cash saving (per capita)
$39
$49
$39
-20.41%
HH other saving (includes cash convertible livestock) per capita
$75
$113
$75
-33.63%
HH farm size per capita
0.47
0.47
0.46
-2.13%
HH rice productivity per land unit (ton/ha)
1.66
1.7
1.63
-4.12%
$36
$45
$30
-33.33%
Annual total rice production (value - per capita)
Farming system structure:
HH cost production
Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and
Thailand from Impact of Climate Change
Adaptation direction for rain-fed farmer – Lao PDR
Increase total productivity by increasing rice production by improving
farming / crop management method and to increase buffer in coping
capacity, probably through increasing livestock and / or off-farm
income.
Some adaptation options taken to cope with past climate variability:
#1 – Seek for off-farm products e.g. products from natural source
#2 – Implement alternate crop
#3 – Increase buffer in coping capacity, e.g. community based
rice bank, livestock
Assessment on Vulnerability and Adaptation to
Climate Impact : Indices to evaluate climate risk –
Thailand
No
Criteria / Indicator
Description
Value
Weight
Range
Criteria I: Household economic condition
1
Sufficient household income
Total household income / Total
household expenditure
>= 1.5 = 1
<1.5 -1= 2
<1 = 3
1
1-3
2
Surplus household income
Percentage of Total household
income - Total household
expenditure) / Total household
expenditure
=> 10% = 1,
>10% to <-10%
= 2, =<-10% =
3
0.5
0.5 – 1.5
3
Self-sustained rice
consumption
Total annual rice production /
Total annual rice consumption
>= 1 = 1
<1 = 2
1
1-2
4
Land ownership
Own or rent farm land for
farming
Yes = 1
No = 2
0.5
0.5 - 1
5
Gross Profit & Loss from rice
producing
Percentage of (Total value of rice
production - Total cost of
production) / Total cost of
production
>= 150% = 1,
<150 to >100%
= 2, =<100% =
3
0.5
0.5 - 1.5
6
Net Profit & Loss from rice
producing
(Total value of rice production Cost of production) / (Total cost
of production + Household fixed
expenses 4 months)
> 100% = 1,
100 to >50% =
2, =<50-0% =
3, =<0% = 4
0.5
0.5 - 2
Assessment on Vulnerability and Adaptation to
Climate Impact : Indices to evaluate climate risk –
Thailand
No
Criteria / Indicator
Description
Value
Weight
Range
Criteria II: Rice production dependency
7
Household sustains livelihood
without rice production
Total extra income / Total fixed
expenses
>=1 = 1, <1 to
>0.5 = 2, =<0.5
=3
2
2-6
8
Level of livelihood dependency
on rice production
Percentage of (Total household
expenditure - Extra
income)/Total expenditure
<40% = 1, 4070% = 2, >70%
=3
2
2-6
Assessment on Vulnerability and Adaptation to
Climate Impact : Indices to evaluate climate risk –
Thailand
No
Criteria / Indicator
Description
Value
Weight
Range
Criteria III: Coping capacity
9
Capacity of alternate source of
income to support household
livelihood
Total alternate income / (Total
cost of rice production + Fixed
household expenditure 4 month)
>=1 = 1, <1 = 2
1
1-2
10
External financial support
mechanism
Accessible to external loan to
support climate impact
Adequate = 1
Partial= 2
None or barely = 3
1
1-3
11
Capacity of saving to support
household livelihood
(Cash saving + Total value of
livestock) / (Total cost of rice
production + Fixed household
expenditure for one crop
season: 4 month)
>=1 = 1, <1 = 2
1
1-2
12
Capacity to maintain livelihood
with total lost rice production
(Cash saving + Extra income +
Cash convertible livestock +
Loan allowance) / (Total
household expenditure + Total
cost of rice production)
>1.5 = 1, 1.5 to >1
= 2, 1 to > 0.5 = 3,
=<0.5 = 4
1
1-4
Total possible Range Scoring = 12 – 34
• Low climate risk group = 12 – 19
● Moderate climate risk group = >19 – 26
● High climate risk group = >26 – 34
Assessment on Vulnerability and Adaptation to
Climate Impact: Climate risk to rain-fed farmer
Climate risk group – Thailand when rice production reduced by 15%
Zone 1: Upland – local rice, mostly
for own consumption
Potential Vulnerable Group – Thailand
Current Situation
With Climate Impact Stress
Criteria / Score
Range
Low
Moderate
High
Low
Moderate
High
Total Vulnerability Score
12 - 34
12 - 19
>19 - 26
>26 - 34
12 - 19
>19 - 26
>26 - 34
15
23.2
28.6
15.1
22.7
28.7
Average Score
Household Economic Condition
4 - 11
6.3
6.6
8.9
6.3
6.7
9.1
Livelihood Dependency on Rice
4 - 12
4.5
10.5
12.0
4.3
10.1
12.0
Coping Capacity
4 - 11
4.4
6.1
7.7
4.5
5.9
7.5
98
34
29
35
32
27
39
Number of Households
Household vulnerable to climate impact = 28 households (28.6%)
Climate risk farmer - Current Situation
Zone 1 - Thailand
Low Risk
34
35%
High Risk
35
35%
Low Risk
Moderate Risk
Moderate Risk
29
30%
High Risk
Climate risk farmer - with climate stress
Rice production reduced 15%
Zone 1 - Thailand
High Risk
39
39%
Low Risk
32
33%
Low Risk
Moderate Risk
Moderate Risk
27
28%
High Risk
Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and
Thailand from Impact of Climate Change
Characteristic of vulnerable group to impact of climate change
(28 households in Zone 1 Thailand)
Comparison of socio-economic condition
Zone 1: Upland – local rice, mostly for
own consumption
Average from total households in each group
Without
climate
stress
Total
surveyed
population
With climate stress - lost of
rice production by 15%
NonVulnerable
Vulnerable
Comparison
Vulnerable to
Non-vulnerable
group
Economic condition:
HH income per capita
$252
$241
$203
-15.77%
Income from rice per capita
$142
$119
$125
5.04%
Income from rice to Total income (%)
70.49
65.77
75.83
15.30%
Extra income to Total income (%)
29.51
34.33
24.17
-29.60%
$164
$156
$185
18.59%
$19
$11
$38
245.45%
Total Cash convertible livestock per capita
$230
$252
$176
-30.16%
Debt per capita
$190
$207
$148
-28.50%
6.42
6.42
6.41
-0.16%
Farm size per capita (Ha)
1.0
1.2
0.85
-29.17%
Rice productivity per Ha (ton/ha)
1.2
1.1
1.4
27.27%
188
140
165
17.86%
Total expenditure per capita
Cash saving per capita
Weighted interest rate (%)
Farming system structure:
Gross profit from rice production per Ha (%)
Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and
Thailand from Impact of Climate Change
Adaptation direction for rain-fed farmer – Zone 1, Thailand
Increase income per capita by increasing extra income, perhaps to be
higher than non-vulnerable group in order to cope with higher
expenditure and to increase buffer in coping capacity, probably
through increasing cash convertible livestock.
Some adaptation options taken to cope with past climate variability:
#1 – Seek for off-farm income – laboring in the city
#2 – Increasing buffer in coping capacity – number of livestock
#3 – Alternate crop
Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and
Thailand from Impact of Climate Change
Climate risk group & their characteristics to be analyzed in the
same method for the farmer in other zones
●
•
•
•
•
Zone 1: Upland – local rice, mostly for own consumption
Zone 2: Lowland along river – flood risk area – commercial rice
Zone 3: Upland – commercial rice – rainfed only
Zone 4: Intensive commercial rice – rainfed only
Zone 5: Partly upland rice – convert from local rice to commercial rice –
rainfed only – high risk in rainfall distribution
Concerned issue: Research gap
Vulnerability profile not explained & multi-dimension aspect, e.g. multiple climate
stress, temporal aspect of the climate impact – time of occurrence, consecutive
year of extreme event, dynamic of society, etc. not yet systematically covered.
Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and
Thailand from Impact of Climate Change
Summary:
Climate change shows strong tendency to have impact on rain-fed rice
agriculture system, particularly the increasing in magnitude and frequency
of extreme climate variability.
Rain-fed farmer’s livelihood would be affected from the damage or
reduction in rice production due to climate impact.
Engaging local stakeholders to get better understanding on current
adaptation strategies & evaluate whether they would be sufficient to cope
with future climate impact or not.
Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and
Thailand from Impact of Climate Change
Project wrap-up plan: Planning adaptation strategy & evaluation
Some concerned issues – site specific / limitation / feasibility
• The threshold of natural system condition to sufficiently support community in
compensating the lost in rice production of farmer in Lao PDR
Also degradation of the natural system as well as change in population to the
threshold that such system may be overly exploited.
• Economic condition in the city in Thailand to support excess labor from
upcountry, who try to seek for extra income to support their livelihood when
income from rice production is not sufficient.
Innovative new adaptation strategies to cope with the future
vulnerability to climate change impact need to be developed
Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and
Thailand from Impact of Climate Change
Thank You