TMRCA calculations

Kathleen Kerwin, MSPA candidate in the Predictive Analytics Department of the School Professional Studies at Northwestern University 2015

TMRCA methodology

The TMRCA methodology being used in my research is based on the work of Dr. Anatole Klyosov Anatole is a former Harvard Professor of Biochemistry and founder/Chief Scientist of Galectin Therapeutics INC. publically traded on the NASDAQ Exchange.

How to review the TMRCA Calculations

This presentation provides:  A high level overview of the purpose of the TMRCA  How to run the TMRCA calculation series  Gives an example of the L270 SNP sub branch

A high level overview

 A series of calculations  Linear formula  ybd  margin or error  TMRCA calculation itself  confidence level which checks the TMRCA itself

TMRCA worksheet

Note the yDNA member data in phylogenetic tree order

Panel 12

The panel 12 calculation box, Note: The Ahaplotype row with the common rows in green The mutations from the Ahaplotype row in grey Both the Ahaplotype row and mutation count are automaticaly updated in the calculation box below.

Panel 12 Calculation box

 A series of calculations  Linear formula  ybd  margin or error  TMRCA calculation itself  confidence level which checks the TMRCA itself

Calculation box details

 A series of calculations  Linear formula  ybd  margin or error  TMRCA calculation itself  confidence level which checks the TMRCA itself

L270 example

Note:  Linear formula  ybd  margin or error  TMRCA calculation itself  confidence level which checks the TMRCA itself

67 marker Analysis

Useful vs meaningful – The final analysis may include an 80% confidence level, if yes the TMRCA is meaningful and the dataset represents the population of the SNP as it occurred in nature. If less than 80%, the TMRCA is still useful but more data needs to be added to attain a sample that mirrors the population of the SNP.

Linking yDNA and history

50% of L270 members have Sullivan surname with a dominant ancestral presence in Counties Kerry and Cork Sullivan surname definition and origin = Eoganacht descendant of O’Sullivan, senior Eoganacht line, Cork and Kerry. Eponym Suildubon lived approx. 950 AD TMRCA 1153 – 1379 AD of L270 with 86% confidence level Suildubon approx. 950 AD

Summary – forensic yDNA analysis

The goal of forensic yDNA analysis using Data and Predictive Analytic methodology is to link yDNA tested results with human behavior to ancestral origins and historical events.

The research doesn’t have to be right all the time and the conclusions don’t have to be definitive. The evidence brought together in incremental efforts has to be defensible. In the L270 analysis, Anatole’s TMRCA series of calculations and Dr. Paul MacCotter’s research data have already proven links from member yDNA and human behavior in the form of ancestral origins and historical events, as well as a to the Eoganacht Clan eponym Suildubon.

Using the same methodologies and specifically Anatole’s TMRCA methodology, other research efforts can prove similar relationships.