Transcript Stockport - New Economy

Local Economic Assessment (LEA)
Wigan
January 2011
The LEA: What’s New?
— The LEA endorses and reinforces key findings of the
MIER … but nearly 2-years on, the LEA also tells us
about:
• The current & forecast future impact of the recession
• The composition & risk profile of the public sector
across GM
• The spatial dimensions of growth down to local level
LEA Timetable
• GM LEA incl. Local Authority chapters:
• Presentation based on draft final reports
• Final version early 2011 – taking into account feedback
• Additional Studies:
• Advanced Manufacturing – Feb
• Manchester Airport – Feb
• Worklessness (Uni. of Oxford analysis of DWP data) –
May/June
GM Summary
— Strong growth in GM over the last decade (GVA and
employment), coincided with:
• Structural change – shift to services
• GM South main driver of growth
• Inequalities of growth across the conurbation
0
4.5
9
GM Employment Growth 2003–08
0
5
10
miles
Middlebrook
Manchester
City Centre
Traf f ord
Park
Change in employment 2003-2008 in
Financial and Professional Services
1,000 to 8479
(9)
500 to 1,000 (15)
250 to 500 (20)
0 to 250 (891)
-250 to
0 (638)
-500 to -250 (20)
-1000 to -500
(5)
-5,905 to -1,000 (2)
Flixton
© Crown Copy right.
All rights reserv ed.
Licence No 100019918 2010
GM Employment Growth 2003–08
Impact of the recession
• GM forecast to suffer less than UK
• But, given growth uneven across GM, impact of the
recession and forecast recovery is also uneven
• Wigan not forecast to return to pre-recession peak
employment (2006) until 2028
Impact of the Recession
• Wigan suffered more than GM average in employment
terms
RECESSION
115
BENCHMARKED EMPLOYMENT (2000=100)
110
105
Key
Employment peak/
Return to peak
100
Employment decline
Employment growth
95
90
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
WIGAN
GM
Challenges and Key Priorities for GM
• Early years
• Housing
• Quality of life
• Skills
• Transport
A key issue for Wigan is its relatively poor
connectivity with the rest of GM
• Map shows public transport travel times to central Manchester
Wigan: Travel-to-Work
Travel to work flows for Wigan 2008
PRESTON
 1,962 from Wigan
 to Wigan (under 1%)
SOUTH RIBBLE
 1,298 from Wigan
 to Wigan (under 1%)
CHORLEY
 2,331 from Wigan
 1,500 to Wigan
MANCHESTER
WEST
LANCASHIRE
 5,441 from Wigan
 1,800 to Wigan
ST HELENS
BOLTON
 9,229 from Wigan
 2,800 to Wigan
WIGAN
 47K residents commute out
(41% of working residents)
 22K commute in (21% of
working population)
 Net flow = - 25K
 3,910 from Wigan
 3,500 to Wigan
 9,868 from Wigan
 to Wigan (under 1%)
SALFORD
 3,924 from Wigan
 1,300 to Wigan
WARRINGTON
LIVERPOOL
Source: ONS
N.B. Only flows of 1% or more are shown.
Figures have been rounded.
Yellow box; net exporter of labour to Wigan.
Brown box; net importer of labour from
Wigan.
 1,694 from Wigan
 1,200 to Wigan
 4,123 from Wigan
 to Wigan (under 1%)
TRAFFORD
 2,925 from Wigan
 to Wigan (under 1%)
Business Base
PUBLIC ADMIN:
4.1%
LOGISTICS:
4.5%
HOSPITALITY &
TOURISM:
5.9%
EDUCATION:
6.5%
CONSTRUCTION:
9.2%
KEY (1998–2008)
(Source: ABI)
High Growth Growth
Decline
High Decline
FINANCIAL &
PROFESSIONAL
SERVICES: 9.7%
HEALTH: 13.0%
MANUFACTURING: 13.9%
RETAIL: 13.5%
FOOD & DRINK: 4.8%
ENGINEERING: 4.1%
LIFE SCIENCES: 0.7%
Public and Private Sector employment growth
9.0%
8.0%
7.8%
% EMPLOYMENT GROWTH
7.0%
6.0%
5.5%
4.9%
5.0%
4.0%
3.7%
3.0%
2.4%
2.0%
0.8%
1.0%
0.0%
WIGAN
GM
PUBLIC
GB
PRIVATE
Public Sector employment levels across GM –
workplace and residents
40.0
GB RESIDENT
AVERAGE
30.0
GB WORKPLACE AVERAGE
25.0
20.0
15.0
BU
RY
ER
M
AN
CH
ES
T
O
RD
SA
LF
HA
M
O
LD
E
ID
M
ES
TA
BO
LT
O
N
AL
E
CH
D
RO
W
IG
AN
O
RT
CO
KP
ST
FO
RD
10.0
TR
AF
PERCENTAGE EMPLOYMENT
35.0
WORKPLACE BASED
2008
RESIDENCE BASED
2010
GB AVERAGE WORKPLACE
GB AVERAGE RESIDENT
Public Sector by type in Wigan – where
above GB average
3.50
800
3.00
2.50
1,700
2.00
4,500
1.50
2,700
1.00
0.50
GB average =1
0.00
General secondary education
Adult and other education not
elsewhere classified
Compulsory social security
activities
Social work activities without
accommodation
High-growth businesses across GM
2.42%
2.02%
2.02%
1.99%
2.00%
1.90%
GM AVERAGE 1.82%
1.67%
1.63%
NW AVERAGE 1.73%
1.48%
1.50%
1.28%
1.26%
1.00%
0.50%
TO
C
K
U
R
Y
P
S
M
E
TA
B
O
R
T
ID
E
M
H
A
O
LD
O
LT
O
N
N
W
IG
A
B
S
AL
F
O
R
D
O
R
D
FF
TR
A
C
H
D
R
O
S
A
N
C
H
ES
TE
R
AL
E
0.00%
M
HIGH-GROWTH AS PERCENTAGE OF BUSINESS BASE
2.50%
People - highest skill levels are below the GM
and UK averages
100%
90%
22.6
26.7
29.8
80%
70%
17.0
15.8
15.4
60%
50%
17.6
16.4
16.0
40%
15.7
14.2
13.4
30%
20%
10%
11.9
12.6
15.1
14.4
12.6
WIGAN
GM
UK
12.8
0%
NO QUALIFICATIONS
OTHER QUALIFICATIONS
NVQ 1
NVQ 2
NVQ 3
NVQ 4+
People & Place – large areas of ‘hard-pressed’
with small pockets of affluence
Standish
Aspell New
Springs Whelley
Astley
Moss
Lowton East
Although deprivation is a serious issue the
borough is less polarised than some others
100%
1.9%
10.9%
3.0%
2.8%
3.5%
7.6%
8.9%
13.3%
7.6%
90%
4.5%
12.8%
14.8%
28.9%
18.8%
16.0%
80%
29.0%
20.5%
13.2%
22.4%
22.5%
13.3%
23.4%
70%
16.0%
16.7%
20.0%
29.2%
60%
21.6%
24.6%
26.7%
24.2%
50%
16.7%
17.7%
27.0%
23.0%
40%
20.0%
17.4%
66.8%
30%
21.7%
46.5%
20%
42.2%
40.3%
39.4%
17.9%
18.1%
34.0%
10%
32.0%
18.3%
11.6%
10.9%
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q5
W
IG
AN
D
FO
R
TR
AF
TA
M
ES
I
DE
T
CK
P
ST
O
R
O
C
SA
LF
HD
O
R
O
R
D
AL
E
HA
M
ES
T
CH
M
AN
O
LD
ER
Y
BU
R
BO
LT
O
N
0%
Areas in the most deprived 5% tend to be
concentrated in the centre
Index of Multiple Deprivation
in Wigan's LSOAs in 2007
Douglas
Wigan
Abram
Leigh West
Pemberton
Atherton
RANK OF IMD 2007
Within least deprived 5%
Within least deprived 80-95%
Within least deprived 50-80%
Within most deprived 20-50%
Within most deprived 5-20%
Within most deprived 5%
© Crown Copyright. All rights reserved.
License number 100019918. 2010
Impact of the Recession – increasing part time
work
125.0
BENCHMARKED EMPLOYMENT (2005 = 100)
120.0
WIGAN PT
115.0
GREATER MANCHESTER PT
110.0
105.0
100.0
GREATER MANCHESTER FT
95.0
WIGAN FT
90.0
85.0
2005
WIGAN FT
2006
WIGAN PT
2007
GREATER MANCHESTER FT
2008
GREATER MANCHESTER PT
2009
Public sector cuts … but employment forecasts
are more favourable than many GM boroughs
New Economy scenario 2010 to 2015 shows a net increase
PUBLIC SECTOR
PRIVATE SECTOR
LOSS
PRIVATE SECTOR GAIN
TOTAL
NUMBER
PERCENT
NUMBER
PERCENT
NUMBER
PERCENT
NUMBER
PERCENT
BOLTON
-2,600
-8.8
-3,200
-4.4
4,900
6.7
-900
-0.9
BURY
-1,400
-6.2
-1,700
-4.5
2,600
6.8
-500
-0.8
MANCHESTER
-5,100
-5.4
-6,200
-3
28,800
14.3
17,500
5.9
OLDHAM
-1,500
-6.6
-1,800
-3.5
2,800
5.5
-500
-0.7
ROCHDALE
-1,700
-8.8
-2,100
-4.2
3,500
7
-300
-2.6
SALFORD
-2,500
-7.1
-3,100
-4
8,600
11.1
3,000
2.7
STOCKPORT
-2,600
-8.3
-3,200
-3.5
7,800
8.6
2,000
1.7
TAMESIDE
-1,500
-7.7
-1,800
-3.9
1,800
3.9
-1,500
-2.5
TRAFFORD
-1,200
-5.6
-1,500
-1.6
10,800
11.6
8,100
7
WIGAN
-1,700
-6.7
-2,100
-3
4,800
7
1,000
1.1
GM
-21,900
-6.8
76,600
9.7
28,500
2.6
28,500
2.6
Source: ODBR, GMFM, New Economy analysis. Note: may not sum due to rounding
Strengths
• Good outward connectivity – West Coast Mainline / M6
• Key employment sites, including Westwood Park and
“Wigan South Central”
• Recently strengthened Town Centre offer, to provide a
competitive retail offer within a wide catchment area
• Competitive areas of private sector business base e.g.
Food & Drink (Heinz and Pataks), Sport and Hospitality
& Tourism
• Less inequality than many other GM districts
Weaknesses
• Poor internal transport (large / dispersed district) and
connectivity to rest of GM
• Too reliant on Manufacturing and Construction, despite
having strengths in these sectors
• Highest skills too low – benefit claimant levels too high =
significant productivity gap
• The impact of recession has been worse than GM as a
whole (as a result of skills deficit and high concentration
of Manufacturing and Construction)
Opportunities
• Better exploit transport links / improve connectivity
within Wigan and with rest of GM
• Improving the image of Wigan (leveraging the wider
‘Manchester’ brand)
• Environmental Technology sector – Wigan's is one of
the fastest growing in GM (+166% employment growth
between 1998 and 2008)
• Potential to exploit quality of life offer, including
attractive housing markets and access to high quality
green spaces
Threats
• Forecast to be long recovery from recession.
Manufacturing will not be source of employment growth,
even if output rises
• Potential for increased inequalities in growth between
Wigan and GM, when growth returns, unless better
connectivity to opportunities (transport and skills)
• OMEGA provides a potential threat for certain jobs in
Wigan, although also opportunities for Wigan residents
potentially
• Reduced ‘framework funds’ from the EU?
The GM LEA including the Wigan chapter are available at:
www.neweconomymanchester.com
Dr Alexander Roy
Head of Economic Analysis
[email protected]
Building Economic Resilience across Greater
Manchester and Wigan
The Emerging Strategic Context
Baron Frankal
Director of Economic Strategy
[email protected]
The Coalition has introduced a series of significant
changes to the economic development landscape…
Comprehensive
Spending Review
LEPs
RDAs
RGF
Local authority
funding settlement
Local Growth
White Paper
Skills White
Paper
Localism
Bill
This presentation describes what these changes to policy entail, and
how we seek to deliver economic development in GM in the future…
A new economic development landscape is starting
to emerge … designed to reduce costs and increase
private sector involvement
Regional tier (RDAs)
Mix of national, sub-regional and
local activity
Private sector contribute to
public sector contracts
Public sector support for private
sector
Grant and gap funding for
projects
Return on investment and
private sector investment
The emerging landscape in skills & employment
shifts primary responsibility to the private sector
• EMPLOYMENT: The DWP Single Work Programme incentivises private
sector contractors to move people into jobs
• Loss of funding and powers for authorities (Working Neighbourhoods Fund)
• Public sector role becomes more one of influencing contractors and
ensuring integration with other local services and activities
• SKILLS: Primary responsibility for skills provision placed in the hands of the
market – to colleges and other providers
• In GM discussions are underway to form a three way relationship between
providers, businesses and the public sector to ensure skills provision meets
the long term needs of businesses and the economy.
• The LEP will be pivotal in this arrangement
Key responsibilities around business support,
inward investment and trade have been centralised
• Most RDA responsibilities have been centralised nationally, however much
of the delivery of activity will be sub-contracted locally
• The LEPs will provide strategic input and leadership but the LEP is not a
business support delivery body … the onus is on businesses to use
networks and associations to formulate ideas and influence policy
• GM partners are seeking to develop a business support proposition low-cost, high value-added, private sector-led initiative to ensure GM's
businesses have access to the best possible business support services
• MIDAS and Marketing Manchester will promote GM internationally,
fostering international links and attracting inward investments
• Science and innovation is a key priority and GM are seeking to attract a
Technology & Innovation Centre focussing on low carbon
The funding environment has changed significantly,
requiring an adapted approach
• RDA funding will cease to exist - European funding through ERDF will
continue without RDA involvement
• The Regional Growth Fund provides funding for projects delivering economic
growth outcomes
• The Evergreen fund requires a strong return on investment - and aims to
attract public sector pension fund investments as well as private sector
investment. This could create a fund of over £300m
• An increased emphasis will be placed on projects delivering a return on
investment as well as quantifiable and evidenced economic growth outcomes
• A single investment framework is being developed to provide a transparent
and consistent means of assessing GM projects
In this new policy environment the organisational
landscape is changing significantly
Regional tier (RDAs)
Mix of national, sub-regional and
local activity
Ten local authorities + AGMA &
BLC
GM Combined Authority & LEP +
increased collaborative working
Identified GM Strategic Priorities &
produced Delivery Plan
Integrating GM organisations to
drive delivery of GM Priorities
The Greater Manchester Local Enterprise
Partnership (LEP) is being established
• The GM Local Enterprise Partnership proposal has been approved by
government and a Shadow LEP is already in place
• The LEP will drive strategy, set direction and identify growth opportunities
• Recruitment of the full LEP Board is starting, with national
advertisements, in order to be in place from April
• The Board will have a private sector Chair and majority private sector
membership, alongside AGMA representatives
• Private sector members will be selected through an open process, based on
skills and experience rather than representation of particular interest groups
• The GM LEP proposal outlines areas of focus for the LEP - however the
LEP will have scope to shape and define its own agenda
The Greater Manchester Combined Authority (CA)
will work in concert with the GM LEP to drive the
GM agenda
• The GM Combined Authority legislation is currently being finalised, and
will be in place from April
• The CA will be the primary accountable body with the potential to take on
responsibility for coordinating economic development and regeneration and
transport provision across Greater Manchester
• While the LEP defines strategy and sets direction the CA can mobilise local
authority resources to deliver the GM agenda
The GMS continues as the focus of Greater
Manchester’s economic priorities
• Based on MIER, and other evidence, the GMS identifies the 11 priorities to
improve Greater Manchester’s long term economic performance
• Agreed by AGMA and with central government … and now endorsed by the
Shadow LEP
• Individual authorities have a key role to play in achieving the GMS in order
to benefit from improved GM economic performance
GMS PRIORITIES
• Focus on Early Years to maximise impact of
interventions
• Better Life Chances in the most deprived areas
• Increase the proportion of highly skilled people
• Increase international connectivity of GM’s firms
• A Low Carbon Economy – GM specialising in built
environment
• Attract, retain and nurture the best talent
• The Housing Market – Attractive and sustainable
places to live
• Significantly improve transport
• More effective governance
• Expand and diversify economic base
• Building a Sense of Place
GM economic development organisations need to
be aligned and adapted to drive delivery
• The GMS provides the focal point and drives the activity of all GM’s
economic development organisations
• The LEP will become the principal body driving this strategy
• An integrated business plan across GM organisations will ensure delivery
activity is aligned and resources are used effectively and efficiently
• The Combined Authority will offer a similar platform for integration and
alignment of local authority activity
• It is crucial that these organisations work in concert on these key priorities
for Greater Manchester
• … as well as offering support to authorities in identifying and addressing
specific issues of local relevance and importance
Sub-regions in the north west are collaborating to
ensure regional priorities and assets are retained
• A number of regional transition work streams are underway – with subregions and NWDA working closely to ensure critical activity is not ‘lost’
• These groups are accountable to the north west Regional Leaders Board
• The groups are focusing on …
• Regional ‘case-making’ and lobbying
• Identifying and supporting key sectors in the region
• Identifying and retaining key assets – people / data / systems
• Cost efficiencies in research, analysis economic forecasting
In conclusion …
• The GMS remains at the core of Greater Manchester economic strategy
• The LEP and Combined Authority provide Greater Manchester with new
levers to drive forward this strategy
• However the policy and funding environment has changed significantly and
this presents many challenges … as well as opportunities
• Engaging with business becomes ever more important – as does the need
for commercial returns on investments
• Ensuring that GM level organisations work effectively and collaboratively
with local authorities is crucial to achieving our aims