Transcript Slide 1

TN Higher Education Planning &
Making Opportunity Affordable
August 10, 2009
Tennessee Higher Education Commission
Educational Attainment and Rank
Among States Tennessee, 2006 (Percent)
28th
Age 18-24 with HS Diploma
38th
Age 25-64 with HS Diploma
85.0
48th 6.5
Age 25-64 with Associate Degree
42nd
Age 25-64 with Bachelor's or Higher
Age 25-64 with Graduate/Prof. Degree
82.1
40th
0
23.4
7.8
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006 ACS
NCHEMS Data
Student Pipeline, 2006
100
Best Performing State
United States
Tennessee
86.0
80
69.0 67.0
60.0
60
42.0 43.0
42.9
42.0
40
28.0 29.0
30.0
29.3
20.0 19.0
20
23.8
0
Of 100
9th Graders,
How Many…
Graduate from
High School
Directly Enter
College
Enroll in
Second Year
Graduate
Within 150% of
Program Time
Are Age 25-44
with a Bachelor's
Degree
Sources: (1) Tom Mortenson, Postsecondary Opportunity; Chance for College by Age 19. (2) NCES,
IPEDS 2006 Retention Rate File and 2006 Graduation Rate File. (3) U.S. Census Bureau,
2006 American Community Survey.
Higher Education Revenues
Total Revenue per FTE - Universities
Inflation Adjusted
$16,000
$14,000
$12,000
Tuition Incr
$10,000
Tuition
ARRA
$8,000
State
$6,000
$4,000
$2,000
$0
2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12
Tennessee Higher Education Commission
Federal ARRA Overview
American Recovery & Reinvestment Act
$4.4B Tennessee Allocation
$947M Fiscal
Stabilization Fund
$775M for Education primarily for K-12 & higher
education operating funds
$3.45B Other
Programs
$172M for General Purpose - not
education specific, but may include
operating funds and renovation &
repair of facilities
Tennessee Higher Education Commission
The Goal: Tennessee
Reaching International
Competitiveness by 2025
55% of Population
Age 25-64 with
College Degrees
Educational Attainment in Tennessee
Current, in 2025 with current degree production, and bestperforming countries in 2025
60
55.0
40.4
40
35.8
29.8
20
0
Current % of Adults
Age 25-64 with
College Degrees, 2005
Projected % in 2025
with Current Annual
Degree Production
Projected % in 2025
with Current Annual
Degree Production and
Net Migration
% Needed to Reach
Best-Performing
Countries by 2025
Source: NCHEMS
How Can Tennessee Reach
International Competitiveness?
Current Degree Production Combined with Population Growth and
Migration and Improved Performance on the Student Pipeline Measures
Degrees Produced 2005-25 with
Current Rate of Production
714,780
3,045
Additional Degrees from Population Growth
Additional Degrees from Net Migration of
College-Educated Residents
157,205
Reaching Best Performance in High School
Graduation Rates by 2025
30,704
Reaching Best Performance in
College-Going Rates by 2025
45,667
Pipeline is cumulative
Reaching Best Performance in Rates of Degree
Production per FTE Student
117,175
1,068,576
Total Degrees Produced 2005-25 If All of the Above
1,376,532
Degrees Needed to Meet Best Performance (55%)
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
Source: NCHEMS; 2005 ACS, PUMS
Degree Production Challenge
Tennessee Higher Education Commission
Degree Production Challenge
Tennessee Higher Education Commission
Tennessee Policy Audit NCHEMS
• A review of policies and practices
affecting higher education access,
success, and productivity.
• Data analysis
• Campus visits
• Interviews with leaders from business,
legislators and Governor’s staff.
Tennessee Higher Education Commission
Policy Audit Findings
• P-16/College Readiness
– College Placement
– TBR DSP redesign
• Adult Education
• Finance Policy
– Funding Formula
– Performance Funding
• Financial Aid & Tuition Policy
Tennessee Higher Education Commission
Policy Audit Utility
• What’s already in place that TN can
build on?
• How do we leverage resources most
efficiently?
• Identified gaps between policies as
written and as implemented.
• Highlight unintended consequences of
certain policies.
Tennessee Higher Education Commission
Next Steps
• 2010-2015 master plan
• Input from Legislative leaders, systems,
institutions and business
• Align Performance Funding and finance
policy with master plan
• www.tennessee.gov/moa
Tennessee Higher Education Commission
TN Higher Education Planning &
Making Opportunity Affordable
August 10, 2009
Tennessee Higher Education Commission
Annual Percent Change in
State Appropriations
15.0%
10.1%
10.0%
8.0%
7.5%
6.4%
5.0%
2.6% 2.0%
1.9%
6.4%
3.1% 3.7%
3.1% 2.5% 2.6%
0.0%
-1.4%
-5.0%
-1.5%
-7.6%
-10.0%
-15.0%
-15.0%
Tennessee Higher Education Commission
2009-10
2008-09
2007-08
2006-07
2005-06
2004-05
2003-04
2002-03
2001-02
2000-01
1999-00
1998-99
1997-98
1996-97
1995-96
1994-95
1993-94
-20.0%
State Appropriations & ARRA
Higher education operating support levels
Data excludes lottery program and certain administrative and other units.
2005-06
2007-08
2008-09 (post reversion)
2009-10 (Proposed)
$1,110.9M (State Funding MOE requirement)
$1,276.0M (Funding Target)
$1,193.6M
$1,047.6M
Allocation of New Funds
Funding
Target
2008-09 $1,276.0M
2009-10 $1,276.0M
2010-11 $1,276.0M
Totals
Current or
Proposed
$1,193.6M
$1,047.6M
$1,047.6M
State Funds
for MOE
$0
$63.3M
$63.3M
$126.6M
Tennessee Higher Education Commission
Federal Funds
for Stabilization
$82.4M
$165.1M
$165.1M
$412.6M
Total
Funds
$82.4M
$228.4M
$228.4M
$539.2M
Vermont
South Dakota
Minnesota
New Hampshire
Delaware
Kansas
Wyoming
Montana
Hawaii
Maine
Connecticut
Alaska
Idaho
West Virginia
New Mexico
Missouri
Oklahoma
Mississippi
Illinois
Maryland
Wisconsin
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Virginia
Washington
Indiana
Alabama
South Carolina
Arkansas
Kentucky
Michigan
New Jersey
Louisiana
Nevada
Ohio
Tennessee
North Carolina
Georgia
Arizona
Florida
California
Texas
(367,784)
504,547
Massachusetts
Colorado
New York
District of Columbia
Utah
Rhode Island
Iowa
Nebraska
North Dakota
Additional Degrees Needed to Reach
International Competitiveness (55%) by 2025
Even Best Performance with Traditional College-Age
Students at Each Stage of the Educational Pipeline Will
Leave Gaps in More than 30 States
1,333,645
893,504
Texas
Florida
California
New Jersey
Tennessee
Nevada
Louisiana
Arkansas
Kentucky
North Carolina
Arizona
Mississippi
Ohio
South Carolina
Alabama
West Virginia
Alaska
Oklahoma
Oregon
Michigan
New Mexico
Wisconsin
Maine
Idaho
Montana
Hawaii
Georgia
Wyoming
Maryland
Connecticut
Missouri
Indiana
560,688
320,720
307,956
287,565
204,814
186,640
159,765
132,748
122,061
115,120
114,375
112,681
110,495
74,752
65,853
62,332
53,995
53,574
47,420
44,757
39,436
37,706
34,547
28,659
25,326
24,741
23,542
10,875
8,898
2,788
0
100,000
200,000
In order to reach international competitiveness
by 2025, the U.S. and 32 states cannot close
the gap with even best performance with
traditional college students. They must rely on
the re-entry pipeline—getting older adults back
into the education system and on track to
attaining college degrees.
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
Reaching Top Performance by
2025 (55%) Tennessee
3,062,326
Number of Individuals to Match Best-Performing
Countries (55%)
933,034
Number of Individuals (Age 25-44) Who Already
Have Degrees
2,129,292
Additional Production Needed (2005 to 2025)
1,127,850
Degrees Produced at Current Annual Rate of
Production