Transcript WOMEN IN MISSISSIPPI
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MISSISSIPPI ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2010-2015
NATIONAL TRENDS MISSISSIPPI TRENDS
EMPLOYMENT
INDUSTRIES STATE BUDGET
National Economy in 2010
Recent profits, equipment spending strong Private sector jobs being added Inflation not a problem; oil prices moderate Exports growing Stimulus spending slowing Consumer, business spending tentative Employment growth slow Housing not yet on upswing Toxic assets remain on financial books
Mississippi Economy in 2010
Housing, financial bubbles less severe Job loss slowing, retail sales improving Tax revenues stabilizing Major projects boost spending Some of $2.8 billion stimulus to MS remains Uncertainties, unemployment impacting consumers Construction, manufacturing hit hard Tax revenues low relative to state budget Long-term challenges on hold
MS Employment: Comparing Periods of Contraction 102 100 98 96 94 92 90 88 -6 0 6 12 18 Feb 08 - Present Months From Peak Employment: Zero is the Peak 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 May 2000 - Dec 2007 66 72 78 84 Jun 80 - Sep 1985 90 Employment is indexed to month of Peak Employment Level 5
Mississippi versus U.S. Employment Index Quarterly Data Employment as % of 2007:Q1 Employment Level 102 100 MS US 98 96 94 92 07Q1 08Q1 09Q1 10Q1 11Q1 12Q1 Year Source: MS Center for Policy Research & Planning, I.H.S. Global Insight.
Mississippi Employment Growth As of July ,Year-to-Date Versus 2009
MISSISSIPPI CHANGE IN EMPLOYMENT Year-To-Date 2009-2010 Constr Manuf Transport,Util Leisure,Hosp Business,Prof Finance Mining Trade Govt Health,Social TOTAL -12
-10,6
-10 -8
-4,1 -3 -3 -3 -2,4 -1,2 -0,2
-6 -4
Percentage Change -1,5
-2 0
0,7
2
3
4
Source: Data from MS Dept of Employment Security.
Mississippi Employment Growth July 2009 versus July 2010
MISSISSIPPI CHANGE IN EMPLOYMENT July 2009 versus July 2010 Constr Manuf Leisure,Hosp Finance Transport,Util Trade Govt Health,Social Business,Prof Mining TOTAL -12
-10,1
-10 -8
-2,9 -1,5 -1,3 -0,9
-6 -4 -2
-0,6 Percentage Change
0
0,6 0,8 1
2
2,8
4 6
7,3
8
Source: Data from MS Dept of Employment Security.
Unemployment Rates, Mississippi Urban Areas
UNEMPLOYMENT RATES, STATE AND MSAs, July 2009 & July 2010
(U.S. 9.5% - July)
Jul-09 Jul-10 10,4% 11,5% 8,2% 9,3% 8,6% 9,5% 8,2% 9,2% 8,9% 10,0% Mississippi Gulfprt-Biloxi Hattiesburg Jackson
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Pascagoula
Gulf Coast Employment July 2010 versus August 2005
TOTAL EMPLOYMENT Construction Manufacturing LeisureHosplty(G-B) Transport & Utilities Retail Trade 74% 94% 92% 99% 126% 113% Government 103% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140%
Leisure/hsplty employment in G-B down 3.1% versus last July Source: Data from MS Dept of Employment Security.
MS Regains 2000 Employment Level In 2015 EMPLOYMENT AS A PERCENTAGE OF 2000 EMPLOYMENT LEVELS, U.S. & MISSISSIPPI 108 106 104 102 100 98 96 94 92 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 MS US 2010 2012 2014 Year Source: MS Center for Policy Research & Planning, I.H.S. Global Insight.
Employment By Sector 2010, MS vs. U.S.
(Percent)
20% 23% 17% 13% 16% 10% 11% MS US 11% 8% 13% 4% 4% 4% 0%
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics.
190 170 150 130 110 90 70 Construction Employment, Coast and Rest of Mississippi, 2005-10 Total Coast Rest of State CONSTRUCTION EMPLOYMENT IN STATE AND COASTAL MSA'S August 2005 = 100 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
MS And US Housing Market
% Change 2007:Q2 – 2009:Q2
SALES EXISTING HOMES, STATE AND U.S. Q2:07 to Q2:09 MS US -5% -17% -22% -39% Median Price Sales -63% -63% Housing Starts
Mississippi Housing Market
% Change 2009:Q1 – 2010:Q1
SALES EXISTING HOMES, STATE AND U.S. % Change 2009:Q1 - 2010:Q1 MS US 10% 9% 16% -2% -1% Median Price Sales -27% Housing Starts
Value of Housing Building Permits Mississippi, Aug. 2008 - July 2010
Value of Residential Building Permits ($ millions) 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar 08-09 Apr 09-10 May Jun Jul
Foreclosures and Past Due Payments Mississippi Housing Market 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% J-00
Past Due In Foreclosure US
J-01 J-02 J-03 J-04 J-05
US 4.6% MS 3.0% foreclosure rate,Q2
J-06 J-07 J-08 J-09 J-10 Source: Mortgage Bankers Association.
Major New Projects
Port at Gulfport $570 million Schulz Extruded Products $300 million Enterprise for Innovative Geospatial Solutions $279 million Twin Creeks Technologies $175 million Toyota Auto Plant $1.3 billion LNG Project $1.1 billion Severstal Expansion $500 million Keesler Air Force Project $950 million Source: Mississippi Authority Development
Mississippi Retail Sales August 2008 to July 2010
Retail Sales $ millions 4 500 4 300 4 100 3 900 3 700 3 500 3 300 3 100 2 900 2 700 2 500 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 08-09
Source: Mississippi Department of Revenue.
Jan Feb 09-10 Mar Apr May Jun
Transfers to General Fund August 2008 to August 2010
General Fund Revenues 600 400 200 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar 08-09 Apr May 09-10 Jun
Source: Mississippi Department of Revenue.
Jul Aug
Growth in General Fund Transfers
FY2009 versus FY2010
Percent Change FY2009 to FY2010 Gaming Fees&Taxes Indiv Income Tax Sales Tax Corpor Income Tax Use Tax Insur Premium Tax TOTAL G.F. Revenue -10 -9,2 -7,3 -4,6 1,1 1,4 -5,8 -12 -11 -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
Growth in State General Fund Transfers ( August 2009 versus August 2010)
Gaming Fees&Taxes -2,3 Indiv Income Tax 8,8 Sales Tax Corpor Income Tax 0,3 147 Use Tax -4 Insur Premium Tax -28,8 TOTAL G.F. Revenue 4,1 -50 -30 -10 10 30 50 70 Percentage Change
SOURCE: MS Dept of Revenue .
90 110 130 150 170
FY2011 GROSS STATE PRODUCT $93.1 billion MISSISSIPPI BUDGET $19.1 billion Federal Funds $9.3 b.
State-Source Spec. Funds $5.4 b.
State General Fund $4.4 b. Source : MS Dept of Finance & Admin.
1,9% 2,6%
Economic Forecast 2009 to 2010 (Percent Change)
Growth Rates, Mississippi and US, 2009-10 MS US 2,6% 2,8% 0,9% 0,9% Output -1,1% -0,5% Employment Personal Income Inflation
2,2% 2,2%
Economic Forecast 2010 to 2011 (Percent Change)
Growth Rates, Mississippi and US, 2010-11 2,9% 3,1% MS US 1,3% 1,4% 0,7% 0,9% Output Employment Personal Income Inflation
2,5%
Projected and Past Employment Growth MS and US
Actual and Projected Annual % Growth of Employment MS US 2,0% 1,8% 1,5% 1,4% 1,0% 0,5% 0,0% -0,1% -0,5% -0,5% -1,0% 2004-2009 2010-2015
Source: MS Center for Policy Research & Planning, Global Insight.
Projected and Past Output Growth MS and US
Actual and Projected Annual % Growth of GSP and GDP 3,5% 3,0% 2,5% 2,0% 1,5% 1,0% 0,5% 0,8% MS US 1,0% 2,7% 3,1% 0,0% 2004-2009 2010-2015
Source: MS Center for Policy Research & Planning, Global Insight.
Employment Forecast by Sector (average annual rate of change )
MISSISSIPPI EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS Average Annual Growth Rates 2010-2015 Business,Other Serv Health & Social Asst Construction Transport & Utilities Manufacturing Trade Leisure,Hospitality Agric, Forest,Fish Government Finance, Real Est Mining TOTAL -1,6 0,8 0,6 0,5 0,4 1,3 1,5 2,4 2,7 2,1 2,4 1,9 -2,5 -1,5 -0,5 0,5 1,5 2,5 3,5
Source: MS Center for Policy Research and Planning.
WILL THIS CRISIS BE AN OPPORTUNITY LOST?
Financial Sector: Transparency & Accountability Restructuring: Health, Energy Social Safety Net State Budget: Performance-Based Budgeting, Policymaking Capacity, Tax Reform
EDUCATION AND THE SKILL GAP
29%
of persons in U.S. from 25 to 64 years old have a bachelor ’s degree or higher Only
20%
of persons from 25 to 64 years old in Mississippi have a bachelor ’s degree or higher
SOURCE: U.S. Census and U.S. Monthly Labor Review, U.S. Dept. of Labor, 2007.
Fighting Poverty: Education and More Required
POVERTY RATES OF ADULTS, AGED 18 - 64, BY LEVEL OF EDUCATION, M ISSISSIPPI 40.0% H.S.
B.A.
36% 30.0% 21% 20.0% 12% 10.0% 8% 5% 5% 4% 0.0% Men, Not Black Women, Not Black Black Men SOURCE: PUMS Dataset, 2000 Census .
11% Black Women
IN SUMMARY
Starting climb from bottom Jobs, state revenues stabilizing US, world growth will be a positive Major projects on-line Long-term challenges remain Ability to innovate, compete Education, research State budget, health, energy, social issues