Transcript Slide 1

Uma iniciativa
Apoio
Reference Scenario - Government Plan
•World – GDP growth
•2013-2020: 3.8% per year
•2021-2030: 3.2% per year
•Average 2013-2030: 3.6% per year
•Brazil –GDP Growth
•2013-2020: 3.7% per year
•2021-2030: 4.1% per year
•Average 2013-2030: 3.9% per year
•Oil Price
•85 US$/barril
Reference Scenario - Government Plan
•Exchange rate
•2.20 R$/US$
•Population
•Total:223 Million
•Active population
from 45.8% in 2005 to 49.7% in 2030
•GDP Composition:
% VA
2010
2030
Agriculture
5.3%
5.6%
Industry
28.1%
26.4%
Services
66.6%
68.0%
Reference Scenario - Government Plan
Production by sector (2005 = 1)
6.0
5.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
-
3.3
2.8
2.4
1.7
2.1
2.9
2.8
2.8
2.9
1.9
2.3
1.5
2.6
1.9
2.7
Reference Scenario - Government Plan
Net Exports
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
-10,000
-20,000
-30,000
-40,000
-50,000
2005
CPG-2030
Scenarios Description
Scenario
Description
CPG
Reference Scenario – Follow trends from Copenhagen Pledges
MA1-T
Mitigation Scenario 1 – (20 US$ carbon tax + mitigation measures)
MA2-T
Mitigation Scenario 2 – (100 US$ carbon tax + mitigation measures)
Scenario
Description (Still working on them)
MA1-N
Mitigation Scenario 1 – (mitigation measures, no Carbon Tax)
MA2-N
Mitigation Scenario 2 – (mitigation measures, no Carbon Tax)
Mitigation Scenario 1
SECTOR
WASTE
SERVICES
ENERGY
TRANSPORT
AFOLU
INDUSTRY
MITIGATION MEASURE
Methane destruction > Reference scenario
Moreefficient light bulbs
Sugar Cane Bagasse
Wind Power
Traffic management
Bike ways
Energy efficiency programs for light vehicles
Ethanol: + 6 Billion liters
Biodiesel – B10
BRT
Energy efficiency programs for heavy vehicles
Biological nitrogen fixation (Corn)
Pasture restoration
crop-livestock-forestry integration systems(+2M ha)
Aforestation – 12.5 M ha
Reforestation – Atlantic forest
Sugar cane area increase (M1)
Cement: Reduction from 3,50 GJ/t clinquer in 2010 to 3,1 in 2030 and increase
co-processing in 75% from 2010 level
Steel: 2% reduction in energy intensity related to 2010
Mitigation Scenario 2
SETOR
RESIDENTIAL
WASTE
SERVICES
ENERGY
TRANSPORT
MEDIDAS DE MITIGAÇÃO
Solar waterheating
Efficient light bulbs
Efficient refrigerators
Methane destruction > Mitigation scenario 1
Efficient light bulbs > Mitigation scenario 1
Bagasse = MA1
WindPower = MA1
Refining efficiency > MA1
Hidro power increase > reference scenario
Traffic management
Ethanol: + 16 Billion liters (6 billion liters from 2G)
Bike ways
Energy efficiency programs for light vehicles
Energy efficiency programs for heavy vehicles
Modal shift to rail and hidro for load transport
VLT
Subway
Biodiesel - B15
Mitigation Scenario 2
SECTOR
AFOLU
INDUSTRY
MITIGATION MEASURES
Biological nitrogen fixation (Corn)
Pasture restoration
crop-livestock-forestry integration systems(+2M ha)
Aforestation – 15 M ha
Reforestation – Atlantic forest
Sugar cane area increase (M2)
Cement: Reduction from 3,50 GJ/t clinquer in 2010 to 2.85 in 2030 and increase
co-processing in 75% from 2010 level
Steel: 5% reduction in energy intensity related to 2010
Modelling mitigation measures in IMACLIM-BR
• IMACLIM-BR is a hybrid general equilibrium model
• Monetary (M R$2005) e phisical (Ktep) flows are represented
• Mitigation measures modelling:
•Technical coefficients changes according to Bottomup information:
•Fuel changes or reduction: technical coefficients are
changed according to sectoral specific information for each
measure
• Investments – Capital intensity of the sector changes
according to sectoral specific information for each measure
Methodological Approach
Mitigation
Measures
Identification
Results for SBT 4
Costs and Abatement
Potential
Sectorial models
simulation
Correction of Level of Activity
of the sector and balance
between supply and demand
Simulation of the
measures in IMACLIM
Costs and
potentials verified
and/or corrected
Macroeconomic Results
2005
2013 CPG-2030
MA1-T
MA2-T
Population (10^6)
185
196
223
223
223
GDP (10^12 R$2005)
2.14
3.24
5.54
5.32
5.04
3.87%
3.70%
3.48%
-4%
-10%
-15,8%
-33,4%
1539
1296
1025
24.83
23.84
22.60
GDP Growth per year (%)
GDP variation in relation to CPG in 2030
GHG emission reduction in relation to CGP in
2030
GHG emissions (Mt CO2eq./year)
2351
GDP per capita (10^3 R$2005)
11.57
16.52
Macroeconomic Results
2005
2013 CPG-2030
MA1-T
MA2-T
Total Jobs (10^6)
91.21 100.06
126.18
125.32
124.55
Unemployment rate(%)
9.90% 6.70%
5.19%
5.84%
6.41%
4,7%
6,4%
12,5%
3.90
15.84
32.75
44.32
3.70% 0.12%
0.29%
0.62%
0.88%
15.50% 18.19%
20.84%
21.06%
20.78%
1.15
1.12
1.05
230.06
563.82
Mitigation investments in 2030 (Bi de R$2005)
11.71
29.26
Mit. Invest./GDP in 2030
0.22%
0.58%
Price index in relation to 2005 (%)
Trade Balance (10^6 R$2005)
TradeBalance (% GDP)
Investment rate (% of GDP)
78.8
Investments excluding mitigation (10^12
R$2005)
0.33
0.59
Total Mitigation Investments 2015-2030
(10^9 R$2005)
Macroeconomic Results
Phisical production - Energy goods
CPG 2030 = 100%
140%
120%
100%
80%
CPG-2030
60%
MA1-T
MA2-T
40%
20%
0%
Biomass
(Ktep)
Coal (Ktep)
Oil (Ktep)
Natural Gas
Oil
(Ktep)
derivatives
(Ktep)
Eletricity
(Ktep)
Macroeconomic Results
Phisical production – Industrial goods
CPG 2030 = 100%
105%
100%
95%
CPG-2030
90%
MA1-T
MA2-T
85%
80%
75%
Pulp&Paper Cement (M Steel (M t) Non Ferrous Chemical
(M t)
t)
(M t)
Mining
Rest of
Industry
Macroeconomic Results
Phisical Production – Other sectors
CPG 2030 = 1
102%
100%
98%
96%
CPG-2030
94%
MA1-T
MA2-T
92%
90%
88%
86%
Transport
Agriculture
Services
Macroeconomic Results
Net Exports (ktep or M tons)
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
CPG-2030
MA1-T
-10,000
-20,000
-30,000
-40,000
-50,000
MA2-T
Macroeconomic Results
Income Classes definitions
Income Class
Minimum wages in
base year
(125 US$ in 2005)
Population distribution
Class 1
Up to 2 mw
Poorest 15%
Class 2
from 3 to 10 mw
Next 55%
Class 3
More than 10 mw
Richest 30%
Macroeconomic Results
GDP per capita and average income by class
GDP per
Capita(R$
2005)
Total
Average Income by Class
(R$ 2005)
Class 1
Class 2
Class 3
Base year - 2005
11,588
1,169
4,421
26,360
CPG - 2030
Average growth per year
24,870
3.1%
3,251
4.2%
10,786
3.6%
46,851
2.3%
23,880
2.9%
3,112
4.0%
10,336
3.5%
45,012
2.2%
22,630
2.7%
2,977
3.8%
9,882
3.3%
43,082
2.0%
MA1_T
Average growth per year
MA2_T
Average growth per year
Macroeconomic Results
Average family consumption by class
Agricultural products
(R$ 2005)
300,000
250,000
200,000
Ano-base 2005
CPG - 2030
150,000
MA1_T
MA2_T
100,000
50,000
Classe 1
Classe 2
Classe 3
Macroeconomic Results
Average family consumption by class
Transport Services (R$ 2005)
1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000
Ano-base 2005
CPG - 2030
600,000
MA1_T
MA2_T
400,000
200,000
Classe 1
Classe 2
Classe 3
Macroeconomic Results
Average family consumption by class
Other Services (R$ 2005)
1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000
Ano-base 2005
CPG - 2030
600,000
MA1_T
MA2_T
400,000
200,000
Classe 1
Classe 2
Classe 3
GHG Emissions (Mt CO2 eq.)
1600
1500
Mt CO2eq.
1400
1300
1200
1100
1000
900
800
CPG
MA1-T
MA2-T
2010
1236
1236
1236
Emission reductions %
MA1-T
MA2-T
2015
1206
1115
1078
2010
0%
0%
2020
1240
1120
1026
2015
8%
11%
2025
1313
1233
1041
2020
10%
17%
2030
1539
1296
1025
2025
6%
21%
2030
16%
33%
GHG Emission (Mt CO2 eq.)
CPG-2030
700
600
AFOLU
500
Transport
Industry
400
Energy Supply
300
Residential
200
Services
Agriculture
100
Waste
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
MA2-T
MA1-T
700
700
AFOLU
600
Transport
500
Industry
400
Energy Supply
300
600
AFOLU
500
Industry
Transport
400
Energy Supply
Residential
300
200
Services
200
Services
100
Agriculture
100
Agriculture
Waste
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Residential
Waste
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
GHG Emission by Sector(Mt CO2 eq.)
Transport
800
400
700
350
600
300
500
CPG
400
MA1-T
300
MA2-T
200
Mt CO2eq.
Mt CO2eq.
AFOLU
250
0
0
2020
2025
MA2-T
100
50
2015
MA1-T
150
100
2010
CPG
200
2030
2010
2015
2025
2030
Energy Supply
350
160
300
140
250
120
200
CPG
150
MA1-T
100
MA2-T
50
Mt CO2eq.
Mt CO2eq.
Industry
2020
CPG
100
MA1-T
80
MA2-T
60
40
20
0
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
0
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
GHG Emission by Sector(Mt CO2 eq.)
Residential
100
56
90
54
52
80
70
CPG
60
MA1-T
50
MA2-T
40
Mt CO2eq.
Mt CO2eq.
Waste
48
MA1-T
46
MA2-T
44
42
30
2010
2015
2020
2025
40
2030
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Services
Agriculture
6
30
5
20
CPG
15
MA1-T
10
MA2-T
Mt CO2eq.
25
Mt CO2eq.
CPG
50
4
CPG
3
MA1-T
2
MA2-T
1
5
0
0
2010
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2015
2020
2025
2030
Some indicators...
ton CO2eq./capita
14.00
12.00
12.71
10.00
8.00
8.07
6.00
8.51
7.20
5.73
4.00
2.00
2005
2010
CPG-2030
MA1-T
MA2-T
ton CO2eq./GDP (10^3US$)
3.00
2.50
2.00
2.42
1.50
1.00
1.13
0.50
0.63
0.55
0.46
CPG-2030
MA1-T
MA2-T
-
2005
2010
2.4
Brazil 2005
Brazil 2010
Brazil CPG-2030
Brazil MA1
Brazil MA2
International Energy Agency - World Energy Outlook 2013
Thank You!
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