Transcript PowerPoint Template (English Version)

Skills Gaps in Canada
Mark Hopkins, Director General
Learning Policy Directorate
Human Resources and Skills Development Canada
Presentation to ILO Meeting of Experts on Skills to Meet Global Challenges
March 16, 2010
Economic growth has depended on growth in workforce and education levels
Labour force participation rate, by age group
 Education levels have risen quite
dramatically over the past two
decades.
85
Labour force participation rate
 The number of workers in Canada
nearly doubled over the past three
decades – both as a result of
population growth, and because of
increased labour force participation.
90
80
75
70
65
60
15 to 24 years
25 to 44 years
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
 High attainment results in large part
from sustained enrolment growth.
For instance, university enrolments
have doubled since 1976, and
climbed by about 1/3 in the last
decade alone.
1976
55
45 to 64 years
Highest Educational Attainment, 25-54 year olds
40%
35%
30%
 Immigration policies reinforce
Canada’s high education levels:
58% of recent male immigrants and
49% of recent female immigrants
hold at least a bachelor’s degree.
25%
20%
15%
Less than High School
Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey
High School
Other Post-secondary
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
10%
University
2
Future growth will rely more on skills quality than on the number of workers
Future population change, by age range
35%
 The relative size of the traditional
working age population will decline fairly
sharply.
Share of Population
15%
10%
2056
2054
2052
2050
2048
2046
2044
2042
2040
2038
2036
2034
Ages 25-44
2032
2030
2028
2026
2024
2022
2020
2018
2016
2014
2012
2010
Age 65 and above
Recent growth in labour force participation, 25-54 year olds
4.0%
Average annual change over five year period
 This in turn will depend on the breadth
and depth of skills acquired through
education and work experience.
20%
2008
 In order to maintain and improve its
standard of living, Canada will need to
focus on increasing productivity and
stimulating innovation.
25%
2006
 Growth in labour market participation
has reached a point where further gains
are harder to make. In the coming
decade, average annual labour force
growth is forecast to fall to 0.8%, down
from 1.7% over the past decade.
30%
3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
-0.5%
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
-1.0%
The five years ending in...
Both sexes
Sources: Statistics Canada Cansim 052-0004 and Labour Force Survey
Males
Females
3
Pre-recession, attention focussed on occupational skills shortages…
 There were strong employment gains in
primary and domestic-oriented sectors,
driven by the resource-boom and gains
in terms of trade and national income.
 Demand for skilled labour remained
robust across most sectors, particularly
in Western Canada.
Source: Statistics Canada CANSIM 302-0008
Manufacterers' opinions (%)
 A declining trend in manufacturing
employment was brought about by
adjustments to higher dollar, higher
energy costs, and increased
competition from low-cost countries.
The Percentage (%) of Manufacturers’ Reporting
Production Difficulties due to Skilled Labour
Shortages in Alberta 2004-2007
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
I
II
III
2004
IV
I
II
III
2005
IV
I
II
III
2006
IV
I
II
III
2007
4
IV
… although the recession temporarily closed these gaps.
 Real gross domestic product (GDP)
declined, but is now recovering.
Unemployment grew while the
employment rate decreased.
 Federal and provincial/territorial
governments responded to the
recession’s challenges by increasing
access to income support, education,
and training, for instance:
•
Increasing training and PSE
infrastructure funding
1 200
1 180
1 160
2008
2009
Unemployment, Youth Unemployment, and
Employment Rate in Canada, May 2008 - Jan. 2010
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
64
63
62
61
60
M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F
2008
Unemployment Rate (15+)
Source: Statistics Canada
2009
Youth Unemployment Rate (15-24)
2010
Employment Rate (15+)
5
Employment Rate (%)
Extending Employment Insurance
(EI) benefits
1 220
Unemployment Rate (%)
•
1 240
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
$ billions (chained 2002)
Canadian GDP at basic prices, Jan. 2008 - Dec. 2009
Looking forward, Canada will need a more broadly and deeply skilled workforce
 Job growth will be concentrated in
occupations that require a tertiary
post-secondary credential or
management skills.
 This will require a further increase
in the education levels of the youth
and adult populations.
 It will not be enough to simply add
new highly skilled Canadians to the
workforce.
Job Openings from Expansion Demand and
Replacement Demand by Skill Level, 2009-2018
2,000
Expansion Demand
1,800
Replacement Demand (Retirements)
1,600
Replacement Demand (Deaths and
Emigration)
1,400
Source: HRSDC Canadian Occupation Projection System
2 out of 3 job openings in occupations
usually requiring PSE or in management
25.6%
22.7%
1,200
1,000
800
 Rather, there must be a focus on
sustainability of skills: Canadians
must be able to maintain and
upgrade their skills over their entire
careers.
32.9%
11.2%
600
7.7%
400
200
0
Management
University
College
High School
On-the-job
Training
6
Occupational Gaps
 In reality, some of these imbalances
may not materialize. Where efficient
markets exist, wages will adjust over
time to bring supply and demand into
balance.
 Forecasts are typically limited by their
inherent focus on formal educational
attainment and on occupational skills.
 Still, it is possible to project some
broad future labour market trends and
opportunities, e.g. the low carbon
economy, or services for an aging
population. Education and training
can be strategically deployed to
anticipate and help create the future.
Source: HRSDC Canadian Occupation Projection System
Annual Change in Job Seekers and Job Openings by
Occupation (3-digit), as % of 2008 Employment
10
9
8
Job Openings (%)
 Labour market projections forecast
that some occupational groups will be
in a “shortage” situation – particularly
in the health professions, skilled
trades, and in human resources
areas.
7
← Registered nurses and supervisors
6
5
4
3
2
← Agriculture & horticulture
1
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Job Seekers (%)
7
Long-term Innovation Gaps
 Globalization is placing increasing emphasis on skills, innovation, productivity, and
value chains.
 Strong foundational skills (literacy and numeracy), as well as rich sets of cognitive and
non-cognitive skills (e.g. critical thinking, capacity for teamwork) are critical for
achieving equitable and sustainable long-term growth.
 These skill sets support productivity and innovation, at the firm level and economywide.
 They enable economies, sectors, and firms to respond nimbly to evolving
opportunities, through business models that are more innovative and skills driven.
 They give individuals and economies the resilience and adaptability they require in
uncertain and turbulent times characterized by:
• Structural economic change
• Changing skill content of existing jobs
• Career ladders
Failure to address these “latent gaps” risks trapping economies in low-skill trajectories
8
Persistent Equity Gaps
 Achievement gaps within the population have social and economic impacts, and
lessen the efficiency of the labour market.
 Canada’s learning systems have performed well in recent years – skill levels of
children are relatively independent of socio-economic status.
 Nonetheless, real challenges remain. For example, in 2006, only 4.3% of Aboriginal
people living on reserve held a university degree, vs. 23.4% of the non-Aboriginal
population.
 Older workers, particularly those in sectors such as manufacturing and construction,
have disproportionately low literacy skills. Other populations with very low skills
include female immigrants, and males with less than a high school education.
9
These gaps call for balanced approaches which bridge short-term needs…
Jobs of today
 Sustaining skills, and demand for skills, through the recession and the fragile recovery:
 Activation measures
 Supporting youth labour market transitions
 Work-sharing
 Supporting older workers
 Labour market information
10
… and long-term transformations.
Preparing for jobs of tomorrow
 Given inevitable uncertainty around the future need for skills, and given the substantial
risks posed by an underskilled population, all partners must be ambitious in their
pursuit of a skills agenda.
 Firms need to better integrate training and best practices into their business models,
because skills demand and innovation strategies interact.
 Governments need to revisit and reform PSE and adult learning architecture, so that it
reflects not traditions of the past, but needs of tomorrow.
 Learning providers need to enhance their efficiency, effectiveness and responsiveness,
by paying close attention to learner outcomes; by working together with partners in
business and not-for-profit sectors to shape curriculum; and by coordinating their own
efforts as part of a broader learning system.
 Individuals need to recognize the personal costs of underskilling.
 Partnerships involving the third sector and unions can bridge the social, economic, and
labour market dimensions of skills issues, leading to social innovation.
11
Annex: Initiatives of Canadian governments
to address evolving skills needs
12
Canada’s governments strongly support skills development
 Governments work with partners to provide Canadians with the skills they
will need in the short-, medium-, and longer-terms.
 Support takes many forms, including:
• formal education institutions and student financial assistance
• activation measures
• measures to promote skills retention
• measures to promote partnerships
• labour market information
• literacy and essential skills training
• support for workplace training
 Government support recognizes the need for all Canadians to have
access to opportunities for skills development.
13
Formal Education
 The K-12 system provides
Canadians with a sound skills base,
as evidenced in standardized test
results (e.g. PISA).
 Apprenticeships provide experiential
learning opportunities in which
private industry plays a major
partnership role.
Full-day Kindergarten
Some provinces are moving towards
providing full-day kindergarten, in order to
enhance the academic and social
development of young learners.
Red Seal Program
This program allows qualified tradespeople to
practice their trade anywhere in Canada
where the trade is designated, without having
to write further examinations.
14
Formal Education
 Colleges offer a broad variety of
programming that responds to an
evolving labour market and
employer demand, while developing
students’ core skills.
 Universities, while less directly
responsive to the labour market,
provide Canadians with the highlevel core skills needed for flexibility,
as well as specific occupational
skills.
 Both colleges and universities
provide continuing education
programs that enhance adults’ skills.
Training Partnerships
Sault College is partnering with Brookfield
Power to train students in the area of
renewable energy. Students develop skills
that are of value for Brookfiield’s Algoma
Region wind farm, and more generally for
employment in an evolving sector.
Ambitious Attainment Goals
The Province of Ontario has set the goal of
raising the province’s PSE attainment rate to
70%.
University 1
This innovative program at the University of
Manitoba seeks to reinforce the core skills
benefits that Canada’s university students
gain from a general education curriculum.
University 1 enables flexible choices and
provides learning support.
15
Activation Measures, Skills Retention and Skills Partnerships
 The majority of Canadian activation
measures have been devolved to
provincial and territorial
governments and to community
organisations. This helps better
meet regional needs and reduce
duplication.
 In response to the recession,
Canada has enhanced training and
work experience measures to
support workers as they transition to
new jobs and opportunities.
 Employment Insurance Work
Sharing allows employers to retain
employees. Workers maintain
employment and keep their skills up
to date.
Second Career in Ontario
Provides laid-off workers with skills training to
help them find jobs in high-demand
occupations. Provides up to $28,000 for
expenses such as tuition and living costs, for
programs lasting up to 2 years.
Youth Employment Strategy
This federal program helps youth acquire the
skills and work experience required to
increase labour market success. It serves
youth at risk, post-secondary students (via
summer work experience), and postsecondary graduates.
Education/Sector Council Partnership
Projects are developing a model of
partnership between sector councils and
school boards, in order to leverage
engagement, learning, skill development and
student career opportunities.
16
Labour Market Information
 Labour market information helps
students, workers and employers
anticipate the skills that will be
needed in the future.
 The federal and provincial/territorial
governments produce and interpret
labour market data to provide key
resources at the national, regional
and local levels.
 At HRSDC, labour market
information products include the
Canadian Occupational Projection
System, the National Occupational
Classification, and the Job Futures
website.
CanLearn
• An online post-secondary education
resource that provides Canadians with the
information and services they need to decide
what and where to study, and how to cover
the costs.
• Provides learners with resources – from
interactive planning tools to information about
financing education.
• Provides governments, learning institutions
and other organizations with the means to
collaborate on information provision and
planning tools for learners.
17
Literacy and Essential Skills and Workplace Training/Learning
 Provincial/territorial governments
and community organizations
provide literacy and essential skills
training.
 The federal Sector Council Program
works with the private sector to
enhance workers’ skills by
increasing employer investments in
skills development, and by
promoting workplace learning and
training.
 Canadian governments view
workplace learning and training as a
primarily private (employer,
employee) responsibility.
Workplace Learning PEI
Works in partnership with businesses,
industry, labour and government to assess
employees’ LES needs and recommends
Essential Skills programs.
Quebec Training Levy
Employers with payrolls over $1 million must
invest a minimum of 1% of their total payroll in
training.
Those failing to do so contribute an equivalent
amount to a Training Fund that supports
workplace training initiatives.
18
Addressing the needs of particular subpopulations
 Canadian governments work to
address the skills needs of particular
subpopulations such as:
–
–
–
–
Persons with Disabilities
Aboriginal Peoples
Immigrants
Older Workers
 To meet skills gaps, the federal
government, in collaboration with
provincial/territorial partners, has
taken steps to improve recognition
of foreign credentials.
Immigrants
Enhanced Language Training provides job
specific language training in English and
French, along with work-related experiences,
such as mentoring and job placements.
The Colleges Integrating Immigrants to
Employment (CIITE) project improves the
pathways for internationally trained
immigrants through the Ontario college
system.
Aboriginal Skills and Employment
Partnership
• Provides Aboriginal people with the skills and
training they need to participate in economic
opportunities.
• Fosters partnerships between Aboriginal
organizations, the private sector, provincial
and territorial governments.
19