Transcript Introduction

Population Growth and Demography
Chapter 4 of Richards and Waterbury
Link to syllabus
Link to WDI
Table 4.1 p. 73 (R&W). Demographic Indicators. 1970-2003
Population Growth in MENA
Source: World Bank (2004) Unlocking Employment
Population Growth Rates, Regional Averages.
%/yr.
Population Growth Rates: MENA and other Regions
4
Middle East & North
Africa
3
High income: OECD
East Asia & Pacific
2
Latin America &
Caribbean
1
South Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa
0
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
MENA had one of highest rates; it has been declining since 1990
Population Growth Rates (%/yr) Algeria
Bahrain
Population Growth: countriesEgypt, Arab Rep.
10
Iran, Islamic Rep.
9
Iraq
8
Jordan
Kuwait
7
Lebanon
6
Libya
5
Morocco
Oman
4
Qatar
3
Saudi Arabia
Syrian Arab Republic
2
Tunisia
1
0
1960
Turkey
United Arab Emirates
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
West Bank and Gaza
Yemen, Rep.
Population Growth Rates Non-GCC (%/yr)
10
Population growth, non GCCAlgeria
9
Egypt, Arab Rep.
8
Iran, Islamic Rep.
Iraq
7
Jordan
6
Lebanon
Libya
5
Morocco
4
Oman
Syrian Arab Republic
3
Tunisia
2
Turkey
1
West Bank and Gaza
Yemen, Rep.
0
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Figure 6-2 (Lynn text). Demographic Transition.
Page 144
Source: Lynn, Economic Development
Link to MENA_PopGrowth.xls
Note: the change in pop. growth is bigger than the change in birth rates
There will be a growth in the working-age population, a generation later.
Source: Can’t find the title, but the page numbers were: 19, 40
Algeria
6.0
5.0
Birth rate, crude
(per 100 people)
4.0
3.0
Death rate,
crude (per 100
people)
2.0
1.0
0.0
1960
1980
2000
4.0
3.0
Population
growth (annual
%)
2.0
1.0
0.0
1960
1980
2000
Egypt
5.0
4.0
Birth rate, crude (per
100 people)
Death rate, crude (per
100 people)
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
1960
4.0
1980
2000
3.0
Population growth
(annual %)
2.0
1.0
0.0
1960
1980
2000
Lebanon
5.0
4.0
Birth rate, crude (per 100
people)
Death rate, crude (per 100
people)
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
1960
1980
2000
4.0
3.0
Population growth (annual
%)
2.0
1.0
0.0
1960
1980
2000
Yemen
6.0
5.0
4.0
Birth rate, crude (per 100
people)
Death rate, crude (per 100
people)
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
1960
1980
2000
4.0
3.0
Population growth (annual
%)
2.0
1.0
0.0
1960
1980
2000
Death Rates/1000, Regional Averages
Death Rates Regions
30
Middle East & North
Africa
25
High income: OECD
20
East Asia & Pacific
15
Latin America &
Caribbean
10
South Asia
5
Sub-Saharan Africa
0
1960
1970
Source: WDI data
1980
1990
2000
2010
Death Rates/1000
Death Rates: Countries
30
Algeria
Bahrain
Egypt, Arab Rep.
Iran, Islamic Rep.
Iraq
Jordan
25
Kuwait
20
Lebanon
Libya
15
Morocco
Oman
Qatar
Saudi Arabia
10
Syrian Arab Republic
Tunisia
5
0
1960
Source: WDI data
Turkey
United Arab Emirates
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
West Bank and Gaza
Yemen, Rep.
Birth Rates, Regional Averages
100
Birth Rates: Regional Averages
Middle East & North
Africa
High income: OECD
East Asia & Pacific
Latin America &
Caribbean
South Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa
10
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Birth Rates/1000, 1960-2004
BirthRates/1000
100
Algeria
Bahrain
Egypt, Arab Rep.
Iran, Islamic Rep.
Iraq
Jordan
Kuwait
Lebanon
Libya
Morocco
Oman
Qatar
Saudi Arabia
Syrian Arab Republic
Tunisia
Turkey
10
1960
United Arab Emirates
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
West Bank and Gaza
Yemen, Rep.
Fertility Rates: WDI
10.0
Yemen
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
Israel
2.0
1.0
0.0
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Algeria
Bahrain
Egypt
Iran
Iraq
Israel
Jordan
Kuwait
Lebanon
Libya
Morocco
Oman
Qatar
Saudi Arabia
Syria
Tunisia
Turkey
U.A.E.
WB & G
Yemen
El-Tigani’s data on fertility rates for Egypt and Tunisia
Theories on Fertility
Factors increasing birth rate:
Mother: Better health of mother. Longer life. Better health care.
Demand: Assumption would be that with higher income, more kids
– Explained away by Becker as demand for quality.
Factors decreasing birth rate:
Mother: age at marriage, more equal divorce laws
Demand:
--Higher opportunity cost of mother’s time – education;
--Higher cost of education and medical care for children.
(Becker said demand for higher quality children)
--Decreased need for farm work.
--Existence of government programs: Social Security and health
--Family planning programs, including and especially the availability
of contraceptives (and abortion in some countries).
--Changing social norms about desirability of large family,
male/female children, and use of contraceptives.
Larry Summers on Education of Young Women
In 1992, Larry Summers, then chief economist of the World Bank
[later US Secretary of Treasury, and President of Harvard], argued
that giving 100 girls one additional year of primary education would
prevent 60 infant deaths and 3 maternal deaths, while averting some
500 births. This would have cost $30,000 for 100 girls, thus the
social benefits alone of increased education of girls is more than
sufficient to cover its costs—even before considering the added
earnings power of this education.
(Stephen C. Smith Case Studies in Economic Development)
Figure 4.4 p. 79 (R&W). Changes in Fertility: Morocco
Figure 4.5 p. 79 (R&W) Total Fertility and Education:
Morocco, Palestine and Egypt
Standard story: higher education, lower fertility.
Government Policy Orientations
Table 4.3 p. 82 (R&W). Policy on Fertility Level, MENA Countries.
Arab government policies on fertility and access to
contraceptives
Source: Faour (1989)
Schematic Illustration of the “Proximate” Causes of
the Decline in Egyptian Fertility
Suggests that the
most important cause
of the decline in
fertility is the use of
contraceptive methods
Source: Robinson and El-Zanaty (2006) The Demographic Revolution in Modern Egypt
Contraceptive Use by Region:
% of Women 15-49 Years Old
90
80
Middle East & North
Africa (all income
levels)
East Asia & Pacific (all
income levels)
70
60
50
Latin America &
Caribbean (all income
levels)
South Asia
40
30
20
Sub-Saharan Africa (all
income levels)
10
High income: OECD
0
1990
Source: WDI
2000
The percentage of women who are practicing, or whose
sexual partners are practicing, any form of contraception
Contraceptive Prevalence (% Women 15-49)
100
10
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Algeria
Bahrain
Egypt, Arab Rep.
Iran, Islamic Rep.
Iraq
Israel
Jordan
Kuwait
Lebanon
Libya
Morocco
Oman
Qatar
Saudi Arabia
Syrian Arab Republic
Tunisia
Turkey
United Arab Emirates
West Bank and Gaza
Yemen, Rep.
Contraceptive prevalence rate is the percentage of women who are practicing, or whose sexual
partners are practicing, any form of contraception.
It is usually measured for married women ages 15-49 only. (Source: WDI)
Contraceptive Use in Tunisia and Turkey
Decomposition of Change in Fertility Rate p. 51
Source: World Bank (2004) Unlocking the Employment Potential in the MENA page 51
Source: Faour (1989)
Regression Results
The 1994 Cairo Population Conference
• Vatican and certain Muslim countries
agreed on opposing the position in favor of
women’s rights, family planning, and
abortion, as well as neo-Malthusian alarms.
• Compromise was to emphasize women’s
status inside the family, downplay Malthus,
while separating abortion from family
planning.
Source: Bowen, “Abortion, Islam, and the 1994 Cairo Population
Conference,” IJMES May, 1997
EgyptDemog.pdf
The next few slides come from the following source.
Source: “Egypt 1995: Results From the
Demographic and Health Survey,” Studies in
Family Planning Vol. 28#3, 1997
Egypt
Fertility differentials
Source: “Egypt 1995: Results From the Demographic and Health Survey,” Studies in Family Planning Vol. 28#
Egypt
Contraceptive prevalence
Egypt
Contraceptive use among married women
Source: “Egypt 1995: Results From the Demographic and Health Survey,” Studies in Family
Planning Vol. 28#3, 1997
Egypt
Contraceptive Prevalence, by age and number of
living children
Source: “Egypt 1995: Results From the Demographic and Health Survey,” Studies in Family Planning Vol. 28#
Egypt
Desire to stop childbearing
Source: “Egypt 1995: Results From the Demographic and Health Survey,” Studies in Family Planning Vol. 28#3
Egypt:
Percentage Distribution of
contraceptive users, by source of supply
Demographic Data for Jordan
Jordan: Fertility Differentials
Jordan: Contraceptive Use Differentials
Jordan: Contraceptive prevalence, by age and number of
children
Distribution of Modern Methods, by source of Jordan
supply
Demographic Data for Syria
Syria: Fertility by residence and education
Demographic Data on Lebanon
Studies in Family Planning, June 2001
Lebanon: Fertility Trends
Source: Studies in Family Planning, June 2001
Lebanon: Fertility Differentials
Source: Studies in Family Planning, June 2001
Lebanon: Current Contraceptive Use
Source: Studies in Family Planning, June 2001
Lebanon: Sources of Supply for Modern Contraceptives
Source: Studies in Family Planning, June 2001
Lebanon: Knowledge of Contraceptive Methods
Source: Studies in Family Planning, June 2001
Detailed data on Demographic Variable for Turkey
Fix this
Turkey: Fertility
Differentials, 1992
Turkey Fertility differentials, 1992
Turkey
Turkey Contraceptive prevalence differentials
Turkey
Turkey Knowledge and use of contraceptives
Family Planning in Iran
World Bank on Iranian Family Planning
Source: World Bank Unlocking the Employment Potential of the MENA, p. 52
Population policy in Iran
Studies in Family Planning, March 2000. First author is an anthropologist
in Montreal; second is Adviser to Ministry of Public Health in Tehran
The New York Times July 27, 2010
Iran’s Leader Introduces Plan to Encourage Population Growth by Paying
Families
TEHRAN (AP) — President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad inaugurated a new policy on
Tuesday to encourage population growth, dismissing decades of internationally
acclaimed family planning in Iran as ungodly and a Western import.
The new government effort will pay families for every new child and deposit money
into the newborns’ bank accounts until they reach 18, Mr. Ahmadinejad said. The
program effectively rolled back years of efforts to strengthen the economy by reducing
population growth.
Those who raise the idea of family planning “are thinking in the realm of the secular
world,” Mr. Ahmadinejad said during a ceremony at which he presented the new
policy. The plan is part of his previously stated desire to increase Iran’s population,
estimated at more than 70 million. He has previously said Iran could support as many
as 150 million people.
The program is expected to be especially attractive to lower-income
people, who formed the backbone of Mr. Ahmadinejad’s support in the
presidential elections in 2005 and 2009.
Iranian roadside billboards promote large families
The Telegraph (U.K. Dec. 9, 2013)
Iranian motorists are experiencing the novelty of being advised to have large
families as part of a state-backed programme aimed at replacing birth control
policies with a baby boom
Iran: Age Distribution, 1986-2020
Source: chapter by Salehi-Isfahani, in Katouzian and Shahidi (eds.) Iran in the 21st Century
Family Planning Programs in Egypt
Egypt: Growth of Health Infrastructure 1940-1995
Source: Robinson and El-Zanaty (2006) The Demographic Revolution in Modern Egypt
Donor Assistance to the Egyptian Family Program
Source: Robinson and El-Zanaty (2006) The Demographic Revolution in Modern Egypt
Egypt: Family Planning Poster
Source: Kamran
Asdar Ali (1997)
Another poster
Source: Kamran Asdar Ali (1997)
Egypt’s Birthrate Rises
as Population Control
Policies Vanish
Egyptian women talked with a volunteer
at a health clinic in Cairo about
contraceptive options
.President Mohamed Morsi remains silent about the future of the family planning
programs put in place by the government of former President Hosni Mubarak, as the
country's birthrate surges to a 20-year high.
Officials have dropped the awareness campaigns of the past, in an early indication of
how the Islamist leadership is approaching social policy in the most populous Arab
state.
New York Times, May 2, 2013
Salehi-Isfahani on Fertility in Iran
Source: D. Salehi-Isfahani “Familty Planning and Rural Fertility Decline In Iran: A Study in Program
Decline in Fertility: Iran & Turkey
Source: D. Salehi-Isfahani “Familty Planning and Rural Fertility Decline In Iran:
A Study in Program Evaluation”
Total Fertility Rates in LDCs p. 48
Source: World Bank (2004) Unlocking the Employment Potential in the MENA page 48
Fertility Rate, Regional Averages.
Births/woman
Fertility: Regional Aggregates (WDI)
8
7
Middle East & North
Africa
6
High income: OECD
5
East Asia & Pacific
4
3
Latin America &
Caribbean
2
South Asia
1
0
1960
Sub-Saharan Africa
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Fertility Rate, Births/Woman
Fertility Rates: Countries
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1960
1970
Source: WDI data
1980
1990
2000
2010
Algeria
Bahrain
Egypt, Arab Rep.
Iran, Islamic Rep.
Iraq
Jordan
Kuwait
Lebanon
Libya
Morocco
Oman
Qatar
Saudi Arabia
Syrian Arab Republic
Tunisia
Turkey
United Arab Emirates
West Bank and Gaza
Yemen, Rep.
Contraceptive prevalence rates by program effort
and socio-economic setting
Source: Faour (1989) p. 269
Faour’s comment on population education (p. 260)
Arab countries/Islam and abortion
Source: Faour (1989) p. 260
Arab countries and sterilization
Non-Nationals as Share of Labor Force
Source: World Bank (2004) Unlocking Employment
Link to Individual Country Contraception data
Source: WDI, listed in
http://www-personal.umd.umich.edu/~mtwomey/econhelp/344files/R-o-WFert.xls
Contraceptive Prevalence (% Women 15-49)
100
East Asia & Pacific
(all income levels)
High income: OECD
Latin America &
Caribbean (all
income levels)
Middle East & North
Africa (all income
levels)
South Asia
10
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Contraceptive prevalence rate is the percentage of women who are practicing, or
whose sexual partners are practicing, any form of contraception.
It is usually measured for married women ages 15-49 only.
Infant Mortality, by Regions
1,000
(semi-log graph)
Middle East &
North Africa (all
income levels)
100
Middle East &
North Africa (all
income levels)
East Asia &
Pacific
(developing only)
Latin America &
Caribbean (all
income levels)
OECD members
180
East Asia &
Pacific
(developing
only)
Latin America &
Caribbean (all
income levels)
160
OECD members
60
140
120
100
80
40
10
South Asia
South Asia
20
0
1
1960
Sub-Saharan
Africa (all
income levels)
1980
1960
1980
2000
Source: WDI
2000
Sub-Saharan
Africa (all income
levels)
Infant Mortality
300
Algeria
Bahrain
Egypt, Arab Rep.
250
Iran, Islamic Rep.
Iraq
Israel
200
Jordan
Kuwait
Lebanon
Libya
150
Morocco
Oman
Qatar
100
Saudi Arabia
Syrian Arab Republic
Tunisia
50
Turkey
United Arab Emirates
West Bank and Gaza
0
1960
Source: WDI
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Yemen, Rep.