Transcript URBAN DYNAMICS AND REAL-ESTATE SPECULATION: THE …

IGU Canterbury Meeting
Urban Geography Commission
Emerging Urban Transformations
Canterbury Christ Church University
August 14-20, 2011
URBAN DYNAMICS AND REAL-ESTATE SPECULATION: THE
IMPACT ON THE URBAN AREAS OF THE ATLANTIC AXIS
(GALICIA,SPAIN).
Alejandro López-González
University of Leon (Spain)
[email protected]
Maria-José Piñeira-Mantiñán
University of Santiago de Compostela (Spain)
[email protected]
Project: System of indicators for the analysis of metropolitan and urban dynamics
in Spain at the beginning of XXI Century.
Ministry of Science and Technology (CSO2010-16298)
The context in Spain
 Real estate market =one of the principal vehicles of capital
accumulation of neoliberal town planning.
 1997-2006 : 5.5 millions of houses.
 Annual ratio during ten years of 13.3 houses for every 1,000
inhabitants.
 Autonomous Regions: Laws by the System of Land and
Urban Arrangement, & Territorial Plans.
 Plans are useless
 The most important: benefits generated by construction
activity.
The resoult...
 In the background:
 Town-planning politics: entire space was building land. In
Galicia: rural building land .
 Companies are those who control and use the public
administrations for their own benefit.
 The building land was bought by financial institutions.
 The healthy economic situation of the country and low interest
rates encouraged the purchase of apartments by the population.
 Important changes in infrastructure, transport, and information
technologies and communication.
 Citizens have not taken part in the design of the city.
Housing Market in Galicia
Percentage of stock over total stock by Autonomous Community
Autonomous Community
Housing Stock (%)
Valencia Community
19,35
Andalucia
16,33
Catalonia
15,03
Castilla-La Mancha
7,83
Madrid
7,43
Canarias Islands
5,95
Galicia
5,71
Murcia
4,39
Aragon
2,68
Castilla and Leon
2,46
Baleares Islands
2,44
Vasc Country
1,82
Asturias
1,71
Rioja
1,38
Navarra
0,77
Extremadura
0,53
Cantabria
0,42
Method & Sources

Prices: values of use and
change
 Quantities: three series of
flow information
 Housing censuses
 Work project starts-Home visas.
 Work licenses
 Housing transactions
Main urban cities
Small cities
Main High
Capacity Roads
 There are delays that determine the supply and demand analysis
T: number of transactions
in a municipality i
L: housings as a consequence of work licenses granted
and in one year t
V: Home Visas
K: the delays (that can acquire the value 0 if both series are simultaneous, 1 if the
explanatory variable precedes by one year the explained one and 2 if the delay is two
years)
Relation Licenses-Transactions. R2 (2004-2010):
0.379-0.741 when K=0
0.309-0.823 when K=1
0.525-0.915 when K=2
Relation Licenses-Work project Starts. R2 (2002-2010):
0.631-0.870 when K=0
0.435-0.852 when K=1
0.201-0.742 when K=2
The dynamism of the urban areas in
the Atlantic Axis
Evolution of housing starts, work licenses and housing transactions
Efficiency of the housing market
T: housing transactions during the current year
L: the work licenses conceded two years ago.
The results are always higher than 0, reaching a situation of equilibrium when
the efficiency rate is equal to 1
IGU Canterbury Meeting
Urban Geography Commission
Emerging Urban Transformations
Canterbury Christ Church University
August 14-20, 2011
Thank You
(…)The streets, named names of painters,
are littered with gleaming banks where
no one sits down and traffic signals that
require yield.Who? The only sign of life
are ubiquitous posters for sale.They hang
on every front and has not put the
builder, but their buyers (…)