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The Henley Centre
Drivers affecting levels of participation in
sport and physical activity
Prepared for Regional Drivers workshops, April-May, 2003
Andrew Curry
Robert Stanier
Marie Lewis
Drivers for first session (22)
 Demographics
- Increasingly affluent society
- Polarisation of income
- Ageing population
- “Agelessness”
- Growing Ethnic mix
- Household fragmentation
- Investment in family life
- Paedophile Hysteria
- Parents know where their
children are
- Death of traditional
communities
 Trends in work
- Decline in manufacturing
- Long hours
- Work-life balance
- Weekend working
- Retiring later in the day
- Less home-working more
commuting
 Time and Energy Use
- Time Squeeze
- The Last Minute Society
- All played out: too tired
 Media Issues
- A connected society
- The Niagara of media supply
- Sport exposure
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Drivers for second session (22)
 Health and Fitness
- The fitness desire
- Fat people expanding
- Diet concerns
- Physical Health: persistent
allergies and conditions
- Mental Health: increasingly
strained
- Search for wellbeing
- High way to more drugs
 Consumer Trends
- The Litigious Society
- It won’t be you!
- “Professionalisation” of voluntary
work
 Local Spending and Facilities
- Public expenditure on sport
declines
- All fall down?
-
Hitting the Targets
Local Authorities trim their budgets
Drowning in paperwork
New regeneration, new funding
 Education
- Sport; less time in schools
- Disappearing playing fields
- Expansion of higher education
 Other leisure offers get better
 Transport
- More cars to get there but more
congestion on the way
- Greener transport?
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Drivers for 1st Session
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Demographic trends
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Increasingly affluent society
 Disposable incomes have been
rising - We are 70% better off
than we were in 1979
 Society has moved away from
basic needs and now looks to
lifestyle choices and leisure
experiences to feel fulfilled
- We are prepared to spend
more on leisure
170
160
Prices
(Index
1990
= 100)
Leisure
services
All services
150
140
All goods
130
120
 A significant risk factor: consumer
borrowing has tripled in the last 110
10 years (up to £141,715m in
100
2001)
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00
Implication for sports participation: Sport should benefit from the move to “the
experience economy”
Source (consumer expenditure): ONS
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Polarisation of income
 Relatively, the rich are getting richer,
the poor poorer
% share of total income by household
Bottom 10%
 Top managers pay rises well in excess
of the average
1979 4.4
 Incomes rising faster in better off
areas
1990
3.2
1996
3.5
2010
3.0
 The rich likely to get richer over the
next two decades due to new skills in
the new economy and more incentive
plans, share options & fringe benefits
Implication for sports participation:
Increasing equity in participation from
high to low income groups will become
more difficult
10
Source: ONS, Households Below Average Income; The Henley Centre
5
Top 10%
20
25
24
30
0
5
10
15
20
25
%
30
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Ageing population
 Rapid growth of the older population
coupled with a shrinkage of the
younger and working population
 Greater longevity of life
- From 1996 to 2006 there will have
been a 28% rise in the number of
people who are 55+
 Given the share crisis, the pensioners
of tomorrow will be less rich
Implication for sports
participation: Fewer over 50s
take part in physical activity,
therefore this militates against an
increase in sporting activity
Source: Government Actuary
Participated on at least one occasion
in the last 4 weeks excluding walking
90
1987
1993
1996
80
70
60
50
%
40
30
20
10
0
16-19 20-24 25-29 30-44 45-59 60-69 70+
Source: GHS 1987, 1993, 1996
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“Agelessness”
 Though chronologically older,
attitudinally many older people
“act young”
- This is reflected in their leisure
activities; from the television
programmes they watch, to
their frequency of dining out
 The older population feel young
with regard to their fitness
Implication for sports participation:
Feelings of agelessness coupled
with the higher disposable income
of the current over-50s could prove
beneficial to participation in
physical activity
Source: PCC 2001 w1
‘People would say I am younger than I
am from the following…’
%
60
50
My personal fitness
Holidays I take
Music I listen to
40
30
20
10
0
15-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65-74
75+
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Growing ethnic mix
 6.4 million people from ethnic minority
backgrounds in England
 England has proportionally more people
from ethnic minorities than the rest of the
UK
- 2001 census identifies some areas in
which ethnic population is majority for
first time, e.g. Newham, Brent
 Population growth to 2025 predicted to
come primarily through immigration
Participation in at least 1 physical activity
in last 4 weeks
60
55
50
46
46
41
40
30
37
25
20
10
Implication for sports participation:
Ethnic minority cultures are steadily
growing as a proportion of Sport
England’s target market
Source: ONS 2002 Figures for England
0
White
Indian
Other
Black
Total
Pakistani/
population
Bangladeshi
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Household fragmentation
 Decrease in traditional households
 From 1971 to 1996, married couple
households fell from 11.2m to 10.2m.
Predicted to fall to 9.4m in 2011
 Single person households will
increase from 30% of total
households in 2001 to 33% in 2011
 Multi-person households predicted to
increase by over 30% from ‘96 to
2011
Implication for sports
participation: More single person
households will create a big
demand for out of home leisure
that could be tapped
Source: Office of Population Censuses and Surveys 2001
Number of households and
average household size, 1951-2001
Household size
Households (m)
3.5
25
3.0
20
2.5
2.0
15
1.5
10
1.0
5
0.5
0.0
0
1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001
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Investment in family life
 The family allegedly in crisis
- media coverage of erosion of
traditional values and structures
- rising divorce rates, second
marriages, single parent families
 But family still top goal for many
people, both emotionally and
economically
Implication for sports
participation: Family
fragmentation combined with
family pride leads to tensions that
may drive or inhibit participation
% Regard as important sources of pride
Political allegiance
22
My class
31
My car
52
59
Sort of job I do
71
My Nationality
Physical appearance
81
Skills/knowledge I have
83
90
My health/fitness
94
My Family
0
Source: The Henley Centre, British Social Attitudes 2001
20
40
60
80 100
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Paedophile hysteria
 The Paulsgrove riots of 2000
were symptomatic of an
underlying fear in society
 Sports coaches, especially men
in sports involving physical
contact, are vulnerable to
accusations
 Some initiatives promoting men
in childcare may mitigate this
slightly
Implication for sports
participation: Fewer volunteers
are prepared to get involved in
coaching youngsters because of
the increased bureaucracy and
fears of false accusations
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Parents are increasingly expected to know
where their children are
 The legacy of Jamie Bulger is very
powerful despite the fact that it was:
- An isolated case
- Ten years ago
Children today get
less exercise because
parents are afraid to
let them go out alone
 Busier roads create more danger for
vulnerable road users (especially
children).
Implication for sports participation:
Fewer children will participate in
sporting activity, independent of adults,
and informal participation will suffer
Source: MORI survey of adults for Nestle 2000
disagree
agree
%
0
20
40
60
80
100
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Death of traditional communities
Your partner/ spouse
2.79 People with the same hobbies
/ interests as you
2.78
Your parents
2.52
People who watch the same TV
programmes as you
Implication for sports
participation: People will still want
to use clubs to socialise, but
locality will be less significant.
2.47
People you work with
2.40
People the same age as you
1.93
Your neighbours
Less in common
 Increased mobility and
connectivity has allowed us to
‘elect’ our communities
3.44
More in common
 Communities that are centred
around interests have overtaken
those based around geographical
areas
“How much do you have in common
with the following?”
4 = a lot 1 = virtually nothing
Source: The Henley Centre, Planning for Consumer Change 2001
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Trends in work
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Less manufacturing in the labour force
 An increasing percentage of jobs
are in sectors with typically little
physical activity
- 35% decline in employees
working in manufacturing
since 1985
- 30% increase in employees
working in services since
1985
Physical activity contributions (average
hours per week), 1998, England
Housework
9%
7%
8%
64%
Implication for “sports”
participation: Decline of
manufacturing likely to mean less
physical activity in work time
DIY/
Gardening
Sport
12%
Walking
Occupation*
* Work hours from International Labour Office (40.2hrs/wk @1998)
Source: The Work Foundation ‘Working Capital’, ONS 2001 Source: Health Survey for England 1998
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Long hours
 Although the average number of
working hours has stabilised since
the nineties, the ‘leisure society’
seems far from arriving
- The UK works longer hours than
other European countries
Av. weekly working hours, f-t workers
Hours
1983
1999
43.6
44
42.3
42
40.9
40.1
40
39.2
38.5
Implication for sports
participation: Long working
hours leave less time for leisure
and make people more tired –
likely to hinder sports
participation
Source: Labour Force Surveys, Eurostat, ONS 2000,
38.6 38.4
38
36
0
UK
Germany
Italy
Belgium
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Dissatisfaction with work-life balance
 Overall job satisfaction has declined
by 8% in the last decade
 The areas in which we are
particularly dissatisfied about appear
to be centred around work-life
balance:
- The number of hours worked
- The amount of work
% who are satisfied
%
1992 2000
70
60
50
54
52
50
45
44
41
40
43
39 39
37
31
30
24
23
22
20
Implication for sports participation:
The underlying desire for a balance
to working hours could support
greater sports participation
10
0
Hours
Amount
The work
itself Varietyworked Job of work
Overall
Training
security
work
Source: Labour Force Surveys, Eurostat, ONS 2000, PSI/ LSE ‘Working in Britain’ 2000
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Weekend working on the rise
 More parents are working at times
traditionally associated with ‘family
leisure time’
 The percentage of UK employees
that sometimes or always work at
weekends is increasing:
- 57% work Saturdays
- 37% work Sundays
- This is linked to the rise of the
leisure/service industries
Implication for sports participation:
Work is making inroads into the
traditional weekly times for sports
participation
“34% of families
now contain a parent
that works at
weekends, this is
expected to double
by 2007”
Source: The Observer, March 2003,The Henley Centre PCC 2001
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Retiring later in the day
 Government reaction to adapt to
demographic change and high dependency
ratios supports later retirement
- “We want to move away from the idea of
a fixed age at which people must stop
working.” Andrew Smith, Work and
Pensions Secretary
 Consumer reaction to low stock market is to
keep working
 Pension fund shortfalls will mean there is
pressure on individuals to work longer
Implication for sports
participation: The ageing
population may have less time
on their hands for participation
Source: Guardian 15/03/03, National Association of Pension Funds 2002
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Less home-working and more commuting
% working
 The time taken travelling to and from from home
work is likely to remain high:
30
- Road congestion and public
transport weakness have meant
24
25
22
time per journey has increased
for commuters
20
- The average daily commute rose
15
from 12.1km in 1992 to 13.1km in
1999
 Home working has not increased
much, despite the hype
Implication for sports participation:
Commuting is eating into potential
‘sports time’
10
1992
2000
11 11
7
5
6
7
5
0
Total
Full time 1-3 days
Source: Henley Centre Planning for Consumer Change, 2000, DETR, 2000
Less
frequently
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Time and Energy Use
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Time squeeze: where does the time come from
for additional participation in sport?
 Consumers lead
increasingly
busy lives
Hours per week spent on activities:
1.21.2
1.61.3
Travel
1.8
4.5
Eating/drinking in
19.7
Eating/drinking out
0.5
Implication for
sports
participation:
The
competition for20.3
consumers’
time is so
strong that
sport cannot
expect a
sudden
increase
Chores
Shopping
Childcare (of own children)
Listening to radio
Watching TV
Cinema
Reading
10.6
Sporting activities
Other hobbies and games
Pet care
PC/Internet
4.0
9.1
3.2
Source: Office of National Statistics – Time Use Survey 2001
3.7
Telephone
2.4
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The last minute society – the rise of liquid life
 Consumers are used to being
able to do things at the last
minute
- Cashpoints instead of banks
- Forecast 600% growth of 24
hour Tesco stores from 2002
to 2003
 Mobile phones facilitate last
minute planning
- close to 80% of consumers
own a mobile phone
Implication for sports participation:
Consumers will demand instant
access to facilities and will not want to
book ahead: team sports (needing
organisation) will function less well
than individual sports
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All played out: too tired
 The British feel more
exhausted than most
other nations
 Relatively long
working hours
combined with a
reluctance to
outsource tasks mean
we are tired
60
50
50
% agree: “I am so tired in the
evenings, I often don't have the
energy to do much”
45
43
38
40
37
34
30
20
10
Implication for sports
participation: Participation
0
activities continue to
struggle to counter
perceived lack of energy
Italy
Source: The Henley Centre, PCC 2002 (Europe), 2001 (US)
UK
Spain Germany USA
France
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Media Issues
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A connected society
 Consumers, especially
young consumers, are
connected wherever they
are
- 80% use a mobile
- 45% use PC internet
 Strong potential and current
sports club applications
Implication for sports
participation: Participation
amongst the connected society
could increase, though this may
leave behind older and less
affluent consumers
Source: The Henley Centre – PCC 2002
70
% agreeing “I like to be contactable
on my mobile phone all of the time”
61
60
53
50
41
40
32
30
21
20
11
10
0
15-24
25-34 35-44
45-54 55-64
65+
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The Niagara of media supply
 Colossal growth in media supply
- All media forms are increasing
- New media forms are being created
 Behaviour has changed only slightly
- Total time spent on media by
consumers has only slightly increased
– more media consumed through
‘multi-tasking’
Magazine titles
1988/89 2001
2,042 3,174
Singles released
3,932
Albums released
8,752 21,739
Cinema screens (UK)
1,559
2,825
Commercial radio channels60
244
CD-ROM titles
Implication for sports participation:
More time will be spent on media use
rather than physical activity, although
interactive population could be
engaged through applications
Source: The Henley Centre; COMMET model
5,047
390 35,000
Web pages
0
2bn+
TV channels
4
123+
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Sport exposure
 People who have an interest in sport in
the media are more likely to participate
%
 In an average daily newspaper 14% of
the content is devoted to sports coverage
50
60
 Of the total units of Computer/games
console games sold last year in the UK,
31% were sports orientated
40
 On average 20% of TV shown at
weekends during the day is sports
orientated
20
Implication for sports participation:
Opportunity to convert interest and
widespread media coverage of sport into
participation
0
Source: BMRB TGI 2002, TIGA 2002
Percent who ‘play sport regularly’
51
41
44
30
10
Total
population
Those who
like to watch
sport on TV
Those who like
to read about
sport in the
papers
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Drivers for 2nd Session
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Health and Fitness
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The fitness desire
 Gym memberships have
increased by more than 50%
over the last 6 years
- £1.3bn spent on gyms in the
UK every year
- 15% of people belong to a
gym or health club…7% of
people actually visit it
regularly
 59% of people in the UK agree
‘what I want most is to look
attractive’
Club memberships in the UK
%
12
10
10
11
8
6
5
4
3
2
0
0.4
0.4
1
1
Riding
Sailing
Golf
Gym Sports club
club Athletics club Angling club Health
(rugby/foot
club
club
club
ball/tennis/
squash etc)
Implication for sports participation: More affluent consumers are increasingly
prepared to pay to take physical exercise and improve well-being and fitness
Source: National Audit Office;
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Fat people expanding
 Obesity has tripled in the past 20
years
- One adult in 5 is clinically obese,
& more than half are overweight
- One child in 10 is an obese child
 Despite eating less than our
ancestors, we expend far fewer
calories than just a few decades
ago, leading to problems with
obesity
- Because of labour-saving
appliances even household
chores burn fewer calories than
they did 20 years ago
Trend in obesity amongst men and women
(% BMI>30)
30
men
forecast
women
25
20
15
10
5
0
1980
1986
1993
1996
1998
2005 2010
Implication for sports participation: Obesity creates a vicious circle in which
weight reduces willingness and capacity to take exercise
Source: National Audit Office;
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Diet concerns
 Consumers generally eat more
unhealthily than they would like to
- polarisation between social grades
 The average Briton consumes 65lb of
sugar a year
 Type II diabetes is directly linked to
high sugar diet and lack of exercise
- More than 1.4 million Britons are
known to have diabetes, and it is
thought that an equal number
remain undiagnosed
 High concern for Britain’s obese
children – 360 000 are at risk from type
II diabetes
Projected increase of type II diabetes
in next seven years
(millions)
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0
2003
2010
Implication for sports participation: Difficulty for less affluent consumers in
obtaining healthy foods will impede sports participation in those groups
Source: Study - University of Bristol - 2002
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Physical health
 Asthma affects over 3m people in the
UK, half of whom are children
- Incidences of childhood asthma
have doubled over last decade
 Over the age of 50, 1 in 3 Women & 1
in 12 men will suffer from osteoporosis
 Physical activity key in reducing the
chances of developing osteoporosis
- In particular, vigorous physical
activity: 1/3 men take part in
vigorous physical activities
compared with only 1/5 of women
Projected increase of hip fractures in
European women over 65
(millions)
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1990
2025
2050
Implication for sports participation: A variety of ailments and injuries can reduce
participation - but education on health impact of exercise could counter this
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Source: Office of National Statistics 1998 – (Vigorous exercise where energy cost =7.5cal/min), Eurostat 1998© The Henley Centre Ltd 2003. All rights reserved
Mental health
 Physical exercise is known to have a
positive impact on mental health
 Mental illness is growing sharply,
especially amongst the young
- Young women twice as likely to
suffer from mental illness than
young men
- Approximately 20,000 suicide
attempts made by young people in
the UK every year
% suffering from mental illness
Males
25
Females
21
19
20
15
12
10
7
5
Implication for sports participation:
Mental illness both derives from and
helps to perpetuate lack of exercise.
Source: ONS 2000; BYC 2000; NYA 2002
0
16-19
20-24
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The search for wellbeing
 For an increasing number of consumers
‘health’ no longer refers just to lack of
illness
- ‘Wellbeing’ encompasses feelings
about the mind, body, spirituality,
environment and relationships
 Routes to wellbeing are many and varied
they include: diet, supplements, beauty
therapies, exercise
 People show a willingness to change their
lifestyle to achieve wellbeing
Implication for sports participation:
Sport could potentially occupy a strong
position in the wellbeing spectrum
Source: The Henley Centre, PCC 1999-2002
% who would like to change:
1999
%
2002
40
37
34
35
30
30
25
25
22
28
24 25
20
15
10
5
0
Eating more The way Exercise Your weight
healthily you look you do
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Overall, the high way to more drugs
% agree ‘Cannabis should be legalised’
 Opposition to the legalisation of cannabis,
a view held by 75% of Britons in 1983,
70
has fallen to 46% today
Cohort effect
60
 Approx. 3m people spend over £6.6bn a
year on illegal drugs in UK
- Drug taking is highest amongst youth
 Recent reclassification of cannabis as a
class C drug (54% approved of decision)
 Society is getting more liberalised about
drug taking with a limited conservative
backlash
50
42
44
40
34
30
33
25
18
20
10
0
16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64
65+
Implication for sports participation: Sporting ethos could become out of step with
public opinion on drug-taking, forcing people to choose between extremes
Source: The Henley Centre; Guardian/ICM poll Nov 2001; Home Office, British Crime Survey
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Consumer Trends
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Litigious society
NHS negligence payouts (£ million)
 Welsh Rugby Union currently
being sued over failure of
referee David Evans to stop a
scrummage collapsing
400
386
£m
300
 In general, Britons are
more likely to complain
than they were:
- Blame culture
Implication for sports participation:
Fewer volunteers are prepared to
volunteer. Governing body initiatives
lose out to the need to spend on
payouts
200
107
50
100
11
0
1996/97
Source: Handling clinical negligence claims in England-Comptroller & Auditor General
1997/98
1998/99
1999/2000
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It won’t be you!
 Consumers are increasingly
disenchanted with the Lottery
Annual Sales,
£m
6000
 This follows the trend seen
internationally
5800
National Lottery Sales
5600
5400
 Legislative restrictions and poor
PR mean that an increase is
unlikely
 Sport England grants likely to
continue to be affected
5200
5000
4800
4600
4400
4200
Implication for sports participation:
The decline in Lottery money will
affect a number of sports
participation projects, who may be
dependent on it
4000
1997-8
1998-9 1999-2000 2000-01
2001-02
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“Professionalisation” of voluntary work
 Volunteer base increasingly:
-
-
-
needs to have more specific skills and
qualifications e.g. proof of coaching
competence, skills to apply for funding
(different from sport skills)
wants to be rewarded for their work
(not necessarily with money)
want it to be easier: extra bureaucracy
arrives when “time squeeze” is
pressuring them
Implication for sports participation:
The quality of participation may rise,
because of improved organisation, but
some volunteers may be put off by the
extra work required, when “time
squeeze” is causing pressure
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Local Spending and Facilities
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Public expenditure on sport declines
 Expenditure by local authorities
has fallen from £18.13 per head
in 1998 to £12.04 in 2002
 The fall is largely because the
decrease in lottery funding
 The core exchequer contribution
has stayed relatively constant –
currently at £34.7 million for
2002/03
Net expenditure by Local Authorities on
Sport and Recreation, England
£m
1,000
900
894
893
893
800
700
617
603
2001/02
2002/03
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1998/99
1999/00
2000/01
Implication for sports participation: Lack of public provision will militate against
increased participation, especially amongst low income groups
Source: Source: Office for National Statistics 1992-2002
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All fall down?
 The reform of local councils in
the early 70s has resulted in a
large stock of leisure facilities
that are now 30 years old
 The cost of upgrading is rising,
but local authorities are
trimming council budgets
- Relatively few new facilities
Age of sports facilities in England
No.
centres
300
244
250
200
177
150
101
100
Implication for sports
participation: As facilities
become rundown and
unattractive, participation will
decline
50
50
43
14
7
0
0-10
11-20 21-30 31-40 41-50 51-60 60+
Source: ‘Condition and Refurbishment of Public Sector Sports Facilities 2002’ - Sport England
Age of centre (years)
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Hitting the targets
 The government increasingly
makes funding dependent on
measurable targets
 Since what gets measured is
what gets delivered, then sport
participation will be passed over
unless it is used as a specific
performance measurement
within government
Implication for sports participation:
Participation in sport will only get resource
spent on it if it is a specific target in a range
of departments
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Local authorities trim their budgets
 Relatively few factors
relating to leisure services
on current Comprehensive
Performance Assessments
 Leisure is not a Statutory
requirement for local
councils
 Local Authorities focus can
be elsewhere, despite
ageing leisure facilities
Implication for sports participation: Unless
improving facilities becomes a measurable
target, opportunities for participation will
decline
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Drowning in paperwork
 2001: government grants potential
charitable status to sports clubs
 However, there are practical
difficulties:
- "It can cost anything up to £3,000
to register as a charity and sports
clubs do not have this money.“
(Nigel Hook, CCPR)
Implication for sports participation:
Clubs will be required to have more
efficient bureaucratic capability to
get fiscal benefits, but some will be
put off by the extra workload
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New regeneration, new funding
 Funding is increasingly distributed
through Regional Development
Agencies
 Increasing emphasis on social
equality creates funding e.g.
Neighbourhood Renewal Fund, that
sport can play a part in
Implication for sports participation:
Participation may be supported by
new funding, so long as the
regenerative case is established
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Education
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Sport has less time devoted to it in schools
 Very few primary school teachers
are trained in P.E.
- The Literacy and Numeracy
hours have limited the amount of
time spent in non-core activities
 Failure to recover the extracurricular time spent pre-teacher
strikes in the 1980s
 Less time was spent on PE in
primary and secondary schools in
2002 than in 1994, despite some
recovery since 1999
Implication for sports participation:
fewer children will grow up with a
background in sport on which to
participate later
Two hours or more in PE lessons
100
90
83
80
1994
1999
2002
66
70
61
60
46
% 50
40
32
20
32
29
30
36 34
33
21
11
10
0
Years
2-4
Years
5-6
Years
7-9
Years
10-11
Source: Young People and Sport in England 1994, 1999 and 2002
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Base: All pupils where teachers have provided information on time spent on PE (2002: 2,339, 1999: 2,591, 1994:
© The3,908)
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Disappearing playing fields
 The number of school playing fields which
have been approved for disposal has
topped the 200 mark. (DfES)
 The figures for planning applications
affecting school playing fields speak for
themselves. Over a three-year period, for
which stats are available, there has been
an increase of 75%.
 “This country cannot sustain such a
relentless onslaught on its recreation
space, in schools and elsewhere,”
- Elsa Davies, National Playing Fields
Association.
Source: National Playing Fields Association
Implication for sports
participation: Access for children
for grounds at school where they
can play formal and informal
sport is reduced and “sports
literacy” will be affected
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Expansion of higher education
 More students entering further / higher
education than ever before
- 100,000 in HE in 1950 vs. 1.7m in
2000
Number of university acceptances 1994-2001
 Increase in 16-18 year olds in further
education or training
- from 60% in 1986 to 76.1% in 2000
 Government target of 50% of under 30s
entering HE by 2005
- Although top-up fees will deter some,
some increase still likely
 Those who enter higher education, are
more likely to participate in sports whilst
studying & are subsequently more likely to
continue higher levels of participation in
adult life
000’s
400
358
350
300
271
330
339
1998
2000
296
250
200
150
100
50
0
1994
1996
2001
Implication for sports participation: A larger proportion of higher education
students will increase participation levels in sport
Source: UCAS
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Leisure overall
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Other leisure offers get better
 Non-sporting leisure venues are
working hard to improve their offers
to get consumers out of their homes
- Consumers’ expectations are
rising all the time
 Increasingly, sporting leisure
facilities, including pavilions, can
look shoddy in comparison
Implication for sports participation:
Participation may suffer unless
facilities are kept “up to the mark”
to attract consumers
Source: The Henley Centre photographs of ‘Tiger, Tiger’, Portsmouth
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Transport
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More cars to get there, but more congestion on
the way
 Increasing number of cars on the road % with driving licences
- 12m in 1975 vs 24m in 2000
- Increasingly households have more 90
than one car
80
- Gender imbalance in access to
69
70
cars is decreasing
 But more cars = more congestion
- 1 million working days were lost
due to traffic congestion in 2002
- New congestion policies will only
have localised effects
Implication for sports participation:
Easier to travel to sports facilities…
but takes longer to get there
Source: Traffic Master 2002
Men
Women
82
60
60
50
40
29
30
20
10
0
1975
2000
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Greener transport?
 A government white paper: New Deal for
Transport: Better for Everyone talks of
‘positive measures of offering a capped
general tax concession for commuting by
‘greener’ modes’
 The national cycling strategy aims to
increase the number of cycling journeys
fourfold by 2012
- It particularly concentrates on cycle
journeys to work – currently only 3%
of employees in England cycle to work
 But largely unsupported by political will
Implication for sports participation: If there is a shift away from car use it could
have a large impact on levels of physical activity – but it’s a big IF
Source: Department for Transport, Office for National Statistics 2001
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