The Impact of Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) on Technological Innovation and Policy. The Case of Poly(ethylene therephthalate) (PET)

Snezana Krstic

University of Belgrade Faculty of Technology and Metallurgy

Serbia

e-mail: [email protected]

Industry of polymer materials

Polymer resins, granulate Production sector Manufacturing sector Recovery sector Products –solids, films, fibers, … Scraps, flakes, chemicals, energy

Industry of polymer materials

Increasingly dynamic business sector

 Abut 100 million tons per year  Consumption rising steadily  Tailor-made materials meet most advanced technological requirements

Industry of polymer materials

Challenges

Global economic downturn related to petrochemical feedstock prices Environmental pressures Legislative measures Market fluctuations …..

Industry of polymer materials

Response to challanges

FTA

Future oriented technology analysis

to estimate market and industrial trends new applications environmental challenges …..

Economic forecast for polymer industry

 New investments in capacity  Ratio between production-manufacturing-recovery capacities  Economic incentives  Fast growing markets in Asia  Resin market trends – supply and demand  Sensitivity to energy cost fluctuations  Oil prices Upstream markets Downstream markets New applications Technological innovation

PET Poly(ethylene terephthalate)

 Food and packaging industry  Textile industry  Electronics  Automotive sector Excellent barrier properties Engineering material Relatively low price Good recyclability Mechanical (material melting) Chemical (chemical or thermal decomposition) Energy recovery (incineration)

PET Poly(ethylene terephthalate)

Rapid market growth

Forecasting PET market trends

1995

PET market growth

4 3 2 1 0 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 Forecasted Real Forecasted Real 2.48 million tons over 3.2 million tons

Forecasting PET market trends

a clear message

As much as we can expect growth of consumption, in reality it can be even higher

Large volume of waste Environmental impact

FTA impact on policy

Forecasts assessing increasing consumption and volume of waste Full landfills Environmental awareness on waste management Policy measures worldwide

EU policy related to polymer waste management

Several directives and proposals concerning: Packaging and packaging waste End-of-life vehicle (ELV) waste Electric and electronic equipment waste Waste landfilling

EU Directive on packaging and packaging waste (1994) Plastics

: Recovery 50 % Recycling 15% Germany – “manufacturer responsibility Austria – industry pays collection France – “shared responsibility Belgium – eco-tax Netherlands – all users pay ……… Various national management approaches to meet the targets New technologies, new capacities RESULT

Increased recovery and recycling rates

EU Directive on packaging and packaging waste (1994)

New challenge

Forecasted Forecasted Increasing consumption Stagnation in recycling rates With the same recovery capacity larger portion of waste for landfilling New tough proposal for the Directive Recovery 60 % Recycling 22.5 %

FTA impact on policy - USA

FDA – Food and drugs administration Focus on application of recycled materials for new bottles Toxicant not to exceed 0.5 ppb Technological innovation Product design Recycling processes

FTA impact on technological innovation

Forecasts concerning consumption and waste increase Innovations in recycling - Innovated technologies for mechanical and chemical recycling - Designing products more suitable for recycling - New applications for recycled materials Sustainability condition

FTA impact on technological innovation

Forecasts concerning market saturations Innovations for virgin products Better oxygen-barrier properties Hot filling Sophisticated product designs

FTA impact on technological innovation in various business environments

 Large petrochemical complexes – innovations related to chemical and thermal decomposition of material  Manufacturing companies – innovations related to savings in materials for bottle production  SMEs – innovations related to product design and new applications

Impact on developing countries

Raising environmental awareness Different pathways Rise in investments in capacities in various developing countries

PET New applic.

Market growth Production Summary Legislation FTA Recovery Manufacture Technol. innovation

Conclusions Economy

All dimension are crucial

Technology Social issues PET FTA Environment

Future advancement of FTA deeper understanding of qualitative information, their proper interpretation and integration into the process