Transcript The Impact of Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) on
The Impact of Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) on Technological Innovation and Policy. The Case of Poly(ethylene therephthalate) (PET)
Snezana Krstic
University of Belgrade Faculty of Technology and Metallurgy
Serbia
e-mail: [email protected]
Industry of polymer materials
Polymer resins, granulate Production sector Manufacturing sector Recovery sector Products –solids, films, fibers, … Scraps, flakes, chemicals, energy
Industry of polymer materials
Increasingly dynamic business sector
Abut 100 million tons per year Consumption rising steadily Tailor-made materials meet most advanced technological requirements
Industry of polymer materials
Challenges
Global economic downturn related to petrochemical feedstock prices Environmental pressures Legislative measures Market fluctuations …..
Industry of polymer materials
Response to challanges
FTA
Future oriented technology analysis
to estimate market and industrial trends new applications environmental challenges …..
Economic forecast for polymer industry
New investments in capacity Ratio between production-manufacturing-recovery capacities Economic incentives Fast growing markets in Asia Resin market trends – supply and demand Sensitivity to energy cost fluctuations Oil prices Upstream markets Downstream markets New applications Technological innovation
PET Poly(ethylene terephthalate)
Food and packaging industry Textile industry Electronics Automotive sector Excellent barrier properties Engineering material Relatively low price Good recyclability Mechanical (material melting) Chemical (chemical or thermal decomposition) Energy recovery (incineration)
PET Poly(ethylene terephthalate)
Rapid market growth
Forecasting PET market trends
1995
PET market growth
4 3 2 1 0 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 Forecasted Real Forecasted Real 2.48 million tons over 3.2 million tons
Forecasting PET market trends
a clear message
As much as we can expect growth of consumption, in reality it can be even higher
Large volume of waste Environmental impact
FTA impact on policy
Forecasts assessing increasing consumption and volume of waste Full landfills Environmental awareness on waste management Policy measures worldwide
EU policy related to polymer waste management
Several directives and proposals concerning: Packaging and packaging waste End-of-life vehicle (ELV) waste Electric and electronic equipment waste Waste landfilling
EU Directive on packaging and packaging waste (1994) Plastics
: Recovery 50 % Recycling 15% Germany – “manufacturer responsibility Austria – industry pays collection France – “shared responsibility Belgium – eco-tax Netherlands – all users pay ……… Various national management approaches to meet the targets New technologies, new capacities RESULT
Increased recovery and recycling rates
EU Directive on packaging and packaging waste (1994)
New challenge
Forecasted Forecasted Increasing consumption Stagnation in recycling rates With the same recovery capacity larger portion of waste for landfilling New tough proposal for the Directive Recovery 60 % Recycling 22.5 %
FTA impact on policy - USA
FDA – Food and drugs administration Focus on application of recycled materials for new bottles Toxicant not to exceed 0.5 ppb Technological innovation Product design Recycling processes
FTA impact on technological innovation
Forecasts concerning consumption and waste increase Innovations in recycling - Innovated technologies for mechanical and chemical recycling - Designing products more suitable for recycling - New applications for recycled materials Sustainability condition
FTA impact on technological innovation
Forecasts concerning market saturations Innovations for virgin products Better oxygen-barrier properties Hot filling Sophisticated product designs
FTA impact on technological innovation in various business environments
Large petrochemical complexes – innovations related to chemical and thermal decomposition of material Manufacturing companies – innovations related to savings in materials for bottle production SMEs – innovations related to product design and new applications
Impact on developing countries
Raising environmental awareness Different pathways Rise in investments in capacities in various developing countries
PET New applic.
Market growth Production Summary Legislation FTA Recovery Manufacture Technol. innovation
Conclusions Economy
All dimension are crucial
Technology Social issues PET FTA Environment
Future advancement of FTA deeper understanding of qualitative information, their proper interpretation and integration into the process