Transcript Diapositiva 1

3° ICTP Workshop
“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”
May 29 – June 9
3° ICTP Workshop on
“The Theory and Use of Regional
Climate Models”
May 29 – June 9 2006
CHyM: an operational distributed
hydrological model
using different data sources
Marco Verdecchia
CETEMPS, Physics Department, University of L‘Aquila
http://cetemps.aquila.infn.it
3° ICTP Workshop
“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”
May 29 – June 9
CHyM: an operational distributed
hydrological model
using different data sources
Developed by:
Since 2002
•It runs in any geographical domain with any resolution
•It runs in any (?) unix platforms
•It does not use any licensed software
•Different kind of rain data are assimilated
3° ICTP Workshop
“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”
May 29 – June 9
CHyM: an operational distributed
hydrological model
using different data sources
Two reasons for NOT using CHYM:
• NOT easy to use
(CHyM is a NSE2USE Model)
• Documentation is not (yet) available
3° ICTP Workshop
“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”
May 29 – June 9
CHyM: an operational distributed
hydrological model
using different data sources
Outline
• Description of the model
• Algorithms
Generating streamflow network
Building prec. fields with diff. data
• Physical processes
• Applications
3° ICTP Workshop
“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”
May 29 – June 9
CHyM: an operational distributed
hydrological model
using different data sources
Why to develop a new Hydrological Model?
•It has been thought for operational
purposes
•It is a good “exercise”
3° ICTP Workshop
“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”
May 29 – June 9
CHyM: an operational distributed
hydrological model
using different data sources
Step 1: generating streamflow network from DEM
DEM matrix for the selected domain and resolution is generated
Flow direction matrix is computed
Validation
“Pits” and singularities are corrected
3° ICTP Workshop
“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”
May 29 – June 9
DEM is available with a
resolution of 300 m
For each cell the slope is
computed as:
Max slope
Runoff direction
3° ICTP Workshop
“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”
May 29 – June 9
CHyM: Drainage network test
3° ICTP Workshop
“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”
May 29 – June 9
CHyM: Drainage network test
3° ICTP Workshop
“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”
May 29 – June 9
A Cellular Automata definition
 A cellular automaton is a discrete dynamical system
 Space, time and states of the system are discrete
quantities
 Each point in a regular spatial lattice, called a cell, can
have anyone of a finite number of states
 The state of the cells in the lattice are updated
according to a local rule
 All cells on the lattice are updated synchronously
3° ICTP Workshop
“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”
May 29 – June 9
A Cellular Automata application
Life rules by Chris G. Langton
The status of each CA can be ON or OFF
If more than 3 CA in the neighborhood are ON CA became OFF
If less than 2 CA in the neighborhood are ON, CA became OFF
Otherwise CA became ON
3° ICTP Workshop
“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”
May 29 – June 9
CA for CHyM applications
 CHyM grid is considered an aggregate of cellular automata
 The status of a cell corresponds to the value of a
CHyM matrix (DEM)
 The state of the cells in the lattice is updated according
to following rule
 8


hi  hi      j (h j  hi ) 
 j

 All cells on the lattice are updated synchronously
 Update ends when flow scheme is OK
3° ICTP Workshop
“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”
May 29 – June 9
CHyM: Recipe for DEM pit correction
•Smooth DEM using CA rules until FD can be
obtained for all the cells
•Generate streamflow network using smoothed DEM
•Use “true” DEM and modify ONLY the cells draining
toward an higher cell
3° ICTP Workshop
“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”
May 29 – June 9
CHyM: Drainage network test
3° ICTP Workshop
“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”
May 29 – June 9
CHyM: an operational distributed
hydrological model
using different data sources
3° ICTP Workshop
“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”
May 29 – June 9
3° ICTP Workshop
“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”
May 29 – June 9
CHyM: DEM pit correction
3° ICTP Workshop
“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”
May 29 – June 9
CHyM: DEM pit correction
3° ICTP Workshop
“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”
May 29 – June 9
CHyM: DEM pit correction
3° ICTP Workshop
“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”
May 29 – June 9
CHyM: Examples of
Drainage Network Extraction
3° ICTP Workshop
“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”
May 29 – June 9
CHyM: the Rolling Stones Algorithm (RSA)
1. Starting from each cell a stone rolls up to the
river‘s mouth
2. Each time that the stone goes through one cell for
this cell a counter is incremented by 1
3. If a quantity A is associated to each stone where A
is equivalent to the surface where the stone was at
the beginning, for each cell it can be computed the
upstream drained surface
4. If a quantity R is associated to each stone where R
is equivalent to the precipitation where the stone was
at the beginning, for each cell it can be computed the
upstream drained precipitation
N
A
i 1
i
N
R
i 1
i
3° ICTP Workshop
“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”
May 29 – June 9
CHyM: the Rolling Stones Algorithm (RSA)
3° ICTP Workshop
“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”
May 29 – June 9
Step 2: Building Precipitation Fields using
different Data Sources
Radar
Gauge data
time
Museo
Archive
MM5 analysis
Satellite
estimations
MM5 Forecast
Now
3° ICTP Workshop
“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”
May 29 – June 9
CHyM rain data sources: Gauge measurements
3° ICTP Workshop
“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”
May 29 – June 9
CHyM rain data sources: Radar estimates
CHyM rain data sources: NERETIR
3° ICTP Workshop
“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”
May 29 – June 9
NERETIR
NEural
Rainfall
Estimation
from
Termal
InfraRed
3° ICTP Workshop
“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”
May 29 – June 9
CHyM rain data sources: MM5
MM5 Meteorological Model
3° ICTP Workshop
“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”
May 29 – June 9
Step 2: Building Precipitation Fields using
different Data Sources
Module 1
Module 2
Module 3
Module n
•Define subdomain
•Fill cells corresponding to rain gauges
•Fill subdomain matrix – Cr. Formula
•Smooth subdomain matrix using CA
algorithm
3° ICTP Workshop
“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”
May 29 – June 9
CA for CHyM applications
 CHyM grid is considered an aggregate of cellular automata
 The status of a cell corresponds to the value of a CHyM matrix
(RAIN)
(DEM)
 The state of the cells in the lattice is updated according
 8

to following rule

hi  hi      j (h j  hi ) 
 j

But cells corresponding to rain gauges or defined in a previous
Module are not updated
 All cells on the lattice are updated synchronously
 Update
Updateends
endswhen
whenaflow
stable
scheme
stateisisOK
reached
3° ICTP Workshop
“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”
May 29 – June 9
Observed rain
using Cressman
algorithm
Ri  
j
1  rij2 a 2
1 r
2
ij
a
2
Rj
rij≤ a
+ smoothing using
Cellular Automata
3° ICTP Workshop
“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”
May 29 – June 9
+ MUSEO module
using Cressman
+ CA
3° ICTP Workshop
“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”
May 29 – June 9
In sequence …
3° ICTP Workshop
“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”
May 29 – June 9
CHyM Rain field sources:
an example
3° ICTP Workshop
“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”
May 29 – June 9
CHyM: an operational distributed
hydrological model
using different data sources
For each cell the simulated processes are:
Runoff
Evapotraspiration
Infiltration
Rainfall
3° ICTP Workshop
“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”
May 29 – June 9
CHyM: Infiltration
Surface Runoff
Soil moisture
storage
Infiltration
Interflow
Deep percolation
3° ICTP Workshop
“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”
May 29 – June 9
CHyM: Evapotraspiration
Thornthwaite Formula (Thornthwaite and Mather, 1995)
CHyM: Runoff
3° ICTP Workshop
“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”
May 29 – June 9
Continuity equation
A Q

 qc
t x
A= cross sectional area of the river
Q= flow rate of water discharge
qc= rain for length unit
Momentum equation
12
S R
Q
n
S= slope
23
A
1/R= wetter perimeter
n= Manning‘s roughness
coefficient
3° ICTP Workshop
“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”
May 29 – June 9
CHyM: A first application
N
R
i 1
N
i
A
i 1
i
 AI
Ri = rain
Ai = drained
surface
AI= Alarm Index
3° ICTP Workshop
“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”
May 29 – June 9
3° ICTP Workshop
“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”
May 29 – June 9
CHyM: an operational distributed
hydrological model
using different data sources
Soverato Flood
simulation
3° ICTP Workshop
“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”
May 29 – June 9
CHyM: an operational distributed
hydrological model
using different data sources
Val Canale flood
simulation
3° ICTP Workshop
“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”
May 29 – June 9
CHyM: simulation of
Aug 22-23 2005 event
Flood alert mapping using MM5 and CHyM
3° ICTP Workshop
“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”
May 29 – June 9
CHyM: simulation of
Aug 22-23 2005 event
Flood alert mapping using MM5 and CHyM
3° ICTP Workshop
“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”
May 29 – June 9
CHyM: simulation of
Aug 22-23 2005 event
3° ICTP Workshop
“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”
May 29 – June 9
Landslides prediction using CHyM.
(Very) Preliminary results
•Daily precipitation from
1958 to 2002
•Total drained rain in the
last N days
•Landslides occur when TDR-N
is greater than LT (N and LT
values to optimized)
3° ICTP Workshop
“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”
May 29 – June 9
CHyM: an operational distributed
hydrological model
using different data sources
3° ICTP Workshop
“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”
May 29 – June 9
CHyM: an operational distributed
hydrological model
using different data sources
3° ICTP Workshop
“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”
May 29 – June 9
Landslides prediction using CHyM.
(Very) Preliminary results
3° ICTP Workshop
“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”
May 29 – June 9
Landslides prediction using CHyM.
(Very) Preliminary results
3° ICTP Workshop
“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”
May 29 – June 9
Landslides prediction using CHyM.
(Very) Preliminary results
3° ICTP Workshop
“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”
May 29 – June 9
Landslides prediction using CHyM.
(Very) Preliminary results
3° ICTP Workshop
“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”
May 29 – June 9
CHyM: hydrological effects due to
Alpine Glaciers Melting
3° ICTP Workshop
“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”
May 29 – June 9
CHyM: an operational distributed
hydrological model
using different data sources
For further information about the model and related
literature please visit the URL:
http://cetemps.aquila.infn.it/chym/
3° ICTP Workshop
“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”
May 29 – June 9
CHyM: an operational distributed
hydrological model
using different data sources
3° ICTP Workshop
“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”
May 29 – June 9