Transcript Urban and Economic Geography

Geography 530
Urban and Economic Geography
Dr. Philip Coppack
JOR 609
How many?
Please take a piece of paper and
write down your guess.
Don’t be shy.
You’re advancing science 
TIME SPACE SCALES
The Space Economy
Questions we will explore:
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How are economic activities organized in space?
What patterns exist in space and time?
What processes giving rise to those patterns?
Why are things where they are?
Who decides about supplying and demanding?
How do the various spatial scales interact?
How are ‘sectoral’ divisions structured?
STRUCTURE OF THE SPACE ECONOMY
The Space Economy
Methods stuff we will look at:
• Economic classification systems
• National and international data sources
• Common economic analysis methods:
• Index numbers
• Ratios and quotients
• Current and constant dollar conversions
• Gompertz curves
• Game theory
and decision trees
STRUCTURE OF THE SPACE ECONOMY
Course Material
WEBSITE ADDRESS
www.geography.ryerson.ca/coppack/geo530
***THIS IS NOT A BLACKBOARD SITE***
COURSE MECHANICS
www.geography.ryerson.ca/coppack/geo530
COURSE EVALUATION:
Paper proposal
Paper final draft
In-class MC (5x10%)
20% (due dates see schedule)
30% (due dates see schedule below)
50% (due dates see schedule below)
There is no final exam for this course.
NOTE: Quizzes will be run in the first 50 minutes of the class hour
and will be comprised of 40 multiple choice/short answer
questions.
If you miss a quiz, you will lose the grade for it – no exceptions,
otherwise you will be swamped.
COURSE MECHANICS
www.geography.ryerson.ca/coppack/geo530
Course Project
RESEARCH PROPOSAL (20%)
You will write a 3 page proposal exploring a research
topic in Economic Geography.
RESEARCH PAPER (30%)
You will use that proposal to write a 5 page research
paper, using the corrected proposal as the first 3 pages.
Both parts follow a very explicit rubric that is detailed
in the document on the website.
Examples of good and poor efforts from the past will
be provided.
COURSE MECHANICS
www.geography.ryerson.ca/coppack/geo530
COURSE OUTLINE
AND
COURSE PROJECT
(Please Read It All)
COURSE MECHANICS
www.geography.ryerson.ca/coppack/geo530
Introduction Stuff
Date
Lectures
1
Introduction.
Jan 14th Course mechanics.
The Space Economy – definition and structure
Modeling: what it is and how it is used.
Landscapes: homogeneity, isotropy and reality(ies).
COURSE MECHANICS
Assignments
Distribute
proposal-paper
assignment
with course
outline.
Economic Process Topics
2
Engines of Growth and Change: Demographics and Urbanisation.
Jan 21st Population growth, fertility, survival, dependency.
Population structure: transition and pyramids.
Renaissance, mercantilism, and revolution.
Cities as points of socio-economic transformation.
Urban growth versus urbanization.
Demographic transition, urbanization, and economic transformation.
3
Economic Change and Economic Base Theory
Jan 28th Macroeconomic Eras – two flavours: revolutions and capital.
Globalisation since 1945.
Colonialisation and decolonialisation.
The fundamental structure of geographic economies.
Basic and non-basic economic activities.
The B/NB ratio and the multiplier concept.
4
Cycles, Agglomeration and Scale.
Feb 11th Booms, busts and the financial/banking system.
Economic cycles: Kondratieff, Keynes, inventory and product.
Internal scale economies.
External scale economies.
Spatial demand and supply.
Spatial demand curves and surfaces.
Urban agglomeration.
COURSE MECHANICS
Structure of the firm.
Quiz #1
Lectures 1,2
www.geography.ryerson.ca/coppack/geo530
Data and Methods of Analysis
5
Economic Classifications, Data, Methods, Decision Making,
Feb 11th Game Theory.
Economic indicators, indices, data, and sources.
Current and constant dollars.
Location quotients.
Shift-share analysis.
Gini coefficients, Lorenz and other curves.
Productivity, capacity utilisation, and input-output.
Relative and absolute change, rates and levels of change.
Decision Making and Perception.
Decision Theory and Probability.
Decision Trees, and Game Theory.
Feb 16TH
STUDY WEEK
COURSE MECHANICS
Quiz #2
Lectures 3,4
Sectors of the Economy
6
Feb 25th
Agricultural, Resource Location, Urban Economics and Land Use.
Von Thunen and the concept of bid rent.
Models of urban structure - an overview.
Alonso and urban economic rent theory.
Peak value intersections.
The economics of urban slums.
The economics of urban sprawl.
Zimmerman's Axiom: resources aren't, they become – economics of
resource commodities.
7
Manufacturing: from weight watching to getting satisfaction.
Mar 4th Weber and the weight loss hypothesis: maximization approaches.
Losch and the pursuit of profit as a locational determinant: optimization
approaches.
Smith and the margins of profitability: behavioral approaches.
Simon and satisficing: decision making approaches.
Model of change.
Industrialisation, Deindustrialisation, Industrial restructuring. Concepts
and definitions.
Measuring degree and type of change.
8
Retail and Services Location.
Mar 11th Christaller and central place theory: range, threshold, K patterns.
Distance decay and the economics of urban demand and supply.
Breakpoint and gravity models.
Office location.
COURSE MECHANICS
The locational determinants of public sector services.
Proposal due
Quiz #3
Lectures 5,6
Return
proposal
www.geography.ryerson.ca/coppack/geo530
Movement Topics
9
Interaction and Time Space
Quiz #4
Mar 18th Arrow of time.
Lectures 7,8
Time-space cubes, prisms and paths.
Discretionary and obligatory events.
Time-space convergence.
Proxemics and social distance.
Interaction
Interaction models: gravity & distance decay.
10
Transportation and Diffusion.
Final Paper
Mar 25th Networks.
Due
Network analysis tools.
Transportation Economics.
Modes of transportation.
The cost of traffic jams.
Diffusion: what it is.
Modelling diffusion – Hagerstrand.
NOTE: FRIDAY MARCH 27th IS THE LAST DATE TO DROP COURSES WITHOUT ACADEMIC
PENALTY. IT IS BETTER TO DROP A COURSE THAN TO FAIL A COURSE. REMEMBER: ‘F’ IS
COURSE
MECHANICS
FOREVER.
www.geography.ryerson.ca/coppack/geo530
Growth and Development Topics
11
Economic Growth & Regional Development:
April 1st Defining growth & development.
Heartland hinterland.
Development models.
Circular and cumulative causation.
The Canadian experience.
12
Course wrap-up
April 8th
Quiz #5
Lectures 9,10
The on-line Faculty Course Survey will be available
between March 20th and March 30th 2015.
COURSE MECHANICS
The Space Economy
A Definition
"... a system by which people seek to satisfy
their wants from the means of production
at their disposal, in the face of spatial
disparity between these wants and the
resources necessary for their satisfaction.“
Lloyd & Dicken, Location In Space, 1977, p65.
STRUCTURE OF THE SPACE ECONOMY
The Space Economy
A Definition
Implicit in this definition are concepts such as:
• Demand
• Supply
• The Production System
Macro & Micro Economic Constructs:
• marginality
• elasticity
• opportunity costs
• scale economies
• comparative cost advantage
• The Spatial System
• The Geographic System
• Decision Making
• Distance DecaySTRUCTURE OF THE SPACE ECONOMY
The Space Economy
The Production Network
INPUTS
of materials
and nonmaterials
(raw materials,
labour, land,
capital,
enterprise)
After Peter Dicken, Global Shift.
TRANSFORMATION
of inputs into
semi finished or
finished
products or
services
DISTRIBUTION
of those goods
and services
to where they
are demanded
(i.e.
movement
channels)
STRUCTURE OF THE SPACE ECONOMY
CONSUMPTION
of goods and
services by
interim and end
consumers (i.e.
markets)
The Space Economy
The Technology & Spatial Contexts
Technology/research and development
(product design, process technology)
INPUTS
TRANSFORMATION
DISTRIBUTION
CONSUMPTION
Logistic services
(movement of materials, products, people, information
across space; technology dependent)
After Peter Dicken, Global Shift.
STRUCTURE OF THE SPACE ECONOMY
The Space Economy
The Control & Authority Contexts
FINANCIAL SYSTEM
Technology/research and development
(product design, process technology)
INPUTS
TRANSFORMATION
DISTRIBUTION
CONSUMPTION
Logistic services
(movement of materials, products, people, information across space;
technology dependence)
REGULATION, COORDINATION, CONTROL SYSTEM
After Peter Dicken, Global Shift.
STRUCTURE OF THE SPACE ECONOMY
The Space Economy
The Geographic Context
SOCIO-CULTURAL SYSTEM
FINANCIAL SYSTEM
Technology/research and development
(product design, process technology)
INPUTS
TRANSFORMATION
DISTRIBUTION
CONSUMPTION
Logistic services
(movement of materials, products, people, information and technology)
REGULATION, COORDINATION, CONTROL SYSTEM
ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEM
STRUCTURE OF THE SPACE ECONOMY
After Peter Dicken, Global Shift.
The Space Economy
The Nature of Service Inputs to the Production Process
UPSTREAM INPUTS
Service inputs prior
to the production
process; e.g.
feasibility studies,
finance/venture
capital, product
conception &
design, R&D,
market research.
After Peter Dicken, Global Shift.
ONSTREAM PRODUCTION INPUTS
Services specific to the goods
production process itself; e.g. quality
control, equipment, leasing, logistics
of supply, maintenance, repair.
I  T  D  C
ONSTREAM PARALLEL INPUTS
Service inputs necessary for the
operation of any type of firm; e.g.
accounting, legal, HR functions,
transportation, communications, IT,
insurance, finance, real estate,
security,
custodial,
STRUCTURE
OF THE SPACEcatering.
ECONOMY
DOWNSTREAM
INPUTS
Service inputs post
production
necessary to final
sales; e.g.
advertising,
distribution,
transportation,
repairs,
maintenance, client
training.
Linkages in the Space Economy
Types:
Vertical: The input and output ends of a production chain.
Horizontal: Between different products – e.g. pharma companies
start making cleaning products.
Lateral: Between similar products – e.g. motorcycle companies
start making cars.
Control:
Owned
Affiliated
Independent
Foreign
Direct
Investment
2013
=
US$1.3 trillion
… or at least that’s one version of the story.
STRUCTURE OF THE SPACE ECONOMY
Linear System + Finite World = Problems
Resource Depletion
Environmental Degradation
Income Inequality
Solutions?
Exploit Others
Others “Develop”
Apply Technology Fixes
But the linear system in a finite world still exists.
STRUCTURE OF THE SPACE ECONOMY
Supposedly represents you
Mediates
STRUCTURE OF THE SPACE ECONOMY
Represents stockholders
Check it out:
http://storyofstuff.org/movies/story-of-stuff/
STRUCTURE OF THE SPACE ECONOMY
Globalisation and the Territorial Economic System
A.
Economic System
Economic Sectors:
Primary (Resources)
Secondary (Manufacturing)
Tertiary (Services)
P
S
T
Firms:
Large firms (TNCs)
Medium Firms (regional)
Small firms (local)
THEMES - GLOBAL SYSTEM
Globalisation and the Territorial Economic System
B.
Territorial System
Regions
Nations
Sector based trading blocs
Regional based trading blocs
Regionally isolated nations
Regionally integrated nations
Globally isolated nations
THEMES - GLOBAL SYSTEM
Globalisation and the Territorial Economic System
C.
The complexity of the
global economic and
territorial system.
Some national
economies are only
partly integrated, or
depend solely on
one economic sector
P
S
T
Flows of goods and especially
capital are less restricted in the
economic system than they are
across the territorial system
Flashpoints exist at the
intersections of economy
with territory. THEMES - GLOBAL SYSTEM
The Production Process and the Physical Environment
INPUTS FROM ENVIRONMENT
Local and global environment as supplier of
resources and energy.
EXTRACTION
PROCESSING
FABRICATION
CONSUMPTION
Recycled products
Non-productive output
Local and global environment Local and global environment
EXTERNALITIES
as pollution dump.
as energy dump.
OUTPUTS TO ENVIRONMENT
Source: After Dicken 2003, p26
STRUCTURE OF THE SPACE ECONOMY
Globalisation: Changes in the Social, Economic and Cultural Systems
Changes to transportation and
communications technology as goods and
people need to be moved and information
and money exchanged.
PROCESSING
EXTRACTION
Changes to space as
subsistence activities
become cash based
traded activities.
FABRICATION
Changes to space as
industrial development
and demographic change
drives urbanization.
Changes to economic
system as capitalism begins,
a wage economy develops,
and employment changes.
CONSUMPTION
Changes to cultural
attitudes as
consumption drives
behaviour through
demonstration effect
and product
homogenization.
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TIME SPACE SCALES
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Some numbers to set the stage
Global GDP in current dollars, 2012 = $72.9 trillion.
Global market capitalisation 2012 = $53.2 trillion.
U.S. GDP in current dollars, 2012 = $16.2 trillion (22%).
U.S. market capitalisation 2012 = $18.7 trillion (35%).
Canada GDP in current dollars, 2012 = $1.8 trillion (2.4%).
Canada market capitalisation 2012 = $2.0 trillion (3.7%).
Ontario GDP in current dollars, 2013 = $695 billion (0.95%).
Cost of 2008 financial crisis by 2012 = $22 trillion (US alone).
33% of global capitalization value lost = $17.6 trillion.
Bill Gates current net worth = $82 billion
Sources: http://www.gao.gov/assets/660/651322.pdf. http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/world-development-indicators.
We’ll have lots of fun looking at the
ins and outs of the 2008 crisis in two
weeks, including…
… wait for it …
the fact that we are doing the very
same thing again, right now.
Sad but true.
Modelling
No, not this (not quite anyway) though it is about
idealized distortions of reality!
MODELLING
Modelling
Spatial approach to geography is based on modelling.
Modelling attempts to understand the world by
abstracting it using assumptions.
That is, it attempts to understand real world
complexity by simplifying it.
Once simplified, modelling attempts to find the
general rules of behaviour underlying the spatial
patterns.
By way of illustration, let’s go to the beach…
MODELLING
Modelling
A day at the beach
st level of abstraction
1
short
blonde
Photo = copious detail, but much thrown out
single
ill
old
smart
not-so-good looking
nasty
poor
healthy
rich
blue suits
good looking
tall
extrovert
nice
introvert
naughty
big female
lying-on-stomach
small
obese
young
male
not-so-smart 
red suits
MODELLING
skinny
sitting
couples
thin
Modelling
A day at the beach
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4th level of abstraction
mathematical function – a density surface
d = q/v
Density = quantity/volume
How many points per unit area
are encompassed by an isoline?
MODELLING
Landscapes
Homogeneity & Isotropy
Heterogeneity & Reality
Sameness and Equality
By simplifying a landscape through modelling we:
Make it homogenous (the same) when it is
really heterogeneous (different across space).
We create artificially isotropic conditions (we
create a reality that isn’t really there).
MODELLING
Homogeneity & Isotropy
Important concepts:
Isotropic plane: a theoretical abstraction that says the
economic landscape is flat and equal in all physical
attributes.
Economic Person: a theoretical actor on the isotropic plane
who is equal in all attributes and behaviour.
Assumptions: a theoretical set of initial conditions that
govern the behaviour of the actors on the isotropic plane.
Because modelling uses such ‘unrealistic’ concepts to
understand complex reality, we must always test the
processes we discover through modelling, against the real
world.
MODELLING
Ode to Assumptions
In the land of Ceteris Paribus.
On the isotropic plain.
Lived a people with the same income,
same sex, same tastes, same name.
MODELLING
TIME, SPACE, AND TIME-SPACE
To be dealt with later in their own lecture:
Arrow of time
Time-space totality
Time-space prism
Time-space paths
Discretionary events
Obligatory events
Time-space convergence
Proxemics and social distance
But for now the big picture – time scales…
TIME AND SPACE SCALE
The Sheer Scale of Geologic Time
The Pliocene
0.1%
(uh oh)
The Cenozoic
1.5%
(dinos leave the party)
The Phanerozoic
12%*
(party time!)
The Precambrian
88%
(not much happening)
Homo
supersizerous
The Age of the Earth 4.6 billion years - 100%
*includes Cenozoic and Pliocene.
TIME AND SPACE SCALE
Human Time Scales
Bulk of Human History = 99.9%
4mya
2mya
≈≈
‘Civilized’ Human History = 0.02%
10,000ya
≈≈
250ya
Now
SCALE AND CHAOS
The big picture about being big and small:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Map scale
Orders of Magnitude
Koch Snowflake
Fractals
Coastline Paradox
Butterfly Effect
Chaos Theory
TIME AND SPACE SCALE
MAP SCALES
Maps cannot be to real size so scales are used to indicate the
relationship between the map and the area they represent.
Representative fraction (e.g. 1:50,000):
Means 1 unit on the map is equal to 50,000 units on the ground. It
doesn’t matter what units: e.g. 1 cm = 50,000 cm.
Lexical scale:
Means “in words”, so 1:50,000 could read as 1 inch equals 50,000
inches.
Bar scale:
A graphical device that can be used as a measuring rod to ascertain
what the scale on the map would be.
TIME AND SPACE SCALE
1.616X10-35m
Planck length
http://www.powersof10.com/
1X10-24m Diameter neutrino
1X10-18m Diameter of Up or Down quark
3X10-15m Diameter of helium nucleus
3X10-9m Width of DNA
2X104m Width of Toronto
1.5X1011m Earth distance to Sun
4.1X1016m Distance to nearest star
9.5X1020m Diameter of Milky Way
http:// htwins.net/scale2 /
Diameter of observable universe (co-moving)
TIME AND SPACE SCALE
8.8X1026m
The Koch Snowflake
THE KOCH SNOWFLAKE:
“To construct a Koch curve, begin with a triangle of sides of length
1.0. At the middle of each side, add a new triangle one-third the
size, and so on. The length of the boundary is 3 * 4/3 * 4/3 . . . ∞
Yet the area remains less than the area of a circle drawn around the
original triangle. Thus, an infinitely long line surrounds a finite
area!” (Gleick 1987: 99)
TIME AND SPACE SCALE
Mandelbrot and Fractals
TIME AND SPACE SCALE
Fractals and Nature
Real Conch
Mathematical
Conch
TIME AND SPACE SCALE
Eat your Fractals!
Romanesque Cauliflower
TIME AND SPACE SCALE
Fractals and ??
TIME AND SPACE SCALE
Nautilus Shell
Each follow a Fibonacci spiral
Romanesque cauliflower
TIME AND SPACE SCALE
Florida Panhandle
Stream order can be described using
the Fibonacci sequence and use the
Golden Ratio.
TIME AND SPACE SCALE
The Coastline Paradox
What is the length of the coastline of Britain?
12
200 km ‘fractal rulers’
2,400 km
28
100 km ‘fractal rulers’
2,800 km
68
50 km ‘fractal rulers’
3,400 km
The Ordnance Survey of Britain gives the “official” length of the
main island coastline as 17,819km.
TIME AND SPACE SCALE
Edward Lorenz and the butterfly effect
Predictability: Does the flap of a
butterfly's wings in Brazil set off a
tornado in Texas?
Presented before the American Association for the Advancement of
Science, December 29, 1972
TIME AND SPACE SCALE
Edward Lorenz and the butterfly effect
While running a climate model he found that a
1/10,000th of a percent change in the input
altered the model’s output dramatically.
He realized two things:
That small changes in inputs have large effects.
That since data are always slightly wrong, then
models can never be exact in their predictions.
From this came Chaos Theory.
TIME AND SPACE SCALE
Edward Lorenz and the butterfly effect.
Patterns in nature can look chaotic but
still have structure
Frontal weather systems
The cirrus in this photo is extremely high up in
the stratosphere but the cumulus is low down.
But both mark the approach of a weather front.
TIME AND SPACE SCALE
Edward Lorenz and the butterfly effect.
Patterns in nature can look organized but
be highly unpredictable in the details
Tropical Cyclones
Hurricane Isaac unexpectedly stalled just south of
New Orleans with rainfall equal or greater than
Katrina.
Hurricane Sandy hit New York, a rare and
unpredictable occurrence.
TIME AND SPACE SCALE
Edward Lorenz and the butterfly effect.
Patterns in nature can look organized and
be highly predictable in the details
Schooling fish.
The school’s volume is divided equally among the
number of fish it contains such that a given unit
of volume will always contain at least one fish –
but not a given individual fish.
That’s why predators round up fish into schools
and fish like to school.
TIME AND SPACE SCALE
Edward Lorenz and the butterfly effect.
Human patterns can also look chaotic but
be highly predictable in the details
The phantom traffic jam.
Someone touches their brake and two miles back
traffic comes to a halt.
That is the effect of a tiny change in forward
velocity being amplified by slow human reaction
time.
TIME AND SPACE SCALE
Edward Lorenz and the butterfly effect.
Human patterns can look chaotic, be
highly unpredictable in the details but
highly predictable as a whole.
The Wisdom Of The Crowd.
TIME AND SPACE SCALE
The Wisdom of the Crowd
The behaviour or opinions or decisions of individuals can be chaotic,
but the average behaviour of a crowd can be highly predictable and
surprisingly accurate.
Mathematician Marcus Du Sautoy’s j e l l y b e a n experiment:
5,410 jelly beans
160 guesses
Guesses ranged from 450 to 50,000
Average of all guesses was 5,414 – just 4 over the real number.
You can see this excerpt from his show The Code at
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=982E49KAMyw
I also recommend http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eimuAboXSdo.
SPACE the
SCALE patterns.
See if youTIME
canANDsee
Number of Popcorn Kernels
The Wisdom of the Crowd
Regression to the Mean Popcorn Experiment
10000
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
There are 39 guesses.
The mean of guesses is 5,933.
Note that the running mean approximates the actual
number closer and closer.
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39
Guess Number
Guesses
Number
Actual Mean
TIME AND SPACE SCALE
Running Mean