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CICESE and UABC
Participation in
NAME
Components:
- Oceanographic
- Atmospheric
- Land-Surface
2002
NAME Working Group
Puerto Vallarta, Mexico
November 2003
Tereza Cavazos
Dept. of Physical
Oceanography
Oceanographic
Component
The Role of Oceanic Processes
on the Gulf of California SST
Evolution During the NAME
MW Douglas - NSSL
AS Mascarenhas - UABC
MF Lavin – CICESE, Ens.
R Castro - UABC
E Beier – CICESE, La Paz
D Mitchell - DRI
P Guest - NPS
D Ivanova - DRI
JPL AVHRR Pathfinder Global 9 Km SST Climatology
HYPOTHESIS:
Northward advance of the monsoon seems to be
related to the poleward progression of the 26oC
isotherm on the eastern side of the GC
http://podaac.jpl.nasa.gov/climatology
June
August
July
September
Observations:
TSW at the entrance of
the GC  Max in May-Jun
- Castro et al. 2000
- Castro 2001
- Mascarenhas et al. 2003
June to September monthly climatology of currents (cms-1) and
temperature (oC) in the 25-50 m layer of the POCM-4C model.
Modeling the
circulation
and heat fluxes in
the GC
(G. Marinone & A.
Parés)
Surface Wind
Climatology
Using QuikScat
(G. Marinone & A.
Parés)
Scientific Question
What is the relative importance of oceanic
heat advection and local-air sea fluxes in
controlling the SST evolution during the
NAM in the Gulf of California ?
Oceanographic
Component
The Role of Oceanic Processes on
the Gulf of California SST Evolution
During the NAME
Proposed NAME
Oceanographic Cruises
- Observing stations along the blue lines
- CTD every 10 km and down to 1000m
- Atmospheric soundings 4/day
- Continuous meteorological, ADCP and
SST data will be collected throughout
the cruises
-The coastal meteorological stations and
ADCP+MicroCAT moorings will be
deployed at both sides of the GC
- Large dots: possible deployment sites
for surface satellite-tracked drifters
Atmospheric
Component
Convective Patterns Over
Baja California
(LM Farfán – CICESE, La Paz)
Objective 1:
Determine characteristics of convective phenomena
- GOES satellite imagery
- Surface and upper-air observations
- Mesoscale model simulations (MM5)
Objective 2: Study landfall tracks in Baja California
- Large-scale conditions and dynamic
mechanisms
- Changes in structure due to storm
interaction with the peninsula
- Determine patterns of wind/rainfall
distribution to identify high-risk areas
Hurricane Marty: 12UTC 22 September 2003
D. Lettenmaier,
T. Cavazos &
C. Zhu
Land-surface hydrologic predictability in the
NAM region using a derived long-term data set
Science Question
1
To what extent do soil moisture and snow
anomalies affect the evolution of the NAM?
Tier 3
Objectives
Extend retrospective LDAS data set
to cover Tiers 1, 2 and 3 for ~ 50 yrs
Using the derived LDAS, undertake
predictability studies to investigate the
role of land-surface feedbacks in the
monsoon region
Study Domain
Current soil moisture data
(LDAS; 1950-97): Derived from a
variable infiltration capacity (VIC)
model with 1/8º resolution (Maurer
et al. 2002).
Winter Precipitation-monsoon rainfall
feedback hypothesis
Higher (lower) winter
precipitation
& spring snowpack
Weak (strong) monsoon
More (less) spring &
early summer soil
moisture
Lower (higher) spring &
early summer surface
temperature
Precipitation Regions
Monsoon West
Monsoon South
Monsoon North
Monsoon East
Wet Monsoon
DRY
Dry Monsoon
WET
JFM Precipitation in
extreme monsoon years
Snow
Apr-May Soil Moisture
in extreme monsoon
years
DRY
WET
Soil moisture anomalies persist from spring
until June
Dry
Wet
What is the feedback to the atmosphere ?
Correlation
May-Jun SWE and
Surface temperature (Ts)
(Negative relationship)
Correlation
June Ts vs July Precipitation
Heterogeneous SVD
JAS Z500 vs JAS Precipitation
?
Dry
Heterogeneous SVD
JFM SST vs JAS Precipitation
-0.4
-0.4
0.4
Negative PDO  Dry monsoon
SVD: Z500 (AMJ) & PPT (JAS)
DRY
WET
JAS Pan: NWMex & AZ
Mode 1: Z500 (AMJ)
Conclusions
Higher (lower)
winter
Atmospheric
connection
:
precipitation
Winter SSTan and
& spring snowpack
Spring Z500 circulation
Weak (strong) monsoon
More (less) spring &
early summer soil
moisture
Lower (higher) spring &
early summer surface
temperature
Especially During Extreme Years